<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔于 5 月 7 日举行的新闻发布会基本符合市场预期，巧妙地传达了货币政策的沟通。尽管美联储更新的声明中包含了被视为略微鹰派的措辞，导致标准普尔 500 指数期货初步下跌至 5600 点，但市场迅速反弹，因为鲍威尔的语气被视为与之前的信息一致。期货最终反弹至 5637 点，几乎与指令发布前的水平相同，表明投资者并未感到意外。鲍威尔成功地向市场传达了美联储并不急于行动，重申政策 “处于良好状态”，中央银行可以耐心等待。然而，语气和重点的微妙变化，特别是关于通胀风险和经济不确定性的讨论，使市场对 6 月降息的预期进一步推迟。</p><p>美联储 5 月政策声明中最显著的变化集中在经济前景和风险评估上。尽管美联储维持经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张的观点，但新增了一项说明，指出净出口的波动扭曲了近期数据。这是对第一季度因预期关税而导致进口大幅提前的暗示，暂时压低了 GDP。鲍威尔强调，私人国内最终消费（PDFP）——一种排除政府、贸易和库存的核心需求更清晰的衡量标准——在第一季度以 3% 的速度增长，与 2024 年的趋势一致。</p><p>通胀的措辞保持不变，声明重申通胀仍然 “略微偏高”。然而，美联储对风险的表述更加严谨，指出经济前景的不确定性 “进一步增加”，同时失业率和通胀上升的风险也有所上升。这种双重风险的表述似乎反映了在动荡的宏观经济条件下，特别是在贸易政策方面的谨慎态度。</p><p>一项操作性变化是删除了关于资产负债表缩减的详细措辞，这在 3 月的声明中有所提及。新的声明简单地指出，美联储将继续减少其国债和抵押贷款支持证券的持有量，表明之前宣布的较慢的缩减计划现已生效。对缩减速度持不同意见的克里斯托弗·沃勒支持 5 月的决定，表明内部意见趋于一致。</p><p>在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔重申政策利率现在仅 “略微限制”——比去年秋季低 100 个基点——并且目前美联储处于观望的良好位置。这一具体措辞至关重要：通过暗示利率不再高度限制，鲍威尔间接支持了下一步更可能是降息而非加息的观点。</p><p>美联储主席还谈到了软数据与硬数据之间的差异。他承认，情绪指标和《褐皮书》显示出企业和消费者的谨慎增加，一些公司推迟了投资和招聘决策。然而，鲍威尔强调，这些担忧尚未在硬经济数据中显著体现。就业保持稳定，消费者支出持续，整体需求似乎具有韧性。他承认，如果软数据中的阴霾持续，最终可能会在经济结果中显现出来，但这一时刻尚未到来。</p><p>关于通胀，鲍威尔描述了 “潜在通胀状况” 相对稳定，住房和非住房服务的读数适中。然而，他承认仍有许多未知因素，特别是关于新关税和全球供应链中断可能带来的进一步价格压力。尽管如此，他明确表示美联储没有紧迫性，乐于监测数据的演变。</p><p><strong>CME 美联储基金期货 6 月降息预期：</strong></p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/03ed532816e187727d4f3b9386f35087?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1296" height="151" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/03ed532816e187727d4f3b9386f35087"/></figure><p>市场迅速解读鲍威尔的语气为中性。尽管美联储承认了更高的通胀风险，但鲍威尔对耐心和数据依赖的强调导致 6 月降息预期下降。CME 美联储观察工具显示，在新闻发布会后，6 月和 7 月降息的概率均有所下降。</p><p>鲍威尔讲话的一个关键主题是当前经济数据的复杂性。他花了大量时间讨论 PDFP 作为比 GDP 更准确的美国需求指标，因为 GDP 在第一季度因关税前进口激增而受到扭曲。鲍威尔暗示，第二季度可能会因净出口的反转而显示出异常强劲的贡献，进一步模糊增长信号。尽管存在这种噪音，鲍威尔表示美联储仍然关注消费和投资的持续趋势。</p><p><strong>7 月 CME 美联储基金期货降息预期：</strong></p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e04c9630ad36d7610b69a4f0209e3a39?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1298" height="172" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e04c9630ad36d7610b69a4f0209e3a39"/></figure><p>关于贸易，鲍威尔承认持续的关税谈判和潜在新措施带来的不确定性。尽管他没有对美中谈判的结果进行猜测，但他指出，4 月 2 日的初轮关税远比预测者预期的要严厉。鲍威尔强调，这些发展可能会实质性改变美联储的前景，但此时尚未到可以判断的时机。</p><p>鲍威尔还重申了美联储对财政政策的长期立场——这超出了他们的职责范围。虽然承认联邦债务路径不可持续，但他没有对税收延长或预算谈判的影响发表评论，只是表示美联储将财政状况纳入其经济模型中。</p><p>总之，鲍威尔传达了一个稳健、审慎的信息，强调美联储希望在持续的宏观经济交叉潮流中保持耐心。尽管声明在风险方面采取了稍微更为鹰派的语气，但鲍威尔反复坚持政策处于 “良好状态”，这表明收紧政策的门槛仍然很高。同时，考虑到通胀仍然高企和经济不确定性上升，放松政策的门槛也并不低。目前，美联储似乎满意于观察和等待——这一信息可能不会激励市场，但反映了政策制定者面临的经济模糊性。</p>

<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近的新闻发布会表明，货币政策将保持稳定，预计不会立即降息。尽管美联储的声明中包含了一些鹰派语言，但市场迅速反弹，反映了投资者的信心。鲍威尔强调了美联储的耐心，并指出经济前景的不确定性增加，特别是在通胀风险方面。他强调了私人国内最终消费作为核心需求指标的重要性，并承认当前经济数据的复杂性。总体而言，鲍威尔的语气暗示了一个谨慎但稳定的经济环境，没有迫切的立即行动的必要</p>

<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a press conference on May 7 that largely aligned with market expectations, skillfully threading the needle on monetary policy communication. While the Fed's updated statement included language viewed as marginally more hawkish—leading to an initial dip in S&amp;P 500 futures to the 5600 level—markets quickly rebounded as Powell's tone was seen as consistent with prior messaging. The futures eventually bounced back to 5637, nearly the same level as before the directive was released, suggesting investors saw little in the way of surprise. Powell succeeded in reassuring markets that the Fed is in no rush, reiterating that policy remains &#34;in a good place&#34; and that the central bank can afford to be patient. However, subtle shifts in tone and emphasis, particularly regarding inflation risks and economic uncertainty, pushed market expectations for a June rate cut further into the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔于 5 月 7 日举行的新闻发布会基本符合市场预期，巧妙地传达了货币政策的沟通。尽管美联储更新的声明中包含了被视为略微鹰派的措辞，导致标准普尔 500 指数期货初步下跌至 5600 点，但市场迅速反弹，因为鲍威尔的语气被视为与之前的信息一致。期货最终反弹至 5637 点，几乎与指令发布前的水平相同，表明投资者并未感到意外。鲍威尔成功地向市场传达了美联储并不急于行动，重申政策 “处于良好状态”，中央银行可以耐心等待。然而，语气和重点的微妙变化，特别是关于通胀风险和经济不确定性的讨论，使市场对 6 月降息的预期进一步推迟。</p>
</div><p>The most notable changes in the Fed's May policy statement were focused on the economic outlook and risk assessment. While the Fed maintained that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, it added a new qualifier noting that swings in net exports have distorted recent data. This was a nod to the sharp pull-forward in imports in Q1 ahead of anticipated tariffs, which temporarily depressed GDP. Powell emphasized that Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP)—a cleaner measure of core demand excluding government, trade, and inventories—grew at a 3% pace in Q1, in line with 2024 trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储 5 月政策声明中最显著的变化集中在经济前景和风险评估上。尽管美联储维持经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张的观点，但新增了一项说明，指出净出口的波动扭曲了近期数据。这是对第一季度因预期关税而导致进口大幅提前的暗示，暂时压低了 GDP。鲍威尔强调，私人国内最终消费（PDFP）——一种排除政府、贸易和库存的核心需求更清晰的衡量标准——在第一季度以 3% 的速度增长，与 2024 年的趋势一致。</p>
</div><p>Inflation language remained unchanged, with the statement reiterating that inflation remains &#34;somewhat elevated&#34;. However, the Fed sharpened its risk language, stating that uncertainty around the economic outlook has &#34;increased further&#34; and that the risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen. This dual-sided risk language appeared to reflect increased caution amid volatile macroeconomic conditions, particularly around trade policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀的措辞保持不变，声明重申通胀仍然 “略微偏高”。然而，美联储对风险的表述更加严谨，指出经济前景的不确定性 “进一步增加”，同时失业率和通胀上升的风险也有所上升。这种双重风险的表述似乎反映了在动荡的宏观经济条件下，特别是在贸易政策方面的谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>One operational change was the removal of detailed language on balance sheet tapering, which had been present in the March statement. The new statement simply states that the Fed will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and MBS, signaling that the slower runoff plan announced earlier is now in effect. Christopher Waller, who dissented in March over tapering pace, supported the May decision, suggesting increased internal alignment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一项操作性变化是删除了关于资产负债表缩减的详细措辞，这在 3 月的声明中有所提及。新的声明简单地指出，美联储将继续减少其国债和抵押贷款支持证券的持有量，表明之前宣布的较慢的缩减计划现已生效。对缩减速度持不同意见的克里斯托弗·沃勒支持 5 月的决定，表明内部意见趋于一致。</p>
</div><p>In his press conference, Powell reiterated that the policy rate is now only &#34;somewhat restrictive&#34;—100 basis points less so than last fall—and is currently well positioned for the Fed to wait and see. This specific language was key: by suggesting that rates are no longer highly restrictive, Powell indirectly supported the idea that the next move is more likely to be a cut, not a hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔重申政策利率现在仅 “略微限制”——比去年秋季低 100 个基点——并且目前美联储处于观望的良好位置。这一具体措辞至关重要：通过暗示利率不再高度限制，鲍威尔间接支持了下一步更可能是降息而非加息的观点。</p>
</div><p>The Fed Chair also addressed the divergence between soft and hard data. He acknowledged that sentiment indicators and the Beige Book show increased business and consumer caution, with some firms delaying investment and hiring decisions. However, Powell stressed that these concerns have yet to show up meaningfully in the hard economic data. Employment remains stable, consumer spending continues, and overall demand appears resilient. He admitted that if the gloom in soft data persists, it could eventually manifest in weaker economic outcomes—but that moment hasn’t arrived yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席还谈到了软数据与硬数据之间的差异。他承认，情绪指标和《褐皮书》显示出企业和消费者的谨慎增加，一些公司推迟了投资和招聘决策。然而，鲍威尔强调，这些担忧尚未在硬经济数据中显著体现。就业保持稳定，消费者支出持续，整体需求似乎具有韧性。他承认，如果软数据中的阴霾持续，最终可能会在经济结果中显现出来，但这一时刻尚未到来。</p>
</div><p>On inflation, Powell described the &#34;underlying inflation picture&#34; as relatively stable, with modest readings in both housing and non-housing services. However, he admitted that there are still many unknowns, particularly around the potential for further price pressure from renewed tariffs and global supply chain disruptions. That said, he made clear the Fed sees no urgency to act and is comfortable monitoring the data as it evolves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于通胀，鲍威尔描述了 “潜在通胀状况” 相对稳定，住房和非住房服务的读数适中。然而，他承认仍有许多未知因素，特别是关于新关税和全球供应链中断可能带来的进一步价格压力。尽管如此，他明确表示美联储没有紧迫性，乐于监测数据的演变。</p>
</div><p><strong>CME Fed Fund Futures June Rate Cut Expectations:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>CME 美联储基金期货 6 月降息预期：</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/e04065a6-afc8-4773-948a-605021923ace_image_adbefbe41746646597604.png" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/e04065a6-afc8-4773-948a-605021923ace_image_adbefbe41746646597604.png"/></p>
<p>Markets quickly interpreted Powell’s tone as neutral. Though the Fed acknowledged higher inflation risks, Powell’s emphasis on patience and data dependence led to a decrease in rate cut expectations for June. The CME FedWatch Tool showed declining odds for both June and July cuts immediately following the press conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场迅速解读鲍威尔的语气为中性。尽管美联储承认了更高的通胀风险，但鲍威尔对耐心和数据依赖的强调导致 6 月降息预期下降。CME 美联储观察工具显示，在新闻发布会后，6 月和 7 月降息的概率均有所下降。</p>
</div><p>A key theme in Powell's remarks was the complexity of current economic readings. He spent significant time discussing PDFP as a more accurate indicator of U.S. demand than GDP, which was distorted in Q1 by the surge in pre-tariff imports. Powell suggested that Q2 might show an unusually strong contribution from net exports as that trend reverses, further muddling the growth signal. Despite this noise, Powell said the Fed remains focused on sustained trends in consumption and investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔讲话的一个关键主题是当前经济数据的复杂性。他花了大量时间讨论 PDFP 作为比 GDP 更准确的美国需求指标，因为 GDP 在第一季度因关税前进口激增而受到扭曲。鲍威尔暗示，第二季度可能会因净出口的反转而显示出异常强劲的贡献，进一步模糊增长信号。尽管存在这种噪音，鲍威尔表示美联储仍然关注消费和投资的持续趋势。</p>
</div><p><strong>July CME Fed Fund Futures Rate Cut Expectations:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>7 月 CME 美联储基金期货降息预期：</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/692024ef-15b4-4ab1-9515-8378b021a380_image_1cff1c6a1746646688161.png" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/692024ef-15b4-4ab1-9515-8378b021a380_image_1cff1c6a1746646688161.png"/></p>
<p>On trade, Powell acknowledged the uncertainty posed by ongoing tariff negotiations and potential new measures. While he refrained from speculating on the outcome of U.S.-China talks, he noted the initial tariff round on April 2 was far more severe than forecasters had expected. Powell emphasized that these developments could materially alter the Fed’s outlook, but at this point it is simply too soon to tell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于贸易，鲍威尔承认持续的关税谈判和潜在新措施带来的不确定性。尽管他没有对美中谈判的结果进行猜测，但他指出，4 月 2 日的初轮关税远比预测者预期的要严厉。鲍威尔强调，这些发展可能会实质性改变美联储的前景，但此时尚未到可以判断的时机。</p>
</div><p>Powell also reiterated the Fed’s longstanding position on fiscal policy—that it’s outside their mandate. While acknowledging that the federal debt path is unsustainable, he refrained from commenting on the implications of tax extensions or budget negotiations, other than to say the Fed incorporates fiscal conditions into its economic models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔还重申了美联储对财政政策的长期立场——这超出了他们的职责范围。虽然承认联邦债务路径不可持续，但他没有对税收延长或预算谈判的影响发表评论，只是表示美联储将财政状况纳入其经济模型中。</p>
</div><p>In sum, Powell delivered a steady, measured message that reinforced the Fed's desire to remain patient amid ongoing macroeconomic crosscurrents. While the statement adopted a slightly more hawkish tone on risk, Powell’s repeated insistence that policy is in a &#34;good place&#34; suggested the bar for tightening remains high. At the same time, with inflation still elevated and economic uncertainty rising, the bar for easing isn’t low either. As of now, the Fed appears content to watch and wait—a message that may not excite markets but reflects the economic ambiguity facing policymakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，鲍威尔传达了一个稳健、审慎的信息，强调美联储希望在持续的宏观经济交叉潮流中保持耐心。尽管声明在风险方面采取了稍微更为鹰派的语气，但鲍威尔反复坚持政策处于 “良好状态”，这表明收紧政策的门槛仍然很高。同时，考虑到通胀仍然高企和经济不确定性上升，放松政策的门槛也并不低。目前，美联储似乎满意于观察和等待——这一信息可能不会激励市场，但反映了政策制定者面临的经济模糊性。</p>
</div>

Powell Plays It Cool: Rates Steady, Markets Whipsaw, Patience Prevails

- 美联储主席鲍威尔在 5 月 7 日的新闻发布会上重申政策稳定。  
- 尽管声明略显鹰派，市场反应迅速回升，显示投资者预期未变。  
- 鲍威尔强调经济不急于行动，关注数据变化与通胀风险。

鲍威尔保持冷静：利率维持不变，市场剧烈波动，耐心占据上风