<p>自 2023 年初以来，华尔街上没有比人工智能（AI）的发展更热门的趋势。赋予软件和系统能够独立推理和行动的工具，甚至可能在没有人类监督的情况下学习新工作和技能，这是一项具有颠覆性创新的重大市场机会。</p>
<p>虽然关于人工智能对经济增长的贡献估计各不相同，但普华永道（PwC）预计到 2030 年，其全球可寻址市场将达到 15.7 万亿美元。如果人工智能的实际影响接近这个数字，那么将会有多个赢家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtcXVvdGUtYmVhci1idWxsLXRyYWRpbmctaW52ZXN0LXNob3J0LW9wdGlvbnMtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtcXVvdGUtYmVhci1idWxsLXRyYWRpbmctaW52ZXN0LXNob3J0LW9wdGlvbnMtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>到目前为止，没有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.02%）更直接地受益于人工智能的崛起。其估值从 2022 年底的 3600 亿美元攀升至不到两年内超过 3 万亿美元。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构已成为希望在人工智能创新前沿的企业首选芯片。</p>
<h2>严峻的现实：Nvidia 可能处于泡沫中</h2>
<p>但 Nvidia 也有可能处于泡沫之中，这将使其他紧随其后的有影响力的企业在估值方面超越它。</p>
<p>首先，过去三十多年没有任何颠覆性创新、技术或趋势在其早期扩张阶段避免过泡沫破裂事件。这意味着投资者常常高估早期采用率和备受推崇的技术和创新的广泛实用性。最终，这导致了高期望未能实现。如果人工智能泡沫形成并破裂，毫无疑问将对 Nvidia 的股票造成严重打击。</p>
<p>在 AI-GPU 领域，竞争也在加剧——尽管来自一个不太可能的来源。尽管直接竞争对手正在加大对企业数据中心高性能芯片的生产，但最大的担忧可能是 Nvidia 的许多顶级客户正在内部开发自己的芯片以用于他们的数据中心。</p>
<p>即使这些 AI-GPU 的计算潜力不及 Nvidia 的硬件，它们的价格也会显著更低，并且不会出现积压。Nvidia 失去未来订单的可能性非常真实，或者至少失去其溢价定价能力。</p>
<p>我预计这些逆风将在未来三年内压制 Nvidia 的股票，并使以下五家公司超越其市值。请注意，我排除了 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Apple</strong>，因为截至目前，它们的市值已经高于 Nvidia。</p>
<h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
<p>在未来三年内，最有可能超越 Nvidia 估值的公司是电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.48%）。我认为亚马逊正处于一个可能使其在十年之交成为最大上市公司的轨道上。</p>
<p>虽然大多数人熟悉亚马逊是因为其全球主导的在线市场，但其增长引擎主要与其云基础设施服务平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）相关。根据 Canalys 的估计，AWS 在 2024 年第四季度占所有云基础设施服务支出的三分之一。更重要的是，它的年同比增长率在高十几个百分点，年销售额达到 1170 亿美元，且利润率较高。</p>
<p>亚马逊的其他高增长附属业务也不甘示弱。作为首屈一指的社交媒体目的地之一，使其成为广告领域的明星。即使在经济环境严峻的情况下，广告服务收入也在以近 20% 的恒定货币基础上增长。当与 Prime 订阅的卓越定价能力结合时，亚马逊在未来三到五年内，甚至更久，具备产生超额现金流增长的工具。</p>
<h2>2. Alphabet</h2>
<p>谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -0.42%）（GOOG -0.34%）是第二只在未来三年内有催化剂可以超越 Nvidia 的股票。</p>
<p>与亚马逊类似，Alphabet 依靠其云基础设施服务平台（Google Cloud）来提升其增长潜力和运营现金流。Google Cloud 正在整合人工智能，为其客户提供生成式 AI 解决方案和大型语言模型工具。这个高利润率的细分市场自 2023 年以来一直保持盈利，截止到 2025 年 3 月的季度，年销售额约为 490 亿美元。</p>
<p>但即使 Alphabet 依赖人工智能来推动其高利润率的增长率，它也有一个基础的现金牛可以在人工智能泡沫破裂时依靠。根据 GlobalStats 的数据，截至 2025 年 4 月，谷歌在全球互联网搜索中几乎占据 90% 的市场份额，几乎形成了垄断。经济增长周期的异常长，加上谷歌的近乎垄断地位，使得这一细分市场成为 Alphabet 可持续的现金生成器。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvd29yay1mcm9tLWhvbWUtbGFwdG9wLWJ1c2luZXNzd29tYW4td2hlZWxjaGFpci1jb2ZmZWUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvd29yay1mcm9tLWhvbWUtbGFwdG9wLWJ1c2luZXNzd29tYW4td2hlZWxjaGFpci1jb2ZmZWUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>3. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p>如果说在未来三年内有哪家公司有逻辑超越 Nvidia 市值的可能性，那么社交媒体巨头 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META -1.84%）无疑符合这一条件。</p>
<p>Meta 是一家以广告为驱动的企业——甚至比 Alphabet 更甚。尽管后者在截至 3 月的季度中 74% 的净销售额来自广告，但 Meta 的社交媒体平台在第一季度中几乎 98% 的 423 亿美元总收入来自广告。</p>
<p>没有其他社交媒体公司能够接近 Meta 在 2025 年 3 月平均吸引的 34.3 亿日活跃用户。拥有包括 Facebook、WhatsApp、Instagram、Threads 和 Facebook Messenger 在内的超受欢迎平台，确保了企业愿意支付溢价以将其信息展示给用户。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 还坐拥一笔令人羡慕的资本宝藏。到 3 月底，它的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券达到了 702 亿美元，并且在 2025 年头三个月中产生了超过 240 亿美元的净现金流。这笔现金使 Meta 能够从容不迫地开发潜在的颠覆性创新，例如元宇宙。</p>
<h2>4. Visa</h2>
<p>尽管在这个名单上它是一个长线投资，但根据其当前的市值 “仅” 为 6660 亿美元，支付服务商 <strong>Visa</strong>(V -0.08%) 具备了超越 Nvidia 的必要催化剂，前提是后者面临的逆风。</p>
<p>Visa 持续的两位数销售和盈利增长率源于其在国内支付处理领域的主导地位，以及在海外市场潜在的数十年扩张空间。根据 eMarketer 收集的数据，Visa 在 2023 年处理了约 6.45 万亿美元的国内信用卡网络购买量。这比市场份额排名第 2 至第 4 的公司总和多出近 2.4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>除了在美国产生稳定的商户费用外，跨境支付量也持续以两位数的百分比增长。Visa 拥有资本和现金流，可以有机或通过收购进入增长更快（且长期缺乏银行服务）的新兴市场。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png"/></p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的 A 类股票（BRK.A）在 60 年间实现了近 20% 的年化回报。BRK.A 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>5. Berkshire Hathaway</h2>
<p>最后但同样重要的是，我完全相信稳健的乌龟会胜过兔子。尽管 Nvidia 的股票在 2023 年和 2024 年呈现抛物线增长，但沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.06%)(BRK.B 0.18%) 在六十年间实现了近 20% 的年化回报。如果伯克希尔继续保持这一轨迹，到 2028 年中期，它可能成为一家价值 2 万亿美元的公司。</p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦成功的原因之一是巴菲特偏爱周期性业务。无论是他收购的公司还是投资的公司，奥马哈的先知都青睐与美国经济波动相伴的企业。巴菲特正确地认识到，尽管衰退是不可避免的，但经济扩张的持续时间远远超过衰退。因此，他将伯克希尔的投资组合和五十多家拥有的企业定位于利用美国经济增长的这些漫长时期。</p>
<p>此外，沃伦·巴菲特喜欢将伯克希尔的现金投入到具有强大资本回报计划的公司中。伯克希尔哈撒韦在未来一年内收取超过 50 亿美元的股息收入应该没有问题。</p>
<p>在《股息的力量：过去、现在和未来》中，哈特福德基金的研究人员与内德·戴维斯研究公司合作，显示在过去 51 年（1973-2024 年）中，股息股票在回报方面远超非支付股票：股息股票的年化回报为 9.2%，而非支付股票的年化回报为 4.31%。依赖股息股票表明伯克希尔的投资组合在长期内将表现优于其他投资。</p>

亚马逊

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>这篇文章讨论了五只股票在未来三年内有可能超越英伟达估值的潜力，这一趋势受到人工智能（AI）崛起的推动。英伟达从 AI 进步中受益匪浅，但对潜在泡沫的担忧以及日益激烈的竞争可能会阻碍其增长。亚马逊和谷歌被强调为强有力的竞争者，因为它们强大的云服务和 AI 整合，使其在不断发展的市场中具备了可观的增长潜力</p>

<p>Since the start of 2023, there hasn't been a hotter trend on Wall Street than the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with tools that allow them to reason and act on their own, and potentially even learn new jobs and skillsets without the need for human oversight, is a game-changing innovation with a <em>big</em> addressable market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年初以来，华尔街上没有比人工智能（AI）的发展更热门的趋势。赋予软件和系统能够独立推理和行动的工具，甚至可能在没有人类监督的情况下学习新工作和技能，这是一项具有颠覆性创新的重大市场机会。</p>
</div><p>While estimates of just how much AI can contribute to economic growth are all over the map, PwC pegged its global addressable market at a cool $15.7 trillion by 2030. If the actual impact of artificial intelligence is anywhere in the ballpark of this figure, there are going to be multiple winners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然关于人工智能对经济增长的贡献估计各不相同，但普华永道（PwC）预计到 2030 年，其全球可寻址市场将达到 15.7 万亿美元。如果人工智能的实际影响接近这个数字，那么将会有多个赢家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtcXVvdGUtYmVhci1idWxsLXRyYWRpbmctaW52ZXN0LXNob3J0LW9wdGlvbnMtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817047%2Fstock-chart-quote-bear-bull-trading-invest-short-options-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Thus far, no company has more directly benefited from the rise of AI than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.02%). Its valuation climbed from $360 billion to end 2022 to well north of $3 trillion in less than two years. Nvidia's Hopper (H100) graphics processing unit (GPU) and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture have been the preferred chips used by businesses wanting to be on the leading edge of AI innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，没有哪家公司比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.02%）更直接地受益于人工智能的崛起。其估值从 2022 年底的 3600 亿美元攀升至不到两年内超过 3 万亿美元。Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架构已成为希望在人工智能创新前沿的企业首选芯片。</p>
</div><h2>The grim reality: Nvidia might be in a bubble</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>严峻的现实：Nvidia 可能处于泡沫中</h2>
</div><p>But there's also a realistic chance Nvidia is in a bubble, which would allow other influential businesses nipping at its heels to leapfrog it in the valuation department.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Nvidia 也有可能处于泡沫之中，这将使其他紧随其后的有影响力的企业在估值方面超越它。</p>
</div><p>To begin with, there hasn't been a game-changing innovation, technology, or trend for more than three decades that's avoided a bubble-bursting event in its early expansion phase. This is to say that investors frequently overestimate early adoption rates and the broad-based utility of highly touted technologies and innovations. Eventually, it leads to lofty expectations not being met. If an AI bubble were to form and burst, it would undoubtedly hit Nvidia stock hard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，过去三十多年没有任何颠覆性创新、技术或趋势在其早期扩张阶段避免过泡沫破裂事件。这意味着投资者常常高估早期采用率和备受推崇的技术和创新的广泛实用性。最终，这导致了高期望未能实现。如果人工智能泡沫形成并破裂，毫无疑问将对 Nvidia 的股票造成严重打击。</p>
</div><p>Competition is also mounting in the AI-GPU space -- albeit from an unlikely source. Though direct competitors are ramping up production of high-powered chips for enterprise data centers, the biggest worry might be that most of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are internally developing chips of their own to use in their data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 AI-GPU 领域，竞争也在加剧——尽管来自一个不太可能的来源。尽管直接竞争对手正在加大对企业数据中心高性能芯片的生产，但最大的担忧可能是 Nvidia 的许多顶级客户正在内部开发自己的芯片以用于他们的数据中心。</p>
</div><p>Even if these AI-GPUs lack the compute potential of Nvidia's hardware, they'll be notably cheaper and not backlogged. There's a very real possibility of Nvidia losing out on future orders, or at the very least losing its premium pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使这些 AI-GPU 的计算潜力不及 Nvidia 的硬件，它们的价格也会显著更低，并且不会出现积压。Nvidia 失去未来订单的可能性非常真实，或者至少失去其溢价定价能力。</p>
</div><p>I'd expect these headwinds to weigh down Nvidia stock over the coming three years and allow the following five companies to surpass its market cap. Note, I'm excluding <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Apple</strong> since their market caps are already higher than Nvidia, as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我预计这些逆风将在未来三年内压制 Nvidia 的股票，并使以下五家公司超越其市值。请注意，我排除了 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Apple</strong>，因为截至目前，它们的市值已经高于 Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>The likeliest of all companies to surpass Nvidia's valuation at some point over the next three years is e-commerce colossus <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.48%). I'd argue Amazon is on a trajectory that could make it the largest publicly traded company by the turn of the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来三年内，最有可能超越 Nvidia 估值的公司是电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.48%）。我认为亚马逊正处于一个可能使其在十年之交成为最大上市公司的轨道上。</p>
</div><p>While most people are familiar with Amazon because of its globally dominant online marketplace, its growth engine is primarily tied to its cloud infrastructure service platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS accounted for a third of all cloud infrastructure service spend during the fourth quarter of 2024, based on estimates from Canalys. More importantly, it's growing by a high-teens percentage on a year-over-year basis, with $117 billion in high-margin, annual run-rate sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然大多数人熟悉亚马逊是因为其全球主导的在线市场，但其增长引擎主要与其云基础设施服务平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）相关。根据 Canalys 的估计，AWS 在 2024 年第四季度占所有云基础设施服务支出的三分之一。更重要的是，它的年同比增长率在高十几个百分点，年销售额达到 1170 亿美元，且利润率较高。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's other high-growth ancillary segments aren't slouches, either. Being one of the premier social media destinations has made it an advertising rockstar. Even in a challenging economic environment, advertising services revenue is climbing by nearly 20% on a constant-currency basis. When coupled with the exceptional pricing power of Prime subscriptions, Amazon has the tools to generate outsized cash flow growth over the next three-to-five years, if not well beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的其他高增长附属业务也不甘示弱。作为首屈一指的社交媒体目的地之一，使其成为广告领域的明星。即使在经济环境严峻的情况下，广告服务收入也在以近 20% 的恒定货币基础上增长。当与 Prime 订阅的卓越定价能力结合时，亚马逊在未来三到五年内，甚至更久，具备产生超额现金流增长的工具。</p>
</div><h2>2. Alphabet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Alphabet</h2>
</div><p>Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.42%) (GOOG -0.34%) is a second stock that has the catalysts to leapfrog Nvidia in the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -0.42%）（GOOG -0.34%）是第二只在未来三年内有催化剂可以超越 Nvidia 的股票。</p>
</div><p>Similar to Amazon, Alphabet is leaning on its cloud infrastructure service platform (Google Cloud) to ramp up its growth potential and operating cash flow. Google Cloud is incorporating artificial intelligence to give its clients access to generative AI solutions and large language model tools. This high-margin segment has been recurringly profitable for Alphabet since 2023, and is generating around $49 billion in annual run-rate sales, as of the March-ended quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与亚马逊类似，Alphabet 依靠其云基础设施服务平台（Google Cloud）来提升其增长潜力和运营现金流。Google Cloud 正在整合人工智能，为其客户提供生成式 AI 解决方案和大型语言模型工具。这个高利润率的细分市场自 2023 年以来一直保持盈利，截止到 2025 年 3 月的季度，年销售额约为 490 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But even though Alphabet is relying on AI to supercharge its high-margin growth rate, it has a foundational cash cow to fall back on in the event the AI bubble bursts. Google operates as a near-monopoly in global internet search, with just shy of a 90% share, as of April 2025, per GlobalStats. Disproportionately long economic growth cycles, coupled with Google's near-monopoly status, makes this segment a sustainable cash generator for Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使 Alphabet 依赖人工智能来推动其高利润率的增长率，它也有一个基础的现金牛可以在人工智能泡沫破裂时依靠。根据 GlobalStats 的数据，截至 2025 年 4 月，谷歌在全球互联网搜索中几乎占据 90% 的市场份额，几乎形成了垄断。经济增长周期的异常长，加上谷歌的近乎垄断地位，使得这一细分市场成为 Alphabet 可持续的现金生成器。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwNDcvd29yay1mcm9tLWhvbWUtbGFwdG9wLWJ1c2luZXNzd29tYW4td2hlZWxjaGFpci1jb2ZmZWUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817047%2Fwork-from-home-laptop-businesswoman-wheelchair-coffee-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>3. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p>If there's such a thing as a logical choice to surpass Nvidia's market cap in the coming three years, social media titan <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -1.84%) certainly fits the bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果说在未来三年内有哪家公司有逻辑超越 Nvidia 市值的可能性，那么社交媒体巨头 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META -1.84%）无疑符合这一条件。</p>
</div><p>Meta is an ad-driven business -- even more so than Alphabet. Whereas the latter generated 74% of its net sales in the March-ended quarter from advertising, Meta's social media destinations brought in just shy of 98% of its $42.3 billion in total revenue from ads in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 是一家以广告为驱动的企业——甚至比 Alphabet 更甚。尽管后者在截至 3 月的季度中 74% 的净销售额来自广告，但 Meta 的社交媒体平台在第一季度中几乎 98% 的 423 亿美元总收入来自广告。</p>
</div><p>No other social media company is particularly close to attracting the 3.43 billion daily active people that Meta averaged in March 2025. Having ultra-popular platforms, including Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Threads, and Facebook Messenger ensures that businesses will pay a premium to get their message(s) in front of users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有其他社交媒体公司能够接近 Meta 在 2025 年 3 月平均吸引的 34.3 亿日活跃用户。拥有包括 Facebook、WhatsApp、Instagram、Threads 和 Facebook Messenger 在内的超受欢迎平台，确保了企业愿意支付溢价以将其信息展示给用户。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms is also sitting on an enviable treasure chest of capital. It closed out March with $70.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, as well as generated north of $24 billion in net cash from operations in the first three months of 2025. This cash affords Meta the luxury of slow-stepping the development of potentially game-changing innovations, such as the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 还坐拥一笔令人羡慕的资本宝藏。到 3 月底，它的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券达到了 702 亿美元，并且在 2025 年头三个月中产生了超过 240 亿美元的净现金流。这笔现金使 Meta 能够从容不迫地开发潜在的颠覆性创新，例如元宇宙。</p>
</div><h2>4. Visa</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. Visa</h2>
</div><p>Though it's the longshot on this list, based on its current market cap of &#34;just&#34; $666 billion, payment facilitator <strong>Visa</strong>(V -0.08%) has the necessary catalysts to leapfrog Nvidia, when combined with the latter's headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在这个名单上它是一个长线投资，但根据其当前的市值 “仅” 为 6660 亿美元，支付服务商 <strong>Visa</strong>(V -0.08%) 具备了超越 Nvidia 的必要催化剂，前提是后者面临的逆风。</p>
</div><p>Visa's sustained double-digit sales and earnings growth rate is a function of its being the dominant player in payment processing domestically, as well as having a potentially multidecade expansion runway in overseas markets. According to data collected by eMarketer, Visa handled about $6.45 trillion in credit card network purchase volume domestically in 2023. This was nearly $2.4 trillion more than No.'s 2 through 4 in market share, <em>combined</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Visa 持续的两位数销售和盈利增长率源于其在国内支付处理领域的主导地位，以及在海外市场潜在的数十年扩张空间。根据 eMarketer 收集的数据，Visa 在 2023 年处理了约 6.45 万亿美元的国内信用卡网络购买量。这比市场份额排名第 2 至第 4 的公司总和多出近 2.4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Aside from generating consistent merchant fees in the U.S., cross-border payment volume has been continually growing by a double-digit percentage. Visa has the capital and cash flow to organically or acquisitively enter faster-growing (and chronically underbanked) emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了在美国产生稳定的商户费用外，跨境支付量也持续以两位数的百分比增长。Visa 拥有资本和现金流，可以有机或通过收购进入增长更快（且长期缺乏银行服务）的新兴市场。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4058fb22cf7fe3d769779fd2583c98be.png"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway's Class A stock (BRK.A) has delivered a nearly 20% annualized return spanning 60 years. BRK.A data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的 A 类股票（BRK.A）在 60 年间实现了近 20% 的年化回报。BRK.A 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>5. Berkshire Hathaway</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. Berkshire Hathaway</h2>
</div><p>Last but certainly not least, I fully expect the steady tortoise to beat the hare. While Nvidia's stock went parabolic in 2023 and 2024, it's Warren Buffett's <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.06%) (BRK.B 0.18%) that's managed a nearly 20% annualized return over six decades. If Berkshire stuck to this trajectory, it could become a $2 trillion company by the midpoint of 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后但同样重要的是，我完全相信稳健的乌龟会胜过兔子。尽管 Nvidia 的股票在 2023 年和 2024 年呈现抛物线增长，但沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.06%)(BRK.B 0.18%) 在六十年间实现了近 20% 的年化回报。如果伯克希尔继续保持这一轨迹，到 2028 年中期，它可能成为一家价值 2 万亿美元的公司。</p>
</div><p>One of the reasons Berkshire Hathaway is such a success is Buffett favoriting cyclical businesses. Whether it's companies he's acquired or invested in, the Oracle of Omaha favors businesses that ebb-and-flow with the U.S. economy. Buffett rightly recognizes that, even though recessions are inevitable, economic expansions last significantly longer than downturns. Thus, he's positioned Berkshire's investment portfolio and five dozen owned businesses to take advantage of these lengthy periods of U.S. growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦成功的原因之一是巴菲特偏爱周期性业务。无论是他收购的公司还是投资的公司，奥马哈的先知都青睐与美国经济波动相伴的企业。巴菲特正确地认识到，尽管衰退是不可避免的，但经济扩张的持续时间远远超过衰退。因此，他将伯克希尔的投资组合和五十多家拥有的企业定位于利用美国经济增长的这些漫长时期。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Warren Buffett loves putting Berkshire's cash to work in companies with robust capital-return programs. Berkshire Hathaway should have no trouble collecting in excess of $5 billion in dividend income over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，沃伦·巴菲特喜欢将伯克希尔的现金投入到具有强大资本回报计划的公司中。伯克希尔哈撒韦在未来一年内收取超过 50 亿美元的股息收入应该没有问题。</p>
</div><p>In <em>The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future</em>, the researchers at Hartford Funds, in collaboration with Ned Davis Research, showed that dividend stocks crushed non-payers in the return column over the last 51 years (1973-2024): 9.2% (annualized) for dividend stocks vs. 4.31% (annualized) for non-payers. Relying on dividend stocks suggests Berkshire's investment portfolio is going to outperform over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《股息的力量：过去、现在和未来》中，哈特福德基金的研究人员与内德·戴维斯研究公司合作，显示在过去 51 年（1973-2024 年）中，股息股票在回报方面远超非支付股票：股息股票的年化回报为 9.2%，而非支付股票的年化回报为 4.31%。依赖股息股票表明伯克希尔的投资组合在长期内将表现优于其他投资。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 5 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Nvidia 3 Years From Now

- 2023 年，人工智能成为华尔街的热门趋势，市场潜力达 15.7 万亿美元。  
- Nvidia 因 AI 崛起市值暴涨，但面临竞争和泡沫风险。  
- 预计 Amazon、Alphabet、Meta、Visa 和 Berkshire Hathaway 将超越 Nvidia 市值。

预测：5 只股票将在 3 年后价值超过人工智能（AI）股票英伟达