<p>对于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.06%）及其股东来说，2025 年的开局相当艰难。截至目前，股价年初至今下跌约 30%。更糟糕的是，股价较其 52 周高点下跌超过 40%。经济不确定性加剧以及持续高企的利率影响了车辆的可负担性，公司的汽车业务受到冲击。第一季度汽车收入同比下降 20%。这一表现比特斯拉在 2024 年第四季度 8% 的同比下降更为糟糕。更令人担忧的是，管理层未能提供今年车辆交付的指导，选择等待在报告第二季度业绩时对公司业务有更清晰的了解。</p>
<p>尽管第一季度业绩不佳，包括每股收益同比下降 71%，但自报告以来，股价大体上处于上升趋势。实际上，当特斯拉公布业绩时，股价低于 240 美元（比此时股价低出 40 多美元）。股价从这一水平的回升可能是因为首席执行官埃隆·马斯克让投资者相信即将推出的产品能够帮助特斯拉扭转局面。毕竟，马斯克表示下个月他将给予公司更多的关注——这对那些看到他最近花费大量时间在特朗普总统的 DOGE（政府效率部）倡议上的股东来说，无疑是个好消息。</p>
<p>随着马斯克计划在接下来的几周内给予特斯拉的重振计划更多关注，现在是购买该股票的好时机吗？还是特斯拉振兴增长的努力已经被市场定价？</p>
<h2>增长举措</h2>
<p>正当马斯克下个月将更多关注放在特斯拉上时，公司将处于多个重大项目的中间，股东们希望这些项目能够为销售提供催化剂，并最终推动股价上涨。</p>
<p>首先，特斯拉在第一季度的财报电话会议上表示，预计将在 6 月在奥斯丁开始 “销售完全自主的乘车服务”。这是公司计划在多个地区推出更大规模的自主乘车共享网络的关键一步。从长远来看，公司表示客户将能够在网络中部署自己的车辆，并参与服务的收入分享。</p>
<p>此外，特斯拉计划在今年推出新的、更实惠的车型。由于高利率使新车的可负担性不如几年前，降低价格可能有助于加速销售。特斯拉在第一季度的更新中表示，计划在 2025 年上半年开始生产这些车辆的进展顺利。更重要的是，特斯拉已经制定了使这些投资资本高效的计划。</p>
<p>“这些车辆将利用下一代平台的某些方面以及我们当前平台的某些方面，并将在与我们当前车型系列相同的生产线上生产，” 特斯拉在第一季度的更新中表示。管理层解释说，这种方法将使公司能够以高效的方式增加这些车辆的生产。此外，管理层表示，这应该有助于公司在需要投资新生产线之前，将生产增长超过 2024 年的 60%。</p>
<h2>风险股票</h2>
<p>即使有这些关键的增长举措和马斯克更多的关注，仍然很难说特斯拉股票今天是个好买入。根据目前的情况，股价的市盈率约为 160 倍。如此估值，如果未来一两年内强劲的两位数利润增长未能实现，股价可能会大幅下跌。此外，特斯拉需要在未来不仅几年，而是可能十年及更长时间内以两位数的速度增长收益，以符合当前的股价估值。</p>
<p>因此，投资者在股价因业绩上涨后购买该股票时应谨慎考虑。</p>
<p>特斯拉的重振可能已经被市场定价。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票今年迄今已下跌 30%，较 52 周高点下跌超过 40%，第一季度汽车收入同比下降 20%。尽管业绩不佳，但股票已反弹，这可能与首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对公司的重新关注以及即将推出的产品有关，包括完全自动驾驶的出行服务和更实惠的车型。然而，考虑到股票的市盈率为 160 倍，投资者应保持谨慎，因为股票当前的估值可能已经反映了预期的增长，这使得投资风险较大</p>

<p>For <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 2.06%) and its shareholders, it's been a rough start to 2025. As of this writing, shares are down about 30% year to date. Even worse, the stock is down more than 40% from its 52-week high. With increasing economic uncertainty and persistently high interest rates affecting vehicle affordability, the company's automotive business is hurting. First-quarter automotive revenue fell 20% year over year. This was worse than Tesla's 8% year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adding to concerns, management refrained from providing guidance for vehicle deliveries this year, choosing to wait to see if the company has more clarity about its business when it reports its second-quarter results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.06%）及其股东来说，2025 年的开局相当艰难。截至目前，股价年初至今下跌约 30%。更糟糕的是，股价较其 52 周高点下跌超过 40%。经济不确定性加剧以及持续高企的利率影响了车辆的可负担性，公司的汽车业务受到冲击。第一季度汽车收入同比下降 20%。这一表现比特斯拉在 2024 年第四季度 8% 的同比下降更为糟糕。更令人担忧的是，管理层未能提供今年车辆交付的指导，选择等待在报告第二季度业绩时对公司业务有更清晰的了解。</p>
</div><p>But despite reporting poor first-quarter results, including a 71% year-over-year drop in earnings per share, the stock has largely been in an uptrend since the report. Indeed, shares were trading below $240 when Tesla reported results (more than $40 below where the stock is trading at the time of this writing). The stock's recovery from this level is likely because CEO Elon Musk made investors believe the company's upcoming product launches can help turn Tesla's fortunes around. After all, Musk said he'll be giving the company significantly more of his attention next month -- welcome news to shareholders who have watched him spend much of his time on President Trump's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) initiative recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管第一季度业绩不佳，包括每股收益同比下降 71%，但自报告以来，股价大体上处于上升趋势。实际上，当特斯拉公布业绩时，股价低于 240 美元（比此时股价低出 40 多美元）。股价从这一水平的回升可能是因为首席执行官埃隆·马斯克让投资者相信即将推出的产品能够帮助特斯拉扭转局面。毕竟，马斯克表示下个月他将给予公司更多的关注——这对那些看到他最近花费大量时间在特朗普总统的 DOGE（政府效率部）倡议上的股东来说，无疑是个好消息。</p>
</div><p>With Musk planning to give Tesla's turnaround plans more attention in the coming weeks, is now a good time to buy the stock? Or are Tesla's efforts to revitalize its growth already priced in?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着马斯克计划在接下来的几周内给予特斯拉的重振计划更多关注，现在是购买该股票的好时机吗？还是特斯拉振兴增长的努力已经被市场定价？</p>
</div><h2>Growth initiatives</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长举措</h2>
</div><p>Just as Musk brings Tesla more of his attention next month, the company will be in the middle of several major projects that shareholders hope will provide a catalyst for sales and -- ultimately -- the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正当马斯克下个月将更多关注放在特斯拉上时，公司将处于多个重大项目的中间，股东们希望这些项目能够为销售提供催化剂，并最终推动股价上涨。</p>
</div><p>First and foremost, Tesla said in its first-quarter earnings call that it expects to be &#34;selling fully autonomous rides in June in Austin.&#34; This is a key step in the company's plans to roll out a more substantial autonomous ride-sharing network across multiple geographies. Over the long haul, the company says customers will be able to deploy their own vehicles in the network and participate in revenue sharing from the service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，特斯拉在第一季度的财报电话会议上表示，预计将在 6 月在奥斯丁开始 “销售完全自主的乘车服务”。这是公司计划在多个地区推出更大规模的自主乘车共享网络的关键一步。从长远来看，公司表示客户将能够在网络中部署自己的车辆，并参与服务的收入分享。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Tesla plans to launch new, more affordable models this year. With high interest rates making new cars less affordable than they were several years ago, lower prices could help accelerate sales. Tesla said in its first-quarter update that its plans to begin production of these vehicles in the first half of 2025 are on track. Even more, Tesla has plans in place to make these investments capital-efficient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特斯拉计划在今年推出新的、更实惠的车型。由于高利率使新车的可负担性不如几年前，降低价格可能有助于加速销售。特斯拉在第一季度的更新中表示，计划在 2025 年上半年开始生产这些车辆的进展顺利。更重要的是，特斯拉已经制定了使这些投资资本高效的计划。</p>
</div><p>&#34;These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup,&#34; Tesla said in its first-quarter update. This approach, management explained, will enable the company to increase production of these vehicles in an efficient manner. Further, management said it should help the company grow production more than 60% over 2024 volume before the company needs to invest in new production lines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这些车辆将利用下一代平台的某些方面以及我们当前平台的某些方面，并将在与我们当前车型系列相同的生产线上生产，” 特斯拉在第一季度的更新中表示。管理层解释说，这种方法将使公司能够以高效的方式增加这些车辆的生产。此外，管理层表示，这应该有助于公司在需要投资新生产线之前，将生产增长超过 2024 年的 60%。</p>
</div><h2>A risky stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险股票</h2>
</div><p>Even with these key growth initiatives and more of Musk's attention, it's difficult to argue that Tesla stock is a good buy today. Shares trade at about 160 times earnings as of this writing. With a valuation like this, shares could trade sharply lower if strong, double-digit profit growth fails to materialize over the next year or two. Further, Tesla will need to grow earnings at double-digit rates not just for a few years, but probably for a decade and beyond, to live up to the stock's current valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使有这些关键的增长举措和马斯克更多的关注，仍然很难说特斯拉股票今天是个好买入。根据目前的情况，股价的市盈率约为 160 倍。如此估值，如果未来一两年内强劲的两位数利润增长未能实现，股价可能会大幅下跌。此外，特斯拉需要在未来不仅几年，而是可能十年及更长时间内以两位数的速度增长收益，以符合当前的股价估值。</p>
</div><p>For this reason, investors should think carefully before they buy the stock after its post-earnings move higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，投资者在股价因业绩上涨后购买该股票时应谨慎考虑。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's turnaround may already be priced in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的重振可能已经被市场定价。</p>
</div>

Tesla Has Big Plans to Reaccelerate Sales. But Is a Turnaround Already Priced In?

- 特斯拉股价 2025 年初下跌约 30%，汽车业务受经济不确定性影响。  
- 第一季度汽车收入同比下降 20%，管理层未提供今年交付指导。  
- 尽管业绩不佳，股价因新产品预期回升，投资者需谨慎考虑买入时机。

特斯拉计划重新加速销售。然而，这种转变是否已经在股价中体现出来了？