<p>唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税已经在股市上造成了剧烈波动，持续数周，推动 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 进入调整期，投资者在努力解读持续贸易战的影响。</p>
<p>尽管股票因这一消息普遍下跌，但一些股票受到的打击更为严重。一个大名鼎鼎的股票是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.59%），这家在电子商务和云计算领域占主导地位的 “七大巨头” 成员，其股价已从峰值下跌超过 20%。</p>
<p>现在，一位知名亿万富翁正在指出亚马逊面临的关税风险。马克·库班（Mark Cuban），这位以在电视节目《鲨鱼坦克》中的角色和曾任 NBA 达拉斯小牛队老板而闻名的科技企业家，最近在社交媒体平台 Bluesky 上表示，当前的关税形势可能对亚马逊来说会变得 “糟糕”：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>如果这些关税持续下去，对亚马逊来说将会很糟糕，但对所有美国卖家来说将会非常好</p>
<p>[图片或嵌入]</p>
<p>-- 马克·库班 (@mcuban.bsky.social) 2025 年 4 月 5 日晚上 9:43</p>
</blockquote>
<p>亚马逊对特朗普的关税究竟有多脆弱？让我们探讨一下持续的贸易战可能对这家科技巨头意味着什么。</p>
<h2>亚马逊不那么秘密的脆弱性</h2>
<p>亚马逊已经建立了一个广泛的商业帝国，但该公司并不免疫于商业周期。事实上，它对经济放缓的暴露程度比 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 或 <strong>好市多</strong> 等零售同行更高，因为几乎所有的电子商务销售都来自于书籍、电子产品或服装和配饰等可自由支配的产品。而沃尔玛和好市多则大部分收入来自于食品杂货等日常消费品，亚马逊从食品杂货和其他日常消费品中获得的收入仅占其收入的一小部分。</p>
<p>亚马逊网络服务（AWS），其云计算服务通常是其主要的利润来源，也容易受到经济衰退的影响，因为其增长依赖于商业扩张和新企业的成立。</p>
<p>因此，对中国的关税可能会以两种方式影响亚马逊。首先，这将使零售商及其市场卖家进口中国商品的成本增加。其次，经济衰退或经济下滑可能会减缓消费者和企业的支出，影响其整体业务。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYxNjYvdHJhZGUtd2FyLXRhcmlmZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYxNjYvdHJhZGUtd2FyLXRhcmlmZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的关税暴露</h2>
<p>自从与中国的贸易战开始以来，仅仅几周的时间，但已经有迹象表明新关税正在影响亚马逊。</p>
<p>第三方卖家被迫提高从中国进口商品的价格，以适应新的进口税。电子商务数据公司 SmartScout 发现，自 4 月 9 日以来，它跟踪的 930 种产品（包括服装、电子产品和玩具等类别）的平均价格上涨了 29%。亚马逊回应称，提到的商品中价格上涨的不到 1%。</p>
<p>如果 SmartScout 的研究是准确的，其图表显示，亚马逊市场的销售额面临数百亿美元的关税风险，因为中国是亚马逊多个产品类别的重要来源。</p>
<p>亚马逊近四分之三的电子商务收入来自北美，显示出其对美国市场的显著依赖。受到关税困扰的第三方卖家可能会削减在亚马逊上的广告支出，而这对公司的利润来源至关重要。</p>
<p>亚马逊在关税方面的一个好消息是，其大部分运营收入来自亚马逊网络服务（AWS），而服务是无法被征收关税的。不过，经济不确定性可能会减缓该业务的增长，这在 2022 年发生过，当时股市对经济衰退的担忧加剧。</p>
<h2>亚马逊会陷入困境吗？</h2>
<p>如果对中国的关税持续存在，亚马逊及其第三方卖家可能会因公司规模和对中国的依赖而受到最严重的影响。</p>
<p>然而，对投资者来说有一个好消息：亚马逊面临的许多风险似乎已经在股价中反映出来。按市盈率（P/E）计算，其股价几乎是历史最低，市盈率仅为 34 倍，这只是对标准普尔 500 指数的适度溢价。在这个价格下，投资者确实期待公司的增长，但并不像股价曾经交易在三位数市盈率时那样。</p>
<p>我们将在下周四亚马逊公布第一季度财报时了解更多。虽然该公司确实面临关税的脆弱性，但其长期竞争优势无论贸易政策如何变化都应保持不变。</p>

亚马逊

<p>特朗普总统的关税正在引发股市动荡，亚马逊的股票下跌超过 20%。马克·库班警告称，如果关税持续，可能对亚马逊造成不利影响，因为亚马逊在很大程度上依赖于可自由支配的产品。这些关税增加了亚马逊及其卖家的进口成本，可能导致价格上涨和消费者支出减少。尽管亚马逊的 AWS 不受关税影响，但经济不确定性可能会阻碍其增长。尽管面临这些挑战，亚马逊的股票目前的市盈率相对较低，表明一些风险可能已经被市场定价</p>

<p>President Donald Trump's tariffs have been whipsawing the stock market for weeks now, pushing the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> into a correction as investors struggle to divine the impact of the ongoing trade war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税已经在股市上造成了剧烈波动，持续数周，推动 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 进入调整期，投资者在努力解读持续贸易战的影响。</p>
</div><p>While stocks have sold off broadly on the news, some names have gotten hit harder than others. One big-name stock that has fallen more than 20% from its peak is <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.59%), the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; member that dominates both e-commerce and cloud computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管股票因这一消息普遍下跌，但一些股票受到的打击更为严重。一个大名鼎鼎的股票是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.59%），这家在电子商务和云计算领域占主导地位的 “七大巨头” 成员，其股价已从峰值下跌超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>Now, one well-known billionaire is calling out Amazon's tariff risk. Mark Cuban, a tech entrepreneur who's known for his role on the TV show <em>Shark Tank</em> and as the former owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks, recently said on the social media site Bluesky that the current tariff situation could get &#34;ugly&#34; for Amazon:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，一位知名亿万富翁正在指出亚马逊面临的关税风险。马克·库班（Mark Cuban），这位以在电视节目《鲨鱼坦克》中的角色和曾任 NBA 达拉斯小牛队老板而闻名的科技企业家，最近在社交媒体平台 Bluesky 上表示，当前的关税形势可能对亚马逊来说会变得 “糟糕”：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>If these tariffs stick, it's going to be ugly for Amazon, but incredible for all the American sellers</p>
<p>[image or embed]</p>
<p>-- Mark Cuban (@mcuban.bsky.social) April 5, 2025 at 9:43 PM</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>如果这些关税持续下去，对亚马逊来说将会很糟糕，但对所有美国卖家来说将会非常好</p>
<p>[图片或嵌入]</p>
<p>-- 马克·库班 (@mcuban.bsky.social) 2025 年 4 月 5 日晚上 9:43</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Just how vulnerable is Amazon to Trump's tariffs? Let's explore what an extended trade war could mean for the tech giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊对特朗普的关税究竟有多脆弱？让我们探讨一下持续的贸易战可能对这家科技巨头意味着什么。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's not-so-secret vulnerability</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊不那么秘密的脆弱性</h2>
</div><p>Amazon has built a far-reaching business empire, but the company isn't immune to the business cycle. In fact, it has more exposure to economic slowdowns than retail peers like <strong>Walmart</strong> or <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong> because nearly all of its e-commerce sales come from discretionary products like books, electronics, or clothes and accessories. While both Walmart and Costco make a majority of their revenue from consumer staples like groceries, Amazon earns only a small fraction of its revenue from groceries and other staples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊已经建立了一个广泛的商业帝国，但该公司并不免疫于商业周期。事实上，它对经济放缓的暴露程度比 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 或 <strong>好市多</strong> 等零售同行更高，因为几乎所有的电子商务销售都来自于书籍、电子产品或服装和配饰等可自由支配的产品。而沃尔玛和好市多则大部分收入来自于食品杂货等日常消费品，亚马逊从食品杂货和其他日常消费品中获得的收入仅占其收入的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>Amazon Web Services, its cloud computing service that has typically been its primary engine of profits, is also vulnerable to a recession, as its growth depends on business expansion and formation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊网络服务（AWS），其云计算服务通常是其主要的利润来源，也容易受到经济衰退的影响，因为其增长依赖于商业扩张和新企业的成立。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, tariffs on China could impact Amazon in two ways. First, they will make it more expensive for the retailer and its marketplace sellers to import Chinese goods. Second, a recession or an economic downturn could slow both consumer and business spending, affecting its business across the board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，对中国的关税可能会以两种方式影响亚马逊。首先，这将使零售商及其市场卖家进口中国商品的成本增加。其次，经济衰退或经济下滑可能会减缓消费者和企业的支出，影响其整体业务。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYxNjYvdHJhZGUtd2FyLXRhcmlmZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816166%2Ftrade-war-tariff.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's tariff exposure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的关税暴露</h2>
</div><p>It's only been a few weeks since the trade war with China took off, but there are already signs that the new tariffs are affecting Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从与中国的贸易战开始以来，仅仅几周的时间，但已经有迹象表明新关税正在影响亚马逊。</p>
</div><p>Third-party sellers have been forced to raise prices on imports from China to accommodate the new import taxes. SmartScout, the e-commerce data company that made the chart shown in Mark Cuban's post above, found that prices on 930 products it tracked (in categories like clothing, electronics, and toys) rose 29% on average since April 9. Amazon responded by saying that fewer than 1% of the items referenced had their prices increased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三方卖家被迫提高从中国进口商品的价格，以适应新的进口税。电子商务数据公司 SmartScout 发现，自 4 月 9 日以来，它跟踪的 930 种产品（包括服装、电子产品和玩具等类别）的平均价格上涨了 29%。亚马逊回应称，提到的商品中价格上涨的不到 1%。</p>
</div><p>If SmartScout's research is accurate, its chart shows that tens of billions of dollars in Amazon Marketplace sales are at risk from the tariffs, as China is a significant source of many of Amazon's product categories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 SmartScout 的研究是准确的，其图表显示，亚马逊市场的销售额面临数百亿美元的关税风险，因为中国是亚马逊多个产品类别的重要来源。</p>
</div><p>Nearly three quarters of Amazon's e-commerce revenue comes from North America, showing its significant exposure to the American market. Third-party sellers that are struggling with tariffs are likely to cut back on advertising spending on Amazon, a significant source of profits for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊近四分之三的电子商务收入来自北美，显示出其对美国市场的显著依赖。受到关税困扰的第三方卖家可能会削减在亚马逊上的广告支出，而这对公司的利润来源至关重要。</p>
</div><p>The silver lining for Amazon on tariffs is that the majority of its operating income comes from Amazon Web Services (AWS), and services can't be tariffed. Still, economic uncertainty could slow down growth in that business, which happened in 2022, the last time fears of a recession hit the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在关税方面的一个好消息是，其大部分运营收入来自亚马逊网络服务（AWS），而服务是无法被征收关税的。不过，经济不确定性可能会减缓该业务的增长，这在 2022 年发生过，当时股市对经济衰退的担忧加剧。</p>
</div><h2>Is Amazon in trouble?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊会陷入困境吗？</h2>
</div><p>If the tariffs on China remain, Amazon and its third-party sellers are likely to be among the most affected due to the company's size and its exposure to China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果对中国的关税持续存在，亚马逊及其第三方卖家可能会因公司规模和对中国的依赖而受到最严重的影响。</p>
</div><p>However, there is good news for investors: Much of the risk facing Amazon seems to already be priced in to the stock. It's about as cheap as it's ever been on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis, trading at a multiple of just 34, which is only a modest premium to the S&amp;P 500. At that price, investors do expect growth from the company, but it's not like the days when the stock was trading at a triple-digit P/E valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对投资者来说有一个好消息：亚马逊面临的许多风险似乎已经在股价中反映出来。按市盈率（P/E）计算，其股价几乎是历史最低，市盈率仅为 34 倍，这只是对标准普尔 500 指数的适度溢价。在这个价格下，投资者确实期待公司的增长，但并不像股价曾经交易在三位数市盈率时那样。</p>
</div><p>We'll learn more when Amazon reports first-quarter earnings next Thursday. While the company is certainly vulnerable to tariffs, its long-term competitive advantages should remain intact no matter what happens with trade policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们将在下周四亚马逊公布第一季度财报时了解更多。虽然该公司确实面临关税的脆弱性，但其长期竞争优势无论贸易政策如何变化都应保持不变。</p>
</div>

As Trump's Tariffs Continue to Cause Chaos in the Market, Mark Cuban Warns About an "Ugly" Future for Amazon

- 特朗普的关税政策导致亚马逊股价下跌超过 20%。  
- 马克·库班警告称，关税可能对亚马逊造成严重影响。  
- 亚马逊的电商销售依赖于可选消费品，经济放缓将影响其业绩。

随着特朗普关税持续在市场上引发混乱，马克·库班警告称亚马逊可能面临一个 “艰难” 的未来