<p><strong>菲利普莫里斯国际</strong>(PM 0.06%) 的股票在最新的财报发布后创下历史新高。截至目前，该股票在 2025 年上涨近 40%，在过去一年中上涨超过 75%。我持有该股票，并在过去写过关于它的文章，包括去年四月我预测该股票可能很快突破其一年的交易区间。果然如此。</p>
<p>话虽如此，投资者现在真正想知道的是他们是否仍然可以购买该股票，还是已经太晚了。让我们仔细看看其第一季度的业绩。</p>
<h2><strong>强劲的销量增长</strong></h2>
<p>菲利普莫里斯最大的增长动力依然是 Zyn。对于不熟悉 Zyn 的人来说，它是一种由尼古丁粉末和调味料制成的袋装产品，而不是烟草，已经在美国市场引起了轰动。它在年轻人、办公室工作人员甚至喜欢其隐秘使用、口味和产品带来的快感的女性中变得非常受欢迎。</p>
<p>在第一季度，Zyn 的强劲增长持续，美国的发货量飙升 53%，达到 2.02 亿罐。国际发货量也增长了 53%，如果不包括已建立的北欧市场，则增长 182%。整体口腔产品的发货量增长了 27%。</p>
<p>不过，部分增长来自零售库存的补货。在零售层面，公司看到 Zyn 的实际销售量增长约 15%。预计随着店内可用性改善和市场营销力度的增加，这一增长将在未来几个月逐渐加速。由于业绩良好，现在预计美国 ZYN 的发货量将在 8 亿到 8.4 亿罐之间，高于之前 7800 万到 8200 万罐的预期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU4ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ3MjM0OC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU4ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ3MjM0OC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>Zyn 并不是公司在本季度唯一的强劲表现者。加热烟草单元（HTUs）包括 IQOS 系统的发货量几乎增长了 12%，达到 371 亿个单元。公司表示，日本的市场销售（即终端用户销售）增长了 9%，欧洲增长超过 7%。还注意到来自日本和欧洲以外城市的强劲增长，包括雅加达、首尔和墨西哥城。菲利普莫里斯的电子烟产品 VEEV 的发货量也增长了两倍以上，主要得益于欧洲的舱体增长。</p>
<p>与此同时，传统香烟的发货量保持稳定，增长 1.1%，达到 1448 亿个单元。其市场份额（不包括美国和中国）增长 0.2%，达到 23%；包括 HTUs 时增长 0.4%，达到 24.8%。</p>
<p>总体而言，剔除货币影响、收购和处置的有机收入同比增长 10%，达到 93 亿美元。调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长 17%，达到 1.76 美元。</p>
<p>在有机基础上，燃烧烟草的收入增长 4%，主要受价格上涨和适度增长的销量推动。无烟业务的有机收入激增 20%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>口腔产品 (Zyn)</th>
<th>HTUs</th>
<th>香烟</th>
<th>无烟</th>
<th>总计</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>销量增长</td>
<td>27.2%</td>
<td>11.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>有机收入增长</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>20.4%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>HTUs = 加热烟草单元。</p>
<p>毛利润的增长速度超过了收入，按有机计算增长了 16%，因为 Zyn 和 IQOS 的毛利率高于公司的传统香烟业务。按有机计算，毛利率同比上升 340 个基点。公司还指出，所有三类无烟产品的毛利率均有所改善，得益于 Zyn 和 IQOS 的价格上涨。</p>
<p>展望未来，菲利普莫里斯基本维持其全年展望，仅因货币因素对调整后的每股收益预测进行了小幅调整。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>指导</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>有机收入增长</td>
<td>6% 到 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益</td>
<td>7.01 到 7.14 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益增长（不包括货币影响）</td>
<td>10.5% 到 12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>销量增长</td>
<td>2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：菲利普莫里斯国际。EPS = 每股收益。</p>
<h2>现在购买菲利普莫里斯股票还晚吗？</h2>
<p>菲利普莫里斯继续看到由 Zyn 和 IQOS 主导的强劲增长。这两款产品都在良好增长，并且它们的单位经济效益优于菲利普莫里斯的传统香烟业务。尽管如此，其传统香烟业务也依然稳健，销量适度增长且定价能力强。这与在美国销售香烟的公司形成了鲜明对比。</p>
<p>Zyn 和 IQOS 也继续拥有良好的扩展机会。公司仍在美国增加产能以跟上 Zyn 的需求，同时刚开始在已建立的北欧市场之外进行国际扩展。与此同时，在收回 IQOS 的美国权利后，菲利普莫里斯刚开始在德克萨斯州奥斯汀测试 IQOS。希望能扩展到其他测试市场，随后在其新的 IQOS ILUMA 设备获得 FDA 批准后进行全面推出。</p>
<p>从估值的角度来看，该股票的前瞻市盈率为 23 倍，基于分析师对 2025 年的共识，PEG（市盈率/增长比）比率低于 0.4。PEG 比率低于 1 的股票通常被认为被低估，因此根据这一指标，该股票仍然便宜。</p>
<p>总体而言，菲利普莫里斯是一只在防御性行业中的成长股，具有吸引人的 3.2% 的前瞻性股息收益率。它在未来有良好的增长机会，并且由于倾向于使用本地制造，具有相当的关税抗性。因此，我认为投资者仍然可以考虑购买该股票，特别是在未来的任何回调时。</p>

菲利普莫里斯

<p>菲利普莫里斯国际的股票已飙升至历史新高，2025 年上涨近 40%，过去一年上涨超过 75%，这得益于强劲的财报业绩。主要增长动力包括尼古丁袋装产品 Zyn 和加热烟草单元（HTUs），报告显示显著的销量增长。公司预计 Zyn 的出货量将持续增长，并维持全年展望，预计有机收入增长在 6% 到 8% 之间。投资者在考虑是否已经为购买该股票太晚，鉴于其强劲的表现和无烟产品市场的扩展机会</p>

<p><strong>Philip Morris International</strong>(PM 0.06%) shares hit an all-time high following its latest earnings results. The stock is now up nearly 40% in 2025, as of this writing, and over 75% in the past year. I own the stock and have written about it in the past, including last April when I predicted that the stock could soon break out of its year-long trading range. Boy, has it ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>菲利普莫里斯国际</strong>(PM 0.06%) 的股票在最新的财报发布后创下历史新高。截至目前，该股票在 2025 年上涨近 40%，在过去一年中上涨超过 75%。我持有该股票，并在过去写过关于它的文章，包括去年四月我预测该股票可能很快突破其一年的交易区间。果然如此。</p>
</div><p>With that said, what investors really want to know now is whether they can still buy the stock or if it's too late. Let's take a closer look at its first-quarter results to find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，投资者现在真正想知道的是他们是否仍然可以购买该股票，还是已经太晚了。让我们仔细看看其第一季度的业绩。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Strong volume growth</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>强劲的销量增长</strong></h2>
</div><p>Philip Morris' biggest growth driver continues to be Zyn. For those unfamiliar with Zyn, it is a pouch made of nicotine powder and flavoring instead of tobacco, and it has taken the U.S. market by storm. It has become popular among young adults, office workers, and even women who like its discreet use, flavors, and the buzz they get from the product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲利普莫里斯最大的增长动力依然是 Zyn。对于不熟悉 Zyn 的人来说，它是一种由尼古丁粉末和调味料制成的袋装产品，而不是烟草，已经在美国市场引起了轰动。它在年轻人、办公室工作人员甚至喜欢其隐秘使用、口味和产品带来的快感的女性中变得非常受欢迎。</p>
</div><p>In Q1, Zyn's strong growth continued, with U.S. shipment volumes soaring 53% to 202 million cans. International volumes also rose 53%, or 182% excluding its established Nordic markets. Overall oral product shipments climbed 27%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，Zyn 的强劲增长持续，美国的发货量飙升 53%，达到 2.02 亿罐。国际发货量也增长了 53%，如果不包括已建立的北欧市场，则增长 182%。整体口腔产品的发货量增长了 27%。</p>
</div><p>That said, some of the growth came from retail inventory restocking. At the retail level, the company saw solid off-take volume growth for Zyn of around 15%. It expects this growth to gradually accelerate in the coming months as in-store availability improves and it increases its marketing efforts. Due to its solid results, it now expects U.S. ZYN shipments to be between 800 million and 840 million cans, up from a prior outlook of between 780 million and 820 million cans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，部分增长来自零售库存的补货。在零售层面，公司看到 Zyn 的实际销售量增长约 15%。预计随着店内可用性改善和市场营销力度的增加，这一增长将在未来几个月逐渐加速。由于业绩良好，现在预计美国 ZYN 的发货量将在 8 亿到 8.4 亿罐之间，高于之前 7800 万到 8200 万罐的预期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU4ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ3MjM0OC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F815887%2Fgettyimages-1421472348.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Zyn was not the company's only strong performer in the quarter. Heated tobacco units (HTUs) volumes, including the IQOS system, jumped nearly 12% to 37.1 billion units. The company said in-market sales (those to end users) rose 9% in Japan and more than 7% in Europe. It also noted strong growth coming from cities outside of Japan and Europe, including Jakarta, Seoul, and Mexico City. Philip Morris also saw shipment growth more than double for its e-vapor product, VEEV, led by pod growth in Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zyn 并不是公司在本季度唯一的强劲表现者。加热烟草单元（HTUs）包括 IQOS 系统的发货量几乎增长了 12%，达到 371 亿个单元。公司表示，日本的市场销售（即终端用户销售）增长了 9%，欧洲增长超过 7%。还注意到来自日本和欧洲以外城市的强劲增长，包括雅加达、首尔和墨西哥城。菲利普莫里斯的电子烟产品 VEEV 的发货量也增长了两倍以上，主要得益于欧洲的舱体增长。</p>
</div><p>Traditional cigarette volumes, meanwhile, remain steady, rising 1.1% to 144.8 billion units. Its market share, excluding the U.S. and China, rose 0.2% to 23%, or by 0.4% to 24.8% when including HTUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，传统香烟的发货量保持稳定，增长 1.1%，达到 1448 亿个单元。其市场份额（不包括美国和中国）增长 0.2%，达到 23%；包括 HTUs 时增长 0.4%，达到 24.8%。</p>
</div><p>Overall, organic revenue, which excludes currency effects, acquisitions, and dispositions, rose 10% year over year to $9.3 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 17% to $1.76.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，剔除货币影响、收购和处置的有机收入同比增长 10%，达到 93 亿美元。调整后的每股收益（EPS）增长 17%，达到 1.76 美元。</p>
</div><p>On an organic basis, combustible tobacco revenue rose 4%, driven by price increases and modestly growing volumes. The smoke-free business saw organic revenue surge 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在有机基础上，燃烧烟草的收入增长 4%，主要受价格上涨和适度增长的销量推动。无烟业务的有机收入激增 20%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Oral Products (Zyn)</th>
<th>HTUs</th>
<th>Cigarettes</th>
<th>Smoke-Free</th>
<th>Total</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Volume growth</td>
<td>27.2%</td>
<td>11.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Organic revenue growth</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>20.4%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>口腔产品 (Zyn)</th>
<th>HTUs</th>
<th>香烟</th>
<th>无烟</th>
<th>总计</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>销量增长</td>
<td>27.2%</td>
<td>11.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>有机收入增长</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>N/A</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>20.4%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>HTUs = heated tobacco units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HTUs = 加热烟草单元。</p>
</div><p>Gross profits grew faster than revenue, rising 16% organically, as both Zyn and IQOS have higher gross margins than the company's traditional cigarette business. Gross margins rose 340 basis points year over year on an organic basis. The company also noted that gross margins improved for all three of its smoke-free categories, helped by price increases for Zyn and IQOS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利润的增长速度超过了收入，按有机计算增长了 16%，因为 Zyn 和 IQOS 的毛利率高于公司的传统香烟业务。按有机计算，毛利率同比上升 340 个基点。公司还指出，所有三类无烟产品的毛利率均有所改善，得益于 Zyn 和 IQOS 的价格上涨。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Philip Morris largely maintained its full-year outlook, making just a slight adjustment to its adjusted EPS forecast due to currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，菲利普莫里斯基本维持其全年展望，仅因货币因素对调整后的每股收益预测进行了小幅调整。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>Guidance</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Organic revenue growth</td>
<td>6% to 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Adjusted EPS</td>
<td>$7.01 to $7.14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Adjusted EPS growth, excluding currency</td>
<td>10.5% to 12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Volume growth</td>
<td>2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>指导</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>有机收入增长</td>
<td>6% 到 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益</td>
<td>7.01 到 7.14 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>调整后每股收益增长（不包括货币影响）</td>
<td>10.5% 到 12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>销量增长</td>
<td>2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Philip Morris International. EPS = earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：菲利普莫里斯国际。EPS = 每股收益。</p>
</div><h2>Is it too late to buy Philip Morris stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在购买菲利普莫里斯股票还晚吗？</h2>
</div><p>Philip Morris continues to see strong growth led by Zyn and IQOS. Both products are growing nicely, and they both have better unit economics than Philip Morris' traditional cigarette business. That said, its traditional cigarette business also remains solid, with modest volume growth and strong pricing power. This is a much different picture from companies that sell cigarettes in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲利普莫里斯继续看到由 Zyn 和 IQOS 主导的强劲增长。这两款产品都在良好增长，并且它们的单位经济效益优于菲利普莫里斯的传统香烟业务。尽管如此，其传统香烟业务也依然稳健，销量适度增长且定价能力强。这与在美国销售香烟的公司形成了鲜明对比。</p>
</div><p>Zyn and IQOS also continue to have solid expansion opportunities ahead. The company is still increasing capacity in the U.S. to keep up with Zyn demand, while it is just starting to expand internationally outside its established Nordic markets. Meanwhile, after buying back the U.S. rights to IQOS, Philip Morris has just started testing IQOS in Austin, Texas. It hopes to expand to other test markets and then later do a full launch when its new IQOS ILUMA device receives FDA approval.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Zyn 和 IQOS 也继续拥有良好的扩展机会。公司仍在美国增加产能以跟上 Zyn 的需求，同时刚开始在已建立的北欧市场之外进行国际扩展。与此同时，在收回 IQOS 的美国权利后，菲利普莫里斯刚开始在德克萨斯州奥斯汀测试 IQOS。希望能扩展到其他测试市场，随后在其新的 IQOS ILUMA 设备获得 FDA 批准后进行全面推出。</p>
</div><p>From a valuation standpoint, the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 times, based on the analyst consensus for 2025, with a PEG (price/earnings-to-growth) ratio of under 0.4. Stocks with PEG ratios under 1 are typically considered undervalued, so based on this metric, the stock is still cheap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从估值的角度来看，该股票的前瞻市盈率为 23 倍，基于分析师对 2025 年的共识，PEG（市盈率/增长比）比率低于 0.4。PEG 比率低于 1 的股票通常被认为被低估，因此根据这一指标，该股票仍然便宜。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Philip Morris is a growth stock in a defensive industry, with an attractive 3.2% forward dividend yield. It has solid growth opportunities ahead, and it is pretty tariff resilient, given that it tends to use local manufacturing. As such, I think investors can still look to buy the stock, especially on any future dips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，菲利普莫里斯是一只在防御性行业中的成长股，具有吸引人的 3.2% 的前瞻性股息收益率。它在未来有良好的增长机会，并且由于倾向于使用本地制造，具有相当的关税抗性。因此，我认为投资者仍然可以考虑购买该股票，特别是在未来的任何回调时。</p>
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菲利普莫里斯国际的股票涨至历史新高，现在买入是否已经错过最佳时机？