<p>当 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -1.14%）最近公布其 2023 财年第二季度业绩时，强调了公司所看到的积极因素和面临的挑战。截至目前，苹果的股价今年下跌约 20%，已失去全球最大公司的地位，转而被 <strong>微软</strong> 取代。</p>
<p>让我们来看看苹果的积极因素是否超过风险，或者投资者是否应该转向更好的投资机会。</p>
<h2><strong>法律和关税风险</strong></h2>
<p>虽然苹果的核心业务是硬件，但其高利润的服务部门在过去几年中一直是最大的增长驱动力，因为 iPhone 的销售总体上趋于平稳。服务部门通过多种方式产生收入，包括其应用商店、云存储、Apple TV、Apple Pay 等订阅服务，以及与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 旗下的谷歌在搜索方面的收入分成协议。</p>
<p>服务收入再次引领苹果，增长 12% 至 249.7 亿美元，但未能达到 <strong>LSEG</strong> 汇编的分析师共识的 252.8 亿美元。同时，关于法律环境如何影响苹果的服务业务的担忧日益加剧。</p>
<p>在苹果的财报电话会议上，一位分析师提到了 Epic Games 最近对公司的禁令，以及谷歌反垄断诉讼的潜在影响。关于 Epic 案件，一名法官裁定苹果故意违反法院裁决，并继续干扰竞争。该公司可能面临刑事藐视法庭的指控。</p>
<p>然而，最大的悬念是与谷歌的独家搜索协议会发生什么。苹果从该协议中每年获得超过 200 亿美元的收入，这完全是利润。这占其运营收入的 15% 以上。此案对苹果的影响重大，今年早些时候苹果在补救阶段被拒绝参与有限角色。</p>
<p>与此同时，关税问题成为焦点。公司表示，关税对其 3 月份季度的业绩影响有限。然而，苹果估计如果没有进一步变化，关税将在 6 月份季度增加其成本 9 亿美元。不过，它补充说，某些独特因素使 6 月份季度受益。据报道，消费者在 4 月初赶往苹果商店购买 iPhone 和其他苹果产品，以避开关税，公司也提前囤积了库存。因此，如果一切保持不变，6 月份季度之后的影响可能会更糟。</p>
<p>然而，苹果指出，在 6 月份季度，绝大多数在美国销售的 iPhone 将标注印度为原产国，而其余产品大多数将来自越南。它还指出，其他国家销售的产品主要来源于中国。</p>
<p>与此同时，中国仍然是苹果的一个弱点，销售额下降了 2%。不过，这比最近几个季度有所改善，包括 12 月份季度时中国销售下降了 11%。</p>
<p>总体而言，苹果交出了一份不错的季度业绩。收入增长 5% 至 954 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）增长 8% 至 1.65 美元。这超过了分析师对每股收益 1.60 美元和销售额 945.8 亿美元的预期，数据由 <strong>LSEG</strong> 汇编。</p>
<p>产品部门销售增长近 3%，主要受 iPad 和 Mac 销售强劲推动。iPad 销售增长 15% 至 64 亿美元，得益于新款 iPad Air 的销售。Mac 销售同比增长 7% 至 79 亿美元，受益于苹果笔记本电脑系列的新更新。可穿戴设备销售下降 5% 至 75 亿美元，因去年同期推出的 Apple Vision Pro 和 Watch Ultra 2 造成了较为严峻的对比。</p>
<p>至关重要的 iPhone 销售 meanwhile，增长 2% 至 468 亿美元。公司表示，iPhone 的升级用户同比增长了两位数。它补充说，iPhone 是美国、城市中国、英国、德国、澳大利亚和日本的畅销机型。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2><strong>风险与回报</strong></h2>
<p>苹果继续交出稳健的整体业绩，主要得益于其高利润的服务部门。同时，iPhone 和其他设备的销售保持稳定。然而，公司确实面临一些日益增加的风险。</p>
<p>虽然关税在 6 月份季度的影响适中，但其影响可能在此后加剧。然而，公司已将制造转移出中国，并将寻求更多从美国采购芯片。它还计划在未来四年内在美国投资 5000 亿美元，包括在德克萨斯州开设新的先进服务器制造设施。</p>
<p>更大的风险是其盈利丰厚的谷歌搜索收入分成协议会发生什么。虽然所有这些收入不太可能完全消失，但如果其中一部分确实消失，将对公司的收益造成重大打击。</p>
<p>根据 2025 财年分析师的预估，该股票的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为 28。对于一家收入和每股收益增长温和的公司而言，这一倍数相对较高。</p>
<p>再加上苹果可能会看到其运营收入的显著部分消失的风险，我认为即使在今年回调之后，风险也超过了回报。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果最近的 2023 财年第二季度财报显示，收入增长 5%，达到 954 亿美元，每股收益为 1.65 美元，超出分析师预期。然而，股票今年下跌 20%，失去了全球最大公司的称号，转而被微软取代。主要风险包括影响其服务部门的法律挑战和潜在的关税影响，这可能导致成本增加 9 亿美元。尽管面临这些挑战，苹果在未来四年内将在美国投资 5000 亿美元，并将制造转移出中国，表明其在当前不确定性中仍然专注于长期增长</p>

<p>When <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.14%) recently reported its fiscal second-quarter results, it highlighted both the positives the company is seeing and the challenges it is facing. With the stock down around 20% this year, as of this writing, Apple has lost its mantle as the world's largest company to rival <strong>Microsoft</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -1.14%）最近公布其 2023 财年第二季度业绩时，强调了公司所看到的积极因素和面临的挑战。截至目前，苹果的股价今年下跌约 20%，已失去全球最大公司的地位，转而被 <strong>微软</strong> 取代。</p>
</div><p>Let's examine if the positives for Apple outweigh the risks, or if investors should move on to better ideas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来看看苹果的积极因素是否超过风险，或者投资者是否应该转向更好的投资机会。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Legal and tariff risks</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>法律和关税风险</strong></h2>
</div><p>While at its core Apple is a hardware company, it is the company's high-margin services segment that has been its biggest growth driver over the past few years, as iPhone sales have generally flattened out over time. The services segment generates revenue in a variety of ways, including through its App Store, cloud storage, subscriptions like Apple TV, Apple Pay, and its revenue-share agreement with <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google for search.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然苹果的核心业务是硬件，但其高利润的服务部门在过去几年中一直是最大的增长驱动力，因为 iPhone 的销售总体上趋于平稳。服务部门通过多种方式产生收入，包括其应用商店、云存储、Apple TV、Apple Pay 等订阅服务，以及与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 旗下的谷歌在搜索方面的收入分成协议。</p>
</div><p>Services revenue once again led the way for Apple, rising 12% to $24.97 billion, but that fell short of the $25.28 billion analyst consensus, as compiled by <strong>LSEG</strong>. Meanwhile, there are mounting concerns about how the legal landscape could impact Apple's services business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务收入再次引领苹果，增长 12% 至 249.7 亿美元，但未能达到 <strong>LSEG</strong> 汇编的分析师共识的 252.8 亿美元。同时，关于法律环境如何影响苹果的服务业务的担忧日益加剧。</p>
</div><p>On Apple's earnings call, an analyst brought up the recent injunction Epic Games won against the company, as well as the potential impact of Google's antitrust lawsuit. Regarding the Epic case, a judge ruled that Apple had willfully violated a court ruling and continued to interfere with competition. The company could face criminal contempt charges for its actions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在苹果的财报电话会议上，一位分析师提到了 Epic Games 最近对公司的禁令，以及谷歌反垄断诉讼的潜在影响。关于 Epic 案件，一名法官裁定苹果故意违反法院裁决，并继续干扰竞争。该公司可能面临刑事藐视法庭的指控。</p>
</div><p>The biggest overhang, however, is what happens concerning its exclusive search deal with Google. Apple is generating more than $20 billion a year in revenue from the deal, which is pure profit. That represents more than 15% of its operating income. The stakes in the case are high for Apple, and it was denied earlier this year from taking a limited role in the remedies phase of the proceedings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最大的悬念是与谷歌的独家搜索协议会发生什么。苹果从该协议中每年获得超过 200 亿美元的收入，这完全是利润。这占其运营收入的 15% 以上。此案对苹果的影响重大，今年早些时候苹果在补救阶段被拒绝参与有限角色。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs, meanwhile, were front and center. The company said tariffs had a limited impact on its results for its March quarter. However, Apple estimated that if there were no further changes that tariffs would increase its costs by $900 million in the June quarter. However, it added that certain unique factors benefited the June quarter. It has been reported that consumers were rushing to Apple stores to buy iPhones and other Apple products in early April ahead of the tariffs and that the company had been stockpiling inventory ahead of time. As such, the impact after the June quarter would likely be worse if everything remains the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，关税问题成为焦点。公司表示，关税对其 3 月份季度的业绩影响有限。然而，苹果估计如果没有进一步变化，关税将在 6 月份季度增加其成本 9 亿美元。不过，它补充说，某些独特因素使 6 月份季度受益。据报道，消费者在 4 月初赶往苹果商店购买 iPhone 和其他苹果产品，以避开关税，公司也提前囤积了库存。因此，如果一切保持不变，6 月份季度之后的影响可能会更糟。</p>
</div><p>However, Apple noted that for the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. in the June quarter India will be listed as their country of origin, while for the rest of its products, most will come from Vietnam. It noted that for products sold in other countries that their main source of origin will be China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，苹果指出，在 6 月份季度，绝大多数在美国销售的 iPhone 将标注印度为原产国，而其余产品大多数将来自越南。它还指出，其他国家销售的产品主要来源于中国。</p>
</div><p>China, meanwhile, continues to be an area of weakness for Apple, with sales in the country down 2%. However, that was an improvement from recent quarters, including the December quarter when sales fell 11% in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，中国仍然是苹果的一个弱点，销售额下降了 2%。不过，这比最近几个季度有所改善，包括 12 月份季度时中国销售下降了 11%。</p>
</div><p>Overall, though, Apple turned in a solid quarter. Revenue rose by 5% to $95.4 billion, while its earnings per share (EPS) climbed 8% to $1.65. That topped analyst expectations for EPS of $1.60 on sales of $94.58 billion, as compiled by LSEG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，苹果交出了一份不错的季度业绩。收入增长 5% 至 954 亿美元，每股收益（EPS）增长 8% 至 1.65 美元。这超过了分析师对每股收益 1.60 美元和销售额 945.8 亿美元的预期，数据由 <strong>LSEG</strong> 汇编。</p>
</div><p>Product segment sales rose nearly 3%, driven by strong iPad and Mac sales. iPad sales climbed 15% to $6.4 billion, powered by sales of the new iPad Air. Mac sales increased 7% year over year to $7.9 billion, helped by new updates to Apple's laptop lineup. Wearable sales fell by 5% to $7.5 billion, as it faced a tough comparison to a year ago due to the launch of the Apple Vision Pro in the year-ago quarter as well as the Watch Ultra 2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>产品部门销售增长近 3%，主要受 iPad 和 Mac 销售强劲推动。iPad 销售增长 15% 至 64 亿美元，得益于新款 iPad Air 的销售。Mac 销售同比增长 7% 至 79 亿美元，受益于苹果笔记本电脑系列的新更新。可穿戴设备销售下降 5% 至 75 亿美元，因去年同期推出的 Apple Vision Pro 和 Watch Ultra 2 造成了较为严峻的对比。</p>
</div><p>All-important iPhone sales, meanwhile, rose 2% to $46.8 billion. The company said that iPhone upgraders grew double-digits year over year. It added that the iPhone was a top-selling model in the U.S., urban China, the U.K., Germany, Australia, and Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至关重要的 iPhone 销售 meanwhile，增长 2% 至 468 亿美元。公司表示，iPhone 的升级用户同比增长了两位数。它补充说，iPhone 是美国、城市中国、英国、德国、澳大利亚和日本的畅销机型。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyMDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817201%2Fgettyimages-1373109638.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Risk vs. reward</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>风险与回报</strong></h2>
</div><p>Apple continues to put up solid overall results, led by its high-margin services segment. Meanwhile, iPhone and other device sales remain steady. However, the company does face some increasing risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果继续交出稳健的整体业绩，主要得益于其高利润的服务部门。同时，iPhone 和其他设备的销售保持稳定。然而，公司确实面临一些日益增加的风险。</p>
</div><p>While tariffs will have a moderate impact in the June quarter, their effect could intensify thereafter. However, the company has moved manufacturing away from China and will look to source more chips from the U.S. It also plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years in the U.S., including opening a new advanced server manufacturing facility in Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然关税在 6 月份季度的影响适中，但其影响可能在此后加剧。然而，公司已将制造转移出中国，并将寻求更多从美国采购芯片。它还计划在未来四年内在美国投资 5000 亿美元，包括在德克萨斯州开设新的先进服务器制造设施。</p>
</div><p>The bigger risk is what happens to its lucrative Google-search revenue-sharing agreement. While all of this revenue is likely not going to go away, if a meaningful portion does, it will be a significant blow to the company's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更大的风险是其盈利丰厚的谷歌搜索收入分成协议会发生什么。虽然所有这些收入不太可能完全消失，但如果其中一部分确实消失，将对公司的收益造成重大打击。</p>
</div><p>The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 28 based on fiscal 2025 analyst estimates. That multiple is relatively high for a company with modest revenue and EPS growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 2025 财年分析师的预估，该股票的前瞻市盈率（P/E）约为 28。对于一家收入和每股收益增长温和的公司而言，这一倍数相对较高。</p>
</div><p>Throw in the risk that Apple could see a significant portion of its operating income disappear, and I think the risks outweigh the reward with the stock, even after its pullback this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上苹果可能会看到其运营收入的显著部分消失的风险，我认为即使在今年回调之后，风险也超过了回报。</p>
</div>

Apple Stock: Do the Risks Outweigh the Reward?

- 苹果公司第二季度营收增长 5%，达 95.4 亿美元，超出分析师预期。  
- 服务部门收入增长 12%，但未达分析师共识。  
- 法律风险和关税可能对未来业绩产生负面影响。  

苹果股票：风险是否大于回报？