<p>在 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.29%) 的世界里，从来没有无聊的时刻。这家电动汽车巨头的股东经历了一段狂热期，股价在 2024 年选举后飙升。然而，今天，股价距离历史最高点下跌了约 50%，所有这些涨幅都已被抹去。同时，公司的利润率持续下降，并且在全球各国的市场份额也在流失。</p>
<p>一如既往，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对特斯拉的未来抱有宏伟的抱负。网络出租车、新款跑车、人工智能（AI）项目，甚至还有特斯拉餐厅都在筹备中。然而，无论马斯克对公司未来多么兴奋，有一个收益指标对这只股票的价格至关重要，而目前看起来并不乐观。</p>
<h2>交付缓慢，收入下滑</h2>
<p>特斯拉在周二交易结束后公布了第一季度业绩，股价在盘后交易中飙升。然而，这一上涨——尽管在随后的交易中经历了剧烈波动，但截至周四中午仍大致持续——部分原因可能是市场对特朗普总统关于美国对中国关税的言论以及他没有计划试图解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的反应。如果你查看特斯拉的基本报告，数据并不好看。</p>
<p>特斯拉的电动汽车交付量同比下降了 13%。收入下降了 9%，仅因能源生产和储存部门的快速增长而略有支撑。毛利率降至 16.3%。第一季度的营业利润率仅为 2.1%，显示出特斯拉在成本上升和其他电动汽车品牌竞争威胁下的脆弱。公司的市场份额在中国、北美和欧洲这三个重要市场的增长停滞不前，竞争对手正在逐渐蚕食这一曾经主导的电动汽车品牌。</p>
<p>管理层对 2025 年剩余时间的前景也并不乐观。他们推迟了提供指导数字，直到下个季度，并没有对 2025 年剩余时间的增长前景发表任何看法。这对于曾被认为是全球增长最快的科技公司之一来说，情况并不乐观。</p>
<h2>新产品在哪里？</h2>
<p>乐观的投资者可能会说，投资者应该关注未来。特斯拉声称将在 2025 年推出一款新的、更实惠的车型，并表示计划将年产能力提升至 300 万辆。（特斯拉在 2024 年的产量略低于 200 万辆。）对此，空头可能会反问：这些车辆的购买者在哪里？特斯拉的需求已经骤降，销售量仅靠大幅降价来支撑，这导致了利润率的崩溃。在竞争对手如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 在中国市场上迅速抢占市场份额的情况下，增加 100 万辆新车的产能似乎并不是明智之举。</p>
<p>公司还对其核心消费者电动汽车领域以外的新产品做出了大胆承诺。包括网络出租车，这是一款预计将在 2026 年实现量产的自动驾驶车辆。其 Optimus 机器人仍在测试中，目前没有公开的发布时间表。这些产品可能在技术上具有创新性，但没有人应该期待它们在财务上对特斯拉产生任何短期影响。在我看来，任何今天因为网络出租车或 Optimus 而押注特斯拉股票的投资者，都是在给予一个屡次未能兑现承诺的管理团队过多的信任。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>有一个指标比其他所有指标都重要</h2>
<p>一般来说，如果一家公司的基本业务的盈利能力在增长，那么其股价在长期内会走高。但为了让投资者从盈利增长中受益，合理的买入价格也很重要。</p>
<p>在特斯拉的情况下，既没有底线增长，也没有吸引人的估值。其盈利持续下降——在第一季度，其调整后的每股收益（EPS）为 0.27 美元，远低于分析师预期的 0.39 美元。特斯拉的营业收入自 2022 年底以来一直在下降，如果其利润率继续低迷，预计在 2025 年还会继续下降。</p>
<p>今天，投资者也无法以合理的价格购买特斯拉股票。该股的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 95——这一数字尚未反映分析师基于第一季度令人失望的收益可能更新的长期预测。前瞻市盈率是未来几年决定特斯拉股票走势的最重要指标，而相对于市场平均水平（通常在 20 到 25 之间），这一数字显得极为高企。</p>
<p>从这个角度来看，特斯拉如此高的前瞻市盈率表明，未来几年其股东将面临更多的痛苦。现在避免购买这只股票。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉的股票从峰值下跌了 50%，毛利率和市场份额也在下降。该公司报告电动车交付量下降了 13%，收入减少了 9%，引发了对其未来的担忧。尽管有雄心勃勃的新车型计划和增加产量的计划，但需求正在减弱，利润率受到竞争对手的压力。分析师对特斯拉的复苏能力持怀疑态度，因为其未来市盈率为 95，表明在盈利下滑的情况下估值并不吸引人</p>

<p>There is never a dull moment in the land of <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.29%). The electric vehicle (EV) giant's shareholders went through a period of euphoria that sent the stock surging after the 2024 election. Today, with the stock down by around 50% from its all-time high, all these gains have been erased. Meanwhile, the company's margins continue to erode, and it's losing market share in countries around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.29%) 的世界里，从来没有无聊的时刻。这家电动汽车巨头的股东经历了一段狂热期，股价在 2024 年选举后飙升。然而，今天，股价距离历史最高点下跌了约 50%，所有这些涨幅都已被抹去。同时，公司的利润率持续下降，并且在全球各国的市场份额也在流失。</p>
</div><p>As ever, CEO Elon Musk has grand ambitions for the future of Tesla. Cybercabs, a new roadster, artificial intelligence (AI) projects, and even a Tesla Diner are in the works. Yet regardless of how excited Musk is about the company's future, one earnings metric matters above all else for this stock price, and it looks ugly right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一如既往，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对特斯拉的未来抱有宏伟的抱负。网络出租车、新款跑车、人工智能（AI）项目，甚至还有特斯拉餐厅都在筹备中。然而，无论马斯克对公司未来多么兴奋，有一个收益指标对这只股票的价格至关重要，而目前看起来并不乐观。</p>
</div><h2>Slow deliveries, sinking revenue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交付缓慢，收入下滑</h2>
</div><p>Tesla reported its first-quarter results after the close of trading Tuesday, and its stock surged in after-hours trading. However, that upswing -- which, despite sharp oscillations in sessions that followed, has largely persisted as of midday Thursday -- was likely due in part to the broad market reaction to President Donald Trump's statements around U.S. tariffs on China and his lack of a plan to try to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. If you take a look at the underlying Tesla report, the numbers do not look good.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在周二交易结束后公布了第一季度业绩，股价在盘后交易中飙升。然而，这一上涨——尽管在随后的交易中经历了剧烈波动，但截至周四中午仍大致持续——部分原因可能是市场对特朗普总统关于美国对中国关税的言论以及他没有计划试图解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的反应。如果你查看特斯拉的基本报告，数据并不好看。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's EV deliveries fell 13% year over year. Revenue sank 9%, only slightly buoyed by the rapid growth of the energy generation and storage segment. Gross margin sank to 16.3%. Operating margin in Q1 was a razor-thin 2.1%, illustrating how threatened Tesla is by rising costs and competitive threats from other EV brands. The company's market share gains have stalled in all three of its important markets -- China, North America, and Europe -- as competitors gain ground on the once-dominant EV brand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的电动汽车交付量同比下降了 13%。收入下降了 9%，仅因能源生产和储存部门的快速增长而略有支撑。毛利率降至 16.3%。第一季度的营业利润率仅为 2.1%，显示出特斯拉在成本上升和其他电动汽车品牌竞争威胁下的脆弱。公司的市场份额在中国、北美和欧洲这三个重要市场的增长停滞不前，竞争对手正在逐渐蚕食这一曾经主导的电动汽车品牌。</p>
</div><p>Management is not optimistic about the rest of 2025, either. It delayed providing guidance numbers until next quarter, and offered no thoughts about what growth might look like for the rest of 2025. This is not a good spot for what was once considered one of the fastest-growing technology companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层对 2025 年剩余时间的前景也并不乐观。他们推迟了提供指导数字，直到下个季度，并没有对 2025 年剩余时间的增长前景发表任何看法。这对于曾被认为是全球增长最快的科技公司之一来说，情况并不乐观。</p>
</div><h2>Where are the new products?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新产品在哪里？</h2>
</div><p>Upbeat investors may say that investors should look to the future. Tesla claims that it will bring a new, more affordable vehicle model into production in 2025, and says it plans to boost its annual production capacity to 3 million vehicles. (Tesla produced just under 2 million vehicles in 2024.) To which a bear might reply: Where are the people clamoring to buy these vehicles? Demand for Teslas has fallen off a cliff, and sales volume is only being supported by steep price cuts that have collapsed profit margins. Adding capacity for 1 million new vehicles while competitors such as <strong>BYD</strong> wipe the floor with it by gaining market share in China does not seem like a wise move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乐观的投资者可能会说，投资者应该关注未来。特斯拉声称将在 2025 年推出一款新的、更实惠的车型，并表示计划将年产能力提升至 300 万辆。（特斯拉在 2024 年的产量略低于 200 万辆。）对此，空头可能会反问：这些车辆的购买者在哪里？特斯拉的需求已经骤降，销售量仅靠大幅降价来支撑，这导致了利润率的崩溃。在竞争对手如 <strong>比亚迪</strong> 在中国市场上迅速抢占市场份额的情况下，增加 100 万辆新车的产能似乎并不是明智之举。</p>
</div><p>The company is also making bold promises about new products outside of its core consumer EV niche. There is the Cybercab, an autonomous vehicle that it expects to ramp up to volume production in 2026. Its Optimus Robot is still under testing, and there's no publicly available timeline for when it might be released. These products may be technologically innovative, but nobody should expect them to move the needle financially for Tesla anytime soon. In my opinion, any investor who is betting on Tesla stock today because of the Cybercab or Optimus is giving too much credit to a management team that time and time again has made promises it later proved unable to fulfill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司还对其核心消费者电动汽车领域以外的新产品做出了大胆承诺。包括网络出租车，这是一款预计将在 2026 年实现量产的自动驾驶车辆。其 Optimus 机器人仍在测试中，目前没有公开的发布时间表。这些产品可能在技术上具有创新性，但没有人应该期待它们在财务上对特斯拉产生任何短期影响。在我看来，任何今天因为网络出租车或 Optimus 而押注特斯拉股票的投资者，都是在给予一个屡次未能兑现承诺的管理团队过多的信任。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c31516fed635aa9862c49f3bc58aec9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>One metric matters above all else</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有一个指标比其他所有指标都重要</h2>
</div><p>Generally speaking, a company's stock price will move higher over the long term if the earnings power of the underlying business is growing. But for investors to benefit from that earnings growth, it helps to buy the stock at a reasonable price, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一般来说，如果一家公司的基本业务的盈利能力在增长，那么其股价在长期内会走高。但为了让投资者从盈利增长中受益，合理的买入价格也很重要。</p>
</div><p>In Tesla's case, neither bottom-line growth nor an appealing valuation are on offer. Its earnings keep declining -- in the first quarter, its $0.27 in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in well below the $0.39 analyst expectation. Tesla's operating income has fallen since the end of 2022, and will likely keep falling in 2025 if its profit margins remain in the gutter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特斯拉的情况下，既没有底线增长，也没有吸引人的估值。其盈利持续下降——在第一季度，其调整后的每股收益（EPS）为 0.27 美元，远低于分析师预期的 0.39 美元。特斯拉的营业收入自 2022 年底以来一直在下降，如果其利润率继续低迷，预计在 2025 年还会继续下降。</p>
</div><p>Investors can't pick up Tesla shares at a reasonable price today, either. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 95 -- and that figure doesn't yet reflect how analysts are likely to update their longer-term forecasts based on Q1's disappointing earnings. Forward P/E is the one metric that will matter above all else in determining Tesla's stock direction over the next few years, and it is wildly high relative to the market's average, which tends to sit in the 20 to 25 range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，投资者也无法以合理的价格购买特斯拉股票。该股的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 95——这一数字尚未反映分析师基于第一季度令人失望的收益可能更新的长期预测。前瞻市盈率是未来几年决定特斯拉股票走势的最重要指标，而相对于市场平均水平（通常在 20 到 25 之间），这一数字显得极为高企。</p>
</div><p>In that light, the fact that Tesla carries such a lofty forward P/E ratio suggests that more pain is coming for its shareholders in the years to come. Avoid buying this stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度来看，特斯拉如此高的前瞻市盈率表明，未来几年其股东将面临更多的痛苦。现在避免购买这只股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock's 50% Crash: 1 Metric Suggests More Pain Is Ahead for the Electric Vehicle Giant

- 特斯拉股价自 2024 年大选后暴涨，现已下跌约 50%。  
- 第一季度电动车交付量同比下降 13%，营收下降 9%。  
- 特斯拉的前瞻市盈率高达 95，暗示未来股东将面临更多压力。

特斯拉股票暴跌 50%：一项指标显示这家电动汽车巨头可能会遭遇更多困境