<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 3.31%) 去年实现了 6380 亿美元的销售额，其中在线市场占据了其收入的主要部分。这是其业务的核心部分，但还有许多其他低成本市场和网站在争夺消费者。亚马逊在大多数情况下一直在获胜——它是全球最有价值的公司之一，市值接近 2 万亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，关税为这家电子商务巨头引入了新的风险。虽然关税可能有助于抵御来自海外的低价竞争对手，但亚马逊市场上的许多卖家也将不得不提高价格以抵消关税的影响。那么，关税真的会伤害亚马逊的业务，还是最终会帮助公司？</p>
<h2>为什么关税可能会帮助亚马逊</h2>
<p>亚马逊的一个重大好处是，随着关税的施加——特别是针对中国，那里有很多来自廉价在线零售商的竞争——它们可能会大幅减少竞争定价压力。如果消费者无法从 Temu（由 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 拥有）或 Shein 购买超便宜的产品，那么这可能会导致更多人选择在亚马逊的市场上购物。</p>
<p>去年，为了抵御来自这些廉价网站的竞争，亚马逊推出了 “亚马逊特卖”——一个提供低价商品的项目，但以较慢的运输速度为代价。虽然像 Shein 和 Temu 这样的网站提供更低的价格，但消费者通常需要对他们的购买更加耐心；Temu 通常需要超过五天才能发货。</p>
<p>Temu 和 Shein 已经开始警告客户，由于关税，他们的价格将会上涨。这可能会导致他们网站上的商品价格与亚马逊之间的差距缩小，并可能消除亚马逊特卖的必要性。</p>
<h2>为什么关税可能会伤害亚马逊</h2>
<p>亚马逊不会在任何涉及中国的关税战争中全身而退，因为近一半的卖家都在中国。许多卖家也在说与 Temu 和 Shein 相同的事情：他们将不得不因关税而提高价格。</p>
<p>如果亚马逊平台上的价格普遍上涨，或者卖家别无选择只能完全退出，这可能会大幅降低该网站对消费者的吸引力；这可能会导致他们回到实体店，包括美元商店或当地的 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>。鉴于亚马逊在其市场上依赖许多卖家以提供多样化的产品，亚马逊可能在销售增长方面面临困难。</p>
<p>亚马逊已经对 2025 年第一季度的指引持谨慎态度，预计销售增长仅为 5% 到 9%，与去年同期相比。关税可能导致未来几个季度的增长速度更慢。</p>
<h2>关税是否让亚马逊变得更好或更糟？</h2>
<p>像许多零售商一样，亚马逊需要经济状况良好才能使其业务蓬勃发展。关税并不能实现这一点，并且可能使公司快速增长变得更加困难。</p>
<p>然而，我仍然认为，凭借广泛的市场和便利的运输选项，亚马逊将继续成为许多在线购物者的首选。由于经济状况恶化，它可能会经历一些放缓，但如果 Temu 和 Shein 上的产品看起来不再那么便宜，可能会有更多人访问其网站。总体而言，亚马逊提供了更好的价值主张，这就是它最终能够获胜的原因。此外，虽然其市场对其业务至关重要，但公司大部分的运营利润确实来自亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services），即其云计算部门。亚马逊的强大多元化可以帮助它在这些充满挑战的市场条件下应对。</p>
<p>尽管公司今年可能面临逆风，但亚马逊在任何形式的疲软中仍然是一个优秀的买入机会，仅仅因为它拥有巨大的增长潜力。虽然这只电子商务股票今年下跌超过 20%，但我不怀疑它最终会在长期内恢复。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的业务面临关税的潜在影响，这可能对其运营产生帮助或伤害。虽然关税可能减少来自低成本竞争对手如 Temu 和 Shein 的竞争，但它们也可能迫使亚马逊的卖家提高价格，从而降低平台的吸引力。亚马逊对多样化卖家基础的依赖对其增长至关重要，任何价格上涨都可能使消费者回归实体店。尽管预计销售增长缓慢，亚马逊强大的市场地位和通过亚马逊网络服务的多元化可能帮助其应对这些挑战，使其在当前股价下跌的情况下仍然成为一个潜在的良好投资</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 3.31%) generated $638 billion in sales last year, with its online marketplace accounting for the bulk of its top line. It's a core part of its business, but there are also many other low-cost marketplaces and sites contending for consumers. Amazon has, for the most part, been winning -- it's one of the most valuable companies in the world, with a market cap close to $2 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 3.31%) 去年实现了 6380 亿美元的销售额，其中在线市场占据了其收入的主要部分。这是其业务的核心部分，但还有许多其他低成本市场和网站在争夺消费者。亚马逊在大多数情况下一直在获胜——它是全球最有价值的公司之一，市值接近 2 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs, however, introduce a new risk for the e-commerce giant. While they might help fend off low-priced rivals from overseas, many of the sellers on Amazon's marketplace will also have to raise prices to offset the impact of tariffs. So will tariffs actually hurt Amazon's business, or will they end up helping the company?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，关税为这家电子商务巨头引入了新的风险。虽然关税可能有助于抵御来自海外的低价竞争对手，但亚马逊市场上的许多卖家也将不得不提高价格以抵消关税的影响。那么，关税真的会伤害亚马逊的业务，还是最终会帮助公司？</p>
</div><h2>Why tariffs could help Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么关税可能会帮助亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>The big benefit for Amazon is that with tariffs imposed -- particularly on China, where there's a lot of competition from cheap online retailers -- they could drastically reduce competitive pricing pressures. If customers aren't able to buy ultracheap products from Temu (which is owned by <strong>PDD Holdings</strong>) or Shein, then that may result in more people buying from Amazon's marketplace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的一个重大好处是，随着关税的施加——特别是针对中国，那里有很多来自廉价在线零售商的竞争——它们可能会大幅减少竞争定价压力。如果消费者无法从 Temu（由 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 拥有）或 Shein 购买超便宜的产品，那么这可能会导致更多人选择在亚马逊的市场上购物。</p>
</div><p>Last year, in an effort to fend off competition from these cheaper sites, Amazon launched &#34;Amazon Haul&#34; -- a program that would offer lower-priced goods, but at the cost of slower shipping speeds. While sites such as Shein and Temu offer lower prices, consumers typically have to be much more patient with their purchases; Temu normally takes more than five days to ship an order.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，为了抵御来自这些廉价网站的竞争，亚马逊推出了 “亚马逊特卖”——一个提供低价商品的项目，但以较慢的运输速度为代价。虽然像 Shein 和 Temu 这样的网站提供更低的价格，但消费者通常需要对他们的购买更加耐心；Temu 通常需要超过五天才能发货。</p>
</div><p>Temu and Shein have already begun to warn customers that their prices will increase due to tariffs. That may result in less of a gap between the prices of goods on their websites and those on Amazon, and it may eliminate the need for Amazon Haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Temu 和 Shein 已经开始警告客户，由于关税，他们的价格将会上涨。这可能会导致他们网站上的商品价格与亚马逊之间的差距缩小，并可能消除亚马逊特卖的必要性。</p>
</div><h2>Why tariffs may hurt Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么关税可能会伤害亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>Amazon isn't going to emerge unscathed from any tariff war involving China, as close to half of its sellers are based there. And many of them are saying the same thing as Temu and Shein: They will have to raise their prices due to tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊不会在任何涉及中国的关税战争中全身而退，因为近一半的卖家都在中国。许多卖家也在说与 Temu 和 Shein 相同的事情：他们将不得不因关税而提高价格。</p>
</div><p>If there are widespread increases in prices on Amazon's platform, or sellers have no choice but to exit entirely, that could drastically reduce the appeal of the site for consumers; it may lead them back to brick-and-mortar stores, including dollar stores or their local <strong>Walmart</strong>. Given its strong dependence on having many sellers on its marketplace to offer a wide variety of products, Amazon may have a difficult time growing sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果亚马逊平台上的价格普遍上涨，或者卖家别无选择只能完全退出，这可能会大幅降低该网站对消费者的吸引力；这可能会导致他们回到实体店，包括美元商店或当地的 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>。鉴于亚马逊在其市场上依赖许多卖家以提供多样化的产品，亚马逊可能在销售增长方面面临困难。</p>
</div><p>Amazon was already projecting timid guidance for the first quarter of 2025, expecting sales growth of just 5% to 9% compared to the same period a year ago. Tariffs could result in an even slower rate of growth in future quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊已经对 2025 年第一季度的指引持谨慎态度，预计销售增长仅为 5% 到 9%，与去年同期相比。关税可能导致未来几个季度的增长速度更慢。</p>
</div><h2>Do tariffs make Amazon a better or worse buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关税是否让亚马逊变得更好或更糟？</h2>
</div><p>Like many retailers, Amazon needs the economy to be doing well for its business to be booming. Tariffs don't accomplish that, and they can make it a whole lot more challenging for the company to grow quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像许多零售商一样，亚马逊需要经济状况良好才能使其业务蓬勃发展。关税并不能实现这一点，并且可能使公司快速增长变得更加困难。</p>
</div><p>However, I still think that with a vast marketplace and convenient shipping options, Amazon will remain the go-to option for many people who are shopping online. It may experience a bit of a slowdown due to worsening economic conditions, but it may also have more people come to its site if products on Temu and Shein don't look so cheap anymore. Amazon offers a better value proposition overall, which is why it can win out in the end. Plus, while its marketplace is key to its business, the majority of the company's operating profit does come from Amazon Web Services, its cloud computing segment. Amazon's strong diversification can help it navigate through these challenging market conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我仍然认为，凭借广泛的市场和便利的运输选项，亚马逊将继续成为许多在线购物者的首选。由于经济状况恶化，它可能会经历一些放缓，但如果 Temu 和 Shein 上的产品看起来不再那么便宜，可能会有更多人访问其网站。总体而言，亚马逊提供了更好的价值主张，这就是它最终能够获胜的原因。此外，虽然其市场对其业务至关重要，但公司大部分的运营利润确实来自亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services），即其云计算部门。亚马逊的强大多元化可以帮助它在这些充满挑战的市场条件下应对。</p>
</div><p>Although the company will likely face headwinds this year, Amazon remains an excellent buy on any kind of weakness, simply because of how much growth potential it has. While the e-commerce stock is down more than 20% this year, I don't doubt that it will end up recovering in the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司今年可能面临逆风，但亚马逊在任何形式的疲软中仍然是一个优秀的买入机会，仅仅因为它拥有巨大的增长潜力。虽然这只电子商务股票今年下跌超过 20%，但我不怀疑它最终会在长期内恢复。</p>
</div>

Will Tariffs Help or Hurt Amazon's Business?

- 亚马逊去年销售额达 6380 亿美元，主要来自在线市场。  
- 关税可能导致亚马逊卖家提价，影响消费者吸引力。  
- 尽管面临挑战，亚马逊仍具备强大增长潜力。  

关税是会促进还是会损害亚马逊的业务发展？