<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）在过去 10 年中上涨超过 18,000%。在此期间，它是全球表现最好的股票之一，现在是全球市值第三大的公司。凭借在人工智能（AI）计算机芯片方面的领先创新，我相信持有英伟达股票的人在长期内会表现良好。</p>
<p>然而，我认为在半导体行业中，有一家公司比英伟达更值得投资：<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.57%）。作为全球最大的制造商，台积电实际上为英伟达和其他众多计算机芯片设计公司制造计算机芯片。以下是我认为这家公司在 10 年后会比英伟达更有价值的原因。</p>
<h2>一切始于台积电</h2>
<p>与英伟达相比，台积电是一家相对不为人知的公司，它是一家合同制造商，为其他公司制造计算机芯片，但不设计和竞争销售计算机芯片。它拥有广泛的客户，如 <strong>苹果</strong>、英伟达和 <strong>博通</strong>。</p>
<p>通过不断努力改善其制造流程，台积电是全球唯一一家能够制造用于 AI 产品的尖端计算机芯片的公司，除了三星可能也是如此。因此，像英伟达这样的客户很难离开台积电去寻找其他制造商，或者冒着在半导体 AI 竞争中落后的风险。</p>
<p>在我看来，台积电似乎在这种情况下拥有大部分的权力。报道称，台积电可能会在其位于亚利桑那州的制造厂提高 30% 的价格，以将关税成本转嫁给客户。对于像苹果或英伟达这样的客户来说，由于这些价格上涨而离开几乎是不可能的，或者尝试自己制造这些芯片。台积电的客户基本上被迫接受公司所说的芯片价格。</p>
<h2>稳定增长，客户多样化</h2>
<p>台积电的盈利增长没有英伟达那么迅猛，但在按营业收入计算时，它仍然是全球最大的公司之一。过去 12 个月，该公司产生了近 460 亿美元的营业收入，而英伟达的营业收入为 815 亿美元。</p>
<p>得益于全球对半导体和计算机芯片需求的稳定长期增长，台积电应该能够在未来 10 年保持这种稳定的增长。它还拥有客户多样化，这将帮助它在半导体需求来源不一的情况下保持强劲。如果英伟达失去市场份额，而 <strong>超微</strong> 或来自 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 的本土芯片获得份额，这仍将推动台积电的底线。如果苹果失去市场份额给其他智能手机制造商，那家公司很可能也会使用在台积电工厂制造的计算机芯片。</p>
<p>英伟达是一项对单一公司创新能力的投资，这在过去几年是一个不错的选择。然而，这使得英伟达的股票比台积电风险更大，因为台积电在这种关系中拥有大部分权力，并且对整个半导体市场的曝光面更广。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 营业收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>为什么台积电在 10 年后会比英伟达更有价值</h2>
<p>由于这种关系的权力动态，台积电的股票在 10 年后应该会比英伟达更有价值。它目前的市值为 8180 亿美元，而英伟达为 2.5 万亿美元，这使得这一跃升并非不切实际。在其历史的大部分时间里，英伟达的市值低于台积电，并且年收益水平也较低。</p>
<p>台积电可以提高客户的价格，以转嫁影响其自身收入报表的任何通货膨胀或关税成本。像英伟达这样的客户将不得不承担这些成本，将原本是英伟达的利润转移到台积电的利润上。如果由于美国的关税政策发生价格上涨，英伟达别无选择，只能接受这些涨价。</p>
<p>在过去几年中，英伟达从 AI 支出的激增中受益匪浅。但它并不能保证在 10 年后仍然是领先的半导体品牌。考虑到台积电在半导体制造方面的巨大领先优势，以及公司在技术和实际支出方面复制其工厂所需经历的困难，台积电在 10 年后很可能仍将是先进半导体的领先制造商。</p>
<p>基于这些原因，我认为台积电在 10 年后会比英伟达更有价值，并且对于以今天的价格购买的股东来说，表现会更好。</p>

台积电

<p>这篇文章预测，台积电将在未来十年内超越英伟达，成为市场价值更高的公司。尽管英伟达经历了显著的增长，但台积电作为主要科技公司的领先代工厂商，加上其提价能力和对半导体的稳定需求，使其处于有利位置。台积电多样化的客户基础和制造能力使其具备优势，相较于高度依赖人工智能技术创新的英伟达，台积电被视为风险较小的投资</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) is up over 18,000% in the last 10 years. It is one of the best-performing stocks in the world during that time and is now the third-largest company in the world by market capitalization. With its lead in innovation on artificial intelligence (AI) computer chips, I believe holders of Nvidia stock will do well over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）在过去 10 年中上涨超过 18,000%。在此期间，它是全球表现最好的股票之一，现在是全球市值第三大的公司。凭借在人工智能（AI）计算机芯片方面的领先创新，我相信持有英伟达股票的人在长期内会表现良好。</p>
</div><p>However, I think there is a better company in the semiconductor sector to buy instead of Nvidia: <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.57%). Known as TSMC, this gigantic manufacturer is the company that actually makes computer chips for Nvidia and a whole host of other computer chip designers. Here's why I believe the company will be worth more than Nvidia 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为在半导体行业中，有一家公司比英伟达更值得投资：<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.57%）。作为全球最大的制造商，台积电实际上为英伟达和其他众多计算机芯片设计公司制造计算机芯片。以下是我认为这家公司在 10 年后会比英伟达更有价值的原因。</p>
</div><h2>It all starts with TSMC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一切始于台积电</h2>
</div><p>A relatively unknown company compared to Nvidia, TSMC is a contract manufacturer that builds computer chips for other companies, but does not design and compete to sell computer chips itself. It has a wide range of customers such as <strong>Apple</strong>, Nvidia, and <strong>Broadcom</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与英伟达相比，台积电是一家相对不为人知的公司，它是一家合同制造商，为其他公司制造计算机芯片，但不设计和竞争销售计算机芯片。它拥有广泛的客户，如 <strong>苹果</strong>、英伟达和 <strong>博通</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Through its relentless drive to improve its manufacturing processes, TSMC is the only company in the world outside of maybe Samsung that can build cutting-edge computer chips utilized for AI products. For that reason, customers such as Nvidia will have a hard time leaving TSMC for another manufacturer or risk falling behind in the semiconductor AI race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过不断努力改善其制造流程，台积电是全球唯一一家能够制造用于 AI 产品的尖端计算机芯片的公司，除了三星可能也是如此。因此，像英伟达这样的客户很难离开台积电去寻找其他制造商，或者冒着在半导体 AI 竞争中落后的风险。</p>
</div><p>From my seat, TSMC seems to have most of the power in the situation. Reports are coming out that TSMC may raise prices by 30% at its fabrication facility in Arizona in order to pass on tariff costs to customers. It would be close to impossible for customers like Apple or Nvidia to leave because of these price hikes or try to manufacture these chips themselves. TSMC customers are essentially forced to take whatever price the company says its chips will cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，台积电似乎在这种情况下拥有大部分的权力。报道称，台积电可能会在其位于亚利桑那州的制造厂提高 30% 的价格，以将关税成本转嫁给客户。对于像苹果或英伟达这样的客户来说，由于这些价格上涨而离开几乎是不可能的，或者尝试自己制造这些芯片。台积电的客户基本上被迫接受公司所说的芯片价格。</p>
</div><h2>Steady growth, customer diversification</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稳定增长，客户多样化</h2>
</div><p>TSMC has not grown its earnings as explosively as Nvidia, but it is still one of the largest companies in the world when measured by operating income. The company generated almost $46 billion in operating earnings over the past 12 months compared to Nvidia's $81.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的盈利增长没有英伟达那么迅猛，但在按营业收入计算时，它仍然是全球最大的公司之一。过去 12 个月，该公司产生了近 460 亿美元的营业收入，而英伟达的营业收入为 815 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Backed by the steady long-term growth in demand for semiconductors and computer chips around the world, TSMC should be able to keep up this steady growth over the next 10 years. It is also has customer diversification that will help it stay strong regardless of where semiconductor demand is originating. If Nvidia loses market share and competitors such as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> or homegrown chips from <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Alphabet</strong> gain share, that is still going to boost TSMC's bottom line. If Apple loses market share to another smartphone maker, that company will most likely also be using computer chips made at a TSMC factory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于全球对半导体和计算机芯片需求的稳定长期增长，台积电应该能够在未来 10 年保持这种稳定的增长。它还拥有客户多样化，这将帮助它在半导体需求来源不一的情况下保持强劲。如果英伟达失去市场份额，而 <strong>超微</strong> 或来自 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>谷歌</strong> 的本土芯片获得份额，这仍将推动台积电的底线。如果苹果失去市场份额给其他智能手机制造商，那家公司很可能也会使用在台积电工厂制造的计算机芯片。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is a bet on a single company's ability to innovate ahead of the competition, which has been a good bet for years. However, it makes Nvidia a much riskier stock than TSMC, with TSMC holding most of the power in the relationship and having much broader exposure to the entire semiconductor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达是一项对单一公司创新能力的投资，这在过去几年是一个不错的选择。然而，这使得英伟达的股票比台积电风险更大，因为台积电在这种关系中拥有大部分权力，并且对整个半导体市场的曝光面更广。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/79f393966a204900a8dc12f428b094a8.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Operating Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 营业收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Why TSMC will be worth more than Nvidia in 10 years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么台积电在 10 年后会比英伟达更有价值</h2>
</div><p>Due to the power dynamics of the relationship, TSMC stock should be worth more than Nvidia 10 years from now. It has a current market cap of $818 billion compared to Nvidia's $2.5 trillion, making the leap not so far-fetched. For most of its history, Nvidia has been worth less than TSMC when measured by market capitalization and has generated a smaller level of annual earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于这种关系的权力动态，台积电的股票在 10 年后应该会比英伟达更有价值。它目前的市值为 8180 亿美元，而英伟达为 2.5 万亿美元，这使得这一跃升并非不切实际。在其历史的大部分时间里，英伟达的市值低于台积电，并且年收益水平也较低。</p>
</div><p>TSMC can raise prices on customers to pass off any inflation or tariff costs impacting its own income statement. Its customers such as Nvidia will have to eat these costs, transferring what was once a profit for Nvidia to a profit for TSMC. Nvidia has no choice but to accept these price hikes if they occur due to the tariff policies of the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电可以提高客户的价格，以转嫁影响其自身收入报表的任何通货膨胀或关税成本。像英伟达这样的客户将不得不承担这些成本，将原本是英伟达的利润转移到台积电的利润上。如果由于美国的关税政策发生价格上涨，英伟达别无选择，只能接受这些涨价。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has benefited mightily from the boom in AI spending in the last few years. But it is not guaranteed to be the leading semiconductor brand 10 years from now. Given its immense lead in semiconductor fabrication and the difficulties a company would have to go through to replicate its factories (both technologically and in terms of actual money spent), TSMC is likely to be the leading manufacturer of advanced semiconductors 10 years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，英伟达从 AI 支出的激增中受益匪浅。但它并不能保证在 10 年后仍然是领先的半导体品牌。考虑到台积电在半导体制造方面的巨大领先优势，以及公司在技术和实际支出方面复制其工厂所需经历的困难，台积电在 10 年后很可能仍将是先进半导体的领先制造商。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I think TSMC will be worth more than Nvidia 10 years from now and perform better for shareholders who buy at today's prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这些原因，我认为台积电在 10 年后会比英伟达更有价值，并且对于以今天的价格购买的股东来说，表现会更好。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 1 Stock That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia 10 Years From Now

- Nvidia 在过去 10 年上涨超过 18,000%，市值排名第三。  
- TSMC 是全球领先的半导体制造商，客户包括 Nvidia 和 Apple。  
- 预计 10 年后 TSMC 的市值将超过 Nvidia，因其定价能力和市场多样性。  

预测：十年后有一只股票的价值将超过英伟达