<p>加密市场在周四复苏，投资者继续购买像加密货币和成长股这样的高风险资产。美联储昨天决定不改变利率也起到了作用，但似乎贸易紧张局势缓解的想法同样影响了市场。</p>
<p>美国东部时间下午 2:30，<strong>比特币</strong>(BTC 5.20%) 在过去 24 小时内上涨了 5%，<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH 15.42%) 上涨了 13.8%，<strong>狗狗币</strong>(DOGE 11.65%) 上涨了 10.8%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc3MTAvYml0Y29pbi1kaWdpdGFsLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc3MTAvYml0Y29pbi1kaWdpdGFsLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>贸易协议、利率与加密货币</h2>
<p>昨天最大的新闻是美联储将联邦基金利率维持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 之间，这正是市场所预期的。但特朗普总统正在推动降低利率，而关税则威胁着通货膨胀，这让市场对两者之间的紧张关系感到担忧。</p>
<p>作为关税紧张局势可能缓解的一个迹象，特朗普总统今天宣布与英国达成贸易协议，这实际上更像是一个框架，具体细节将在后续商讨。该协议减少了一些药品和汽车的进口关税，同时维持对所有进口商品的 10% 关税不变。</p>
<p>该协议并不算颠覆性，仍有许多细节需要谈判，但市场是前瞻性的，因此投资者在想如果不久后宣布更多 “协议”，将会产生什么影响。美联储可能很快会减少对关税引发的通货膨胀的担忧，转而关注经济疲软，从而使中央银行开始降息。</p>
<h2>区块链发展持续</h2>
<p>尽管区块链日常交易具有投机性质，但与实用性相关的加密货币却传来了积极的消息。以太坊的 Pectra 升级旨在为区块链提供更好的可扩展性，这在以太坊使用速度慢、成本高的情况下是非常必要的。</p>
<p>狗狗币也传来了好消息，DogeOS 筹集了 690 万美元来构建一个狗狗币应用层。狗狗币仍然是一个表情包币，但一些开发者希望赋予它更多的实用性。</p>
<p>尽管比特币的使用案例相对较少，但作为最大、最稳定的加密货币，其角色依然存在。这就是为什么投资者称其为数字黄金。</p>
<h2>加密货币未来将何去何从？</h2>
<p>市场的投机推动了加密货币和成长股的上涨，得益于强劲的财报季。但在四月初宣布的关税要到第二季度才会影响商业，零售商的货架在几个月内不会出现空缺。</p>
<p>如果经济下滑，企业和政府裁员，这可能是种不可持续的反弹。根据 Challenger, Gray 和 Christmas 的报告，四月有 105,441 人被裁员，比去年增加了 63%。其中大约一半的裁员来自政府的 DOGE 计划。</p>
<p>我们在以往的经济衰退中看到，事件与其造成的经济影响之间存在滞后。在 2008 年 3 月，贝尔斯登倒闭，市场在一年内才触底。裁员和关税及其最终经济影响之间将存在数月的滞后。</p>
<p>出于这个原因，我对这次反弹持怀疑态度，并认为市场可能已经在 2025 年过于乐观。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币已突破 101,000 美元，在 24 小时内上涨了 5%，与以太坊和狗狗币一起，随着加密市场的反弹而上涨。美联储决定维持利率不变以及缓解贸易紧张局势为此次反弹提供了支持。特朗普总统宣布与英国达成贸易协议，降低了一些关税，这激发了投资者的乐观情绪。然而，关于潜在经济衰退和裁员增加的担忧可能对此次反弹的可持续性构成风险。尽管区块链发展积极，但在经济不确定性中，市场未来走势仍然存在怀疑</p>

<p>The crypto market came to life on Thursday as investors continued to buy riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and growth stocks. The Federal Reserve's move to not change interest rates yesterday played a role, but so does the seeming idea that trade tensions are easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密市场在周四复苏，投资者继续购买像加密货币和成长股这样的高风险资产。美联储昨天决定不改变利率也起到了作用，但似乎贸易紧张局势缓解的想法同样影响了市场。</p>
</div><p>At 2:30 p.m. ET, <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 5.20%) is up 5% over the past 24 hours, <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH 15.42%) has jumped 13.8%, and <strong>Dogecoin</strong>(DOGE 11.65%) is up 10.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国东部时间下午 2:30，<strong>比特币</strong>(BTC 5.20%) 在过去 24 小时内上涨了 5%，<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH 15.42%) 上涨了 13.8%，<strong>狗狗币</strong>(DOGE 11.65%) 上涨了 10.8%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc3MTAvYml0Y29pbi1kaWdpdGFsLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817710%2Fbitcoin-digital.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Trade deals, interest rates, and crypto</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>贸易协议、利率与加密货币</h2>
</div><p>The biggest news of yesterday was the Federal Reserve keeping the fed funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, which was what the market expected. But President Trump is pushing for lower rates while tariffs are threatening inflation, which has made the market worried about the tension between the two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天最大的新闻是美联储将联邦基金利率维持在 4.25% 至 4.5% 之间，这正是市场所预期的。但特朗普总统正在推动降低利率，而关税则威胁着通货膨胀，这让市场对两者之间的紧张关系感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>As a sign that tariff tension may ease, President Trump announced a trade deal with the U.K. today, which is really more of a framework with details to be worked out later. The deal reduces some import tariffs on pharmaceuticals and automobiles while keeping the 10% tariff on all imports in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为关税紧张局势可能缓解的一个迹象，特朗普总统今天宣布与英国达成贸易协议，这实际上更像是一个框架，具体细节将在后续商讨。该协议减少了一些药品和汽车的进口关税，同时维持对所有进口商品的 10% 关税不变。</p>
</div><p>The deal isn't exactly earth-shattering and leaves a lot of details to be negotiated, but the market is forward looking so investors are wondering what the impact will be if more &#34;deals&#34; are announced soon. The Fed may soon start worrying less about tariff-induced inflation and look at the weakening economy, leaving the central bank to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该协议并不算颠覆性，仍有许多细节需要谈判，但市场是前瞻性的，因此投资者在想如果不久后宣布更多 “协议”，将会产生什么影响。美联储可能很快会减少对关税引发的通货膨胀的担忧，转而关注经济疲软，从而使中央银行开始降息。</p>
</div><h2>Blockchain developments continue</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>区块链发展持续</h2>
</div><p>Despite the speculative nature of day-to-day trading on the blockchain, there has been some positive news for these cryptocurrencies as it relates to utility. Ethereum's Pectra upgrade is intended to provide more scalability for the blockchain, which is needed given the slow speed and high cost for using Ethereum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管区块链日常交易具有投机性质，但与实用性相关的加密货币却传来了积极的消息。以太坊的 Pectra 升级旨在为区块链提供更好的可扩展性，这在以太坊使用速度慢、成本高的情况下是非常必要的。</p>
</div><p>Dogecoin got some positive news when DogeOS raised $6.9 million to build a Dogecoin app layer. Dogecoin is still a meme coin, but some developers want to give it more utility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>狗狗币也传来了好消息，DogeOS 筹集了 690 万美元来构建一个狗狗币应用层。狗狗币仍然是一个表情包币，但一些开发者希望赋予它更多的实用性。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's role as the largest, most stable cryptocurrency remains despite its relatively few use cases. But that's why investors call it digital gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管比特币的使用案例相对较少，但作为最大、最稳定的加密货币，其角色依然存在。这就是为什么投资者称其为数字黄金。</p>
</div><h2>Where does crypto go from here?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加密货币未来将何去何从？</h2>
</div><p>The market's speculation has pushed crypto higher along with growth stocks, helped by a solid earnings season. But the tariffs announced in early April won't impact business until the second quarter, and empty shelves won't be seen at retailers for months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的投机推动了加密货币和成长股的上涨，得益于强劲的财报季。但在四月初宣布的关税要到第二季度才会影响商业，零售商的货架在几个月内不会出现空缺。</p>
</div><p>This could be the kind of bounce that's unsustainable if the economy turns south, as companies and the government reduce staff. There were 105,441 layoffs in April, according to a report from Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, 63% higher than a year ago. About half of those cuts were from the government's DOGE initiative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果经济下滑，企业和政府裁员，这可能是种不可持续的反弹。根据 Challenger, Gray 和 Christmas 的报告，四月有 105,441 人被裁员，比去年增加了 63%。其中大约一半的裁员来自政府的 DOGE 计划。</p>
</div><p>We have seen in previous recessions that there's a lag between an event and the economic impacts it causes. In March 2008, Bear Stearns collapsed, and the market wouldn't bottom for another year. There will be a multimonth lag between layoffs and tariffs and their ultimate economic impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们在以往的经济衰退中看到，事件与其造成的经济影响之间存在滞后。在 2008 年 3 月，贝尔斯登倒闭，市场在一年内才触底。裁员和关税及其最终经济影响之间将存在数月的滞后。</p>
</div><p>I'm skeptical of this rally for that reason and think the market may already be getting out ahead of itself in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>出于这个原因，我对这次反弹持怀疑态度，并认为市场可能已经在 2025 年过于乐观。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin Soars Past $101,000 as Crypto Bounces Back

- 加密市场因投资者购买风险资产而复苏，比特币上涨 5%。  
- 美联储维持利率不变，特朗普推动降低关税以缓解通胀。  
- 4 月份裁员 105,441 人，经济影响可能滞后，市场反弹或不可持续。  

比特币突破 101,000 美元大关，加密货币市场回暖