<p>2022 年 11 月 30 日，ChatGPT 的推出代表了引发人工智能（AI）革命的主要催化剂之一。自那时以来，半导体股票 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的股价飙升了惊人的 550%，使该公司转变为一家万亿美元企业。虽然半导体芯片仍应是 AI 发展的重要组成部分，但投资者希望识别超越 Nvidia 的新增长机会。</p>
<p><strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 3.68%）是另一家在未来十年内有望主导 AI 芯片领域的公司。其增长前景和估值趋势支持了台积电为何是我目前在芯片领域的首选。</p>
<h2>台积电是推动芯片繁荣的引擎</h2>
<p>你可能对 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>超微半导体</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong> 等名字并不陌生，这些公司在构建 AI 应用所需的先进芯片和数据中心基础设施方面发挥着重要作用。然而，你可能不太熟悉的是台积电在背后的角色。</p>
<p>Nvidia、AMD、博通、OpenAI、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>高通</strong> 等许多公司依赖台积电的制造工艺来帮助生产他们的芯片和集成系统产品。换句话说，台积电将 AI 最大参与者的工程实力转化为现实。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY1MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY1MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>台积电的增长才刚刚开始</h2>
<p>在 2024 年，台积电的销售额为 883 亿美元，每股收益为 6.81 美元。根据以下共识预期，华尔街预计该公司的营收将在未来几年继续快速增长，同时保持健康的盈利能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>根据 Precedence Research，半导体市场中的 AI 预计到 2034 年将达到 2330 亿美元的市场规模。考虑到台积电已经占据了超过 60% 的代工市场，加上其长期以来的行业领先芯片设计师客户名单以及定制硅芯片的兴起，台积电处于一个良好的位置，有望实现甚至超越上述财务预期。</p>
<h2>以合理的价格实现巨大的增长</h2>
<p>截至目前，台积电的市盈率（P/E）为 21。这与其 10 年的平均倍数相符。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>但台积电的估值在过去几个月显著压缩，主要原因是美国新关税和贸易政策的不确定性持续存在。</p>
<p>虽然很难预测何时会缓解持续的贸易谈判，但我倾向于认为，增长型股票目前被低估。从宏观角度来看，关税随时可能改变，而当前的政策不会永远持续。投资者高估了关税对台积电短期业务的影响，同时低估了该公司长期机会的光明前景。</p>
<p>与投资 Nvidia 不同，购买台积电股票在某种程度上更像是对整体芯片需求和 AI 基础设施支出的长期押注。换句话说，无论哪家公司的芯片或数据中心设备需求最旺盛，台积电都将受益。</p>
<p>这使得该公司处于一个新兴的、世代性的巨型趋势中。台积电的增长前景是过去十年来最好的，但该公司的估值与其 10 年的平均水平没有变化，甚至相较于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数还存在折扣。</p>
<p>综合来看，你会发现台积电是未来十年最值得拥有的芯片股票的明确理由。</p>

英伟达财报，一站看懂！

台积电

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）预计将在未来十年成为表现最佳的半导体股票，超越英伟达（Nvidia）。TSMC 在人工智能芯片生产中扮演着关键角色，支持着英伟达和 AMD 等主要公司。到 2034 年，半导体领域的人工智能市场规模预计将达到 2330 亿美元，TSMC 在代工市场中占据超过 60% 的份额。尽管由于贸易政策的不确定性导致近期估值压缩，TSMC 的增长前景依然强劲，使其成为芯片行业中一个引人注目的长期投资</p>

<p>The launch of ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022 represented one of the leading catalysts that sparked the revolution around artificial intelligence (AI). Since that date, shares of semiconductor stock <strong>Nvidia</strong> have soared an astronomical 550%, transforming the company to a multitrillion-dollar enterprise in the process. While semiconductor chips should remain an integral component of AI development, investors want to identify new growth opportunities beyond Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2022 年 11 月 30 日，ChatGPT 的推出代表了引发人工智能（AI）革命的主要催化剂之一。自那时以来，半导体股票 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的股价飙升了惊人的 550%，使该公司转变为一家万亿美元企业。虽然半导体芯片仍应是 AI 发展的重要组成部分，但投资者希望识别超越 Nvidia 的新增长机会。</p>
</div><p><strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 3.68%) is another company that looks well-positioned to dominate the AI chip arena over the next decade. Its growth prospects and valuation trends support the case for why Taiwan Semi is my top choice in the chip space right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 3.68%）是另一家在未来十年内有望主导 AI 芯片领域的公司。其增长前景和估值趋势支持了台积电为何是我目前在芯片领域的首选。</p>
</div><h2>Taiwan Semi is the engine powering the chip boom</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电是推动芯片繁荣的引擎</h2>
</div><p>Chances are you're familiar with names like Nvidia, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, and <strong>Broadcom</strong> when it comes to advanced chipsets and data center infrastructure used for building AI applications. What you may not be so familiar with, however, is the role Taiwan Semi plays in the background.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能对 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>超微半导体</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong> 等名字并不陌生，这些公司在构建 AI 应用所需的先进芯片和数据中心基础设施方面发挥着重要作用。然而，你可能不太熟悉的是台积电在背后的角色。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, OpenAI, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Qualcomm</strong>, and many others rely on the fabrication processes of TSMC to help manufacture their chips and integrated systems products. In other words, Taiwan Semi brings the engineering prowess from AI's biggest players to life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia、AMD、博通、OpenAI、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>高通</strong> 等许多公司依赖台积电的制造工艺来帮助生产他们的芯片和集成系统产品。换句话说，台积电将 AI 最大参与者的工程实力转化为现实。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY1MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ2ODI2NjE1MS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816526%2Fgettyimages-1468266151.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's growth is just getting started</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电的增长才刚刚开始</h2>
</div><p>In 2024, TSMC generated $88.3 billion in sales and $6.81 in earnings per share. Per the consensus estimates below, Wall Street is expecting the company's top line to continue growing rapidly over the next couple of years while maintaining healthy profitability too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年，台积电的销售额为 883 亿美元，每股收益为 6.81 美元。根据以下共识预期，华尔街预计该公司的营收将在未来几年继续快速增长，同时保持健康的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c8a0fd17e01289c3bb4c63d432c2f232.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>AI in the semiconductor market is expected reach a market size of $233 billion by 2034, according to Precedence Research. Considering that TSMC already holds over 60% of the foundry market, combined with its long roster of industry-leading chip designers as customers and the rise of custom silicon chipsets, Taiwan Semi is in a great position to achieve or even surpass the financial estimates illustrated above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Precedence Research，半导体市场中的 AI 预计到 2034 年将达到 2330 亿美元的市场规模。考虑到台积电已经占据了超过 60% 的代工市场，加上其长期以来的行业领先芯片设计师客户名单以及定制硅芯片的兴起，台积电处于一个良好的位置，有望实现甚至超越上述财务预期。</p>
</div><h2>Monster growth at a bargain price point</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以合理的价格实现巨大的增长</h2>
</div><p>As of this writing, Taiwan Semi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 21. This is in line with its 10-year average multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，台积电的市盈率（P/E）为 21。这与其 10 年的平均倍数相符。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8c1e29000aea9d6e85b80649380f7e55.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>But TSMC's valuation has compressed significantly over the last few months with the primary cause being the ongoing uncertainty around new tariff and trade policies from the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但台积电的估值在过去几个月显著压缩，主要原因是美国新关税和贸易政策的不确定性持续存在。</p>
</div><p>Although it's hard to predict when there will be any relief from ongoing trade negotiations, I tend to be in the camp that believes growth stocks are oversold right now. From a macro point of view, tariffs can change at any point, and the current policies aren't going to last forever. Investors are overstating the impact tariffs might have on TSMC's business in the short term while underestimating how bright the company's long-term opportunity is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然很难预测何时会缓解持续的贸易谈判，但我倾向于认为，增长型股票目前被低估。从宏观角度来看，关税随时可能改变，而当前的政策不会永远持续。投资者高估了关税对台积电短期业务的影响，同时低估了该公司长期机会的光明前景。</p>
</div><p>Unlike an investment in Nvidia, buying TSMC stock more or less serves as a long-run bet on overall chip demand and AI infrastructure spending. In other words, regardless of which company's chips or data center equipment are experiencing the most demand -- TSMC stands to benefit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与投资 Nvidia 不同，购买台积电股票在某种程度上更像是对整体芯片需求和 AI 基础设施支出的长期押注。换句话说，无论哪家公司的芯片或数据中心设备需求最旺盛，台积电都将受益。</p>
</div><p>That puts the company in the middle of a budding, generational megatrend. Taiwan Semi's growth prospects are the best they've been in at least the last decade, and yet, the company's valuation is unchanged from its 10-year average and even represents a discount to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得该公司处于一个新兴的、世代性的巨型趋势中。台积电的增长前景是过去十年来最好的，但该公司的估值与其 10 年的平均水平没有变化，甚至相较于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数还存在折扣。</p>
</div><p>Put it all together, and you have a clear case for why Taiwan Semi is the top chip stock to own for the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，你会发现台积电是未来十年最值得拥有的芯片股票的明确理由。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be the Top-Performing Semiconductor Stock Over the Next 10 Years (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- 台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）在 AI 芯片市场中占据重要地位。  
- 预计到 2034 年，半导体市场规模将达 2330 亿美元。  
- TSMC 当前市盈率为 21，估值相对合理，长期增长潜力巨大。  

预测：这只股票将成为未来十年表现最佳的半导体股票（提示：不是英伟达）