<p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 2.63%)(GOOGL 2.75%) 现在看起来是一个很好的投资机会，如果你有耐心持有的话。作为字母表的股东，现在有很多理由让人感到恐慌，这也是该股票如此便宜的原因。</p>
<p>但是如果你能保持长期的视角（三到五年），你会意识到字母表的股票现在被显著低估，可能是一个在这个时间段内能够带来丰厚利润的绝佳价值选择。</p>
<h2>字母表面临许多负面新闻的困扰</h2>
<p>字母表主要是一家广告公司，因为它在许多平台上处理广告，包括谷歌、YouTube 和 Android。然而，这使得字母表最近陷入了麻烦。</p>
<p>在两个独立的案件中，美国地区法官裁定字母表运营着两种非法垄断：一种是在其网页浏览器（谷歌浏览器）中，另一种是在其广告交易所中。虽然这令人担忧，但对于字母表的股东来说，这并不是世界末日。</p>
<p>字母表仍然可以通过多个法院进行上诉，并且很可能这个案件将在几年内进入最高法院。这些上诉需要时间，因此字母表的分拆不会在短期内发生。因此，投资者需要关注现在的业务状况，因为没有人知道一个被拆分的字母表会是什么样子，或者是否真的会发生。</p>
<p>即使你关注短期，关于字母表广告业务的强度也存在担忧。广告预算以周期性著称，如果公司认为经济即将下滑，预算往往会被削减。由于关税的影响，许多公司已经有这种心态，这可能会影响字母表的广告收入。</p>
<p>所以，尽管字母表的短期和长期前景看起来相当不明朗，我为什么还考虑现在购买股票呢？</p>
<h2>字母表的股票很少这么便宜</h2>
<p>仅仅因为股票便宜而购买从来不是一个好的理由。公司背后需要有一个可行的业务。字母表是一家如此主导的企业，以至于美国政府认为它需要被拆分，直到那发生之前，即使广告市场略显疲软，它仍将继续产生强劲的业绩。</p>
<p>尽管如此，该股票的估值水平在过去十年中很少见。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb8c5c4a4ac2984ddfacbab06acdb0e4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb8c5c4a4ac2984ddfacbab06acdb0e4.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>字母表的股票以前瞻性收益的 17 倍和历史收益的 19 倍交易，远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>，后者以 21.4 倍的历史收益和 19.8 倍的前瞻性收益交易。市场认为字母表是一只低于平均水平的股票，但考虑到其主导地位，这似乎是一个奇怪的价格标签。</p>
<p>此外，字母表在回购股票方面有着良好的记录，其低廉的价格意味着股票回购将更加有效。这可能在短期内推动每股收益（EPS）增长，使得该股票在每股收益方面能够实现超越市场的增长，即使其收入在广告预算减少的情况下难以增长。</p>
<p>字母表的业务远比市场给予的评价要强；否则，美国政府（以及全球各国政府）不会呼吁对其进行拆分。即使字母表被拆分，这些拆分往往会创造价值，因为投资者会对业务有更清晰的了解。因此，无论未来几年字母表发生什么情况，你今天的投资都不可能归零。</p>
<p>虽然在当前市场状态下这有点反向选择，但我认为字母表在未来三到五年仍然是一个强劲的股票选择，而你今天支付的价格与历史水平相比极其便宜。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>Alphabet 的股票目前被低估，交易价格为前瞻性收益的 17 倍，这使其成为长期投资者的强力买入。尽管对其广告业务和关于垄断行为的法律挑战存在担忧，但公司的市场主导地位和股票回购策略暗示了增长潜力。分析师认为，即使 Alphabet 面临拆分，也可能为投资者创造价值。总体而言，Alphabet 被视为未来三到五年内的稳健投资机会，尤其是考虑到其相对于历史水平的低价格</p>

<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 2.63%)(GOOGL 2.75%) looks like a strong bargain right now, if you have the patience to hold it. There are many reasons to be scared right now if you're an Alphabet shareholder, which is why the stock is so cheap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 2.63%)(GOOGL 2.75%) 现在看起来是一个很好的投资机会，如果你有耐心持有的话。作为字母表的股东，现在有很多理由让人感到恐慌，这也是该股票如此便宜的原因。</p>
</div><p>But if you can maintain a long-term outlook (three to five years), you can realize that Alphabet's stock is significantly undervalued right now and could be a fantastic value pick that makes a strong profit over that time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是如果你能保持长期的视角（三到五年），你会意识到字母表的股票现在被显著低估，可能是一个在这个时间段内能够带来丰厚利润的绝佳价值选择。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet has a lot of negative headlines working against it</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表面临许多负面新闻的困扰</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet is mainly an advertising company, as it handles ads on many of its platforms, including Google, YouTube, and Android. However, this got Alphabet into trouble recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表主要是一家广告公司，因为它在许多平台上处理广告，包括谷歌、YouTube 和 Android。然而，这使得字母表最近陷入了麻烦。</p>
</div><p>In two separate cases, a U.S. district judge has ruled that Alphabet operates two forms of illegal monopolies: one in its web browser (Google Chrome) and another in its ad exchange. While this is troubling, it isn't the end of the world for Alphabet shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在两个独立的案件中，美国地区法官裁定字母表运营着两种非法垄断：一种是在其网页浏览器（谷歌浏览器）中，另一种是在其广告交易所中。虽然这令人担忧，但对于字母表的股东来说，这并不是世界末日。</p>
</div><p>There are still multiple courts that Alphabet can appeal through, and it's highly likely that this case will end up at the Supreme Court in a few years. These appeals take time, so any breakup of Alphabet won't occur for years. As a result, investors need to focus on what the business looks like now, as nobody knows what a broken-up Alphabet would look like or if it will even happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表仍然可以通过多个法院进行上诉，并且很可能这个案件将在几年内进入最高法院。这些上诉需要时间，因此字母表的分拆不会在短期内发生。因此，投资者需要关注现在的业务状况，因为没有人知道一个被拆分的字母表会是什么样子，或者是否真的会发生。</p>
</div><p>Even if you focus on the short term, there are fears about the strength of Alphabet's ad business. Advertising budgets are notorious for being cyclical, and they often get reduced if companies believe there's an economic downturn coming. Thanks to the effects of tariffs, many companies already are in this mindset, and it could affect Alphabet's ad revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使你关注短期，关于字母表广告业务的强度也存在担忧。广告预算以周期性著称，如果公司认为经济即将下滑，预算往往会被削减。由于关税的影响，许多公司已经有这种心态，这可能会影响字母表的广告收入。</p>
</div><p>So, with Alphabet's short-term and long-term outlook looking rather cloudy, why am I even considering buying shares right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，尽管字母表的短期和长期前景看起来相当不明朗，我为什么还考虑现在购买股票呢？</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's stock has rarely been this cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表的股票很少这么便宜</h2>
</div><p>Buying a stock solely because it's cheap is never a good reason. There needs to be a functional business behind the company. Alphabet is such a dominant business that the U.S. government believes it needs to be broken up, and until that happens, it will continue to produce strong results even if the ad market is a bit dampened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅仅因为股票便宜而购买从来不是一个好的理由。公司背后需要有一个可行的业务。字母表是一家如此主导的企业，以至于美国政府认为它需要被拆分，直到那发生之前，即使广告市场略显疲软，它仍将继续产生强劲的业绩。</p>
</div><p>Despite this, the stock trades for valuation levels that have seldom been seen over the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，该股票的估值水平在过去十年中很少见。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb8c5c4a4ac2984ddfacbab06acdb0e4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eb8c5c4a4ac2984ddfacbab06acdb0e4.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>At just 17 times forward earnings and 19 times trailing earnings, Alphabet's stock is far cheaper than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, which trades for 21.4 times trailing earnings and 19.8 times forward earnings. The market states that Alphabet is a below-average stock, but considering its dominance, this seems like an odd price tag for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的股票以前瞻性收益的 17 倍和历史收益的 19 倍交易，远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>，后者以 21.4 倍的历史收益和 19.8 倍的前瞻性收益交易。市场认为字母表是一只低于平均水平的股票，但考虑到其主导地位，这似乎是一个奇怪的价格标签。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Alphabet has a strong track record of repurchasing shares, and its cheap price means that share repurchases will be more effective. This could boost earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in the short term, allowing the stock to put up market-beating growth from an EPS standpoint, even if its revenue struggles to grow as ad budgets get reduced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，字母表在回购股票方面有着良好的记录，其低廉的价格意味着股票回购将更加有效。这可能在短期内推动每股收益（EPS）增长，使得该股票在每股收益方面能够实现超越市场的增长，即使其收入在广告预算减少的情况下难以增长。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet is a much stronger business than the markets give it credit for; otherwise, the U.S. government (and governments worldwide) wouldn't be calling for it to be broken up. Even if Alphabet gets broken up, these breakups tend to create value because investors receive further clarity into the business. So, regardless of what happens with Alphabet a few years down the road, the investment you make today has no chance of going to zero.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的业务远比市场给予的评价要强；否则，美国政府（以及全球各国政府）不会呼吁对其进行拆分。即使字母表被拆分，这些拆分往往会创造价值，因为投资者会对业务有更清晰的了解。因此，无论未来几年字母表发生什么情况，你今天的投资都不可能归零。</p>
</div><p>Although it's a bit of a contrary pick for the current market state, I think Alphabet is still a strong stock pick for the next three to five years, and the price tag you're paying today is dirt cheap compared to historical levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然在当前市场状态下这有点反向选择，但我认为字母表在未来三到五年仍然是一个强劲的股票选择，而你今天支付的价格与历史水平相比极其便宜。</p>
</div>

A Once-in-a-Decade Opportunity: Alphabet Stock Looks Like an Incredible Buy Right Now

- Alphabet 股票目前被认为是一个强有力的投资选择。  
- 尽管面临广告业务的挑战和法律问题，股票估值仍然较低。  
- 长期持有可能带来可观的收益，且股价相对历史水平便宜。

十年一遇的机会：Alphabet 股票现在看起来是一个绝佳的买入时机