<p>尽管在几乎所有指标上都表现糟糕，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 9.74%) 的股价仍然上涨，即使这家电动车制造商撤回了年度指引。截至目前，该股在 2025 年仍下跌超过 35%，但在过去一年中，尽管季度财报连续不佳，股价仍上涨了约 80%。</p>
<p>股价的上涨可以归因于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克承诺将花更多时间管理公司，而不是监督政府效率部 (DOGE)。马斯克还继续宣传特斯拉的机器人出租车和人工智能 (AI) 雄心。</p>
<p>股价在消息公布后上涨，但我们来看看为什么它可能还有更大的下行空间。</p>
<h2><strong>其核心汽车业务正在崩溃</strong></h2>
<p>马斯克的政治野心和在 DOGE 的时间严重损害了特斯拉品牌。他使大量潜在消费者感到疏远，尤其是那些更有可能购买电动车的人。虽然马斯克希望重新聚焦于特斯拉，但品牌所受到的损害似乎已经无法挽回。</p>
<p>特斯拉第一季度的数据显示，汽车交付量和收入均出现下降。季度交付量下降了 13%，降至 336,681 辆，而汽车收入则暴跌 20%，降至 140 亿美元。Model 3 和 Model Y 的交付量下降了 13%，而其他车型则下降了 24%。后者显示特斯拉独特设计的 Cybertruck 在销售上遇到了困难。</p>
<p>这似乎并不是一个季度的偶然现象。管理层撤回了全年的指引，称 “很难衡量全球贸易政策变化对汽车和能源供应链的影响。” 首席财务官维布哈夫·塔内贾在财报电话会议上承认公司在品牌形象上面临 “短期” 挑战。</p>
<p>然而，马斯克试图将销售不佳归因于宏观问题，称除了这一点外，特斯拉并没有看到 “需求减少”。然而，这与现实并不相符。例如，尽管特斯拉在本季度美国交付量下降了近 9%，但根据 Cox Automotive 的数据，美国整体电动车交付量却增长了超过 10%。与此同时，根据市场情报公司 Rho Motion 的数据，全球电动车销售在第一季度飙升了 29%，欧洲电动车销售增长了 22%，中国电动车销售增长了 36%。</p>
<p>这意味着尽管电动车市场仍然相当强劲，特斯拉的汽车销售却在下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU3ODcvcGFya2VkLWNhcnMtaW4tcGFya2luZy1sb3QuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU3ODcvcGFya2VkLWNhcnMtaW4tcGFya2luZy1sb3QuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
<h2><strong>更多空洞的承诺</strong></h2>
<p>随着核心汽车业务的挣扎，马斯克再次转向关于自动驾驶、机器人出租车和人工智能的空洞承诺。</p>
<p>他说，特斯拉将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀开始提供收费的机器人出租车服务，计划在 6 月启动，初期将有 10 到 20 辆车。随后将扩大车队，并计划在年底前迅速扩展到其他城市。他补充说，机器人出租车业务将在 2026 年中期产生显著影响。</p>
<p>然而，特斯拉坚持 6 月的时间表引发了许多疑问。到目前为止，该公司仅实现了 2 级自动化，这意味着汽车可以转向和控制速度，但驾驶员必须始终保持参与。机器人出租车需要 4 级自动化，即汽车可以在特定区域内自主驾驶。从 2 级自动化跃升到 4 级并不是一个小步骤，并且跳过了 3 级自动化，在 3 级下，汽车可以执行大部分驾驶任务，但在某些情况下驾驶员必须接管。</p>
<p>再次强调，特斯拉提供的关于如何实现 4 级自动化的细节非常有限。该公司决定放弃激光雷达（用于测量距离和运动）而采用仅依赖视觉的自动驾驶方法，这使其远远落后，甚至最近对其技术的测试也发现了许多问题。马斯克在自动驾驶方面有过多次过度承诺而未能兑现的历史，但 6 月的时间表如此接近，让人不得不认为这可能会实现。</p>
<p>也就是说，即使特斯拉推出机器人出租车服务，也并不一定能解决公司的问题。<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 已经在美国的这一领域占据了领先地位，而特斯拉在品牌声誉方面的问题也将延伸到机器人出租车业务。此外，大多数机器人出租车车队将在大城市运营，而这些城市往往倾向于自由派。</p>
<p>公司的前业务发展和政策负责人罗汉·帕特尔在科技商业网站《信息》上表示，根据特斯拉的内部分析，其机器人出租车雄心的回报将会很慢。</p>
<h2><strong>昂贵的股票</strong></h2>
<p>该股一直因马斯克向投资者出售的希望和梦想而获得巨额溢价估值，远超过经济现实。现在这种情况比以往任何时候都更加明显。</p>
<p>现实是，该公司目前正在经历市场份额和收入的下降。根据 2025 年分析师的估计，其市盈率（P/E）超过 100，而其盈利的美国汽车同行的市盈率均低于 10。尽管投资者对潜在的机器人出租车业务给予了巨大的价值，但拥有运营收费机器人出租车业务的 Alphabet 却没有获得这样的溢价。</p>
<p>考虑到特斯拉的估值和品牌损害，我认为该股未来可能还有更大的下跌空间。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>尽管季度业绩不佳，特斯拉的股票仍然上涨，股价在公司撤回年度指引后依然攀升。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对特斯拉的关注以及对机器人出租车和人工智能雄心的承诺推动了股价的上涨。然而，公司的核心汽车业务正面临困境，交付量和收入大幅下降。管理层承认品牌形象面临挑战，而马斯克将销售问题归因于宏观经济因素。尽管电动车市场强劲，特斯拉的销售却在下降，这引发了对未来表现和马斯克雄心勃勃计划可行性的担忧</p>

<p>Despite an abysmal quarter on nearly every metric, shares of <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 9.74%) climbed even after the electric vehicle (EV) maker pulled its guidance for the year. The stock is still down more than 35% in 2025 as of this writing, but over the past year, it has risen by around 80% despite a string of poor quarterly earnings results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在几乎所有指标上都表现糟糕，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 9.74%) 的股价仍然上涨，即使这家电动车制造商撤回了年度指引。截至目前，该股在 2025 年仍下跌超过 35%，但在过去一年中，尽管季度财报连续不佳，股价仍上涨了约 80%。</p>
</div><p>The stock's rise can be attributed to CEO Elon Musk pledging to spend more time running the company instead of overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk also continued to hype Tesla's robotaxi and artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价的上涨可以归因于首席执行官埃隆·马斯克承诺将花更多时间管理公司，而不是监督政府效率部 (DOGE)。马斯克还继续宣传特斯拉的机器人出租车和人工智能 (AI) 雄心。</p>
</div><p>The stock rallied on the news, but let's examine why it may have much more downside from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价在消息公布后上涨，但我们来看看为什么它可能还有更大的下行空间。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Its core auto business is cratering</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>其核心汽车业务正在崩溃</strong></h2>
</div><p>Musk's political ambitions and time at DOGE significantly damaged the Tesla brand. He alienated a large percentage of the population, and those who were more likely to buy EVs. It's great that Musk is looking to refocus on Tesla, but the damage to the brand seems to be already done.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克的政治野心和在 DOGE 的时间严重损害了特斯拉品牌。他使大量潜在消费者感到疏远，尤其是那些更有可能购买电动车的人。虽然马斯克希望重新聚焦于特斯拉，但品牌所受到的损害似乎已经无法挽回。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's first-quarter figures showed declines in both auto deliveries and revenue. Quarterly deliveries dropped 13% to 336,681, while auto revenue plunged 20% to $14 billion. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries fell 13%, while other models decreased by 24%. The latter shows that Tesla's distinct-looking Cybertruck is having trouble selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉第一季度的数据显示，汽车交付量和收入均出现下降。季度交付量下降了 13%，降至 336,681 辆，而汽车收入则暴跌 20%，降至 140 亿美元。Model 3 和 Model Y 的交付量下降了 13%，而其他车型则下降了 24%。后者显示特斯拉独特设计的 Cybertruck 在销售上遇到了困难。</p>
</div><p>This does not appear to be a one-quarter blip. Management pulled its full-year guidance, saying it was &#34;difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chain.&#34; Chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja acknowledged the &#34;near term&#34; challenges the company has with its brand image on its earnings conference call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这似乎并不是一个季度的偶然现象。管理层撤回了全年的指引，称 “很难衡量全球贸易政策变化对汽车和能源供应链的影响。” 首席财务官维布哈夫·塔内贾在财报电话会议上承认公司在品牌形象上面临 “短期” 挑战。</p>
</div><p>However, Musk tried to shift the poor sales to being a macro issue, saying that beside that, it saw &#34;no reduction in demand.&#34; However, that does not coincide with reality. For example, while Tesla saw a nearly 9% decline in U.S. deliveries in the quarter, according to Cox Automotive, overall U.S. EV deliveries jumped by more than 10%. Meanwhile, overall global EV sales soared 29% in the first quarter, according to market intelligence company Rho Motion, with European EV sales up 22% and Chinese EV sales up 36%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，马斯克试图将销售不佳归因于宏观问题，称除了这一点外，特斯拉并没有看到 “需求减少”。然而，这与现实并不相符。例如，尽管特斯拉在本季度美国交付量下降了近 9%，但根据 Cox Automotive 的数据，美国整体电动车交付量却增长了超过 10%。与此同时，根据市场情报公司 Rho Motion 的数据，全球电动车销售在第一季度飙升了 29%，欧洲电动车销售增长了 22%，中国电动车销售增长了 36%。</p>
</div><p>This means that Tesla is seeing its auto sales decline despite what is still a pretty robust market for EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着尽管电动车市场仍然相当强劲，特斯拉的汽车销售却在下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU3ODcvcGFya2VkLWNhcnMtaW4tcGFya2luZy1sb3QuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F815787%2Fparked-cars-in-parking-lot.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
</div><h2><strong>More lofty promises</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>更多空洞的承诺</strong></h2>
</div><p>With its core auto business struggling, Musk once again turned to lofty promises about autonomous driving, robotaxis, and AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着核心汽车业务的挣扎，马斯克再次转向关于自动驾驶、机器人出租车和人工智能的空洞承诺。</p>
</div><p>He said that it will begin offering paid robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, beginning in June, starting with 10 to 20 vehicles. It will then ramp up its fleet and look to rapidly expand to other cities by the end of the year. He added that the robotaxi business would have a notable impact by mid-2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，特斯拉将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀开始提供收费的机器人出租车服务，计划在 6 月启动，初期将有 10 到 20 辆车。随后将扩大车队，并计划在年底前迅速扩展到其他城市。他补充说，机器人出租车业务将在 2026 年中期产生显著影响。</p>
</div><p>Tesla sticking to its June timeline, though, raises a lot of questions. The company thus far has only achieved Level 2 automation, which means that the automobile can steer and control speed, but a driver must stay engaged at all times. A robotaxi would require Level 4 automation, where the automobile can drive itself in a specific area. The leap from Level 2 automation to Level 4 is not a small step and skips Level 3 automation, in which the car can perform most driving tasks, but the driver must take over in some conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特斯拉坚持 6 月的时间表引发了许多疑问。到目前为止，该公司仅实现了 2 级自动化，这意味着汽车可以转向和控制速度，但驾驶员必须始终保持参与。机器人出租车需要 4 级自动化，即汽车可以在特定区域内自主驾驶。从 2 级自动化跃升到 4 级并不是一个小步骤，并且跳过了 3 级自动化，在 3 级下，汽车可以执行大部分驾驶任务，但在某些情况下驾驶员必须接管。</p>
</div><p>Once again, it provided few details on how it was going to achieve Level 4 automation. The company's decision to eschew lidar (which uses lasers to measure distances and movement) and use a vision-only approach for autonomous driving has thus left it far behind, and even recent tests of its technology have found a lot of issues. Musk has a long history of overpromising and underdelivering when it comes to autonomous driving, but a June timeline is so close that you would have to think it could happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再次强调，特斯拉提供的关于如何实现 4 级自动化的细节非常有限。该公司决定放弃激光雷达（用于测量距离和运动）而采用仅依赖视觉的自动驾驶方法，这使其远远落后，甚至最近对其技术的测试也发现了许多问题。马斯克在自动驾驶方面有过多次过度承诺而未能兑现的历史，但 6 月的时间表如此接近，让人不得不认为这可能会实现。</p>
</div><p>That said, even if Tesla does launch a robotaxi service, it doesn't necessarily solve the company's issues. <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo has already taken the lead in the space in the U.S., and Tesla's problems with its brand reputation would extend to robotaxis as well. Meanwhile, most robotaxi fleets would operate in big cities, which tend to lean liberal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，即使特斯拉推出机器人出租车服务，也并不一定能解决公司的问题。<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo 已经在美国的这一领域占据了领先地位，而特斯拉在品牌声誉方面的问题也将延伸到机器人出租车业务。此外，大多数机器人出租车车队将在大城市运营，而这些城市往往倾向于自由派。</p>
</div><p>Rohan Patel, the company's former head of business development and policy, told <em>The Information</em>, a technology-focused business website, that based on Tesla's internal analysis, the payback for its robotaxi ambitions was going to be slow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的前业务发展和政策负责人罗汉·帕特尔在科技商业网站《信息》上表示，根据特斯拉的内部分析，其机器人出租车雄心的回报将会很慢。</p>
</div><h2><strong>An expensive stock</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>昂贵的股票</strong></h2>
</div><p>The stock has always gotten a huge premium valuation based on the hopes and dreams that Musk sells to investors, more than economic reality. That is the case now, more than ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股一直因马斯克向投资者出售的希望和梦想而获得巨额溢价估值，远超过经济现实。现在这种情况比以往任何时候都更加明显。</p>
</div><p>The reality is that the company is currently seeing its market share and revenue decline. It trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of over 100 based on 2025 analyst estimates, while its profitable U.S. auto peers all have multiples below 10. And while investors are placing a huge value on the potential robotaxi business, Alphabet, which has an operational paid robotaxi businesses, gets no such premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现实是，该公司目前正在经历市场份额和收入的下降。根据 2025 年分析师的估计，其市盈率（P/E）超过 100，而其盈利的美国汽车同行的市盈率均低于 10。尽管投资者对潜在的机器人出租车业务给予了巨大的价值，但拥有运营收费机器人出租车业务的 Alphabet 却没有获得这样的溢价。</p>
</div><p>Between Tesla's valuation and the brand damage that has been done, I think the stock could have a lot further to fall in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到特斯拉的估值和品牌损害，我认为该股未来可能还有更大的下跌空间。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Climbs Despite Pulling Guidance, but Is More Downside Ahead?

- 特斯拉股价在业绩不佳的情况下仍上涨，年初至今下跌超过 35%。
- 第一季度交付量和收入均下降，管理层撤回全年指引，称全球贸易政策影响难以评估。
- 尽管市场对电动车需求强劲，特斯拉却面临销量下滑和品牌形象受损的挑战。

尽管特斯拉撤回了业绩指引，其股价仍然上涨，但未来是否会有更多下跌空间？