<p>到目前为止，2025 年的股市真是一个有趣的年份。在某个时刻，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 曾下跌至 15%，而 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 则暴跌 21%。</p>
<p>尽管中国人工智能初创公司 DeepSeek 的消息和混合的经济指标对今年的资本市场产生了一些影响，但我认为造成波动的最大因素（迄今为止！）是特朗普政府的新关税政策。尽管标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克已经从低点恢复，但这两个指数在今年仍然呈现负回报，其中一些最大的滞后者是大型科技股。</p>
<p>在我写这篇文章时，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 2.95%）在 2025 年已经损失了近 1 万亿美元的市值。确实，这样的抛售表明投资者对曾经炙手可热的半导体明星失去了信心。随着其财年的第一季度财报定于 5 月 28 日发布，现在是买入英伟达股票的好时机吗？</p>
<p>继续阅读，了解历史在本月晚些时候公司发布第一季度报告后会发生什么。</p>
<h2>历史表明 5 月 28 日后英伟达股票会发生什么？</h2>
<p>下图展示了英伟达过去三年的股价走势。紫色圆圈中间的字母&#34;E&#34;表示财报发布。过去几年的大部分时间里，英伟达的股票在财报发布后立即上涨。从高层次来看，这表明英伟达的股票可能会继续其获胜的势头。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>不幸的是，在假设英伟达股票会再次上涨之前，有一个主要的细节需要指出。英伟达在财报发布后的显著例外发生在 2 月份，当时公司发布了 2024 财年第四季度和全年财务结果。自 2 月 26 日公司发布财报以来，截至目前，股价已下跌了 13%。</p>
<h2>目前影响英伟达股票的因素很多</h2>
<p>尽管自公司上次发布财报以来，英伟达股票的急剧下跌可能有些令人震惊，但有一些重要的细节需要讨论。</p>
<p>财报本身并没有问题。2 月份的主要事件是英伟达的新 Blackwell GPU 架构。在第四季度，Blackwell 的收入达到了 110 亿美元，超出了管理层的内部预期。</p>
<p>更好的是，英伟达的管理层表示，随着 Blackwell 的逐步扩大，公司在今年的毛利率将会改善。此外，管理层还宣传了一系列后续 GPU 架构，包括 Blackwell Ultra 和 Rubin，我相信这将有助于英伟达在未来几年保持强劲的增长前景。</p>
<p>在如此多的好消息围绕英伟达的实际业务时，为什么股票已经出售了几个月呢？正如我上面提到的，关税的不确定性加上对中国市场的新出口管制（这是英伟达的重要收入来源）让投资者对公司的增长感到担忧。虽然我理解这些担忧，但我认为它们被夸大了。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxOTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NTY1ODk4Mi05LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxOTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NTY1ODk4Mi05LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>投资者在第一季度电话会议中应该关注什么？</h2>
<p>作为投资者，我将密切关注推动 AI 基础设施的长期趋势如何影响公司相对于中国的短期阻力和关税环境的长期前景。</p>
<p>在过去几周，投资者已经窥见了其他领先的 AI 企业以及它们如何应对持续的关税驱动的动荡。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 都已发布 2025 年第一季度的财报。这些公司共同的一个特点是它们对 AI 基础设施的集体关注。这些公司计划在今年在数据中心建设上花费数千亿美元。</p>
<p>在我看来，如果关税是一个长期关注或对业务至关重要的问题，那么大型科技公司现在就不会在其 AI 路线图上加倍下注。鉴于所有这些公司都是英伟达的客户，我认为这家芯片制造商仍处于强势地位，并将消除投资者对长期增长的任何担忧。因此，我认为英伟达的股票可能会超出预期，并再次吸引增长型投资者。</p>
<p>我认为英伟达现在是一个很好的买入机会，适合那些打算长期持有股票的增长型投资者。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票在 2025 年经历了显著的波动，因对新关税政策和出口管制影响其增长的担忧，市值损失近 1 万亿美元。尽管预计在 5 月 28 日发布强劲的财报，但历史趋势表明，英伟达的股票通常在财报发布后会上涨。然而，最近的表现则喜忧参半，在上一次财报发布后出现了显著下跌。投资者应关注公司在人工智能基础设施方面的长期前景，因为主要科技公司继续在这一领域进行大量投资，这表明英伟达有潜在的复苏和增长机会</p>

<p>It's been a really interesting year in the stock market so far in 2025. At one point, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> had dropped as low as 15% while the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> cratered by 21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，2025 年的股市真是一个有趣的年份。在某个时刻，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 曾下跌至 15%，而 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 则暴跌 21%。</p>
</div><p>While news of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) start-up DeepSeek and mixed economic indicators have made some impacts on the capital markets this year, I think the biggest contributors to the volatility (by far!) are the new tariff policies from the Trump administration. Although the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq have recovered from their low points, both indexes still feature negative returns on the year -- with some of the biggest laggards being megacap technology stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管中国人工智能初创公司 DeepSeek 的消息和混合的经济指标对今年的资本市场产生了一些影响，但我认为造成波动的最大因素（迄今为止！）是特朗普政府的新关税政策。尽管标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克已经从低点恢复，但这两个指数在今年仍然呈现负回报，其中一些最大的滞后者是大型科技股。</p>
</div><p>As I write this, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.95%) has lost nearly $1 trillion in market value so far in 2025. Indeed, such a sell-off would suggest that investors have soured on the formerly red-hot semiconductor darling. With its fiscal first-quarter earnings report scheduled for May 28, is now a good time to buy the dip in Nvidia stock?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我写这篇文章时，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 2.95%）在 2025 年已经损失了近 1 万亿美元的市值。确实，这样的抛售表明投资者对曾经炙手可热的半导体明星失去了信心。随着其财年的第一季度财报定于 5 月 28 日发布，现在是买入英伟达股票的好时机吗？</p>
</div><p>Read on to find out what history says should happen after the company publishes its first-quarter report later this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>继续阅读，了解历史在本月晚些时候公司发布第一季度报告后会发生什么。</p>
</div><h2>What does history suggest will happen to Nvidia stock after May 28?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史表明 5 月 28 日后英伟达股票会发生什么？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates Nvidia's share price movement over the last three years. The purple circles with the letter &#34;E&#34; in the center indicate earnings reports. For the majority of the last few years, Nvidia stock has climbed immediately following an earnings report. At a high level, this would suggest that Nvidia stock could be positioned to continue its winning streak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图展示了英伟达过去三年的股价走势。紫色圆圈中间的字母&#34;E&#34;表示财报发布。过去几年的大部分时间里，英伟达的股票在财报发布后立即上涨。从高层次来看，这表明英伟达的股票可能会继续其获胜的势头。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/918f2194547771632e0eec14e4f85a47.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, there's one major nuance to call out before assuming Nvidia stock will rise once again. The most notable exception to Nvidia's post-earnings jolts occurred back in February when the company reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full 2024 year. Since the company reported earnings on Feb. 26, shares have dropped by 13% as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，在假设英伟达股票会再次上涨之前，有一个主要的细节需要指出。英伟达在财报发布后的显著例外发生在 2 月份，当时公司发布了 2024 财年第四季度和全年财务结果。自 2 月 26 日公司发布财报以来，截至目前，股价已下跌了 13%。</p>
</div><h2>There are a lot of factors at play influencing Nvidia stock right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>目前影响英伟达股票的因素很多</h2>
</div><p>Although the precipitous drop-off in Nvidia stock since the company last reported earnings might be a little jarring, there are some important details to discuss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管自公司上次发布财报以来，英伟达股票的急剧下跌可能有些令人震惊，但有一些重要的细节需要讨论。</p>
</div><p>The earnings report itself was anything but a problem. The main event back in February was Nvidia's new Blackwell GPU architecture. During the fourth quarter, Blackwell outperformed management's internal estimates by bringing in $11 billion in revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财报本身并没有问题。2 月份的主要事件是英伟达的新 Blackwell GPU 架构。在第四季度，Blackwell 的收入达到了 110 亿美元，超出了管理层的内部预期。</p>
</div><p>What's even better is that Nvidia's management said it believes the company's gross margin will improve throughout the year as the Blackwell ramp-up continues to scale. Moreover, management touted a line of successor GPU architectures including Blackwell Ultra and Rubin, which I'm confident should help Nvidia maintain robust growth prospects over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的是，英伟达的管理层表示，随着 Blackwell 的逐步扩大，公司在今年的毛利率将会改善。此外，管理层还宣传了一系列后续 GPU 架构，包括 Blackwell Ultra 和 Rubin，我相信这将有助于英伟达在未来几年保持强劲的增长前景。</p>
</div><p>With so much good news surrounding Nvidia's actual business, why has the stock been selling off for months now? As I alluded to above, uncertainty around tariffs combined with new export controls around the Chinese market (an important source of revenue for Nvidia) have investors worried about the company's growth. While I understand these concerns, I think they are overblown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在如此多的好消息围绕英伟达的实际业务时，为什么股票已经出售了几个月呢？正如我上面提到的，关税的不确定性加上对中国市场的新出口管制（这是英伟达的重要收入来源）让投资者对公司的增长感到担忧。虽然我理解这些担忧，但我认为它们被夸大了。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxOTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NTY1ODk4Mi05LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817198%2Fgettyimages-1345658982-9.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What should investors look for during the Q1 call?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者在第一季度电话会议中应该关注什么？</h2>
</div><p>As an investor, I will be listening closely to how the secular trends fueling AI infrastructure are impacting the company's long-run prospects relative to near-term headwinds in China and the tariff environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为投资者，我将密切关注推动 AI 基础设施的长期趋势如何影响公司相对于中国的短期阻力和关税环境的长期前景。</p>
</div><p>Over the last couple of weeks, investors have gotten a glimpse of other leading AI businesses and how they are navigating the ongoing tariff-driven turbulence. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> have all reported earnings for the first calendar quarter of 2025. One thing stitching these companies together is their collective focus on AI infrastructure. On a combined basis, these companies are planning on spending hundreds of billions of dollars this year on data center buildouts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几周，投资者已经窥见了其他领先的 AI 企业以及它们如何应对持续的关税驱动的动荡。<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 都已发布 2025 年第一季度的财报。这些公司共同的一个特点是它们对 AI 基础设施的集体关注。这些公司计划在今年在数据中心建设上花费数千亿美元。</p>
</div><p>To me, if tariffs were a longer-term concern or mission-critical issue for business then big tech companies would not be doubling down on their AI roadmaps right now. Given that all of these companies are Nvidia customers, I think the chipmaker remains in a position of strength and will extinguish any investor fears about long-term growth. As a result, I think Nvidia stock could beat expectations and begin to attract growth investors once again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，如果关税是一个长期关注或对业务至关重要的问题，那么大型科技公司现在就不会在其 AI 路线图上加倍下注。鉴于所有这些公司都是英伟达的客户，我认为这家芯片制造商仍处于强势地位，并将消除投资者对长期增长的任何担忧。因此，我认为英伟达的股票可能会超出预期，并再次吸引增长型投资者。</p>
</div><p>I see Nvidia as a good buying opportunity right now for growth investors who intend to hold the stock for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为英伟达现在是一个很好的买入机会，适合那些打算长期持有股票的增长型投资者。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before May 28? Here's What History Says.

- 2025 年股市波动，S&P 500 和纳斯达克分别下跌 15% 和 21%。  
- Nvidia 股价因关税政策和中国市场不确定性下跌，市值损失近$1 万亿。  
- 投资者关注 Nvidia 财报，预计长期增长前景仍然强劲。  

你是否应该在 5 月 28 日之前购买英伟达的股票？历史经验告诉我们什么