<p>最终，收益将推动股价。一家公司的价值在于它为股东创造的累积利润，折现回今天。作为投资者，我们希望以尽可能低的价格购买这些收益的一部分——这就是购买股票时所做的事情。衡量股票便宜程度的一种方法是查看其前瞻市盈率（P/E），该比率将当前市值除以华尔街对未来 12 个月收益的预估。数字越低，越好。</p>
<p>今天，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL 2.63%) (GOOG 2.43%) 的前瞻市盈率处于历史最低水平之一。事实上，Alphabet 的前瞻市盈率是所有 “七大奇迹” 股票中最低的。这是否意味着你今天应该将这只股票纳入你的投资组合？让我们分析一下在人工智能（AI）时代的 Alphabet 业务。</p>
<h2>折现前瞻收益</h2>
<p>Alphabet 是 Google、YouTube、Google Cloud、DeepMind、Waymo 和其他科技子公司的母公司。其利润主要来自 Google 搜索及相关业务。</p>
<p>历史上，由于 Google 搜索的快速增长，Alphabet 的市盈率通常会有溢价。过去 10 年，最低的滞后市盈率——将当前市值除以滞后收益——达到了 16.6，但通常远高于这个水平。如今，Alphabet 的前瞻市盈率大约在 18 左右，这意味着 Alphabet 股票处于历史上最被低估的水平之一。</p>
<p>在其他条件相同的情况下，投资者希望以尽可能低的市盈率购买股票。这样，你就可以以最低的价格购买股票。你可以获得更高的股息支付（Alphabet 当前的股息收益率为 0.5%），并在公司回购股票时获得更多的收益。Alphabet 在 2024 年回购了价值 620 亿美元的股票。按照这个回购速度，它每年可以减少 3.4% 的流通股，这将直接影响每股收益（EPS）的增长。</p>
<p>但为什么 Alphabet 股票如此被低估？这归结于来自人工智能和垄断诉讼的风险。</p>
<h2>OpenAI 的增长与垄断诉讼</h2>
<p>消费者人工智能的复兴正在到来。各类初创公司获得了数十亿美元的资金，以使对话式人工智能工具对全球每个人都变得有用。没有哪个比 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 更受欢迎，估计有 4 亿活跃用户，目标是在 2025 年底前达到 10 亿用户。</p>
<p>OpenAI 的增长让投资者对 Alphabet 感到恐惧，因为 Google 搜索的现金牛似乎受到了冲击。虽然这可能是真的，但 Alphabet 并没有坐以待毙。它已将人工智能功能嵌入 Google 搜索，允许用户使用 Google Lens 搜索图片，并运营自己的对话式人工智能机器人 Gemini。</p>
<p>Gemini 的先进工具和受欢迎的 NotebookLM 产品现在是 Google One 订阅的一部分，每月 20 美元即可获得一揽子 Google 服务。利用其规模经济，我相信 Alphabet 有能力反击 OpenAI，并赢得消费者人工智能的竞争。</p>
<p>另一个对 Alphabet 业务的风险是它面临的垄断诉讼。一名联邦法官裁定该公司的广告交易业务是非法垄断，这意味着该业务可能会被拆分。虽然这对 Alphabet 来说并不好，但在线广告交易目前仅占其整体收入的一小部分。</p>
<p>更重要的是 Google 搜索，目前正处于自己的反垄断案件中。今天，这第二起反垄断案件的结果尚不清楚，但有传言称它可能被迫出售 Google Chrome 浏览器或停止与 <strong>Apple</strong> 等手机制造商的硬件独占交易。</p>
<p>垄断反垄断案件对 Alphabet 的业务构成风险，但对这家科技巨头来说可能并非全是坏消息。它目前正面临来自 OpenAI 等公司的新竞争，这使得此案的相关性日益降低，TikTok 和 Instagram 也成为年轻人搜索的新用例。此外，阻止 Alphabet 向硬件制造商支付款项的裁决可能实际上有助于公司增加收益。彭博社报道，Alphabet 在 2022 年向 Apple 支付了 200 亿美元，以使 Google 搜索成为 Safari 的默认搜索引擎。如果取消这一安排，Alphabet 的年度支出将减少 200 亿美元，尽管这也增加了搜索引擎竞争对手在 Apple 设备上夺取市场份额的风险。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03693f13460c2c2234292bdb65f357fb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03693f13460c2c2234292bdb65f357fb.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward) 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>为什么今天是购买 Alphabet 股票的好时机</h2>
<p>围绕人工智能竞争和垄断诉讼的所有噪音让投资者对购买 Alphabet 股票感到恐惧。2025 年关税对其业务的潜在影响也是一个因素。这为具有长期投资视野的投资者提供了一个买入机会。</p>
<p>Alphabet 在消费者技术领域有着卓越的创新记录，全球数十亿人每天都在使用其服务。它在 Google 搜索中传统上是一个垄断者。现在，随着 ChatGPT 等新人工智能工具的崛起，行业可能最终会变成双头垄断。这对一个每年在消费和广告支出上达到数千亿美元的增长行业（包括传统搜索和人工智能）来说，并不是世界末日。</p>
<p>上个季度，Alphabet 的整体收入同比增长 12%，达到 965 亿美元。由于强劲的营业利润率扩张，营业收入同比增长 31%。如果这种快速的收益增长持续下去，Alphabet 的市盈率将迅速从这个已经较低的起点下降。这使得这只股票今天对关注未来的投资者来说是一个绝佳的买入机会。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>Alphabet（谷歌，GOOGL，GOOG）目前的前瞻市盈率（P/E）处于最低水平之一，使其成为 “七大巨头” 股票中最便宜的一只。尽管面临来自 AI 竞争的风险，特别是来自 OpenAI 的威胁，以及持续的垄断诉讼，但 Alphabet 强大的基本面，包括显著的股票回购和多元化的商业模式，表明其具有增长潜力。投资者被鼓励考虑将 Alphabet 视为买入，因其估值折扣和对竞争威胁的战略应对</p>

<p>At the end of the day, earnings will drive stock prices. A company is worth the cumulative profits it generates for shareholders, discounted back to today. As investors, we want to buy a piece of these earnings -- what you are doing when buying a stock -- as cheaply as possible. One way to measure the cheapness of a stock is to look at its forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), which takes the current market cap and divides it by Wall Street estimates for earnings over the next 12 months. The lower the number, the better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，收益将推动股价。一家公司的价值在于它为股东创造的累积利润，折现回今天。作为投资者，我们希望以尽可能低的价格购买这些收益的一部分——这就是购买股票时所做的事情。衡量股票便宜程度的一种方法是查看其前瞻市盈率（P/E），该比率将当前市值除以华尔街对未来 12 个月收益的预估。数字越低，越好。</p>
</div><p>Today, <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL 2.63%) (GOOG 2.43%) is trading at one of its lowest forward P/E ratios ever. In fact, Alphabet has the lowest forward P/E ratio of any Magnificent Seven stock. Does that mean you should buy the stock for your portfolio today? Let's analyze Alphabet's business in the age of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL 2.63%) (GOOG 2.43%) 的前瞻市盈率处于历史最低水平之一。事实上，Alphabet 的前瞻市盈率是所有 “七大奇迹” 股票中最低的。这是否意味着你今天应该将这只股票纳入你的投资组合？让我们分析一下在人工智能（AI）时代的 Alphabet 业务。</p>
</div><h2>Discounted forward earnings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>折现前瞻收益</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet is the parent company of Google, YouTube, Google Cloud, DeepMind, Waymo, and other technology subsidiaries. Mainly, its profits come from Google Search and related properties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 是 Google、YouTube、Google Cloud、DeepMind、Waymo 和其他科技子公司的母公司。其利润主要来自 Google 搜索及相关业务。</p>
</div><p>Historically, Alphabet would get a premium P/E ratio due to the fast growth of Google Search. The minimum trailing P/E ratio -- which takes the current market cap and divides it by trailing earnings -- hit 16.6 in the last 10 years, but was usually well above this level. Today, Alphabet's forward P/E ratio is right around 18, meaning that Alphabet stock is at one of its most discounted levels ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，由于 Google 搜索的快速增长，Alphabet 的市盈率通常会有溢价。过去 10 年，最低的滞后市盈率——将当前市值除以滞后收益——达到了 16.6，但通常远高于这个水平。如今，Alphabet 的前瞻市盈率大约在 18 左右，这意味着 Alphabet 股票处于历史上最被低估的水平之一。</p>
</div><p>All else equal, investors want to buy a stock at the lowest P/E ratio possible. That way, you are buying the stock at the cheapest price possible. You can get a higher dividend payout (Alphabet's dividend yield is currently 0.5%) and more bang for your buck when the company repurchases stock. Alphabet repurchased $62 billion worth of stock in 2024. At that rate of repurchases, it can reduce its shares outstanding by 3.4% a year, which will directly affect earnings per share (EPS) growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其他条件相同的情况下，投资者希望以尽可能低的市盈率购买股票。这样，你就可以以最低的价格购买股票。你可以获得更高的股息支付（Alphabet 当前的股息收益率为 0.5%），并在公司回购股票时获得更多的收益。Alphabet 在 2024 年回购了价值 620 亿美元的股票。按照这个回购速度，它每年可以减少 3.4% 的流通股，这将直接影响每股收益（EPS）的增长。</p>
</div><p>But why is Alphabet stock so discounted? It comes down to risks from both AI and monopoly lawsuits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但为什么 Alphabet 股票如此被低估？这归结于来自人工智能和垄断诉讼的风险。</p>
</div><h2>OpenAI growth and monopoly lawsuit</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>OpenAI 的增长与垄断诉讼</h2>
</div><p>A consumer AI renaissance is upon us. Start-ups across the board are getting billions of dollars in funding to make conversational AI tools useful for everyone around the world. None are more popular than OpenAI's ChatGPT, which has an estimated 400 million active users and a goal to hit 1 billion users by the end of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者人工智能的复兴正在到来。各类初创公司获得了数十亿美元的资金，以使对话式人工智能工具对全球每个人都变得有用。没有哪个比 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 更受欢迎，估计有 4 亿活跃用户，目标是在 2025 年底前达到 10 亿用户。</p>
</div><p>OpenAI growth scared investors away from Alphabet, as it looks like the cash cow in Google Search has been disrupted. That could be true, but Alphabet is not taking these competitive threats lying down. It has embedded AI features into Google Search, allows users to search pictures with Google Lens, and is operating its own conversational AI bot called Gemini.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 的增长让投资者对 Alphabet 感到恐惧，因为 Google 搜索的现金牛似乎受到了冲击。虽然这可能是真的，但 Alphabet 并没有坐以待毙。它已将人工智能功能嵌入 Google 搜索，允许用户使用 Google Lens 搜索图片，并运营自己的对话式人工智能机器人 Gemini。</p>
</div><p>Gemini's advanced tools and the popular NotebookLM product are now a part of the Google One subscription, which gives you a bundle of Google Services for $20 a month. Using its economies of scale, I believe that Alphabet has the power to push back against OpenAI and win the consumer AI race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gemini 的先进工具和受欢迎的 NotebookLM 产品现在是 Google One 订阅的一部分，每月 20 美元即可获得一揽子 Google 服务。利用其规模经济，我相信 Alphabet 有能力反击 OpenAI，并赢得消费者人工智能的竞争。</p>
</div><p>Another risk to Alphabet's business is the monopoly lawsuits it is facing. A federal court judge ruled that the company's advertising exchange business is an illegal monopoly, meaning the business is likely to be broken up. While this is not good for Alphabet, the online ad exchange is only a sliver of its overall revenue today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个对 Alphabet 业务的风险是它面临的垄断诉讼。一名联邦法官裁定该公司的广告交易业务是非法垄断，这意味着该业务可能会被拆分。虽然这对 Alphabet 来说并不好，但在线广告交易目前仅占其整体收入的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>More important is Google Search, which is in the middle of its own antitrust case. Today, it's unclear what the result of this second antitrust case will be, but there are rumors it could be forced to sell the Google Chrome browser or stop its hardware exclusive deals with phone makers like <strong>Apple</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是 Google 搜索，目前正处于自己的反垄断案件中。今天，这第二起反垄断案件的结果尚不清楚，但有传言称它可能被迫出售 Google Chrome 浏览器或停止与 <strong>Apple</strong> 等手机制造商的硬件独占交易。</p>
</div><p>A monopoly antitrust case is a risk to Alphabet's business, but it may not be all sour for the technology giant. It's currently facing new competition from the likes of OpenAI that makes this case increasingly moot, with TikTok and Instagram also serving as new use cases for young people to search. Plus, a ruling that stops Alphabet's payments to hardware makers may actually help the company increase earnings. Bloomberg reported that Alphabet paid Apple $20 billion in 2022 to make Google Search the default on Safari. Take that away, and Alphabet's expenses drop by $20 billion annually, albeit with added risk that search engine competitors could take share on Apple devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>垄断反垄断案件对 Alphabet 的业务构成风险，但对这家科技巨头来说可能并非全是坏消息。它目前正面临来自 OpenAI 等公司的新竞争，这使得此案的相关性日益降低，TikTok 和 Instagram 也成为年轻人搜索的新用例。此外，阻止 Alphabet 向硬件制造商支付款项的裁决可能实际上有助于公司增加收益。彭博社报道，Alphabet 在 2022 年向 Apple 支付了 200 亿美元，以使 Google 搜索成为 Safari 的默认搜索引擎。如果取消这一安排，Alphabet 的年度支出将减少 200 亿美元，尽管这也增加了搜索引擎竞争对手在 Apple 设备上夺取市场份额的风险。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03693f13460c2c2234292bdb65f357fb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/03693f13460c2c2234292bdb65f357fb.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN PE Ratio (Forward) 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Why Alphabet stock is a buy today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么今天是购买 Alphabet 股票的好时机</h2>
</div><p>All the noise around AI competition and monopoly lawsuits has investors scared of buying Alphabet stock. There's also the potential effect of tariffs on its business in 2025. That presents a buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term time horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕人工智能竞争和垄断诉讼的所有噪音让投资者对购买 Alphabet 股票感到恐惧。2025 年关税对其业务的潜在影响也是一个因素。这为具有长期投资视野的投资者提供了一个买入机会。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet has a phenomenal track record of innovation in consumer technology, and billions of people use its services every day around the globe. It was traditionally a monopoly in Google Search. Now, the industry may end up being a duopoly with the rise of the new AI tools like ChatGPT. This is not the end of the world for a growing sector with hundreds of billions in consumer and advertising spending each year (including both traditional search and AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 在消费者技术领域有着卓越的创新记录，全球数十亿人每天都在使用其服务。它在 Google 搜索中传统上是一个垄断者。现在，随着 ChatGPT 等新人工智能工具的崛起，行业可能最终会变成双头垄断。这对一个每年在消费和广告支出上达到数千亿美元的增长行业（包括传统搜索和人工智能）来说，并不是世界末日。</p>
</div><p>Last quarter, Alphabet's overall revenue grew 12% year over year to $96.5 billion. Operating income grew 31% year over year due to strong operating margin expansion. If this fast earnings growth continues, Alphabet's P/E ratio will fall quickly from this already low starting point. This makes the stock a fantastic buying opportunity today for investors with an eye on the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个季度，Alphabet 的整体收入同比增长 12%，达到 965 亿美元。由于强劲的营业利润率扩张，营业收入同比增长 31%。如果这种快速的收益增长持续下去，Alphabet 的市盈率将迅速从这个已经较低的起点下降。这使得这只股票今天对关注未来的投资者来说是一个绝佳的买入机会。</p>
</div>

Alphabet Is the Cheapest "Magnificent Seven" Stock on This Key Valuation Metric. Does That Make the Stock a Buy?

- Alphabet 当前的前瞻市盈率接近历史最低水平。  
- 竞争压力和垄断诉讼使投资者对其股票持谨慎态度。  
- 长期来看，Alphabet 仍具备强劲的创新能力和增长潜力。  

Alphabet 是 “辉煌七大” 股票中在这一关键估值指标上最便宜的。这是否意味着该股票值得买入？