<p>尽管华尔街是真正的财富创造机器，但如果没有股票双向波动的能力，股市就不会被称为 “市场”。</p><p>在过去一个月中，<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 0.75%)、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.58%) 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 0.55%) 经历了历史性的波动。例如，标准普尔 500 指数在 4 月 3 日和 4 月 4 日录得历史上第五大两日百分比跌幅（-10.5%），然后在 4 月 9 日反弹，创下自成立以来单日最大点数涨幅。道琼斯和纳斯达克综合指数在 4 月 9 日也分别创下历史上最大的名义点数涨幅。</p><p>华尔街的剧烈波动主要被归咎于特朗普总统的关税政策。虽然不可否认，特朗普的关税计划的各个方面确实导致了短暂的恐惧和不确定性，但对股市来说，关税之外还有更大的担忧。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/6dd8e336fe2805caad26afae4cc4cd47?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="484" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/6dd8e336fe2805caad26afae4cc4cd47"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="whvcs7v7i">特朗普总统的关税计划导致短期紧张和不确定性</h2><p>目前，所有的目光都集中在特朗普及其政府身上。这是因为特朗普在 4 月 2 日宣布的 “解放日” 实施了 10% 的全球关税，并对与美国历史上存在贸易逆差的多个国家引入了更高的 “对等关税”。截至 4 月 9 日，特朗普已对除中国以外的所有国家暂停了 90 天的对等关税。</p><p>从纸面上看，关税相对简单明了。它们的设立是为了保护国内就业，并帮助美国商品在价格上更具竞争力。例如，如果外国汽车制造商在美国销售的车辆需要支付额外的关税，美国人可能更倾向于购买美国制造的汽车。</p><p>但并不是所有纸面上的内容都能转化为现实。</p><p>首先，关税有可能加剧或恶化与我们的盟友和其他关键合作伙伴（如中国）的贸易关系。其他国家可能会以自己的报复性关税作出回应，或者外国消费者/企业可能选择不购买美国制造的商品。</p><p>此外，特朗普的关税有可能重新点燃当前的通货膨胀率，通货膨胀率已从 2022 年超过 9% 的峰值降至目前不到 3%。特朗普政府并没有密切关注产出关税和输入关税之间的差异。前者是对进口到美国的成品征收的关税，而后者是对用于在国内完成成品的商品征收的关税。输入关税可能使美国产品变得更昂贵，从而在价格上不如从海外进口的商品具竞争力。</p><p>投资者对特朗普总统频繁更改哪些产品需缴纳关税、哪些国家需缴纳关税以及这些关税率感到不满。政府没有提供一致的信息或计划，这加剧了我们在华尔街所见的短期紧张和不确定性。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/494bda3f6d2ad55880642133ef5115a9?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="465" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/494bda3f6d2ad55880642133ef5115a9"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="5j7vrcw1d">华尔街面临更大的问题：盈利质量</h2><p>尽管投资者似乎在翘首以待关税消息，但这可能只是一个短期问题，就像 2018-2019 年特朗普对中国实施关税时一样。在特朗普的关税之外，真正的逆风和对股市特性的考验在于其盈利质量。</p><p>虽然情绪可能在短期内剧烈波动股票，但公司能否随着时间的推移增长销售和利润，最终决定了估值是否上升。尽管华尔街一些最具影响力的企业看起来健康，并且每股收益（EPS）在向好的方向发展，但深入分析显示，华尔街一些最重要的企业存在盈利问题。</p><p>例如，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) 通常被视为一家快速增长的电动汽车制造商，明智地利用其先发优势。它已经连续五年盈利，并正在扩大其附属业务，包括能源生产和储存，这将有助于多样化其收入来源。</p><p>但这也是一家持续从不可持续来源（如监管税收抵免和现金产生的利息收入）中获得更高比例税前收入的公司。事实上，如果没有 5.95 亿美元的汽车监管抵免，特斯拉在第一季度将宣布税前亏损。一家曾经的万亿公司不应该如此依赖不可持续的收入来源。</p><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.60%) 的情况也有些类似，它曾在市值方面长时间位居华尔街最有价值公司之首。苹果是消费者的最爱，其向服务导向业务的转型在首席执行官蒂姆·库克的监督下进展顺利。</p><p>然而，尽管苹果有着辉煌的历史，其整体增长引擎（包括其实体产品的销售（iPhone、Mac 和 iPad））却停滞不前。得益于其市场领先的股票回购计划，苹果能够掩盖这一表现不佳。但深入挖掘，投资者会发现，苹果的净收入已从 2022 财年（截至 9 月底）中的 998 亿美元下降至 2024 财年中的 937 亿美元。</p><p>即使是华尔街最新的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 1.22%）也无法逃脱指责。从表面上看，Palantir 已经实现了持续盈利，并保持了两位数的增长率，这在很大程度上得益于其 AI 驱动的 Gotham 平台与美国政府签署的多年合同。</p><p>尽管其令人瞩目的增长率和尖端的 AI 关联，Palantir 的税前收入中有相当大一部分来自于其超过 52 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券所产生的利息——2024 年为 1.968 亿美元，占 4.892 亿美元的税前收入。Palantir 在其估值高达销售额的 96 倍时，竟有 40% 的税前收入来自非创新来源（利息收入），这并不可持续。</p><p>考虑到股市在 2025 年以其 154 年历史上第三高的估值进入，盈利质量是一个 <i>严重</i> 的问题。标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率（P/E Ratio），也可以称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE Ratio），在 2024 年 12 月几乎达到了 39。作为参考，自 1871 年 1 月以来，Shiller 市盈率的平均值为 17.23。</p><p>在标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率超过 30 的五个先前实例中，最终都伴随着道琼斯、标准普尔 500 和/或纳斯达克综合指数至少 20% 的下跌。高估值在长期内是不可容忍的，这使得在市场处于历史高昂倍数时，盈利质量显得尤为重要。</p><p>除非美国最具影响力的企业开始在关键领域交付成果，否则将面临比关税更大的挑战。</p>

苹果

特斯拉

<p>最近股市经历了显著的波动，标普 500 和道琼斯等主要指数面临历史性的下跌和上涨。尽管特朗普总统的关税政策造成了短期的不确定性，但投资者更关心的是企业盈利的质量。尽管特斯拉和苹果等公司在市场上占据重要地位，但它们越来越依赖不可持续的收入来源，这引发了对其长期盈利能力的质疑。这种对盈利质量的关注可能会掩盖关税消息对华尔街的即时影响</p>

<p>Although Wall Street is a bona fide wealth-building machine, the stock market wouldn't be a &#34;market&#34; without the ability for equities to move in both directions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管华尔街是真正的财富创造机器，但如果没有股票双向波动的能力，股市就不会被称为 “市场”。</p>
</div><p>Over the last month, the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI 0.75%), <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.58%), and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC 0.55%) have endured historic bouts of volatility. For instance, the S&amp;P 500 recorded its fifth-largest two-day percentage decline on record (-10.5%) on April 3 and April 4, then turned around to register its largest single-session point gain since its inception on April 9. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite also logged their respective biggest nominal point gains in history on April 9.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一个月中，<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI 0.75%)、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.58%) 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC 0.55%) 经历了历史性的波动。例如，标准普尔 500 指数在 4 月 3 日和 4 月 4 日录得历史上第五大两日百分比跌幅（-10.5%），然后在 4 月 9 日反弹，创下自成立以来单日最大点数涨幅。道琼斯和纳斯达克综合指数在 4 月 9 日也分别创下历史上最大的名义点数涨幅。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street's whiplash has primarily been blamed on President Donald Trump's tariff policy. While there's no denying that short-lived fear and uncertainty have resulted from various aspects of the president's tariff plans, there's a far bigger worry for the stock market than tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的剧烈波动主要被归咎于特朗普总统的关税政策。虽然不可否认，特朗普的关税计划的各个方面确实导致了短暂的恐惧和不确定性，但对股市来说，关税之外还有更大的担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYyMzAvbnlzZS13YWxsLXN0cmVldC1zdG9jay1leGNoYW5nZS1pbnZlc3QtYnV5LXNlbGwtZG93LWpvbmVzLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816230%2Fnyse-wall-street-stock-exchange-invest-buy-sell-dow-jones-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>President Trump's tariff plans lead to short-term jitters and uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普总统的关税计划导致短期紧张和不确定性</h2>
</div><p>For the moment, all eyes are on Donald Trump and his administration. This follows Trump's &#34;Liberation Day&#34; announcement on April 2, which implemented a 10% global tariff, as well as introduced higher &#34;reciprocal tariffs&#34; on dozens of countries that have historically run trade deficits with the U.S. Trump has since placed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China (as of April 9).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，所有的目光都集中在特朗普及其政府身上。这是因为特朗普在 4 月 2 日宣布的 “解放日” 实施了 10% 的全球关税，并对与美国历史上存在贸易逆差的多个国家引入了更高的 “对等关税”。截至 4 月 9 日，特朗普已对除中国以外的所有国家暂停了 90 天的对等关税。</p>
</div><p>On paper, tariffs are relatively cut-and-dried. They're put in place to protect domestic jobs and help make American goods more price competitive. For example, if foreign automakers have to pay an added duty on their vehicles sold in the U.S., Americans might be more likely to purchase American-made vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从纸面上看，关税相对简单明了。它们的设立是为了保护国内就业，并帮助美国商品在价格上更具竞争力。例如，如果外国汽车制造商在美国销售的车辆需要支付额外的关税，美国人可能更倾向于购买美国制造的汽车。</p>
</div><p>But not everything that's laid out on paper translates into the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但并不是所有纸面上的内容都能转化为现实。</p>
</div><p>For one, tariffs run the risk of straining or worsening trade relations with our allies and other key partners, such as China. Other countries may respond with retaliatory tariffs of their own, or foreign consumers/businesses may opt not to buy American-made goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，关税有可能加剧或恶化与我们的盟友和其他关键合作伙伴（如中国）的贸易关系。其他国家可能会以自己的报复性关税作出回应，或者外国消费者/企业可能选择不购买美国制造的商品。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Trump's tariffs have the potential to reignite the prevailing rate of inflation, which has fallen from a peak of more than 9% in 2022 to less than 3% currently. The Trump administration isn't paying close attention to the difference between output and input tariffs. Whereas the former is a duty placed on a finished product imported into the U.S., the latter is placed on a good used to complete a finished product domestically. Input tariffs can make American products more expensive and less price-competitive with those being brought in from overseas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特朗普的关税有可能重新点燃当前的通货膨胀率，通货膨胀率已从 2022 年超过 9% 的峰值降至目前不到 3%。特朗普政府并没有密切关注产出关税和输入关税之间的差异。前者是对进口到美国的成品征收的关税，而后者是对用于在国内完成成品的商品征收的关税。输入关税可能使美国产品变得更昂贵，从而在价格上不如从海外进口的商品具竞争力。</p>
</div><p>Investors also aren't happy with President Trump regularly changing which products are subject to tariffs, which countries are paying tariffs, and what those tariff rates are. There's been no consistent message or game plan from the administration, which is fueling the short-term jitters and uncertainty we're witnessing on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对特朗普总统频繁更改哪些产品需缴纳关税、哪些国家需缴纳关税以及这些关税率感到不满。政府没有提供一致的信息或计划，这加剧了我们在华尔街所见的短期紧张和不确定性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYyMzAvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816230%2Faccountant-balance-sheet-corporate-income-statement-earnings-calculator-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street has a far bigger problem: Earnings quality</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街面临更大的问题：盈利质量</h2>
</div><p>Though investors are seemingly waiting on the edge of their seat for tariff news, this is likely to be a short-term issue, as it was in 2018-2019 when Trump instituted tariffs on China. Beyond Trump's tariffs lies a true headwind and test of the stock market's character -- its earnings quality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管投资者似乎在翘首以待关税消息，但这可能只是一个短期问题，就像 2018-2019 年特朗普对中国实施关税时一样。在特朗普的关税之外，真正的逆风和对股市特性的考验在于其盈利质量。</p>
</div><p>While emotions can whipsaw equities over short periods, the ability for companies to grow their sales and profits over time is what ultimately determines if valuations climb. Although many of Wall Street's most-influential businesses appear to be healthy and moving their earnings per share (EPS) needle in the right direction, a deeper dive shows that some of Wall Street's most-important businesses have an earnings problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然情绪可能在短期内剧烈波动股票，但公司能否随着时间的推移增长销售和利润，最终决定了估值是否上升。尽管华尔街一些最具影响力的企业看起来健康，并且每股收益（EPS）在向好的方向发展，但深入分析显示，华尔街一些最重要的企业存在盈利问题。</p>
</div><p>For instance, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) is commonly viewed as a fast-growing electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer that's wisely riding its first-mover advantages. It's been profitable for five consecutive years and is the midst of ramping up its ancillary operations, including energy generation and storage, which will help to diversify its revenue stream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) 通常被视为一家快速增长的电动汽车制造商，明智地利用其先发优势。它已经连续五年盈利，并正在扩大其附属业务，包括能源生产和储存，这将有助于多样化其收入来源。</p>
</div><p>But it's also a company that's been consistently generating a higher percentage of its pre-tax income from unsustainable sources, such as regulatory tax credits and interest income earned on its cash. In fact, Tesla would have announced a pre-tax <em>loss</em> for the first quarter without the aid of $595 million in automotive regulatory credits, which are given to it for free by governments. A former trillion-dollar company shouldn't be this reliant on unsustainable income sources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这也是一家持续从不可持续来源（如监管税收抵免和现金产生的利息收入）中获得更高比例税前收入的公司。事实上，如果没有 5.95 亿美元的汽车监管抵免，特斯拉在第一季度将宣布税前亏损。一家曾经的万亿公司不应该如此依赖不可持续的收入来源。</p>
</div><p>It's somewhat of a similar story for <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.60%), which has spent quite a bit of time atop the pedestal as Wall Street's most-valuable company by market cap. Apple is a consumer favorite, and its push to become a services-oriented business, which is being overseen by CEO Tim Cook, is working out nicely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.60%) 的情况也有些类似，它曾在市值方面长时间位居华尔街最有价值公司之首。苹果是消费者的最爱，其向服务导向业务的转型在首席执行官蒂姆·库克的监督下进展顺利。</p>
</div><p>Yet in spite of Apple's rich history, its collective growth engine, which includes the sale of its physical products (iPhone, Mac, and iPad), has stalled. Thanks to its market-leading share repurchase program, which helps to support or lift its EPS, Apple has been able to sweep this underperformance under the rug. But digging below the surface, investors will find that Apple's net income has declined from $99.8 billion in fiscal 2022 (ended in late September) to $93.7 billion in fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管苹果有着辉煌的历史，其整体增长引擎（包括其实体产品的销售（iPhone、Mac 和 iPad））却停滞不前。得益于其市场领先的股票回购计划，苹果能够掩盖这一表现不佳。但深入挖掘，投资者会发现，苹果的净收入已从 2022 财年（截至 9 月底）中的 998 亿美元下降至 2024 财年中的 937 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Even Wall Street's newest artificial intelligence (AI) darling <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 1.22%) can't escape the finger-pointing. On the surface, Palantir has made the push to recurring profitability and is sustaining a double-digit growth rate, largely due to the multi-year contracts its AI-driven Gotham platform has signed with the U.S. government.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是华尔街最新的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 1.22%）也无法逃脱指责。从表面上看，Palantir 已经实现了持续盈利，并保持了两位数的增长率，这在很大程度上得益于其 AI 驱动的 Gotham 平台与美国政府签署的多年合同。</p>
</div><p>Despite its eye-popping growth rate and cutting-edge AI ties, Palantir generates a sizable percentage of its pre-tax income from interest earned on its more than $5.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities -- $196.8 million out of $489.2 million in 2024. Palantir netting 40% of its pre-tax income from a noninnovative source (interest income) when it's valued at a whopping 96 times sales isn't sustainable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其令人瞩目的增长率和尖端的 AI 关联，Palantir 的税前收入中有相当大一部分来自于其超过 52 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券所产生的利息——2024 年为 1.968 亿美元，占 4.892 亿美元的税前收入。Palantir 在其估值高达销售额的 96 倍时，竟有 40% 的税前收入来自非创新来源（利息收入），这并不可持续。</p>
</div><p>Earnings quality is a <em>serious</em> issue considering the stock market entered 2025 at its third-priciest valuation when back-tested 154 years. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) Ratio, which you may also see referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio), almost hit 39 in December 2024. For context, the average Shiller P/E Ratio since January 1871 is 17.23.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到股市在 2025 年以其 154 年历史上第三高的估值进入，盈利质量是一个 <em>严重</em> 的问题。标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率（P/E Ratio），也可以称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE Ratio），在 2024 年 12 月几乎达到了 39。作为参考，自 1871 年 1 月以来，Shiller 市盈率的平均值为 17.23。</p>
</div><p>The five previous instances where the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E topped 30 were all eventually followed by declines of at least 20% in the Dow, S&amp;P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite. Premium valuations aren't tolerated over the long run, which makes earnings quality all the more important with the market at a historically expensive multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率超过 30 的五个先前实例中，最终都伴随着道琼斯、标准普尔 500 和/或纳斯达克综合指数至少 20% 的下跌。高估值在长期内是不可容忍的，这使得在市场处于历史高昂倍数时，盈利质量显得尤为重要。</p>
</div><p>Unless America's most-influential businesses begin delivering where it counts, there will be bigger fish to fry than tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非美国最具影响力的企业开始在关键领域交付成果，否则将面临比关税更大的挑战。</p>
</div>

Think Tariffs Are Wall Street's Biggest Worry? Then You're Probably Not Paying Attention to This Much Larger Problem.

- 道琼斯、标普 500 和纳斯达克在过去一个月经历了剧烈波动。  
- 特朗普的关税政策引发短期不安，但更大问题在于企业盈利质量。  
- 盈利质量差可能导致市场在高估值下面临更大风险。

认为关税是华尔街最大的担忧？那么你可能没有关注到这个更大的问题