<p>许多投资者的注意力集中在 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.06%）及其最近令人失望的第一季度业绩上。在公司公布这些业绩之前，长期看好特斯拉的 Deepwater Asset Management 的 Gene Munster 曾表示，“2025 年对这家电动车制造商来说是一个无关紧要的年份。”</p><p>以下是这一评估可能正确的原因，以及特斯拉是否采取了正确的步骤以在 2026 年重回正轨。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d941caf5c98b6662e8ed98399c898f29?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d941caf5c98b6662e8ed98399c898f29"/></figure><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p><h2 id="051eav65">为什么 2025 年可能是一个无关紧要的年份</h2><p>我们才刚进入年初四个月，因此说这一年对特斯拉没有太大意义似乎有些早。然而，形势已经显而易见。如果你错过了，这里是特斯拉第一季度的令人失望的细节：</p><ul><li>汽车销售额同比下降 20%，约为 140 亿美元。</li><li>净收入下降 71%，降至 4.09 亿美元。</li><li>总收入下降 9%，降至 193 亿美元。</li><li>每股调整后收益（EPS）为 0.27 美元，远低于华尔街共识预期的 0.39 美元。</li></ul><p>特斯拉表示，销售额下降部分是由于对其四个工厂进行调整，以准备生产更新版的 Model Y，这导致了几周的生产损失。公司还提到，车辆平均售价（ASP）下降和车辆激励措施减少也是因素。</p><p>特斯拉的管理层在业绩中还指出，关税造成的贸易困难也导致了不稳定。</p><p>公司在季度财报中提到，我引用：“很难衡量全球贸易政策变化对汽车和能源供应链、我们的成本结构以及耐用消费品和相关服务需求的影响。”</p><p>这简直是轻描淡写，考虑到整个汽车市场目前正处于动荡之中，努力适应特朗普总统的关税。现实是，特斯拉在年初的表现非常糟糕，如果一些关税继续存在，整个汽车行业在今年剩余时间（甚至更长时间）可能会面临困境。</p><p>例如，仅对电动车电池的关税就可能使电动车公司和电池生产商的成本增加约 80 亿美元。如果特朗普继续实施他最近关于征收半导体关税的言论，电动车价格也可能受到影响。</p><p>如果这些还不够糟糕，许多经济学家已提高了对未来 12 个月内经济衰退的预测。最近的《华尔街日报》调查发现，一些经济学家将衰退的概率提高到 45%，而年初时约为 20%。</p><p>任何经济放缓当然会对特斯拉今年改善汽车销售的能力施加额外压力。</p><h2 id="exxqe2cpm">2026 年会更好吗？</h2><p>虽然 2025 年剩余时间对特斯拉来说可能会很艰难，但有几件事情可能会在 2026 年帮助公司，尽管我对此仍持怀疑态度。</p><p>第一件事是马斯克退出政府效率部（DOGE）的领导职务，重新专注于特斯拉的运营。马斯克在第一季度的财报电话会议上表示，“……我认为从下个月，即 5 月开始，我在 DOGE 的时间分配将显著减少。” 他补充说，他将继续每周在 DOGE 待一到两天。</p><p>虽然一些投资者对马斯克的言论感到高兴，但我认为马斯克在 DOGE 的工作对特斯拉品牌的负面影响可能会持续，即使他将更多注意力放在特斯拉上。例如，最近的一项调查发现，47% 的美国人对特斯拉持负面看法，只有 27% 的人对该公司持积极看法。与此相比，<strong>通用汽车</strong> 只有 10% 的美国人对其持负面看法。</p><p>当然，品牌声誉是可以重建的，但如果马斯克在特朗普任期内以某种身份继续留在 DOGE，正如马斯克所说的那样，我认为特斯拉的品牌将继续受到负面影响。</p><p>另一件可能提升特斯拉明年前景的事情是，如果公司最终推出期待已久的更便宜的车型。这越来越像是其 Model Y 的一个版本——没有多余的配置——可能售价低于 30,000 美元。特斯拉在财报电话会议上表示，便宜车型的生产应在 6 月开始。</p><p>目前美国新电动车的平均交易价格约为 52,200 美元，因此明年推出一款显著低价的电动车可能会帮助特斯拉吸引预算较小的买家。</p><p>但尽管有这些机会，我认为特斯拉面临的挑战依然艰巨。特朗普的关税正在给汽车市场带来重大不确定性，特斯拉的品牌因马斯克而受到影响，许多美国人对潜在的经济衰退感到担忧。</p><p>这些都是特斯拉面临的重要逆风，投资者将不得不等待更长时间才能看到这些因素如何影响公司。考虑到特斯拉品牌、整个汽车市场和经济的不确定性，2026 年可能为时已晚，难以期待特斯拉的反弹。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉第一季度的业绩显示汽车销售下降了 20%，净收入下降了 71%，这导致一些分析师将 2025 年称为公司 “浪费的一年”。造成这一下滑的因素包括 Model Y 的生产变更、车辆价格降低以及由于关税导致的贸易困难。经济学家预测衰退的可能性为 45%，这可能进一步影响销售。尽管人们对 2026 年有所期待，认为可能会推出新车型并转变领导层的关注点，但特斯拉的品牌和市场地位仍面临重大挑战</p>

<p>A lot of investor attention has been directed toward <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) and the company's recent disappointing first-quarter results. Even before the company reported those results, longtime Tesla bull Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management said that &#34;2025 is a throwaway year&#34; for the EV maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多投资者的注意力集中在 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.06%）及其最近令人失望的第一季度业绩上。在公司公布这些业绩之前，长期看好特斯拉的 Deepwater Asset Management 的 Gene Munster 曾表示，“2025 年对这家电动车制造商来说是一个无关紧要的年份。”</p>
</div><p>Here's why that assessment is likely correct and if Tesla is taking the right steps to get back on track for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是这一评估可能正确的原因，以及特斯拉是否采取了正确的步骤以在 2026 年重回正轨。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYzMDkvbmV3bW9kZWx5XzU5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816309%2Fnewmodely_59.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Why 2025 is likely a throwaway year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 2025 年可能是一个无关紧要的年份</h2>
</div><p>We're just four months into the year, so it seems a little early to be saying that this year won't amount to much for Tesla. However, the writing is on the wall. In case you missed it, here are the uninspiring details from Tesla's first quarter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们才刚进入年初四个月，因此说这一年对特斯拉没有太大意义似乎有些早。然而，形势已经显而易见。如果你错过了，这里是特斯拉第一季度的令人失望的细节：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Automotive sales declined 20% from the year-ago quarter to about $14 billion.</li>
<li>Net income dropped 71% to $409 million.</li>
<li>Total revenue was down 9% to $19.3 billion.</li>
<li>Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.27, far below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $0.39.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>汽车销售额同比下降 20%，约为 140 亿美元。</li>
<li>净收入下降 71%，降至 4.09 亿美元。</li>
<li>总收入下降 9%，降至 193 亿美元。</li>
<li>每股调整后收益（EPS）为 0.27 美元，远低于华尔街共识预期的 0.39 美元。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Tesla said part of the sales decline came from making changes to four of its plants to get ready for production of an updated version of the Model Y, which caused several weeks of lost production. The company also mentioned lower vehicle average selling prices (ASPs) and fewer vehicle incentives as factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉表示，销售额下降部分是由于对其四个工厂进行调整，以准备生产更新版的 Model Y，这导致了几周的生产损失。公司还提到，车辆平均售价（ASP）下降和车辆激励措施减少也是因素。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's management also noted in the results that trade difficulties caused by tariffs are causing instability as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的管理层在业绩中还指出，关税造成的贸易困难也导致了不稳定。</p>
</div><p>The company noted in its quarterly earnings presenation, and I quote, &#34;It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade policy on the automotive and energy supply chains, our cost structure, and demand for durable goods and related services.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司在季度财报中提到，我引用：“很难衡量全球贸易政策变化对汽车和能源供应链、我们的成本结构以及耐用消费品和相关服务需求的影响。”</p>
</div><p>That's an understatement, considering the entire automotive market is reeling right now as it tries to figure out how to adjust to President Trump's tariffs. The reality is that Tesla had a very poor beginning to the year, and the auto industry as a whole could have a bad rest of the year (and longer) if some tariffs stay in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这简直是轻描淡写，考虑到整个汽车市场目前正处于动荡之中，努力适应特朗普总统的关税。现实是，特斯拉在年初的表现非常糟糕，如果一些关税继续存在，整个汽车行业在今年剩余时间（甚至更长时间）可能会面临困境。</p>
</div><p>For example, tariffs impacting EV batteries alone could increase costs by an estimated $8 billion for electric car companies and battery producers. If Trump follows through on his recent comments about enacting semiconductor tariffs, EV prices would likely feel the pain as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，仅对电动车电池的关税就可能使电动车公司和电池生产商的成本增加约 80 亿美元。如果特朗普继续实施他最近关于征收半导体关税的言论，电动车价格也可能受到影响。</p>
</div><p>If all of that weren't bad enough, many economists have increased their predictions of a recession occurring in the next 12 months. A recent <em>Wall Street Journal</em> survey found that some economists have raised their probability up to 45%, up from about 20% at the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这些还不够糟糕，许多经济学家已提高了对未来 12 个月内经济衰退的预测。最近的《华尔街日报》调查发现，一些经济学家将衰退的概率提高到 45%，而年初时约为 20%。</p>
</div><p>Any economic slowdown would, of course, put additional pressure on Tesla's ability to improve vehicle sales this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何经济放缓当然会对特斯拉今年改善汽车销售的能力施加额外压力。</p>
</div><h2>Will 2026 be better?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年会更好吗？</h2>
</div><p>While the remainder of 2025 is likely to be rough for Tesla, there are a couple of things that could potentially help the company in 2026, though I remain a bit skeptical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 2025 年剩余时间对特斯拉来说可能会很艰难，但有几件事情可能会在 2026 年帮助公司，尽管我对此仍持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>The first one is Musk stepping away from heading up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and returning his focus to running Tesla. Musk said on the first-quarter earnings call, &#34;... I think starting probably next month, May, my time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly.&#34; He added that he'll continue to spend one or two days per week at DOGE.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一件事是马斯克退出政府效率部（DOGE）的领导职务，重新专注于特斯拉的运营。马斯克在第一季度的财报电话会议上表示，“……我认为从下个月，即 5 月开始，我在 DOGE 的时间分配将显著减少。” 他补充说，他将继续每周在 DOGE 待一到两天。</p>
</div><p>While some investors were happy with Musk's comments, I think the negative impact on Tesla's brand from Musk's work at DOGE may continue even as he focuses more attention on Tesla. For example, a recent survey found that 47% of Americans have a negative view of Tesla, and just 27% of them view the company positively. Contrast that with <strong>General Motors</strong>, in which just 10% of Americans view it negatively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然一些投资者对马斯克的言论感到高兴，但我认为马斯克在 DOGE 的工作对特斯拉品牌的负面影响可能会持续，即使他将更多注意力放在特斯拉上。例如，最近的一项调查发现，47% 的美国人对特斯拉持负面看法，只有 27% 的人对该公司持积极看法。与此相比，<strong>通用汽车</strong> 只有 10% 的美国人对其持负面看法。</p>
</div><p>Brand reputations can be rebuilt, of course, but if Musk stays on at DOGE in some capacity throughout Trump's term, which is what Musk says he'll do, then I think Tesla's brand will continue to be negatively impacted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，品牌声誉是可以重建的，但如果马斯克在特朗普任期内以某种身份继续留在 DOGE，正如马斯克所说的那样，我认为特斯拉的品牌将继续受到负面影响。</p>
</div><p>Another thing that could potentially boost Tesla's prospects next year is if the company finally introduces a long-awaited cheaper vehicle. That's increasingly looking like a version of its Model Y -- without the bells and whistles -- that could potentially cost under $30,000. Tesla said on the earnings call that production of the cheaper model should begin in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一件可能提升特斯拉明年前景的事情是，如果公司最终推出期待已久的更便宜的车型。这越来越像是其 Model Y 的一个版本——没有多余的配置——可能售价低于 30,000 美元。特斯拉在财报电话会议上表示，便宜车型的生产应在 6 月开始。</p>
</div><p>The average transaction price for a new EV in the U.S. is about $52,200 right now, so launching a significantly lower-priced EV next year might help Tesla attract buyers with smaller budgets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前美国新电动车的平均交易价格约为 52,200 美元，因此明年推出一款显著低价的电动车可能会帮助特斯拉吸引预算较小的买家。</p>
</div><p>But despite these opportunities, I think Tesla has its work cut out for it. President Trump's tariffs are causing significant uncertainty in the automotive market right now, Tesla's brand is suffering because of Musk, and many Americans are concerned about a potential recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管有这些机会，我认为特斯拉面临的挑战依然艰巨。特朗普的关税正在给汽车市场带来重大不确定性，特斯拉的品牌因马斯克而受到影响，许多美国人对潜在的经济衰退感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>These are all significant headwinds for Tesla, and investors are going to have to wait longer to see how they all play out to know how the company weathers them. With so much uncertainty with Tesla's brand, the broader automotive market, and the economy, 2026 may be too soon to hope for a Tesla turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些都是特斯拉面临的重要逆风，投资者将不得不等待更长时间才能看到这些因素如何影响公司。考虑到特斯拉品牌、整个汽车市场和经济的不确定性，2026 年可能为时已晚，难以期待特斯拉的反弹。</p>
</div>

Is 2025 a "Throwaway Year" for Tesla?

- 特斯拉第一季度汽车销售下降 20%，净收入减少 71%。  
- 经济学家预测未来 12 个月内衰退概率上升至 45%。  
- 特斯拉需应对品牌形象受损及特朗普关税带来的不确定性。

2025 年是否是特斯拉的 “无关紧要的一年”？