<p>亚马逊（AMZN -0.48%）创始人及前首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯最近采取了一项计划，允许他出售多达 2500 万股亚马逊股票，按 5 月 2 日收盘时的股价计算，这将达到近 47.5 亿美元。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，出售股票并不一定意味着某人看跌，因为内部人士通常在需要资金进行购买时会出售股票。然而，贝索斯很可能是因为他认为亚马逊的股票——或者整个市场——被高估或面临困难而选择出售。作为全球最大科技集团之一的创始人，贝索斯对市场力量的洞察力可能优于大多数人。</p>
<p>这一举动也发生在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特积累现金以及 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在 2 月份出售价值数亿美元的摩根大通股票之后，这让一些人认为这两位首席执行官是在向市场发出信号。贝索斯是否也向华尔街发出了类似的警告？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwMjMvcGVvcGxlLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtdGFibGV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwMjMvcGVvcGxlLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtdGFibGV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>贝索斯之前曾发出信号</h2>
<p>自公司成立并上市以来，贝索斯已经出售了大量股票，约 300 亿美元，其中相当一部分用于资助其他业务，如他的火箭公司蓝色起源。</p>
<p>这一历史可能表明贝索斯最近的计划并没有传达任何负面信息——他可能只是想要资金。但有趣的是，在 2023 年，贝索斯以约 114 美元的价格购买了一股亚马逊股票。许多人猜测他是在开玩笑或玩乐，但自那以来，亚马逊的股票价格飙升。值得注意的是，投资者将内部人士的购买视为明显的看涨信号，而出售并不总是看跌。</p>
<p>尽管如此，考虑到关税和全球贸易的现状，以及这些可能对亚马逊产生的影响，贝索斯在此时采取这一计划是独特的，亚马逊从中国采购了大量产品。亚马逊最近公布的财报并不算坏，但未能像 <strong>微软</strong> 那样激励投资者，微软的云收入同比增长了 35%。与此同时，亚马逊网络服务的季度收入同比增长了 17%，但略低于华尔街分析师的预期。</p>
<p>尽管亚马逊可能面临关税风险，首席执行官安迪·贾西在公司的财报电话会议上似乎对公司的业绩充满信心，他表示：“鉴于我们非常广泛的选择、低廉的价格和快速的交付，我们在这些不确定时期中相对市场份额比开始时更多，并且为未来做好了更好的准备。” 他说：“我乐观地认为这可能会再次发生。”</p>
<h2>如何看待贝索斯的出售</h2>
<p>没有人能确切说出贝索斯计划出售高达 47.5 亿美元股票的背后原因。尽管不再是首席执行官，贝索斯仍是亚马逊的执行董事长，并积极参与公司事务，因此我怀疑他会过于看跌。如果对中国的高关税持续存在，我也很难想象亚马逊不会找到适应的方法。</p>
<p>但即便在今年的抛售之后，亚马逊的股票自 2023 年 5 月以来仍上涨了惊人的 86%。美国经济衰退的可能性显然比近年来要高得多，而经济衰退无疑会削弱消费者需求。此外，投资者对人工智能需求也有疑问，这一直是推动亚马逊等股票的重要因素。几乎没有人怀疑人工智能的未来，但颠覆性技术并不总是以直线方式发展——看看互联网的早期阶段。贝索斯可能只是想在过去几年表现极为出色后，适当减持一些股份。</p>
<p>最终，我并不相信贝索斯是在向华尔街发出警告。他可能看到未来的麻烦，但我认为即使是像巴菲特这样的伟人也会告诉你，没有人能预测市场在短期内会如何变化。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯计划出售多达 2500 万股股票，潜在价值达 47.5 亿美元，这引发了人们对他市场前景的猜测。虽然内部人士的卖出行为并不总是被视为看跌，但这与沃伦·巴菲特和杰米·戴蒙等其他首席执行官的类似举动相呼应。尽管亚马逊最近的财报未能达到预期，首席执行官安迪·贾西对公司的未来依然持乐观态度。贝索斯的出售可能是一种战略举措，而非负面信号，因为自 2023 年 5 月以来，亚马逊的股价仍上涨了 86%，尽管人们对关税和潜在衰退表示担忧</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.48%) founder and former CEO Jeff Bezos recently adopted a plan that would allow him to sell as much as 25 million shares of Amazon, in what would amount to nearly $4.75 billion, based on Amazon's stock price at the close of trading on May 2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊（AMZN -0.48%）创始人及前首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯最近采取了一项计划，允许他出售多达 2500 万股亚马逊股票，按 5 月 2 日收盘时的股价计算，这将达到近 47.5 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, selling stock does not necessarily mean that someone is bearish, because insiders often sell stock if they need the money for a purchase. However, Bezos could very well be selling because he thinks Amazon's stock -- or the entire market -- is simply overvalued or facing an uphill battle. As the founder of one of the largest tech conglomerates in the world, Bezos likely has better insights into market forces than most.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，出售股票并不一定意味着某人看跌，因为内部人士通常在需要资金进行购买时会出售股票。然而，贝索斯很可能是因为他认为亚马逊的股票——或者整个市场——被高估或面临困难而选择出售。作为全球最大科技集团之一的创始人，贝索斯对市场力量的洞察力可能优于大多数人。</p>
</div><p>The move also comes after <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> CEO Warren Buffett stockpiled cash and <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong> <strong>'s</strong> CEO Jamie Dimon sold hundreds of millions of dollars worth of JPMorgan's stock in February, leading some to believe that both CEOs were trying to speak to the market. Did Bezos just fire off a similar warning shot to Wall Street?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动也发生在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特积累现金以及 <strong>摩根大通</strong> 首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在 2 月份出售价值数亿美元的摩根大通股票之后，这让一些人认为这两位首席执行官是在向市场发出信号。贝索斯是否也向华尔街发出了类似的警告？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcwMjMvcGVvcGxlLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtdGFibGV0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817023%2Fpeople-looking-at-tablet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Bezos has signaled before</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>贝索斯之前曾发出信号</h2>
</div><p>Since founding the company and taking it public, Bezos has sold a lot of stock, about $30 billion worth, a significant amount of which he has used to fund other businesses like his rocket ship company Blue Origin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自公司成立并上市以来，贝索斯已经出售了大量股票，约 300 亿美元，其中相当一部分用于资助其他业务，如他的火箭公司蓝色起源。</p>
</div><p>This history could suggest that Bezos' recent plan is not saying anything negative -- he just may want the capital. But in 2023, Bezos interestingly purchased a single share of Amazon stock for about $114. Many speculated he was trolling or having fun, but since then, shares of Amazon have rocketed higher. It's important to note that investors view insider buying as a clearly bullish signal, while selling is not always bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一历史可能表明贝索斯最近的计划并没有传达任何负面信息——他可能只是想要资金。但有趣的是，在 2023 年，贝索斯以约 114 美元的价格购买了一股亚马逊股票。许多人猜测他是在开玩笑或玩乐，但自那以来，亚马逊的股票价格飙升。值得注意的是，投资者将内部人士的购买视为明显的看涨信号，而出售并不总是看跌。</p>
</div><p>Still, it's a unique time for Bezos to adopt this plan, given what's happening with tariffs and global trade and how that might impact Amazon, which sources a significant number of its products from China. Amazon also recently reported earnings that weren't necessarily bad but failed to excite investors in the same way as companies like <strong>Microsoft</strong>, which grew its cloud revenue from Azure by 35% year over year. Meanwhile, Amazon Web Services revenue in the quarter grew 17% year over year but came in slightly below Wall Street analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，考虑到关税和全球贸易的现状，以及这些可能对亚马逊产生的影响，贝索斯在此时采取这一计划是独特的，亚马逊从中国采购了大量产品。亚马逊最近公布的财报并不算坏，但未能像 <strong>微软</strong> 那样激励投资者，微软的云收入同比增长了 35%。与此同时，亚马逊网络服务的季度收入同比增长了 17%，但略低于华尔街分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>Despite Amazon's potential exposure to tariffs, CEO Andy Jassy seemed confident on the company's earnings call that Amazon could handle whatever comes its way. &#34;Given our really broad selection, low pricing, and speedy delivery, we have emerged from these uncertain eras with more relative market segment share than we started and better set up for the future,&#34; he said. &#34;I'm optimistic this could happen again.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管亚马逊可能面临关税风险，首席执行官安迪·贾西在公司的财报电话会议上似乎对公司的业绩充满信心，他表示：“鉴于我们非常广泛的选择、低廉的价格和快速的交付，我们在这些不确定时期中相对市场份额比开始时更多，并且为未来做好了更好的准备。” 他说：“我乐观地认为这可能会再次发生。”</p>
</div><h2>What to make of Bezos' selling</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如何看待贝索斯的出售</h2>
</div><p>No one can say for sure what's behind Bezos' plan to sell up to $4.75 billion of stock. While no longer CEO, Bezos is still executive chairman of Amazon and actively involved in the company, so I doubt he's too bearish. It's also hard to imagine that Amazon won't find a way to adapt if high tariffs on China stay in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有人能确切说出贝索斯计划出售高达 47.5 亿美元股票的背后原因。尽管不再是首席执行官，贝索斯仍是亚马逊的执行董事长，并积极参与公司事务，因此我怀疑他会过于看跌。如果对中国的高关税持续存在，我也很难想象亚马逊不会找到适应的方法。</p>
</div><p>But even after the sell-off this year, Amazon's stock is still up a whopping 86% since May of 2023. The odds of a recession in the U.S. are certainly much higher than they have been in recent years, and a recession would certainly cut into consumer demand. Additionally, investors have questions about artificial intelligence demand, which has been a big driver for stocks like Amazon. Few doubt AI's future, but game-changing technology doesn't always work in a straight line -- just look at the early days of the internet. Bezos simply might be taking some chips off the table after what's been an extraordinarily good few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即便在今年的抛售之后，亚马逊的股票自 2023 年 5 月以来仍上涨了惊人的 86%。美国经济衰退的可能性显然比近年来要高得多，而经济衰退无疑会削弱消费者需求。此外，投资者对人工智能需求也有疑问，这一直是推动亚马逊等股票的重要因素。几乎没有人怀疑人工智能的未来，但颠覆性技术并不总是以直线方式发展——看看互联网的早期阶段。贝索斯可能只是想在过去几年表现极为出色后，适当减持一些股份。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, I'm not convinced Bezos is firing off a warning shot to Wall Street. He might see trouble in the future, but I think even the greats like Buffett would tell you that nobody can predict what the market will do in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，我并不相信贝索斯是在向华尔街发出警告。他可能看到未来的麻烦，但我认为即使是像巴菲特这样的伟人也会告诉你，没有人能预测市场在短期内会如何变化。</p>
</div>

Did Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos Just Fire Off a Warning Shot to Wall Street?

- 贝索斯计划出售最多 2500 万股亚马逊股票，价值约 47.5 亿美元。  
- 此举可能反映他对市场的看法，但也可能是资金需求。  
- 亚马逊股票自 2023 年 5 月以来仍上涨 86%。

亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯是否刚刚向华尔街发出了警告信号？