<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.48%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克并不陌生于大胆的预测，但他可能刚刚做出了一个超越所有其他预测的声明。</p>
<p>在特斯拉最近的财报电话会议上，马斯克不仅重申了公司计划在 6 月在奥斯汀推出机器人出租车网络的计划，还表示机器人出租车将在明年中期或下半年 “显著推动财务指标”。</p>
<p>对于像特斯拉这样规模的公司来说，显著推动财务指标意味着数十亿美元的收入。毕竟，这家电动车制造商在 2024 年的收入接近 1000 亿美元。他不仅承诺机器人出租车将推动财务指标，还表示该业务将从那时起呈指数级增长。</p>
<p>然而，马斯克以做出大承诺而闻名，这些承诺往往需要数年才能兑现。他在过去十年中多次承诺完全自动驾驶的汽车即将到来，尽管特斯拉仍然不被法律允许在无人监督的情况下自行驾驶。</p>
<p>同样，马斯克最初表示，2019 年首次亮相的 Cybertruck 将在 2021 年投入生产，但直到 2023 年才实现。</p>
<p>然而，在去年 10 月的机器人出租车活动上揭晓 “Cybercab” 后，特斯拉似乎确实准备在 6 月推出机器人出租车。</p>
<p>此外，美国国家公路交通安全管理局上周放宽了对自动驾驶汽车的规定，简化了事故报告要求，旨在加速自动驾驶汽车的创新。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY0MTUvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY0MTUvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>超越优步？</h2>
<p>马斯克预测公司明年将从机器人出租车中获得数十亿美元的收入，这意味着它将很快成为共享出行的主要参与者，挑战市场领导者。<strong>Lyft</strong> 作为一家纯粹的国内共享出行服务，去年获得了 160 亿美元的总预订额。<strong>Uber Technologies</strong>(UBER -0.18%) 在 2024 年从美国获得了 214 亿美元的收入，其中约 130 亿美元来自出行，或大约 400 亿美元的总预订额。</p>
<p>特斯拉的机器人出租车模式的优势在于，它将把所有的预订收入作为收入，因为没有司机需要分成。然而，也有迹象表明，投资者可能对特斯拉能否在短期内挑战优步的共享出行持怀疑态度。</p>
<p>去年，优步的股票多次因特斯拉机器人出租车的威胁而波动，但在去年 10 月的活动后，分析师对其反应普遍不温不火，股价上涨。</p>
<p>然而，优步的股票对马斯克的机器人出租车预测几乎没有反应。如果马斯克是正确的，这将是优步可能面临困境的最明确迹象。鉴于优步股票的缺乏反应，投资者似乎对马斯克的话持谨慎态度。</p>
<h2>特斯拉股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>如果特斯拉能够实现马斯克的全球机器人出租车网络愿景，并允许特斯拉车主出租他们的车辆，那么该股票可能会朝着成为全球最有价值公司的方向发展，正如首席执行官所预测的那样。</p>
<p>然而，机器人出租车网络的成功在很大程度上似乎已经反映在股票价格中。</p>
<p>特斯拉的市盈率远高于 100，其核心汽车业务显然面临困境。特斯拉报告称，去年交付量下降，第一季度汽车收入下降 20%，因为公司在与联邦政府的品牌危机中挣扎，这被称为政府效率部（DOGE）。</p>
<p>如果特斯拉能够成功推出和扩展机器人出租车，并在明年带来数十亿美元的收入，股票可能会飙升。然而，考虑到马斯克过度承诺的声誉以及推出和扩展机器人出租车网络的挑战，这可能需要更长的时间。</p>
<p>特斯拉可能有一天会实现这一目标，但投资者现在最好降低他们的期望，尤其是考虑到核心业务中的问题。</p>

特斯拉

<p>埃隆·马斯克预测，特斯拉即将推出的机器人出租车网络到 2024 年中期可能会产生数十亿美元的收入，这可能使特斯拉成为共享出行市场的重要参与者。然而，由于马斯克过去过度承诺的历史以及特斯拉核心汽车业务目前面临的交付和收入下降的困境，投资者仍然持怀疑态度。尽管成功推出机器人出租车可能会推动特斯拉的股价，但执行中的挑战可能会延迟其显著的财务影响</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.48%) CEO Elon Musk is no stranger to bold predictions, but he may have just made one to top all others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.48%) 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克并不陌生于大胆的预测，但他可能刚刚做出了一个超越所有其他预测的声明。</p>
</div><p>On Tesla's recent earnings call, Musk not only reaffirmed the company's plan to launch a robotaxi network in Austin in June, but he also said that robotaxis would &#34;move the financial needle in a significant way&#34; by the middle of next year or the second half of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特斯拉最近的财报电话会议上，马斯克不仅重申了公司计划在 6 月在奥斯汀推出机器人出租车网络的计划，还表示机器人出租车将在明年中期或下半年 “显著推动财务指标”。</p>
</div><p>For a company the size of Tesla to move the financial needle significantly implies billions in revenue. After all, the electric vehicle (EV) maker brought in nearly $100 billion in revenue in 2024. Not only did he promise that robotaxis would move the needle, but he also said the business would grow exponentially from that point on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像特斯拉这样规模的公司来说，显著推动财务指标意味着数十亿美元的收入。毕竟，这家电动车制造商在 2024 年的收入接近 1000 亿美元。他不仅承诺机器人出租车将推动财务指标，还表示该业务将从那时起呈指数级增长。</p>
</div><p>However, Musk has been known to make big promises that end up taking years before Tesla actually fulfills them. He's made several promises over the last decade that fully self-driving cars were right around the corner, though Teslas are still not legally allowed to drive themselves unsupervised.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，马斯克以做出大承诺而闻名，这些承诺往往需要数年才能兑现。他在过去十年中多次承诺完全自动驾驶的汽车即将到来，尽管特斯拉仍然不被法律允许在无人监督的情况下自行驾驶。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, Musk initially said the Cybertruck, which was first unveiled in 2019, would go into production in 2021, though that didn't happen until 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，马斯克最初表示，2019 年首次亮相的 Cybertruck 将在 2021 年投入生产，但直到 2023 年才实现。</p>
</div><p>However, after unveiling the &#34;Cybercab&#34; at the company's robotaxi event last October, Tesla does seem to be set for the robotaxi launch in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在去年 10 月的机器人出租车活动上揭晓 “Cybercab” 后，特斯拉似乎确实准备在 6 月推出机器人出租车。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the National Highway Transportation Safety Association relaxed its rules last week in regard to autonomous vehicles, streamlining crash-reporting requirements, with a goal of speeding up autonomous-vehicle innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，美国国家公路交通安全管理局上周放宽了对自动驾驶汽车的规定，简化了事故报告要求，旨在加速自动驾驶汽车的创新。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY0MTUvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816415%2Ftesla-cybertruck-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Move over Uber?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超越优步？</h2>
</div><p>Musk's forecast that the company will be making billions from robotaxis next year implies that it will soon be a major player in ride-sharing, meaning it will challenge the market leaders. <strong>Lyft</strong>, which is essentially a pure-play domestic ride-sharing service, brought in $16 billion in gross bookings last year. <strong>Uber Technologies</strong>(UBER -0.18%) brought in $21.4 billion in revenue from the U.S. in 2024, with an estimated $13 billion from mobility, or roughly $40 billion in gross bookings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克预测公司明年将从机器人出租车中获得数十亿美元的收入，这意味着它将很快成为共享出行的主要参与者，挑战市场领导者。<strong>Lyft</strong> 作为一家纯粹的国内共享出行服务，去年获得了 160 亿美元的总预订额。<strong>Uber Technologies</strong>(UBER -0.18%) 在 2024 年从美国获得了 214 亿美元的收入，其中约 130 亿美元来自出行，或大约 400 亿美元的总预订额。</p>
</div><p>The advantage of Tesla's robotaxi model is that it will keep all of the booking money as revenue as there's no driver to split it with. However, there's also a sign that investors may be skeptical that Tesla can challenge Uber in ride-sharing, at least in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的机器人出租车模式的优势在于，它将把所有的预订收入作为收入，因为没有司机需要分成。然而，也有迹象表明，投资者可能对特斯拉能否在短期内挑战优步的共享出行持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>Last year, Uber stock moved several times in response to the threat of Tesla's robotaxis, though it jumped following the event last October as analysts were largely underwhelmed by it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，优步的股票多次因特斯拉机器人出租车的威胁而波动，但在去年 10 月的活动后，分析师对其反应普遍不温不火，股价上涨。</p>
</div><p>However, Uber stock barely moved in response to Musk's robotaxi prediction. If Musk is correct, it would be the clearest sign yet that Uber could be in trouble. Given the lack of response in Uber stock, it seems that investors are taking Musk's words with a grain of salt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，优步的股票对马斯克的机器人出租车预测几乎没有反应。如果马斯克是正确的，这将是优步可能面临困境的最明确迹象。鉴于优步股票的缺乏反应，投资者似乎对马斯克的话持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><h2>Is Tesla stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>If Tesla can fulfill Musk's vision of a global robotaxi network and allow Tesla owners to rent out their vehicles, the stock could be on its way to being the most valuable company in the world, as the CEO has predicted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果特斯拉能够实现马斯克的全球机器人出租车网络愿景，并允许特斯拉车主出租他们的车辆，那么该股票可能会朝着成为全球最有价值公司的方向发展，正如首席执行官所预测的那样。</p>
</div><p>However, much of the success of the robotaxi network already seems to be priced into the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，机器人出租车网络的成功在很大程度上似乎已经反映在股票价格中。</p>
</div><p>Tesla trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio well above 100, and its core auto business is clearly struggling. Tesla reported a decline in deliveries last year, and automotive revenue fell 20% in the first quarter as the company struggles with a brand crisis stemming from Musk with the federal government as part of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的市盈率远高于 100，其核心汽车业务显然面临困境。特斯拉报告称，去年交付量下降，第一季度汽车收入下降 20%，因为公司在与联邦政府的品牌危机中挣扎，这被称为政府效率部（DOGE）。</p>
</div><p>If Tesla can pull off a successful robotaxi launch and expansion, and bring in billions in revenue by next year, the stock is likely to surge. However, given Musk's reputation for overpromising and the challenges in rolling out and scaling the robotaxi network, it's likely to take longer than that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果特斯拉能够成功推出和扩展机器人出租车，并在明年带来数十亿美元的收入，股票可能会飙升。然而，考虑到马斯克过度承诺的声誉以及推出和扩展机器人出租车网络的挑战，这可能需要更长的时间。</p>
</div><p>Tesla could get there someday, but investors are better off tempering their expectations for now, especially given the problems in the core business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉可能有一天会实现这一目标，但投资者现在最好降低他们的期望，尤其是考虑到核心业务中的问题。</p>
</div>

Elon Musk Says Robotaxis Will Bring in Billions Next Year. Is Tesla a Buy?

- 特斯拉 CEO 埃隆·马斯克在财报电话会议上重申将于 6 月推出机器人出租车网络。  
- 马斯克预测机器人出租车将在明年中期显著提升公司收入，可能达到数十亿美元。  
- 尽管特斯拉面临核心业务挑战，成功推出机器人出租车可能会推动股价上涨。  

埃隆·马斯克称机器人出租车将在明年带来数十亿美元的收入。特斯拉是否值得购买？