<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.29%）的股票在去年 11 月特朗普总统当选后不久创下新高，因为投资者认为更友好的监管环境可能帮助公司更快地将其自动驾驶出租车和类人机器人推向市场。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克认为，这些产品平台将帮助特斯拉有朝一日成为全球最有价值的公司。</p>
<p>事实上，马斯克相信特斯拉最终可能与下五大公司合计的价值相当。今天，这些公司包括 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，它们的总价值为 11.8 万亿美元。</p>
<p>但特斯拉的股票目前正朝着错误的方向发展。与最近的历史最高点相比，股价下跌了 47%，而一系列逆风正在困扰其核心业务，这可能导致股价进一步下跌 50%（或更多）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU4MTgvYS1ibHVlLXRlc2xhLWNhci1kcml2aW5nLW9uLWFuLW9wZW4tcm9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU4MTgvYS1ibHVlLXRlc2xhLWNhci1kcml2aW5nLW9uLWFuLW9wZW4tcm9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的电动车销量急剧下降</h2>
<p>尽管马斯克可能专注于自动驾驶汽车和机器人，但电动车（EV）销量仍占特斯拉总收入的 72%——不幸的是，它们目前正在下滑。2024 年销量下降了 1%，降至 179 万辆，但在 2025 年第一季度下降加速至 13%。</p>
<p>第一季度交付量的下降使特斯拉的汽车收入同比暴跌 20%，整体净收入（利润）则暴跌了惊人的 71%。公司的问题有多重原因：电动车市场竞争加剧，许多低成本生产商进入市场，而消费者对特斯拉品牌的信任在今年因马斯克参与政治而减弱。</p>
<p>在竞争方面，特斯拉面临来自中国电动车生产商如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 的挑战，该公司在国内市场的汽车售价低至 1 万美元。比亚迪还在进入欧洲市场，可能会夺走特斯拉多年来积累的一部分市场份额。</p>
<p>在政治方面，马斯克花了很多时间管理政府效率部（DOGE），该部门成立的目的是减少美国政府的浪费性支出，以降低国家债务。马斯克和他的团队因裁员和削减美国国际开发署（USAID）等项目的资金而受到批评，以至于在全球的特斯拉经销商处发生了定期抗议。</p>
<p>好消息是：特斯拉计划在今年晚些时候推出一些自家的低成本电动车，马斯克刚刚告诉投资者，他计划从 5 月开始减少在 DOGE 的工作时间，以便能更多地专注于电动车制造商。这些都是修复特斯拉在过去几个月中遭受的一些损失的重要步骤。</p>
<h2>来自自动驾驶和机器人技术的可观收入可能需要数年才能实现</h2>
<p>特斯拉的 Cybercab 自动驾驶出租车旨在在打车网络中全天候自动运送乘客，为公司创造新的收入来源。然而，预计它要到明年才能进入大规模生产，之后可能还需要一些时间才能带来可观的收入。</p>
<p>此外，特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）软件仍未获得在公共道路上无监督使用的批准，而 Cybercab 在没有它的情况下无法运行。这使得特斯拉落后于像 Waymo 这样的竞争对手，后者每周已经完成了 250,000 次付费自动驾驶行程。</p>
<p>话虽如此，特斯拉在 FSD 获得监管批准后可能会超越 Waymo。该软件的无监督版本将与特斯拉大多数乘用电动车兼容，因此公司将拥有数百万辆客户汽车，这些汽车可以通过提供自动驾驶打车服务为其车主（和特斯拉）开始创造收入。</p>
<p>此外，马斯克表示，Cybercab 的生产成本比 Waymo 的车辆低约 80%，因此特斯拉在机器人出租车最终实现规模时将具有显著的价格优势。</p>
<p>然后是 Optimus 类人机器人。马斯克表示，特斯拉今年将生产数千个 Optimus，以在自己的工厂中执行任务。但他认为，到 2029 年，公司每年可能生产超过 100 万个类人机器人。像 Optimus 这样的类人机器人将能够执行人类不愿意做的危险或重复性工作，同时也将作为家庭助手发挥作用。</p>
<p>因此，马斯克之前告诉投资者，到 2040 年，类人机器人可能会超过人类，这就是他预测 Optimus 在长期内可能带来惊人 10 万亿美元收入的原因。</p>
<h2>特斯拉股票目前极其昂贵</h2>
<p>特斯拉有可能在未来某一天凭借 FSD、Cybercab 和 Optimus 成为全球最有价值的公司。但在当前，它面临着严重的估值问题。</p>
<p>根据特斯拉过去 12 个月的每股收益（EPS）为 1.74 美元，其股票的市盈率（P/E）为 148.6，使其价格是 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数（市盈率为 27.1）的五倍。此外，特斯拉的估值明显高于它希望超越的五家公司：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3daaedde1958d40196932a5fa9543979.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3daaedde1958d40196932a5fa9543979.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>简单来说，特斯拉的估值将在短期内成为进一步上涨的障碍。即使马斯克对公司长期潜力的看法是正确的，这也不一定是今天为股票支付如此高溢价的好理由。请记住，来自自动驾驶和 Optimus 的可观收入可能需要数年才能实现，如果电动车销量在此期间继续萎缩，特斯拉可能面临盈利急剧下滑，这将使其股票看起来更加昂贵。</p>
<p>因此，尽管特斯拉股票已经从其历史高点下跌了 47%，但仍然存在进一步下跌 50%（或更多）的风险，以使其估值更接近于大型科技公司的水平。例如，它必须下跌 76% 才能与英伟达的市盈率相匹配，而英伟达是全球增长最快的公司之一。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>埃隆·马斯克相信，特斯拉有可能成为全球最有价值的公司，甚至可能与苹果、微软、英伟达、谷歌和亚马逊的总市值相匹配。然而，特斯拉的股票自峰值以来已下跌 47%，电动车销量因竞争加剧和品牌问题显著下降。尽管特斯拉计划推出更低成本的电动车，并专注于自动驾驶，但这些举措带来的实质性收入可能需要数年时间才能实现。特斯拉的股票仍然昂贵，引发了对其可能进一步下跌 50% 或更多的担忧</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.29%) stock hit a new record high shortly after President Donald Trump's election win last November because investors thought a friendlier regulatory environment could help the company bring its autonomous robotaxi and humanoid robot to market more quickly. CEO Elon Musk thinks these product platforms will help Tesla become the world's most valuable company one day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.29%）的股票在去年 11 月特朗普总统当选后不久创下新高，因为投资者认为更友好的监管环境可能帮助公司更快地将其自动驾驶出租车和类人机器人推向市场。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克认为，这些产品平台将帮助特斯拉有朝一日成为全球最有价值的公司。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Musk believes Tesla could eventually be as valuable as the next five largest companies combined. Today, those companies would be <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>, which have a combined value of $11.8 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，马斯克相信特斯拉最终可能与下五大公司合计的价值相当。今天，这些公司包括 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>，它们的总价值为 11.8 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But Tesla stock is currently heading in the wrong direction. It's down 47% from its recent all-time high, and a series of headwinds are plaguing its core business, which could lead to a <em>further</em> decline of 50% (or more) from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特斯拉的股票目前正朝着错误的方向发展。与最近的历史最高点相比，股价下跌了 47%，而一系列逆风正在困扰其核心业务，这可能导致股价进一步下跌 50%（或更多）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU4MTgvYS1ibHVlLXRlc2xhLWNhci1kcml2aW5nLW9uLWFuLW9wZW4tcm9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F815818%2Fa-blue-tesla-car-driving-on-an-open-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's electric vehicle sales are plunging</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的电动车销量急剧下降</h2>
</div><p>Although Musk might be focused on autonomous vehicles and robotics, electric vehicle (EV) sales still make up 72% of Tesla's total revenue -- and unfortunately, they are sinking right now. Sales fell by 1% during 2024 to 1.79 million cars, but the decline accelerated to 13% in the first quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管马斯克可能专注于自动驾驶汽车和机器人，但电动车（EV）销量仍占特斯拉总收入的 72%——不幸的是，它们目前正在下滑。2024 年销量下降了 1%，降至 179 万辆，但在 2025 年第一季度下降加速至 13%。</p>
</div><p>The Q1 decline in deliveries sent Tesla's automotive revenue tumbling by 20% year over year, and its overall net income (profit) plunging by a whopping 71%. There are several layers to the company's problems: Competition is ramping up in the EV space with numerous low-cost producers entering the market, and consumers soured on the Tesla brand this year because of Musk's involvement in politics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一季度交付量的下降使特斯拉的汽车收入同比暴跌 20%，整体净收入（利润）则暴跌了惊人的 71%。公司的问题有多重原因：电动车市场竞争加剧，许多低成本生产商进入市场，而消费者对特斯拉品牌的信任在今年因马斯克参与政治而减弱。</p>
</div><p>On the competition front, Tesla is up against China-based EV producers like <strong>BYD</strong>, which is capable of selling cars for as little as $10,000 in its domestic market. BYD is also making its way into Europe, where it could snatch some of the market share Tesla has spent years accumulating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在竞争方面，特斯拉面临来自中国电动车生产商如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 的挑战，该公司在国内市场的汽车售价低至 1 万美元。比亚迪还在进入欧洲市场，可能会夺走特斯拉多年来积累的一部分市场份额。</p>
</div><p>On the political front, Musk has spent a lot of time running the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which was established to reduce wasteful spending in the U.S. government to bring down the national debt. Musk and his team faced criticism for laying off government workers and slashing funding from programs like the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), to the point there have been regular protests at Tesla dealerships around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在政治方面，马斯克花了很多时间管理政府效率部（DOGE），该部门成立的目的是减少美国政府的浪费性支出，以降低国家债务。马斯克和他的团队因裁员和削减美国国际开发署（USAID）等项目的资金而受到批评，以至于在全球的特斯拉经销商处发生了定期抗议。</p>
</div><p>Here's the good news: Tesla is planning to roll out some lower-cost EVs of its own later this year, and Musk just told investors he plans to spend less time at DOGE starting from May, so he can focus more on the EV maker instead. These are important steps toward repairing some of the damage Tesla has suffered over the past few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是：特斯拉计划在今年晚些时候推出一些自家的低成本电动车，马斯克刚刚告诉投资者，他计划从 5 月开始减少在 DOGE 的工作时间，以便能更多地专注于电动车制造商。这些都是修复特斯拉在过去几个月中遭受的一些损失的重要步骤。</p>
</div><h2>Meaningful revenue from autonomous driving and robotics could be years away</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>来自自动驾驶和机器人技术的可观收入可能需要数年才能实现</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's Cybercab robotaxi is designed to autonomously haul passengers around the clock within a ride-hailing network, creating a new revenue stream for the company. However, it isn't expected to go into mass production until next year, and it could take some time after that before it brings in meaningful amounts of money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的 Cybercab 自动驾驶出租车旨在在打车网络中全天候自动运送乘客，为公司创造新的收入来源。然而，预计它要到明年才能进入大规模生产，之后可能还需要一些时间才能带来可观的收入。</p>
</div><p>Plus, Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) software still isn't approved for unsupervised use on public roads, and the Cybercab can't operate without it. This places Tesla behind competitors like Waymo, which is already completing 250,000 paid autonomous trips every week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）软件仍未获得在公共道路上无监督使用的批准，而 Cybercab 在没有它的情况下无法运行。这使得特斯拉落后于像 Waymo 这样的竞争对手，后者每周已经完成了 250,000 次付费自动驾驶行程。</p>
</div><p>With that said, Tesla could leapfrog Waymo when FSD wins regulatory approval. The unsupervised version of the software will be compatible with most of Tesla's passenger EVs, so the company will have a fleet of millions of customer cars which could start earning revenue for their owners (and Tesla) by offering autonomous ride-hailing services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，特斯拉在 FSD 获得监管批准后可能会超越 Waymo。该软件的无监督版本将与特斯拉大多数乘用电动车兼容，因此公司将拥有数百万辆客户汽车，这些汽车可以通过提供自动驾驶打车服务为其车主（和特斯拉）开始创造收入。</p>
</div><p>Plus, Musk says the Cybercab is around 80% cheaper to produce than Waymo's vehicles, so Tesla will have a serious pricing advantage when the robotaxi eventually achieves scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，马斯克表示，Cybercab 的生产成本比 Waymo 的车辆低约 80%，因此特斯拉在机器人出租车最终实现规模时将具有显著的价格优势。</p>
</div><p>Then there is the Optimus humanoid robot. Musk says Tesla will produce thousands of them this year to perform tasks in its own factories. But he thinks the company could produce over 1 million annually by 2029. Humanoids like Optimus will be capable of doing dangerous or repetitive jobs that humans don't want to do, but they will also be useful as household assistants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是 Optimus 类人机器人。马斯克表示，特斯拉今年将生产数千个 Optimus，以在自己的工厂中执行任务。但他认为，到 2029 年，公司每年可能生产超过 100 万个类人机器人。像 Optimus 这样的类人机器人将能够执行人类不愿意做的危险或重复性工作，同时也将作为家庭助手发挥作用。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Musk has previously told investors there could be more humanoid robots than humans by the year 2040, which is why he predicts Optimus could bring in a staggering $10 trillion in revenue over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，马斯克之前告诉投资者，到 2040 年，类人机器人可能会超过人类，这就是他预测 Optimus 在长期内可能带来惊人 10 万亿美元收入的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla stock is extremely expensive right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉股票目前极其昂贵</h2>
</div><p>Tesla could become the most valuable company in the world one day on the back of FSD, the Cybercab, and Optimus. But in the here and now, it faces a serious valuation problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉有可能在未来某一天凭借 FSD、Cybercab 和 Optimus 成为全球最有价值的公司。但在当前，它面临着严重的估值问题。</p>
</div><p>Based on Tesla's trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) of $1.74, its stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 148.6, making it a whopping five times as expensive as the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index which trades at a P/E ratio of 27.1. Moreover, Tesla is materially more expensive than the five companies it hopes to surpass one day:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据特斯拉过去 12 个月的每股收益（EPS）为 1.74 美元，其股票的市盈率（P/E）为 148.6，使其价格是 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 指数（市盈率为 27.1）的五倍。此外，特斯拉的估值明显高于它希望超越的五家公司：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3daaedde1958d40196932a5fa9543979.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3daaedde1958d40196932a5fa9543979.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, Tesla's valuation will be a roadblock to further upside in the near term. Even if Musk is right about the company's potential in the long run, that isn't necessarily a good reason to pay such a hefty premium for the stock today. Remember, meaningful revenue from autonomous driving and Optimus could be years away, and if EV sales continue to shrink in the meantime, Tesla could face spiraling earnings which will make its stock appear even more expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，特斯拉的估值将在短期内成为进一步上涨的障碍。即使马斯克对公司长期潜力的看法是正确的，这也不一定是今天为股票支付如此高溢价的好理由。请记住，来自自动驾驶和 Optimus 的可观收入可能需要数年才能实现，如果电动车销量在此期间继续萎缩，特斯拉可能面临盈利急剧下滑，这将使其股票看起来更加昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, even though Tesla stock is already down 47% from its record high, there is a looming risk it could suffer a further decline of 50% (or more) to bring its valuation closer to those of its big-tech peers. It would have to decline by 76% just to trade in line with Nvidia's P/E ratio, for example, and that is one of the fastest growing companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管特斯拉股票已经从其历史高点下跌了 47%，但仍然存在进一步下跌 50%（或更多）的风险，以使其估值更接近于大型科技公司的水平。例如，它必须下跌 76% 才能与英伟达的市盈率相匹配，而英伟达是全球增长最快的公司之一。</p>
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Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Will Become the World's Most Valuable Company. Here's Why Its Stock Could Decline by 50% (or More) Instead

- 特斯拉股价在特朗普当选后创下新高，但目前已下跌 47%。  
- 电动车销售下滑，2024 年销量下降 1%，2025 年第一季度降幅加速至 13%。  
- 特斯拉面临竞争加剧和品牌形象受损，未来可能进一步下跌 50%。

埃隆·马斯克认为特斯拉将成为全球最有价值的公司。然而，其股价可能下跌 50% 甚至更多的原因如下