<p>上周对于投资者来说相当震惊，他们认为邮轮公司股票基本上都是同舟共济。市场市值领头羊 <strong>皇家加勒比邮轮</strong>（RCL 0.12%）在周二发布了令人鼓舞的季度报告。较小的竞争对手 <strong>挪威邮轮</strong>（NCLH 1.09%）在一天后发布最新财务结果时则走了另一条路。</p>
<p>皇家加勒比在今年前三个月的增长超出了预期，尤其是在底线方面。NCL 则出现了同比下降，尤其是在底线方面。这里有很多内容需要分析，但邮轮度假的乐趣在于你只需在开始探索各个停靠港时打包一次。带上冒险的心态——也许还需要一些晕船药——我们将迎接波涛汹涌的海洋。</p>
<h2>有些水域比其他水域更波涛汹涌</h2>
<p>皇家加勒比在行业季节性淡季的第一季度收入增长了 7%。这是自 2021 年底在 COVID-19 强制停业后恢复运营以来最弱的营收增长，但这一表现符合预期。真正让皇家加勒比起飞的是底线。调整后的每股收益飙升 57%，达到 2.71 美元，远超华尔街专业人士预测的 2.53 美元。</p>
<p>挪威邮轮的情况则截然不同。NCL 的收入下降了 3%，部分原因是其一些大型船只正在进行维护工作，导致它们暂时停航。调整后的每股收益暴跌 56%。外汇损失侵蚀了盈利能力，但即使没有这一打击，仍然会比去年下降。</p>
<p>比较并不止于此。皇家加勒比的净收益——一个流行的行业指标，计算每可用乘客邮轮日的调整后毛利率——在本季度为 4.7%。这几乎是 NCL 同期净收益 1.2% 的四倍。载客率也有利于市值领头羊，109% 对 101.5%。</p>
<p>最终结果是，皇家加勒比在业绩方面继续保持领先。过去四个季度，其净利润率达到 19.4%，是 NCL 的 9.1% 的两倍多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3MjE3MDg5My5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3MjE3MDg5My5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>赚取市场溢价和上涨</h2>
<p>你会期望市场为皇家加勒比的持续优越基本面支付溢价。在这一点上，市场没有让人失望。NCL 的交易倍数无论是从历史角度还是前瞻性角度来看都明显较低。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>历史市盈率</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 年市盈率</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026 年市盈率</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>来源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
<p>皇家加勒比在所有三个时间段的市盈率几乎是 NCL 的两倍。即使回到收入方面，皇家加勒比的企业价值是其历史收入的 4.9 倍。这是 NCL 的 2.4 倍的两倍多。考虑到前者历史上优越的增长率和利润率，这一溢价是完全合理的。如果历史有任何指示，皇家加勒比实际上将继续比 NCL 增长得更快——这也适用于其股票图表的收益。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年初至今收益</td>
<td>持平</td>
<td>下跌 32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>一年回报</td>
<td>上涨 67%</td>
<td>上涨 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三年回报</td>
<td>上涨 196%</td>
<td>下跌 13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年回报</td>
<td>上涨 464%</td>
<td>上涨 26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>来源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
<p>这种差异是显著的，随着航行时间的延长，财富的改变更加明显。很难相信皇家加勒比在过去三年中几乎增长了三倍，而竞争对手 NCL 的交易价格实际上下降了 13%。如果看五年，皇家加勒比是一个五倍收益者。NCL 的年化回报为 5%。</p>
<p>如果投资者能从中得到一个启示，那就是为同一行业的优质运营商支付溢价是值得的。可以说挪威邮轮在这里代表了一个引人注目的价值，但我并不认同。我持有 NCL 的股份，但在皇家加勒比的持仓更大。如果历史是任何一种老师，这一差距应该会扩大。一旦你超越当前的关税和经济担忧，邮轮行业的长期前景是乐观的。只要在登船前不要假设每个邮轮公司的股票都有相同的适航性。</p>

挪威邮轮

皇家加勒比邮轮

<p>皇家加勒比邮轮和挪威邮轮在季度业绩上表现截然不同，皇家加勒比的收入增长了 7%，调整后收益上升了 57%，而挪威则经历了 3% 的收入下降和 56% 的收益下滑。皇家加勒比的净收益和入住率也优于挪威邮轮。市场对皇家加勒比的估值几乎是挪威邮轮的两倍，反映出其更强的基本面。在过去五年中，皇家加勒比的股票上涨了 464%，而挪威邮轮仅上涨了 26%。建议投资者在投资邮轮公司股票之前考虑业绩差异</p>

<p>Last week was pretty jarring for investors figuring that cruise line stocks were essentially all in the same boat. Market cap leader <strong>Royal Caribbean</strong>(RCL 0.12%) put out an encouraging quarterly report on Tuesday. Smaller rival <strong>Norwegian Cruise Line</strong>(NCLH 1.09%) went the other way when it served up its latest financial results a day later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周对于投资者来说相当震惊，他们认为邮轮公司股票基本上都是同舟共济。市场市值领头羊 <strong>皇家加勒比邮轮</strong>（RCL 0.12%）在周二发布了令人鼓舞的季度报告。较小的竞争对手 <strong>挪威邮轮</strong>（NCLH 1.09%）在一天后发布最新财务结果时则走了另一条路。</p>
</div><p>Royal Caribbean posted better-than-expected growth through the first three months of this year, particularly on the bottom line. NCL saw year-over-year declines, particularly on the bottom line. There's a lot to unpack here, but the joy of a cruise getaway is that you only have to unpack once when you start a exploring the various ports of call. Bring a sense of adventure -- and perhaps some Dramamine -- as we head into the high and low seas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家加勒比在今年前三个月的增长超出了预期，尤其是在底线方面。NCL 则出现了同比下降，尤其是在底线方面。这里有很多内容需要分析，但邮轮度假的乐趣在于你只需在开始探索各个停靠港时打包一次。带上冒险的心态——也许还需要一些晕船药——我们将迎接波涛汹涌的海洋。</p>
</div><h2>Some waters are choppier than others</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有些水域比其他水域更波涛汹涌</h2>
</div><p>Royal Caribbean saw its revenue rise 7% during the seasonally sleepy first quarter for the industry. This is its weakest top-line growth since resuming operations in late 2021 after the COVID-19-mandated shutdown, but the showing was in line with expectations. It was on the bottom line that Royal Caribbean really got going. Adjusted earnings soared 57% to $2.71 a share, well ahead of the $2.53 a share that Wall Street pros were modeling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家加勒比在行业季节性淡季的第一季度收入增长了 7%。这是自 2021 年底在 COVID-19 强制停业后恢复运营以来最弱的营收增长，但这一表现符合预期。真正让皇家加勒比起飞的是底线。调整后的每股收益飙升 57%，达到 2.71 美元，远超华尔街专业人士预测的 2.53 美元。</p>
</div><p>It was a different story for Norwegian Cruise Line. Revenue declined 3% at NCL, partly as a result of some maintenance work being done on some of its larger ships that put them briefly out of commission. Adjusted earnings plummeted 56%. Foreign exchange losses ate into profitability, but even without that hit, it would've still been a decline from a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威邮轮的情况则截然不同。NCL 的收入下降了 3%，部分原因是其一些大型船只正在进行维护工作，导致它们暂时停航。调整后的每股收益暴跌 56%。外汇损失侵蚀了盈利能力，但即使没有这一打击，仍然会比去年下降。</p>
</div><p>The comparisons don't end there. Royal Caribbean's net yield -- a popular industry metric that calculates adjusted gross margin per available passenger cruise day -- was 4.7% during the quarter. This is almost quadruple NCL's net yield of 1.2% for the period. Load factor or occupancy rate also favors the market cap leader, 109% vs. 101.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比较并不止于此。皇家加勒比的净收益——一个流行的行业指标，计算每可用乘客邮轮日的调整后毛利率——在本季度为 4.7%。这几乎是 NCL 同期净收益 1.2% 的四倍。载客率也有利于市值领头羊，109% 对 101.5%。</p>
</div><p>The end result is that Royal Caribbean continues to be leader in terms of performance. Its net margin over the past four quarters stands at a robust 19.4%, more than double NCL at 9.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终结果是，皇家加勒比在业绩方面继续保持领先。过去四个季度，其净利润率达到 19.4%，是 NCL 的 9.1% 的两倍多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxODIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3MjE3MDg5My5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817182%2Fgettyimages-1472170893.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Earning its market premium and upticks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>赚取市场溢价和上涨</h2>
</div><p>You would expect the market to pay a premium for Royal Caribbean's perpetually superior fundamentals. The market doesn't disappoint on that front. NCL definitely trades at much lower multiples on a trailing basis as well as a forward-looking basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你会期望市场为皇家加勒比的持续优越基本面支付溢价。在这一点上，市场没有让人失望。NCL 的交易倍数无论是从历史角度还是前瞻性角度来看都明显较低。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Royal Caribbean</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Trailing P/E multiple</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 P/E</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026 P/E</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>历史市盈率</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 年市盈率</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026 年市盈率</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
</div><p>Royal Caribbean is trading at nearly double the earnings multiple of NCL in all three timelines. Even if you circle back to the top line, Royal Caribbean trades at an enterprise value that is 4.9 times its trailing revenue. This is more than double NCL with a 2.4 multiple. Given the former's historically superior growth rates and margins, it's a premium that is more than warranted. If history is any indicator, Royal Caribbean will actually continue to grow faster than NCL -- and that also goes for its stock chart gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>皇家加勒比在所有三个时间段的市盈率几乎是 NCL 的两倍。即使回到收入方面，皇家加勒比的企业价值是其历史收入的 4.9 倍。这是 NCL 的 2.4 倍的两倍多。考虑到前者历史上优越的增长率和利润率，这一溢价是完全合理的。如果历史有任何指示，皇家加勒比实际上将继续比 NCL 增长得更快——这也适用于其股票图表的收益。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Royal Caribbean</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year-to-date gains</td>
<td>Flat</td>
<td>Down 32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>One-year returns</td>
<td>Up 67%</td>
<td>Up 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Three-year returns</td>
<td>Up 196%</td>
<td>Down 13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Five-year returns</td>
<td>Up 464%</td>
<td>Up 26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>皇家加勒比</th>
<th>NCL</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>年初至今收益</td>
<td>持平</td>
<td>下跌 32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>一年回报</td>
<td>上涨 67%</td>
<td>上涨 8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>三年回报</td>
<td>上涨 196%</td>
<td>下跌 13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>五年回报</td>
<td>上涨 464%</td>
<td>上涨 26%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Yahoo! Finance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Yahoo! Finance。</p>
</div><p>The disparity is dramatic, and it becomes more wealth-altering the further out you sail. It's hard to believe that Royal Caribbean has nearly tripled over the past three years while rival NCL is actually trading 13% lower. Go out to five years and Royal Caribbean is a five-bagger. NCL has generated an annualized return of 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种差异是显著的，随着航行时间的延长，财富的改变更加明显。很难相信皇家加勒比在过去三年中几乎增长了三倍，而竞争对手 NCL 的交易价格实际上下降了 13%。如果看五年，皇家加勒比是一个五倍收益者。NCL 的年化回报为 5%。</p>
</div><p>If there's a takeaway for investors here, it's that paying a premium is worth it for a superior operator in the same industry. There is a sound argument to be made that Norwegian Cruise Line represents a compelling value here, and I don't agree. I own a stake in NCL, but I have a larger position in Royal Caribbean. The gap should widen if history is any kind of teacher. The long-term prospects for the cruising industry are promising once you look past the current waves of tariffs and economic concerns. Just don't assume that every cruise line stock has the same seaworthiness before boarding the ship.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投资者能从中得到一个启示，那就是为同一行业的优质运营商支付溢价是值得的。可以说挪威邮轮在这里代表了一个引人注目的价值，但我并不认同。我持有 NCL 的股份，但在皇家加勒比的持仓更大。如果历史是任何一种老师，这一差距应该会扩大。一旦你超越当前的关税和经济担忧，邮轮行业的长期前景是乐观的。只要在登船前不要假设每个邮轮公司的股票都有相同的适航性。</p>
</div>

两家邮轮公司股票的故事