<p>美国经济在过去几年中持续增长。然而，近期对关税的担忧、与中国日益加剧的贸易战以及更广泛的不确定性对经济的影响，导致股市出现显著波动。</p>
<p>投资者一直密切关注经济报告，以寻找韧性的迹象。周三发布的一个关键指标提供了一些见解。不幸的是，消息并不是投资者所希望的。</p>
<p>在这样的背景下，所谓的 “七大巨头” 股票——这些股票在过去几年中推动了牛市——纷纷下跌。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -3.06%) 下跌了 3.6%，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -2.38%) 下跌了 2.9%，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -2.00%) 在周三下午 1:16（东部时间）下跌了 2.4%。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，今天导致亚马逊、Meta Platforms 和 Alphabet 股票下跌的公司特定消息非常少。这似乎表明投资者对意外疲弱的经济消息作出了反应。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2NzEvYS1wZXJzb24taW4tYS1kYXJrZW5lZC1yb29tLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtc3RvY2stY2hhcnRzLW9uLWEtdGFibGV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2NzEvYS1wZXJzb24taW4tYS1kYXJrZW5lZC1yb29tLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtc3RvY2stY2hhcnRzLW9uLWEtdGFibGV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一切都与经济有关</h2>
<p>美国经济分析局发布了对经济状况的初步评估，显示 2025 年第一季度的增长低于预期。报告显示，2025 年第一季度的国内生产总值（GDP）以年率 0.3% 的速度_下降_。经济学家预测 GDP 增长为 0.4%，这已经与第四季度的 2.4% 的增长形成了鲜明对比。</p>
<p>这一意外消息恰逢关键时刻，越来越多的经济学家担心经济可能在 2025 年进入衰退。全国商业经济学会编制的数据表明，40% 的经济学家预测今年发生衰退的可能性为 50%。</p>
<p>衰退的最广泛使用的定义是连续两个季度的 GDP 下降。如果经济的轨迹继续沿着当前的方向发展，我们可能已经处于所谓衰退的早期阶段。人们担心，由于关税上升引发的价格上涨可能会重新点燃通货膨胀。这反过来可能导致消费者和企业支出的减少，提供了导致经济下滑的所有因素。</p>
<p>然而，报告中包含了一线希望。第一季度 GDP 的下降是由于进口增加，因为公司试图在特朗普总统的全面关税之前做好准备。这似乎有些违反直觉，因为 GDP 衡量的是美国公司在国内的产出。然而，为了得出这个数字，政府计算了在国内销售的商品和服务的总量，然后减去进口。</p>
<p>这些计算在很大程度上依赖于库存估计，而这些估计并不完美。因此，结果可能受到计划关税前进口激增的影响。投资者将关注定于 5 月底发布的数据修正，因为该报告将包含更全面的信息，可能会使数据朝一个方向或另一个方向移动。</p>
<p>我们要等到 7 月底发布第二季度 GDP 数据时，才能确定经济是否进入了衰退区域。此外，关于衰退的_官方_判断是由国家经济研究局的经济学家做出的，该局是一个非党派的、非营利的研究机构，负责跟踪经济活动。该局的商业周期日期委员会是衰退的官方记录者，采取整体方法，考虑包括实际个人收入、工业生产、零售销售和非农就业人数在内的广泛经济指标，然后才会宣布衰退。这通常发生在衰退结束之后。</p>
<h2>煤矿中的金丝雀？</h2>
<p>那么，这与我们的三大巨头有什么关系？</p>
<ul>
<li>Alphabet、Meta Platforms 和亚马逊是全球最大的数字广告提供商。众所周知，在经济下滑的情况下，企业会削减支出，而预算中首先被削减的项目就是广告——这直接影响到我们的三家公司。</li>
<li>消费支出的减少将对亚马逊电子商务平台上的数字零售销售造成伤害。</li>
<li>经济不确定性无疑会导致企业保留宝贵的资本，这可能会减缓人工智能（AI）的采用，并削弱云支出。作为三大云基础设施提供商中的两家，亚马逊网络服务和谷歌云可能会受到影响。</li>
</ul>
<p>虽然这可能让人感到不安，但大多数经济衰退通常是短暂的。此外，股市的下跌在历史上通常是长期投资者以折扣价格购买优质公司的绝佳时机。</p>
<p>亚马逊、Meta Platforms 和 Alphabet 目前的市盈率分别为 29 倍、22 倍和 16 倍。这些倍数具有吸引力，尤其是考虑到每家公司都有长期的执行记录。</p>
<p>对于具有适当长期展望的投资者来说，购买行业领先公司的股票代表着在未来三到五年内产生显著收益的潜力，无论未来几个月发生什么。</p>

谷歌-C

亚马逊

谷歌-A

<p>美国经济因关税和潜在衰退的担忧而面临波动，导致亚马逊、Meta Platforms 和 Alphabet 等主要股票下跌。最近的 GDP 数据显示，2025 年第一季度下降了 0.3%，与预期的增长相反。这种经济不确定性可能会影响数字广告和电子商务，因为企业可能会削减开支。尽管面临下行，这些公司仍然是具有吸引力的投资，拥有有利的盈利倍数，暗示长期投资者可能会有机会</p>

<p>The U.S. economy has run consistently higher over the past couple of years. However, recent concerns about tariffs, the burgeoning trade war with China, and the impact of the broader uncertainty on the economy have fueled significant stock market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济在过去几年中持续增长。然而，近期对关税的担忧、与中国日益加剧的贸易战以及更广泛的不确定性对经济的影响，导致股市出现显著波动。</p>
</div><p>Investors have been watching economic reports closely for signs of resilience. A key indicator was released Wednesday, providing some insight. Unfortunately, the news wasn't what investors were hoping for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者一直密切关注经济报告，以寻找韧性的迹象。周三发布的一个关键指标提供了一些见解。不幸的是，消息并不是投资者所希望的。</p>
</div><p>With that as a backdrop, many of the so-called &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks --which have helped fuel the bull market over the past few years -- fell in unison. <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -3.06%) tumbled 3.6%, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -2.38%) slumped 2.9%, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -2.00%)(GOOGL -2.00%) fell 2.4% as of 1:16 p.m. ET on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这样的背景下，所谓的 “七大巨头” 股票——这些股票在过去几年中推动了牛市——纷纷下跌。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -3.06%) 下跌了 3.6%，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -2.38%) 下跌了 2.9%，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -2.00%) 在周三下午 1:16（东部时间）下跌了 2.4%。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, there was very little in the way of company-specific news driving Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet stocks lower today. This seems to suggest that investors are reacting to the surprisingly weak economic news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，今天导致亚马逊、Meta Platforms 和 Alphabet 股票下跌的公司特定消息非常少。这似乎表明投资者对意外疲弱的经济消息作出了反应。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2NzEvYS1wZXJzb24taW4tYS1kYXJrZW5lZC1yb29tLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtc3RvY2stY2hhcnRzLW9uLWEtdGFibGV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816671%2Fa-person-in-a-darkened-room-looking-at-stock-charts-on-a-tablet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It's all about the economy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一切都与经济有关</h2>
</div><p>The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial read on the state of the economy, which showed growth in the first quarter was weaker than predicted. The report showed that gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2025 <em>decreased</em> at an annual rate of 0.3%. Economists had predicted GDP growth of 0.4%, which already marked a stark contraction compared to the 2.4% expansion in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济分析局发布了对经济状况的初步评估，显示 2025 年第一季度的增长低于预期。报告显示，2025 年第一季度的国内生产总值（GDP）以年率 0.3% 的速度_下降_。经济学家预测 GDP 增长为 0.4%，这已经与第四季度的 2.4% 的增长形成了鲜明对比。</p>
</div><p>The unexpected news comes at a critical time, as a growing number of economists fear the economy could enter a recession in 2025. Data compiled by the National Association for Business Economics revealed that 40% of economists are predicting a 50% chance of a recession occurring this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一意外消息恰逢关键时刻，越来越多的经济学家担心经济可能在 2025 年进入衰退。全国商业经济学会编制的数据表明，40% 的经济学家预测今年发生衰退的可能性为 50%。</p>
</div><p>The most widely used definition of a recession is two successive quarters of declining GDP. If the trajectory of the economy continues along its current course, we could already be in the early days of said recession. There are fears that price increases fueled by rising tariffs could reignite inflation. This, in turn, could result in a pullback in consumer and business spending, providing all the ingredients to fuel a downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衰退的最广泛使用的定义是连续两个季度的 GDP 下降。如果经济的轨迹继续沿着当前的方向发展，我们可能已经处于所谓衰退的早期阶段。人们担心，由于关税上升引发的价格上涨可能会重新点燃通货膨胀。这反过来可能导致消费者和企业支出的减少，提供了导致经济下滑的所有因素。</p>
</div><p>The report contained a silver lining, however. The lower GDP in the first quarter was fueled by an increase in imports as companies tried to position themselves ahead of President Trump's blanket tariffs. That might seem counterintuitive, as GDP measures the domestic output of companies in the U.S. To arrive at that number, however, the government calculates the total amount of goods and services sold in the country, then backs out imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，报告中包含了一线希望。第一季度 GDP 的下降是由于进口增加，因为公司试图在特朗普总统的全面关税之前做好准备。这似乎有些违反直觉，因为 GDP 衡量的是美国公司在国内的产出。然而，为了得出这个数字，政府计算了在国内销售的商品和服务的总量，然后减去进口。</p>
</div><p>These calculations rely heavily on inventory estimates, which are far from perfect. Therefore, the results were likely skewed by the surge in imports ahead of the planned tariffs. Investors will want to watch for the data revision that is schedule to be released in late May, as this report will contain more comprehensive information, which could move the data one way or another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些计算在很大程度上依赖于库存估计，而这些估计并不完美。因此，结果可能受到计划关税前进口激增的影响。投资者将关注定于 5 月底发布的数据修正，因为该报告将包含更全面的信息，可能会使数据朝一个方向或另一个方向移动。</p>
</div><p>We won't know for sure if the economy has entered recession territory until the second-quarter GDP figures are released in late July. Furthermore, the <em>official</em> call regarding a recession is made by the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonpartisan, nonprofit research organization charged with tracking economic activity. The bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee, the official scorekeeper of a recession, takes a holistic approach and considers a wide range of economic indicators, including real personal income, industrial production, retail sales, and nonfarm payrolls, before declaring a recession. This typically occurs after the recession is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们要等到 7 月底发布第二季度 GDP 数据时，才能确定经济是否进入了衰退区域。此外，关于衰退的_官方_判断是由国家经济研究局的经济学家做出的，该局是一个非党派的、非营利的研究机构，负责跟踪经济活动。该局的商业周期日期委员会是衰退的官方记录者，采取整体方法，考虑包括实际个人收入、工业生产、零售销售和非农就业人数在内的广泛经济指标，然后才会宣布衰退。这通常发生在衰退结束之后。</p>
</div><h2>The canary in the coal mine?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>煤矿中的金丝雀？</h2>
</div><p>So what does this have to do with our three Magnificent Seven stalwarts?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，这与我们的三大巨头有什么关系？</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon are the world's biggest providers of digital advertising. It's well documented that in the event of a downturn, businesses dial back spending, and one of the first line items in the budget to be cut is advertising -- which directly impacts our trio.</li>
<li>A pullback in consumer spending would hurt digital retail sales on Amazon's e-commerce platform.</li>
<li>Economic uncertainty will no doubt cause enterprises to preserve precious capital, which could slow adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and dent cloud spending. As two of the Big Three cloud infrastructure providers, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud could take a hit.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Alphabet、Meta Platforms 和亚马逊是全球最大的数字广告提供商。众所周知，在经济下滑的情况下，企业会削减支出，而预算中首先被削减的项目就是广告——这直接影响到我们的三家公司。</li>
<li>消费支出的减少将对亚马逊电子商务平台上的数字零售销售造成伤害。</li>
<li>经济不确定性无疑会导致企业保留宝贵的资本，这可能会减缓人工智能（AI）的采用，并削弱云支出。作为三大云基础设施提供商中的两家，亚马逊网络服务和谷歌云可能会受到影响。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>While this can be a bit unsettling, most economic downturns are generally short-lived. Furthermore, dips in the stock market have historically been excellent times for long-term investors to pick up quality companies at discounted prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这可能让人感到不安，但大多数经济衰退通常是短暂的。此外，股市的下跌在历史上通常是长期投资者以折扣价格购买优质公司的绝佳时机。</p>
</div><p>Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet are currently selling for 29 times, 22 times, and 16 times forward earnings. These are attractive multiples, especially when you consider that each company has a long track record of execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊、Meta Platforms 和 Alphabet 目前的市盈率分别为 29 倍、22 倍和 16 倍。这些倍数具有吸引力，尤其是考虑到每家公司都有长期的执行记录。</p>
</div><p>For investors with the appropriate long-term outlook, buying shares of industry-leading companies represents the potential to generate significant gains over the coming three to five years, regardless of what happens in the months to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于具有适当长期展望的投资者来说，购买行业领先公司的股票代表着在未来三到五年内产生显著收益的潜力，无论未来几个月发生什么。</p>
</div>

Why Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet Slumped on Wednesday

- 美国经济在 2025 年第一季度增长低于预期，GDP 年率下降 0.3%。  
- 经济不确定性导致股市波动，"七大巨头"股票普遍下跌。  
- 40% 经济学家预测 2025 年有 50% 可能性进入衰退。  

为什么亚马逊、Meta Platforms 和 Alphabet 在周三股价下跌