<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png"/></p>
<p>布伦特原油价格本周持续承压，全球供应担忧加剧。周一价格跌至 58.7 美元，为 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水平，同时花旗、摩根士丹利和高盛等公司的分析师纷纷下调了原油价格预测。</p>
<h2>原油价格为何暴跌</h2>
<p>布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）价格暴跌，徘徊在多年来的最低水平。这一下降发生在供应与需求失衡的担忧加剧之际。</p>
<p>国际能源署（IEA）和能源信息署（EIA）的分析师均下调了需求预估，原因是美国与其他国家之间的贸易战加剧。</p>
<p>EIA 将其需求预估下调了 30 万桶/天，这意味着今年的年增长将仅为 73 万桶。同样，EIA 和 OPEC 也都下调了今年的需求预估。</p>
<p>与此同时，国际货币基金组织（IMF）下调了全球增长预估，现在预计今年的平均增长率为 2.8%，2026 年为 3%。这些预估低于之前的 3.3%。当全球经济表现不佳时，石油需求通常会下降。</p>
<p>阅读更多：布伦特原油价格为何可能很快跌破 50 美元</p>
<h2>供应担忧促使花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利下调预测</h2>
<p>由于全球供应上升的担忧，布伦特原油价格也有所下跌。</p>
<p>OPEC+ 成员国宣布将日生产量增加超过 40 万桶。这是该卡特尔连续第二次决定增加日产量。</p>
<p>如果伊朗与美国达成协议，预计将有更多供应来自伊朗。由于其经济困境，该国在未来几个月达成协议的可能性较大。</p>
<p>持续的供需失衡解释了为何分析师下调了原油价格预测。巴克莱将其今年的预测下调了每桶 4 美元，至 66 美元，2026 年为 60 美元。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的分析师将其原油预测下调至 62.50 美元，预计原油市场的过剩将达到每日 110 万桶，比之前的预估增加了 40 万桶。</p>
<p>同样，高盛的分析师预计今年原油价格将跌至 60 美元，低于之前的 63 美元预估。它还预计去年价格将跌至 52 美元。</p>
<p>有迹象表明，石油生产商正在调整预算。俄罗斯大部分收入来自能源。根据彭博社的报道，该国现在考虑在价格暴跌时改变其预算编制机制，将预算门槛从 60 美元降低至 50 美元。</p>
<h2>布伦特原油价格预测</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png"/></p>
<p>布伦特原油价格图表</p>
<p>我们最后的原油预测指向更多下行，预计布伦特将在今年晚些时候跌破 50 美元。这个预测目前进展良好，布伦特已跌至 58.7 美元，为多年来的最低水平。</p>
<p>主要原因是布伦特形成了一个下降三角形模式，这是一种常见的看跌延续信号。它已跌破关键支撑位 70 美元，即该三角形的下边界。</p>
<p>布伦特价格仍低于所有移动平均线，所有振荡器均指向下方。因此，价格可能会继续下跌，下一个关注的目标是心理关口 50 美元。若跌破该水平，将指向进一步下行，可能达到 47 美元。</p>
<p>该目标是通过测量三角形最宽部分并从下边界测量相同的距离得出的。若突破 70 美元的阻力位，将使看跌的原油预测失效。</p>
<p>该文章最初发表于 Invezz，标题为《花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利的布伦特原油价格预测》。</p>

摩根士丹利

高盛

花旗

<p>布伦特原油价格已降至 58.7 美元，为 2021 年 2 月以来的最低点，原因是对全球供需失衡的担忧。花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利的分析师已下调了他们的预测，高盛预测价格将降至 60 美元，摩根士丹利则预测为 62.50 美元。国际能源署和欧佩克也在全球经济放缓的背景下下调了需求预期。欧佩克 + 持续增加产量以及与伊朗的潜在交易进一步加剧了供应担忧，导致市场预测价格可能跌破 50 美元</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Oil-pumping.png"/></p>
<p>Brent crude oil price remained under pressure this week as concerns about global supply continued. It dropped to a low of $58.7 on Monday, its lowest level since February 2021 also as analysts from companies like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley slashed their oil price forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油价格本周持续承压，全球供应担忧加剧。周一价格跌至 58.7 美元，为 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水平，同时花旗、摩根士丹利和高盛等公司的分析师纷纷下调了原油价格预测。</p>
</div><h2>Why crude oil price is crashing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>原油价格为何暴跌</h2>
</div><p>Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have crashed and are hovering at their lowest level in years. This decline happened amid the rising concerns of a supply and demand imbalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）价格暴跌，徘徊在多年来的最低水平。这一下降发生在供应与需求失衡的担忧加剧之际。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have all downgraded their demand estimates because of the rising trade war between the United States and other countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署（IEA）和能源信息署（EIA）的分析师均下调了需求预估，原因是美国与其他国家之间的贸易战加剧。</p>
</div><p>The EIA reduced its demand estimate by 300k barrels of oil a day, meaning that its annual growth will continue by just 730k this year. Similarly, the EIA and OPEC have all lowered their demand estimates for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EIA 将其需求预估下调了 30 万桶/天，这意味着今年的年增长将仅为 73 万桶。同样，EIA 和 OPEC 也都下调了今年的需求预估。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its global growth estimate, and now expects the average rate to be 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026. These estimates are lower than the previous guidance of 3.3%. Oil demand often fall when the global economy is not doing well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，国际货币基金组织（IMF）下调了全球增长预估，现在预计今年的平均增长率为 2.8%，2026 年为 3%。这些预估低于之前的 3.3%。当全球经济表现不佳时，石油需求通常会下降。</p>
</div><p>Read more: Here’s why the Brent crude oil price could crash below $50 soon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读更多：布伦特原油价格为何可能很快跌破 50 美元</p>
</div><h2>Supply concerns pushes Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley to slash forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>供应担忧促使花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利下调预测</h2>
</div><p>The Brent crude oil price has also dropped as concerns about the rising global supply remain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于全球供应上升的担忧，布伦特原油价格也有所下跌。</p>
</div><p>OPEC+ member countries announced that they would increase the daily production by over 400k barrels a day. It was the second time in a row that the cartel has decided to increase the daily output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OPEC+ 成员国宣布将日生产量增加超过 40 万桶。这是该卡特尔连续第二次决定增加日产量。</p>
</div><p>More supply will likely come from Iran if it reaches a deal with the United States. With its economy struggling, there is a likelihood that the country will be open to a deal in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗与美国达成协议，预计将有更多供应来自伊朗。由于其经济困境，该国在未来几个月达成协议的可能性较大。</p>
</div><p>The ongoing supply and demand imbalance explains why analysts have slashed their crude oil price forecast. Barclays has slashed its forecast by $4 per barrel to $66 for this year and $60% for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的供需失衡解释了为何分析师下调了原油价格预测。巴克莱将其今年的预测下调了每桶 4 美元，至 66 美元，2026 年为 60 美元。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their oil prediction to $62.50 as it expect the oil market glut to hit 1.1 million barrels a day, up by 400k from its previous estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的分析师将其原油预测下调至 62.50 美元，预计原油市场的过剩将达到每日 110 万桶，比之前的预估增加了 40 万桶。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, analysts at Goldman Sachs see the crude oil price falling to $60 this year, down from the previous estimate of $63. It also sees the price falling to $52 last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，高盛的分析师预计今年原油价格将跌至 60 美元，低于之前的 63 美元预估。它还预计去年价格将跌至 52 美元。</p>
</div><p>There are signs that oil producers are adjusting their budgets. Russia, which makes most of its money from energy. According to Bloomberg <strong>,</strong> the country is now considering changing its budget-building mechanism as prices plunge. It will do that by reducing the threshold of its budget from $60 to $50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有迹象表明，石油生产商正在调整预算。俄罗斯大部分收入来自能源。根据彭博社的报道，该国现在考虑在价格暴跌时改变其预算编制机制，将预算门槛从 60 美元降低至 50 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Brent crude oil price forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>布伦特原油价格预测</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Brent-crude-oil-1024x569.png"/></p>
<p>Brent crude oil price chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油价格图表</p>
</div><p>Our last crude oil predictionpointed to more downside, with Brent falling to below $50 later this year. This forecast continues to work out well as Brent has dropped to $58.7, its lowest level in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们最后的原油预测指向更多下行，预计布伦特将在今年晚些时候跌破 50 美元。这个预测目前进展良好，布伦特已跌至 58.7 美元，为多年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The main reason for this is that Brent has formed a descending triangle pattern, a popular bearish continuation sign. It has dropped below the key support level at $70, the lower side of this triangle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要原因是布伦特形成了一个下降三角形模式，这是一种常见的看跌延续信号。它已跌破关键支撑位 70 美元，即该三角形的下边界。</p>
</div><p>Brent remains below all moving averages, while all oscillators have pointed downwards. Therefore, the price will likely continue falling, with the next target to watch being the psychological point at $50. A move below that level will point to further downside, potentially to $47.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特价格仍低于所有移动平均线，所有振荡器均指向下方。因此，价格可能会继续下跌，下一个关注的目标是心理关口 50 美元。若跌破该水平，将指向进一步下行，可能达到 47 美元。</p>
</div><p>This target is derived from measuring the widest part of the triangle and then measuring the same from the lower side. A move above the resistance at $70 will invalidate the bearish oil forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该目标是通过测量三角形最宽部分并从下边界测量相同的距离得出的。若突破 70 美元的阻力位，将使看跌的原油预测失效。</p>
</div><p>The post Brent crude oil price forecast by Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该文章最初发表于 Invezz，标题为《花旗、高盛和摩根士丹利的布伦特原油价格预测》。</p>
</div>

花旗银行、高盛集团和摩根士丹利对布伦特原油价格的预测