<p><strong>UPS</strong>（UPS 1.80%）股票的 6.8% 股息收益率和 <strong>惠而浦</strong>（WHR 2.87%）股票的 9.1% 股息收益率显然对寻求被动收入的投资者具有吸引力。然而，世上没有免费的午餐，它们的收益率反映了市场对其股息可持续性的一些怀疑。也就是说，哪只股票更好，在购买股票之前你需要了解哪些风险？</p>
<h2>惠而浦股票分析（9.1% 股息收益率）</h2>
<p>惠而浦和 UPS 的股票今年都大幅下跌，因为它们都遭遇了交易环境的恶化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png"/></p>
<p>WHR 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>对于惠而浦来说，问题在于顽固的高利率和竞争对手在唐纳德·特朗普总统连任背景下的行为。相对较高的利率抑制了房地产市场，从而影响了对家用电器的可自由支配需求（这通常比替换需求的利润率更高）。因此，惠而浦第一季度的有机销售同比仅增长 2.2%，其主要的北美家电业务的有机销售持平。</p>
<p>惠而浦的销售在 2024 年第四季度和 2025 年第一季度也很可能受到竞争对手行为的影响。首席执行官 Marc Bitzer 在最近的财报电话会议上表示：“亚洲家电生产商在第一季度和第四季度显著增加了对美国的进口，基本上给美国行业带来了压力。这种市场干扰可能会持续到第二季度，因为竞争对手试图清理他们的库存。”</p>
<p>由于第一季度和第二季度受到此类行为的负面影响，30 年期抵押贷款利率仍高于 6.5%，以及关于关税的经济不确定性，这对管理层维持全年指导的决定产生了一些怀疑。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvaG9tZS1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UtcmgtYXBwbGlhbmNlcy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvaG9tZS1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UtcmgtYXBwbGlhbmNlcy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>惠而浦的全年指导暗示其股息是可持续的。例如，指导预计销售额为 158 亿美元，息税前利润（EBIT）率为 6.8%，这意味着持续的 EBIT 为 10.7 亿美元，自由现金流（FCF）将降至 5 亿到 6 亿美元。这足以覆盖惠而浦去年支付的 3.84 亿美元股息。</p>
<p>也就是说，如果惠而浦今年表现不佳，股息面临重大风险。该公司有 48 亿美元的长期债务和 18.5 亿美元的债务将在今年到期，其中计划偿还 7 亿美元并再融资 11 亿到 12 亿美元。任何自由现金流前景的显著恶化可能会导致管理层削减股息以巩固其资产负债表，尤其是在偿还债务方面。</p>
<h2>UPS 股票分析（6.8% 股息收益率）</h2>
<p>继续关注股息可持续性的问题，UPS 管理层对这一问题有三点明确看法：</p>
<ul>
<li>其长期目标是将 50% 的收益用于股息支付，并致力于维持和增加股息</li>
<li>当前每股 6.56 美元的股息几乎无法覆盖华尔街分析师对 UPS 2025 年收益 7.11 美元的共识，意味着 92% 的派息比率</li>
<li>管理层预计 2025 年自由现金流为 57 亿美元，几乎覆盖 55 亿美元的现金股息</li>
</ul>
<p>无论你是从收益（如管理层所做）还是自由现金流来看，UPS 支付股息的能力开始显得紧张。同时，UPS 管理层正在努力应对到 2026 年下半年 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的配送量减少 50% 的挑战，同时还要应对需求环境的恶化。这可能会影响 UPS 在短期内产生收益和现金流的能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI0OTk1NTU1Ni0xMjAxeDc3NC0xZTk3NTA4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI0OTk1NTU1Ni0xMjAxeDc3NC0xZTk3NTA4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在其主要的美国国内市场，首席执行官 Carol Tome 在财报电话会议上表示，2 月和 3 月的平均日交易量（ADV）下降 “超出我们的预期”。此外，UPS 对第二季度的指导预计美国国内的年同比 ADV 下降 9%。管理层拒绝更新其全年指导。</p>
<h2>UPS 还是惠而浦？</h2>
<p>总体来看，UPS 的股息看起来比惠而浦的更具可持续性，因此在这场较量中胜出。UPS 有 195 亿美元的长期债务，相比之下，2025 年预计的 57 亿美元自由现金流看起来是可控的。惠而浦的 48 亿美元长期债务远高于其预计的 2025 年自由现金流的 5 亿到 6 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，两者都有可能在年底之前削减股息。这并不意味着它们是没有吸引力的股票；这只是意味着任何仅仅为了股息而购买的人需要为潜在的失望做好准备。</p>

惠而浦

联合包裹

<p>UPS 的股息收益率为 6.8%，而惠而浦的收益率更高，达到 9.1%。这两家公司都面临影响其股息可持续性的挑战。惠而浦的销售增长受到高利率和竞争压力的制约，这引发了人们对其在巨额债务下维持股息能力的担忧。相反，UPS 计划将 50% 的收益用于分红，但其派息比率接近 92%，而递送量的下降影响了收益。总体而言，UPS 的股息似乎比惠而浦的更具可持续性，但两者都可能在未来面临削减的风险</p>

<p>The 6.8% dividend yield of <strong>UPS</strong>(UPS 1.80%) stock and the 9.1% dividend yield of <strong>Whirlpool</strong>(WHR 2.87%) stock are obviously attractive for passive income-seeking investors. However, there's no such thing as a free lunch, and their yields reflect some doubt in the marketplace around the sustainability of their dividends. That said, which stock is better, and what risks do you need to know about before buying the stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>UPS</strong>（UPS 1.80%）股票的 6.8% 股息收益率和 <strong>惠而浦</strong>（WHR 2.87%）股票的 9.1% 股息收益率显然对寻求被动收入的投资者具有吸引力。然而，世上没有免费的午餐，它们的收益率反映了市场对其股息可持续性的一些怀疑。也就是说，哪只股票更好，在购买股票之前你需要了解哪些风险？</p>
</div><h2>Whirlpool stock analysis (9.1% dividend yield)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>惠而浦股票分析（9.1% 股息收益率）</h2>
</div><p>Both Whirlpool's and UPS' shares are down heavily this year, as they've both suffered a deterioration in their trading conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦和 UPS 的股票今年都大幅下跌，因为它们都遭遇了交易环境的恶化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a41bb9acb52948fa86fa9092f59b843f.png"/></p>
<p>WHR data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WHR 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>For Whirlpool, it comes down to a combination of stubbornly high interest rates and competitor behavior in light of President Donald Trump's reelection. Relatively high interest rates curtail the housing market and, in turn, discretionary demand (which tends to be higher-margin than replacement demand) for housing appliances. Consequently, Whirlpool's first-quarter organic sales rose just 2.2% year over year, with organic sales flat in its key major domestic appliance North America business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于惠而浦来说，问题在于顽固的高利率和竞争对手在唐纳德·特朗普总统连任背景下的行为。相对较高的利率抑制了房地产市场，从而影响了对家用电器的可自由支配需求（这通常比替换需求的利润率更高）。因此，惠而浦第一季度的有机销售同比仅增长 2.2%，其主要的北美家电业务的有机销售持平。</p>
</div><p>Whirlpool's sales were also highly likely affected by competitor behavior in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. CEO Marc Bitzer said on the recent earnings call: &#34;Asian appliance producers significantly increased imports into the U.S. ahead of the tariffs in the first quarter and fourth quarter, essentially loading the U.S. industry. This market disruption will likely continue into Q2 as competitors attempt to sell through their inventory.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦的销售在 2024 年第四季度和 2025 年第一季度也很可能受到竞争对手行为的影响。首席执行官 Marc Bitzer 在最近的财报电话会议上表示：“亚洲家电生产商在第一季度和第四季度显著增加了对美国的进口，基本上给美国行业带来了压力。这种市场干扰可能会持续到第二季度，因为竞争对手试图清理他们的库存。”</p>
</div><p>With the first and second quarters negatively affected by such actions, 30-year mortgage rates still above 6.5%, and general uncertainty in the economy concerning tariffs, this casts some doubt on management's decision to maintain its full-year guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于第一季度和第二季度受到此类行为的负面影响，30 年期抵押贷款利率仍高于 6.5%，以及关于关税的经济不确定性，这对管理层维持全年指导的决定产生了一些怀疑。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvaG9tZS1nb29kcy13YXJlaG91c2UtcmgtYXBwbGlhbmNlcy0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816622%2Fhome-goods-warehouse-rh-appliances-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Whirlpool's full-year guidance implies that its dividend is sustainable. For example, the guidance calls for sales of $15.8 billion with an ongoing earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin of 6.8%, implying an ongoing EBIT of $1.07 billion, dropping down to $500 million to $600 million in free cash flow (FCF). That's more than enough to cover the the $384 million in dividends that Whirlpool paid last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠而浦的全年指导暗示其股息是可持续的。例如，指导预计销售额为 158 亿美元，息税前利润（EBIT）率为 6.8%，这意味着持续的 EBIT 为 10.7 亿美元，自由现金流（FCF）将降至 5 亿到 6 亿美元。这足以覆盖惠而浦去年支付的 3.84 亿美元股息。</p>
</div><p>That said, there's a significant risk to the dividend if Whirlpool falters this year. The company has $4.8 billion in long-term debt and $1.85 billion in debt maturing this year, of which it plans to pay down $700 million and refinance $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. Any significant deterioration in the FCF outlook may cause management to cut the dividend to shore up its balance sheet, not least in paying down debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，如果惠而浦今年表现不佳，股息面临重大风险。该公司有 48 亿美元的长期债务和 18.5 亿美元的债务将在今年到期，其中计划偿还 7 亿美元并再融资 11 亿到 12 亿美元。任何自由现金流前景的显著恶化可能会导致管理层削减股息以巩固其资产负债表，尤其是在偿还债务方面。</p>
</div><h2>UPS stock analysis (6.8% dividend yield)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UPS 股票分析（6.8% 股息收益率）</h2>
</div><p>Continuing the theme of looking at dividend sustainability, UPS management is clear on three things regarding the matter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>继续关注股息可持续性的问题，UPS 管理层对这一问题有三点明确看法：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Its longstanding aim is to pay out 50% of its earnings in dividends, and it's committed to sustaining and growing the dividend</li>
<li>The current dividend of $6.56 per share is barely covered by the Wall Street analyst consensus for UPS earnings in 2025 of $7.11, implying a payout ratio of 92%</li>
<li>Management expects $5.7 billion in FCF in 2025, barely covering the $5.5 billion cash dividend</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>其长期目标是将 50% 的收益用于股息支付，并致力于维持和增加股息</li>
<li>当前每股 6.56 美元的股息几乎无法覆盖华尔街分析师对 UPS 2025 年收益 7.11 美元的共识，意味着 92% 的派息比率</li>
<li>管理层预计 2025 年自由现金流为 57 亿美元，几乎覆盖 55 亿美元的现金股息</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Whether you look at the payout ratio in terms of earnings (as management does) or FCF, UPS' ability to pay its dividend is beginning to look stretched. At the same time, UPS management is trying to finesse a 50% reduction in <strong>Amazon.com</strong> delivery volume by the second half of 2026, while dealing with a deteriorating demand environment. This could cloud UPS' ability to generate earnings and cash flow over the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论你是从收益（如管理层所做）还是自由现金流来看，UPS 支付股息的能力开始显得紧张。同时，UPS 管理层正在努力应对到 2026 年下半年 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 的配送量减少 50% 的挑战，同时还要应对需求环境的恶化。这可能会影响 UPS 在短期内产生收益和现金流的能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTI0OTk1NTU1Ni0xMjAxeDc3NC0xZTk3NTA4LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816622%2Fgettyimages-1249955556-1201x774-1e97508.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>In its key U.S. domestic market, the decline in its average daily volume (ADV) in February and March was &#34;higher than we expected,&#34; according to CEO Carol Tome on the earnings call. Moreover, UPS guidance for the second quarter calls for a U.S. domestic year-over-year ADV decline of 9%. Management declined to update its full-year guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其主要的美国国内市场，首席执行官 Carol Tome 在财报电话会议上表示，2 月和 3 月的平均日交易量（ADV）下降 “超出我们的预期”。此外，UPS 对第二季度的指导预计美国国内的年同比 ADV 下降 9%。管理层拒绝更新其全年指导。</p>
</div><h2>UPS or Whirlpool?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UPS 还是惠而浦？</h2>
</div><p>On balance, UPS' dividend looks more sustainable than Whirlpool's, so it wins the contest. UPS has $19.5 billion in long-term debt, which looks manageable compared to guidance for $5.7 billion in FCF in 2025. Whirlpool's $4.8 billion in long-term debt is far higher than its estimated FCF of $500 million to $600 million in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体来看，UPS 的股息看起来比惠而浦的更具可持续性，因此在这场较量中胜出。UPS 有 195 亿美元的长期债务，相比之下，2025 年预计的 57 亿美元自由现金流看起来是可控的。惠而浦的 48 亿美元长期债务远高于其预计的 2025 年自由现金流的 5 亿到 6 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>However, there's a good chance both could cut their dividends by the end of the year. That doesn't mean they are unattractive stocks; it just means anyone buying in for the dividend alone needs to prepare for potential disappointment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，两者都有可能在年底之前削减股息。这并不意味着它们是没有吸引力的股票；这只是意味着任何仅仅为了股息而购买的人需要为潜在的失望做好准备。</p>
</div>

更优的股息股票：惠而浦与联合包裹对比