<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.07%) 的股价在上周发布的财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日）财报后下跌，这并不令人意外。尽管这家 iPhone 制造商的收入和盈利均超出分析师的预期，但首席执行官蒂姆·库克确认，新施加的进口关税将会产生影响。在当前季度，仅关税就将使公司损失约 9 亿美元，几乎是上个季度 248 亿美元净收入的 4%。</p><p>不过，如果深入分析其历史业绩，关税或许并不是苹果目前面临的最大问题。其旗舰利润中心缺乏显著增长，以及在人工智能（AI）方面的持续挣扎，才是更大的挑战，并且可能会比关税的影响持续更久。</p><p>以下是这些问题为何对股东来说是合理的担忧。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ed0428af7a54e3c1191c6110a184a1dc?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ed0428af7a54e3c1191c6110a184a1dc"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="mv69le0ch">过去的季度不会再现（至少在短期内不会）</h2><p>在截至 3 月的三个月中，苹果实现了 954 亿美元的收入，转化为每股收益 1.65 美元。这两个数字均优于去年同期的 908 亿美元和 1.53 美元，并且都超出了分析师对 946 亿美元和每股 1.62 美元的预期。与往常一样，iPhone 大约占苹果业务的一半，销售额为 468 亿美元。公司的服务部门也继续表现出色。</p><p>那么，是什么促使股价回落呢？如上所述，主要是对关税的担忧。仅在财年第三季度，关税就将使公司损失约 900 亿美元，且没有缓解的迹象。尽管苹果理论上可以通过在其他关税较低的国家增加生产来减少对中国制造 iPhone 的依赖，但这样做并不容易、快速或便宜。</p><p>问题是，关税并不是这家公司目前面临的最大问题。还有两个更大的担忧应该让投资者感到忧虑。</p><h2 id="ypaiyvw4r">苹果的 iPhone 业务实际上相当停滞不前</h2><p>这些担忧中的第一个与 iPhone 相关。</p><p>尽管分析师界的几位成员以及许多金融媒体都宣称苹果在上个季度的 iPhone 收入实现了可观增长，但这种增长远非惊人。</p><p>看看下面的图表。根据 IDC 的数据，iPhone 的单位销量同比增长了 10%，但这是在去年同期几乎下降了同样多的基础上实现的 10% 的增长。换句话说，这次的基准设定相对较低。同时，实际的 iPhone 收入与 2022 年的峰值基本持平，上个季度仅增长了约 2%。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b16bb2465a667c3a768c0e266e31a945?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="511" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b16bb2465a667c3a768c0e266e31a945"/></figure><p>数据来源：苹果的收入数据（以百万计）。单位数据（以百万计）来自 IDC。</p><p>使这些疲软的 iPhone 数字更加令人担忧的是，许多消费者（至少据说）在关税生效之前急于购买新智能手机。如果没有这种推动，去季度的 iPhone 业务可能实际上会下降。无论如何，整体需求仍然停滞不前……充其量。</p><p>这是一个更大的问题，因为 iPhone 占苹果销售的一半，推测也占其利润的相应比例。</p><h2 id="yswucjcqb">人工智能仍然是一个薄弱环节</h2><p>另一个主要担忧，如前所述，是苹果在人工智能领域的进展（或缺乏进展）。</p><p>几乎没有人会否认这家公司在人工智能领域稍显滞后。尽管其早期版本的虚拟助手 Siri 在外观和表现上与最近推出的平台如谷歌（<strong>Alphabet</strong>）的 Gemini、<strong>微软</strong> 的 Copilot 和 ChatGPT 相似，但苹果直到去年才真正开始重视这一代 AI 聊天机器人。然而，到那时，其竞争对手已经在这一新兴市场中占据了主导地位。</p><p>令人惊讶且令人担忧的是，在此期间，这家公司在最基本的 AI 工具方面几乎没有取得任何进展。例如，苹果智能助手在 10 月的首次亮相就显得不够苹果，甚至没有接近包含公司最终打算为该技术提供的所有功能和能力。</p><p>而 Siri 的表现尤其令人担忧，如果 3 月苹果的 AI 负责人被解除 Siri 持续开发的职务是一个迹象的话。实际上，蒂姆·库克在最近的财报电话会议上被迫承认，新的改进版 Siri 的实施 “只是比我们想象的要花费更长的时间。” 这种措辞听起来像是首席执行官为了掩盖相当严重的开发挑战而使用的说辞。</p><p>更糟糕的是：谷歌首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊最近暗示，他的公司与苹果接近达成一项协议，允许苹果智能助手用户选择谷歌的 Gemini 作为其基础 AI 模型。苹果通常是孤立主义的，这样的决定证实了它在 AI 研发（R&amp;D）方面的落后程度。</p><p>这对当前和潜在的苹果投资者来说是一个担忧，因为人工智能预计将是一个重要的增长市场。行业研究机构 Market.Us 认为，全球 AI 驱动的虚拟助手业务预计将在 2034 年前以 31% 的年均增速增长——然而，苹果在这一领域却在引导客户转向其竞争对手。</p><h2 id="3c09a2rh7">不再是你最佳的投资选择</h2><p>这是否意味着末日来临？绝对不是。如果没有其他因素，苹果仍然是全球最盈利的公司。它可以收购任何需要的新收入技术，或者利用其可靠的现金流或账面上价值 1330 亿美元的相对流动资产回购股票。其高利润的服务部门也仍然表现良好。</p><p>即便如此，服务收入仅占公司收入的四分之一多一点，且不到其毛利润的一半。苹果仍然主要是一家以 iPhone 为主的公司。</p><p>忽视苹果的服务和设备销售是相辅相成的这一点也是天真的，后者在很大程度上推动了前者。虽然 iPhone 用户确实在应用和订阅上花费越来越多，但他们愿意花费的金额是有限的。我们每天都在接近这个限度。</p><p>结论是什么？苹果并不一定是一个需要出售的股票。在其股价比去年 12 月的高峰下跌超过 20% 时，甚至可以说有理由在此时介入，特别是如果你认为关税会缓解而不是成为永久性问题的话。尽管苹果的服务业务并不是其旗舰业务，但仍然令人印象深刻。</p><p>然而，毫无疑问，苹果不再是许多人几年前所优先考虑的必备投资。它在人工智能领域向能够保持新获得市场份额的竞争对手让步太多。同时，其 iPhone 业务也在横盘整理，似乎没有尽头。</p><p>在这个时候，你肯定能找到比苹果更有前景的投资机会。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票在其 2023 财年第二季度业绩公布后下跌，尽管收入和盈利均超出预期。首席执行官蒂姆·库克警告称，新进口关税将使公司在第三季度损失约 9 亿美元，但更深层次的问题正在显现。iPhone 销售增长停滞，收入仅增长 2%，引发了对需求的担忧。此外，苹果在人工智能开发方面落后，难以追赶竞争对手。最近其人工智能负责人被撤离 Siri 开发团队，突显了该领域面临的持续挑战</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.07%) shares fell following last week's release of the numbers for its fiscal second quarter (which ended March 29) -- and understandably so. Although the iPhone maker topped analysts' revenue and earnings estimates, CEO Tim Cook confirmed that newly imposed import tariffs will take their toll. In the current quarter alone, they'll cost the company on the order of $900 million: nearly 4% of last quarter's reported net income of $24.8 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.07%) 的股价在上周发布的财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日）财报后下跌，这并不令人意外。尽管这家 iPhone 制造商的收入和盈利均超出分析师的预期，但首席执行官蒂姆·库克确认，新施加的进口关税将会产生影响。在当前季度，仅关税就将使公司损失约 9 亿美元，几乎是上个季度 248 亿美元净收入的 4%。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs are arguably the least of Apple's problems right now, though, if you dig deeper into its historical results. A lack of meaningful growth from its flagship profit center and continued struggles with artificial intelligence (AI) are far greater challenges, and could linger a lot longer than the impact of tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，如果深入分析其历史业绩，关税或许并不是苹果目前面临的最大问题。其旗舰利润中心缺乏显著增长，以及在人工智能（AI）方面的持续挣扎，才是更大的挑战，并且可能会比关税的影响持续更久。</p>
</div><p>Here's why those are legitimate concerns for shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是这些问题为何对股东来说是合理的担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMTEvd29ycmllZC1pbnZlc3Rvci1sb29raW5nLWF0LWNvbXB1dGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817211%2Fworried-investor-looking-at-computer.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The quarter that was won't be again (at least not anytime soon)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>过去的季度不会再现（至少在短期内不会）</h2>
</div><p>For the three-month stretch ending in March, Apple turned $95.4 billion in revenue into earnings of $1.65 per share. Both were better than the year-ago comparisons of $90.8 billion and $1.53 (respectively), and both topped analysts' expectations of $94.6 billion and $1.62 per share. As usual, the iPhone accounted for roughly half of Apple's business, with sales of $46.8 billion. The company's services arm continues to shine as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至 3 月的三个月中，苹果实现了 954 亿美元的收入，转化为每股收益 1.65 美元。这两个数字均优于去年同期的 908 亿美元和 1.53 美元，并且都超出了分析师对 946 亿美元和每股 1.62 美元的预期。与往常一样，iPhone 大约占苹果业务的一半，销售额为 468 亿美元。公司的服务部门也继续表现出色。</p>
</div><p>What prompted the pullback, then? As noted above, worries about tariffs. They'll cost the company roughly $900 billion during fiscal Q3 alone, with no relief on the horizon. Although Apple can theoretically dial back its dependence on Chinese-made iPhones by ramping up production in other countries where tariffs aren't so steep, doing so isn't easy, quick, or cheap to set up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，是什么促使股价回落呢？如上所述，主要是对关税的担忧。仅在财年第三季度，关税就将使公司损失约 900 亿美元，且没有缓解的迹象。尽管苹果理论上可以通过在其他关税较低的国家增加生产来减少对中国制造 iPhone 的依赖，但这样做并不容易、快速或便宜。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, tariffs arguably aren't this company's top problem right now. There are two greater concerns that should be weighing on investors' minds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题是，关税并不是这家公司目前面临的最大问题。还有两个更大的担忧应该让投资者感到忧虑。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's iPhone business is actually quite stagnant</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的 iPhone 业务实际上相当停滞不前</h2>
</div><p>The first of these worries is iPhone-related.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些担忧中的第一个与 iPhone 相关。</p>
</div><p>While several members of the analyst community -- as well as many in the financial media -- touted the fact that Apple saw measurable growth in iPhone revenue last quarter, this growth was far from earth-shattering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管分析师界的几位成员以及许多金融媒体都宣称苹果在上个季度的 iPhone 收入实现了可观增长，但这种增长远非惊人。</p>
</div><p>Take a look at the chart below. As numbers from IDC tell us, unit sales of the iPhone improved 10% year over year, but that's a 10% improvement on a figure that fell by nearly as much in the comparable quarter a year earlier. In other words, the bar was set relatively low this time around. Meanwhile, actual iPhone revenue remains more or less in line with where it peaked in 2022, only growing on the order of 2% last quarter:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看看下面的图表。根据 IDC 的数据，iPhone 的单位销量同比增长了 10%，但这是在去年同期几乎下降了同样多的基础上实现的 10% 的增长。换句话说，这次的基准设定相对较低。同时，实际的 iPhone 收入与 2022 年的峰值基本持平，上个季度仅增长了约 2%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMTEvMDUwNTI1LWlwaG9uZS1yZXZlbnVlLXVuaXQtc2FsZXMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817211%2F050525-iphone-revenue-unit-sales.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data sources: Revenue data (in millions) from Apple. Unit data (in millions) from IDC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：苹果的收入数据（以百万计）。单位数据（以百万计）来自 IDC。</p>
</div><p>Making these anemic iPhone numbers even more troubling is the fact that many consumers -- at least allegedly -- rushed to purchase a new smartphone before tariffs took hold. Without this push, it's conceivable that last quarter's iPhone business might have actually fallen. And either way, overall demand remains stagnant ... at best.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使这些疲软的 iPhone 数字更加令人担忧的是，许多消费者（至少据说）在关税生效之前急于购买新智能手机。如果没有这种推动，去季度的 iPhone 业务可能实际上会下降。无论如何，整体需求仍然停滞不前……充其量。</p>
</div><p>It's a bigger-picture concern because the iPhone accounts for half of Apple's sales, and presumably, a comparable percentage of its profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个更大的问题，因为 iPhone 占苹果销售的一半，推测也占其利润的相应比例。</p>
</div><h2>Artificial intelligence remains a weak point</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能仍然是一个薄弱环节</h2>
</div><p>The other chief worry here, as noted, is Apple's progress (or lack thereof) on the artificial intelligence front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个主要担忧，如前所述，是苹果在人工智能领域的进展（或缺乏进展）。</p>
</div><p>Few would deny that this company was a bit late to the AI party. Although the early versions of its virtual assistant Siri certainly looked and performed similarly to more recently launched platforms like Google's ( <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s) Gemini, <strong>Microsoft</strong>'s Copilot, and ChatGPT, Apple didn't embrace this next generation of AI chatbots in earnest until last year. By then, though, its rivals already enjoyed a commanding share of this young business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几乎没有人会否认这家公司在人工智能领域稍显滞后。尽管其早期版本的虚拟助手 Siri 在外观和表现上与最近推出的平台如谷歌（<strong>Alphabet</strong>）的 Gemini、<strong>微软</strong> 的 Copilot 和 ChatGPT 相似，但苹果直到去年才真正开始重视这一代 AI 聊天机器人。然而，到那时，其竞争对手已经在这一新兴市场中占据了主导地位。</p>
</div><p>What's surprising -- and alarming -- is how little progress this company has made with even the most basic of AI tools in the meantime. The debut of Apple Intelligence in October, for instance, was un-Apple-like in that it wasn't even close to including all the features and capabilities the company ultimately intends for the technology to offer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>令人惊讶且令人担忧的是，在此期间，这家公司在最基本的 AI 工具方面几乎没有取得任何进展。例如，苹果智能助手在 10 月的首次亮相就显得不够苹果，甚至没有接近包含公司最终打算为该技术提供的所有功能和能力。</p>
</div><p>And Siri's proving particularly problematic, if the March removal of Apple's AI chief as head of Siri's ongoing development is any indication. Indeed, Tim Cook was forced to concede during the recent earnings call that the implementation of a new-and-improved Siri is &#34;just taking a bit longer than we thought.&#34; That wording sounds like CEO-speak intended to gloss over fairly serious developmental challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而 Siri 的表现尤其令人担忧，如果 3 月苹果的 AI 负责人被解除 Siri 持续开发的职务是一个迹象的话。实际上，蒂姆·库克在最近的财报电话会议上被迫承认，新的改进版 Siri 的实施 “只是比我们想象的要花费更长的时间。” 这种措辞听起来像是首席执行官为了掩盖相当严重的开发挑战而使用的说辞。</p>
</div><p>The kicker: Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai recently suggested his company and Apple are close to striking a deal that would allow Apple Intelligence users to choose Google's Gemini as their underlying AI model. Apple is usually isolationist, and such a decision confirms just how far behind it is in its AI research and development (R&amp;D) efforts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是：谷歌首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊最近暗示，他的公司与苹果接近达成一项协议，允许苹果智能助手用户选择谷歌的 Gemini 作为其基础 AI 模型。苹果通常是孤立主义的，这样的决定证实了它在 AI 研发（R&amp;D）方面的落后程度。</p>
</div><p>This is a worry for current and would-be Apple investors because AI is expected to be such an important growth market. Industry research outfit Market.Us believes the worldwide business of AI-powered virtual assistants is set to grow at an annualized pace of 31% through 2034 -- yet Apple is steering customers to its competitors on this front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对当前和潜在的苹果投资者来说是一个担忧，因为人工智能预计将是一个重要的增长市场。行业研究机构 Market.Us 认为，全球 AI 驱动的虚拟助手业务预计将在 2034 年前以 31% 的年均增速增长——然而，苹果在这一领域却在引导客户转向其竞争对手。</p>
</div><h2>Not your best bet anymore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不再是你最佳的投资选择</h2>
</div><p>Does this spell doom? Hardly. If nothing else, Apple remains the world's most profitable company. It can acquire whatever new revenue-bearing tech it needs, or use its reliable cash flow or the $133 billion worth of relatively liquid assets sitting on its balance sheet to repurchase its stock. Its higher-margin services arm is also still doing particularly well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否意味着末日来临？绝对不是。如果没有其他因素，苹果仍然是全球最盈利的公司。它可以收购任何需要的新收入技术，或者利用其可靠的现金流或账面上价值 1330 亿美元的相对流动资产回购股票。其高利润的服务部门也仍然表现良好。</p>
</div><p>Even so, services only make up a little more than one-fourth of the company's revenue, and less than half of its gross profits. Apple is still predominantly an iPhone-first company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便如此，服务收入仅占公司收入的四分之一多一点，且不到其毛利润的一半。苹果仍然主要是一家以 iPhone 为主的公司。</p>
</div><p>It would also be naive to ignore that Apple's sales of services and devices go hand in hand, with the latter largely driving the former. While iPhone owners can and do spend more and more on apps and subscriptions, there is a limit to how much they're willing to spend. We're getting closer to that limit every day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>忽视苹果的服务和设备销售是相辅相成的这一点也是天真的，后者在很大程度上推动了前者。虽然 iPhone 用户确实在应用和订阅上花费越来越多，但他们愿意花费的金额是有限的。我们每天都在接近这个限度。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line? Apple isn't necessarily a sell here. There's even a wobbly case for stepping into the stock while it's down more than 20% from its December peak, particularly if you think tariffs will ease rather than becoming a permanent problem. Apple's services business also remains impressive, even if it's not its flagship business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论是什么？苹果并不一定是一个需要出售的股票。在其股价比去年 12 月的高峰下跌超过 20% 时，甚至可以说有理由在此时介入，特别是如果你认为关税会缓解而不是成为永久性问题的话。尽管苹果的服务业务并不是其旗舰业务，但仍然令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>There's no denying, however, that Apple isn't the must-have investment many people were prioritizing just a couple of years ago. It's been giving up too much ground on the AI front to competitors equipped to keep their newly-won market share. Meanwhile, its iPhone business continues to move sideways, with no end in sight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，毫无疑问，苹果不再是许多人几年前所优先考虑的必备投资。它在人工智能领域向能够保持新获得市场份额的竞争对手让步太多。同时，其 iPhone 业务也在横盘整理，似乎没有尽头。</p>
</div><p>At this time, you can certainly find more promising prospects than Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个时候，你肯定能找到比苹果更有前景的投资机会。</p>
</div>

Sorry, but Tariffs Are the Least of Apple's Problems Right Now

- 苹果公司第二季度营收超预期，但因关税影响股价下跌。  
- 关税将使公司在第三季度损失约 9 亿美元，影响利润。  
- iPhone 销售增长乏力，人工智能进展缓慢，投资者需关注。

抱歉，关税是苹果当前问题中最不重要的一个