<p>全球科技巨头苹果公司（Apple Inc.，AAPL）在智能手机和个人计算机市场长期占据主导地位，但现在在中国面临重大挑战，这可能会在短期内影响其增长。正如预期的那样，该公司开始着手解决这些问题，原因在于缺乏可折叠智能手机的产品以及令人失望的人工智能能力。</p><p>尽管苹果尚未正式确认推出可折叠设备，但彭博社的报道表明，该公司即将推出其在中国的 Apple Intelligence 人工智能套件，此前自去年十月以来一直延迟。尽管这标志着进展，但我对该股票持中立态度，因为我认为当前的估值合理反映了公司的基本面，提供的上行空间有限，安全边际也不高。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/60962df05b329f72e94b1c52fc507ec4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="784" height="411" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/60962df05b329f72e94b1c52fc507ec4"/></figure><h2 id="897ymeopd"><strong>苹果未能推出可折叠智能手机影响销售</strong></h2><p>我对苹果持续增长的担忧源于其在中国的近期表现不佳，而中国是该公司最重要的目标市场之一，去年财年的收入占比达到 17%。最近，苹果在中国的收入同比下降了 8%，在 2025 财年第二季度，中国收入下降超过 2%，这表明新财年面临的挑战仍在继续。对苹果在中国表现的深入研究显示，未能在中国推出可折叠智能手机使公司失去了市场份额。</p><p>根据 Canalys 的数据，苹果在 2024 年的中国智能手机出货量为 4290 万部，同比下降了 17%。因此，该公司的市场份额降至 15%，落后于 Vivo 和华为。有趣的是，Vivo 和华为在 2024 年均报告了强劲的出货增长（分别为 11% 和 37%），这表明苹果的困境是孤立的。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/7ade7021f105e3a22a49ebacbc44839f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="863" height="578" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/7ade7021f105e3a22a49ebacbc44839f"/></figure><p>有趣的是，尽管 2024 年中国智能手机的总出货量仅增长了 4%，但可折叠智能手机的出货量同比增长了 27%，这证实了支持这一细分市场的有利因素。华为在可折叠智能手机市场的市场份额接近 50%，在 2024 年处于领先地位（2024 年五款最畅销的可折叠智能手机中有四款是华为的型号）。</p><p>尽管有关于可折叠 iPhone 的传闻，但苹果尚未确认这些消息。只要公司未能满足中国对可折叠智能手机日益增长的需求，苹果在可预见的未来不太可能扭转市场份额的损失。</p><h2 id="yz28pmtoo"><strong>苹果的人工智能进展缓慢，竞争加剧</strong></h2><p>另一个让我最近对苹果保持谨慎的因素是该公司在人工智能方面的进展乏善可陈。在中国，缺乏人工智能功能导致客户不满。Canalys 进行的一项调查发现，中国消费者在全球三大智能手机市场（中国、美国和印度）中对人工智能的倾向最强。数据显示，43% 的中国消费者对人工智能有很高的倾向，而美国仅为 15%。尽管苹果的人工智能短缺可能不会损害其在美国的销售，但在中国采用同样的策略已经证明代价高昂。</p><p>令人鼓舞的是，苹果正在逐步接近在中国推出 Apple Intelligence，预计将作为 iOS 18.6 版本的一部分推出。这家美国科技巨头据报道正在与中国人工智能巨头阿里巴巴集团（Alibaba Group Holding，BABA）和百度（Baidu, Inc.，BIDU）合作，为中国消费者带来人工智能功能。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d4a366b39840fb7ffcd28d1fc1e0695e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="260" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d4a366b39840fb7ffcd28d1fc1e0695e"/></figure><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0eb47352da2f23e37d9d4c7a3e0a16dd?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="390" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0eb47352da2f23e37d9d4c7a3e0a16dd"/></figure><p>由于出于国家安全威胁的考虑，中国目前不允许将 ChatGPT 和 Gemini 集成到智能手机中。与国内人工智能领导者合作是苹果在中国作为一家人工智能友好的智能手机制造商获得市场认可的最佳途径。三星在与百度合作推动 Galaxy AI 并为中国消费者带来人工智能功能后，已经取得了成功。</p><p>尽管苹果最近的进展标志着朝着正确方向迈出了一步，但该公司尚未走出困境。Apple Intelligence 并未配备三星和华为推出的同样强大的人工智能功能，因此公司还有很多追赶的工作要做。在高级图像编辑、实时通话翻译和人工智能驱动的搜索等关键功能上，三星显然领先于苹果。这种不利的竞争地位可能会阻止苹果在推出人工智能功能后在中国的 iPhone 销售出现反弹。</p><h2 id="lk5mywpf"><strong>深入分析苹果的估值</strong></h2><p>从估值的角度来看，苹果的前瞻市盈率为 27.63，而五年平均为 27.42，我认为苹果的估值合理，留给投资者的安全边际不足，因此在公司面临中国这一关键市场的挑战时，投资这家科技巨头并不具吸引力。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ee9420690e9428d0689f5ffbe832f98c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="391" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/ee9420690e9428d0689f5ffbe832f98c"/></figure><p>更不用说，美国与中国之间持续的贸易战也将对苹果产生负面影响。在报告第二季度财报后，该公司预计由于新宣布的关税，成本将增加 9 亿美元。苹果是一家管理良好的企业，但目前似乎并不具备吸引力作为投资选择。</p><h2 id="xk3rtjyc"><strong>苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</strong></h2><p>在华尔街，AAPL 股票的共识评级为适度买入，基于过去三个月的 17 个买入、8 个持有和 4 个卖出评级。AAPL 的平均目标价为 228.65 美元，意味着未来十二个月大约有 16% 的上行潜力。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0c83a26b175a19eb35d91bf056765458?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="765" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0c83a26b175a19eb35d91bf056765458"/></figure><p><strong>查看更多 AAPL 分析师评级</strong></p><p>尽管苹果看起来很有吸引力，但许多分析师最近强调了该公司面临的一些挑战。例如，MoffettNathanson 的分析师几个月前指出，由于人工智能进展乏力和民族主义上升，苹果在中国的品牌价值已经下降。在消化了上周的第二季度财报后，Saxo Bank 也指出，苹果需要进行重大创新才能重新夺回在中国失去的市场份额。</p><h2 id="lmk6buvtr"><strong>尽管有人工智能努力，苹果在中国的困境依然持续</strong></h2><p>苹果在中国这个关键市场面临阻力，原因是可折叠智能手机上市的延迟以及在人工智能方面的缓慢进展。尽管最近在人工智能方面采取的一些措施显示出一定的希望，但苹果在中国的市场份额在可预见的未来可能仍将承压。考虑到这些风险，股票在当前水平上似乎被合理定价，因此我保持中立立场，尽管其股票回购的吸引力依然存在。</p><p>免责声明与披露报告问题</p>

苹果

<p>苹果 (AAPL) 努力恢复在中国市场的份额，因贸易战加剧</p>

<p>Global tech giant Apple Inc. (AAPL), long dominant in the smartphone and personal computing markets, is now grappling with significant headwinds in China that will likely weigh on growth in the near term. As anticipated, the company is beginning to address these issues, driven by the absence of a foldable smartphone offering and underwhelming AI capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球科技巨头苹果公司（Apple Inc.，AAPL）在智能手机和个人计算机市场长期占据主导地位，但现在在中国面临重大挑战，这可能会在短期内影响其增长。正如预期的那样，该公司开始着手解决这些问题，原因在于缺乏可折叠智能手机的产品以及令人失望的人工智能能力。</p>
</div><p>While Apple has not officially confirmed a foldable device, Bloomberg reports suggest it is close to rolling out its Apple Intelligence AI suite in China, following delays since last October. Though this marks progress, I remain neutral on the stock, as I believe the current valuation fairly reflects the company’s fundamentals, offering limited upside and little margin of safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果尚未正式确认推出可折叠设备，但彭博社的报道表明，该公司即将推出其在中国的 Apple Intelligence 人工智能套件，此前自去年十月以来一直延迟。尽管这标志着进展，但我对该股票持中立态度，因为我认为当前的估值合理反映了公司的基本面，提供的上行空间有限，安全边际也不高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-589.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-589.png"/></p>
<h2><strong>Apple’s Failure to Launch a Foldable Smartphone is Hurting Sales</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>苹果未能推出可折叠智能手机影响销售</strong></h2>
</div><p>My concerns regarding Apple’s continued growth stem from its poor recent performance in China, one of the company’s most important target markets, hauling in 17% of revenue in the previous financial year. Most recently, Apple’s China revenue fell 8% YoY, and in Q2 FY2025, China revenue declined over 2%, suggesting that struggles are continuing in the new financial year as well. A closer study of Apple’s performance in China reveals that the failure to launch a foldable smartphone in China has cost the company market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对苹果持续增长的担忧源于其在中国的近期表现不佳，而中国是该公司最重要的目标市场之一，去年财年的收入占比达到 17%。最近，苹果在中国的收入同比下降了 8%，在 2025 财年第二季度，中国收入下降超过 2%，这表明新财年面临的挑战仍在继续。对苹果在中国表现的深入研究显示，未能在中国推出可折叠智能手机使公司失去了市场份额。</p>
</div><p>According to Canalys data, Apple’s China smartphone shipments were 42.9 million in 2024, a notable 17% YoY decline. As a result, the company’s market share fell to 15%, behind Vivo and Huawei. Interestingly, both Vivo and Huawei reported strong shipment growth in 2024 (11% and 37%, respectively), which reveals Apple’s struggles are isolated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Canalys 的数据，苹果在 2024 年的中国智能手机出货量为 4290 万部，同比下降了 17%。因此，该公司的市场份额降至 15%，落后于 Vivo 和华为。有趣的是，Vivo 和华为在 2024 年均报告了强劲的出货增长（分别为 11% 和 37%），这表明苹果的困境是孤立的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-591.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-591.png"/></p>
<p>Interestingly, while total smartphone shipments in China grew just 4% in 2024, foldable smartphone shipments grew 27% YoY, confirming the tailwinds supporting this niche market segment. With a market share of almost 50% in the foldable smartphone segment, Huawei led the way in 2024 (four of the five best-selling foldable smartphones in 2024 were Huawei models).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，尽管 2024 年中国智能手机的总出货量仅增长了 4%，但可折叠智能手机的出货量同比增长了 27%，这证实了支持这一细分市场的有利因素。华为在可折叠智能手机市场的市场份额接近 50%，在 2024 年处于领先地位（2024 年五款最畅销的可折叠智能手机中有四款是华为的型号）。</p>
</div><p>Although there are rumors of a foldable iPhone, Apple has yet to confirm them. As long as the company fails to cater to the surging demand for foldable smartphones in China, Apple is unlikely to reverse market share losses in the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有关于可折叠 iPhone 的传闻，但苹果尚未确认这些消息。只要公司未能满足中国对可折叠智能手机日益增长的需求，苹果在可预见的未来不太可能扭转市场份额的损失。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Slow AI Progress for Apple as Competition Heats Up</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>苹果的人工智能进展缓慢，竞争加剧</strong></h2>
</div><p>Another factor that has kept me cautious on Apple recently is the lackluster progress the company has made with AI. In China, the lack of AI features has led to dissatisfied customers. A survey conducted by Canalys found that Chinese consumers had the strongest AI inclination among the top three smartphone markets in the world (China, the U.S., and India). Data revealed that 43% of Chinese consumers have a high AI inclination, compared to just 15% in the U.S. Although Apple’s AI deficit may not harm U.S. sales, applying the same playbook to China has already proven to be costly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个让我最近对苹果保持谨慎的因素是该公司在人工智能方面的进展乏善可陈。在中国，缺乏人工智能功能导致客户不满。Canalys 进行的一项调查发现，中国消费者在全球三大智能手机市场（中国、美国和印度）中对人工智能的倾向最强。数据显示，43% 的中国消费者对人工智能有很高的倾向，而美国仅为 15%。尽管苹果的人工智能短缺可能不会损害其在美国的销售，但在中国采用同样的策略已经证明代价高昂。</p>
</div><p>Encouragingly, Apple is inching closer to unveiling Apple Intelligence in China, which is expected to be rolled out as part of the iOS 18.6 release. The U.S. tech giant is reportedly partnering with Chinese AI giants Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) and Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) to bring AI features to Chinese consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>令人鼓舞的是，苹果正在逐步接近在中国推出 Apple Intelligence，预计将作为 iOS 18.6 版本的一部分推出。这家美国科技巨头据报道正在与中国人工智能巨头阿里巴巴集团（Alibaba Group Holding，BABA）和百度（Baidu, Inc.，BIDU）合作，为中国消费者带来人工智能功能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-593-1024x260.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-593-1024x260.png"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-594-1024x390.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-594-1024x390.png"/></p>
<p>China does not currently allow the integration of ChatGPT and Gemini into smartphones due to perceived national security threats. Partnering with domestic AI leaders is the best way for Apple to gain traction in China as an AI-friendly smartphone manufacturer. Samsung has already seen success with this strategy after partnering with Baidu to power Galaxy AI and bring AI features to Chinese consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于出于国家安全威胁的考虑，中国目前不允许将 ChatGPT 和 Gemini 集成到智能手机中。与国内人工智能领导者合作是苹果在中国作为一家人工智能友好的智能手机制造商获得市场认可的最佳途径。三星在与百度合作推动 Galaxy AI 并为中国消费者带来人工智能功能后，已经取得了成功。</p>
</div><p>Although Apple’s recent progress marks a step in the right direction, the company is not yet out of the woods. Apple Intelligence is not equipped with the same powerful AI features introduced by Samsung and Huawei, so the company has much catching up to do. In key functionalities such as advanced image editing, real-time call translation, and AI-powered searches, Samsung is clearly ahead of Apple. This disadvantaged competitive position may prevent Apple from registering a rebound in iPhone sales in China even after the rollout of AI features.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果最近的进展标志着朝着正确方向迈出了一步，但该公司尚未走出困境。Apple Intelligence 并未配备三星和华为推出的同样强大的人工智能功能，因此公司还有很多追赶的工作要做。在高级图像编辑、实时通话翻译和人工智能驱动的搜索等关键功能上，三星显然领先于苹果。这种不利的竞争地位可能会阻止苹果在推出人工智能功能后在中国的 iPhone 销售出现反弹。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Delving into Apple’s Valuation</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>深入分析苹果的估值</strong></h2>
</div><p>From a valuation perspective, at a forward P/E of 27.63 compared to the five-year average of 27.42, I believe Apple is reasonably valued, leaving insufficient margin of safety to bet on the tech giant at a time when the company is facing challenges in China, one of its key markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从估值的角度来看，苹果的前瞻市盈率为 27.63，而五年平均为 27.42，我认为苹果的估值合理，留给投资者的安全边际不足，因此在公司面临中国这一关键市场的挑战时，投资这家科技巨头并不具吸引力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-592-1024x391.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-592-1024x391.png"/></p>
<p>Not to forget, the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China will also negatively impact Apple. After reporting Q2 earnings, the company projected a $900 million incremental cost increase due to newly announced tariffs. Apple is a well-managed business, but it does not seem to be attractive as an investment option today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更不用说，美国与中国之间持续的贸易战也将对苹果产生负面影响。在报告第二季度财报后，该公司预计由于新宣布的关税，成本将增加 9 亿美元。苹果是一家管理良好的企业，但目前似乎并不具备吸引力作为投资选择。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is Apple a Buy, Sell, or Hold?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</strong></h2>
</div><p>On Wall Street, AAPL stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buy, eight Hold, and four Sell ratings over the past three months. AAPL’s average price target of $228.65 implies approximately 16% upside potential over the next twelve months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在华尔街，AAPL 股票的共识评级为适度买入，基于过去三个月的 17 个买入、8 个持有和 4 个卖出评级。AAPL 的平均目标价为 228.65 美元，意味着未来十二个月大约有 16% 的上行潜力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-590-1024x765.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/image-590-1024x765.png"/></p>
<p><strong>See more AAPL analyst ratings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看更多 AAPL 分析师评级</strong></p>
</div><p>Although Apple seems attractive, many analysts have recently highlighted some of the challenges faced by the company. For instance, MoffettNathanson analysts pointed out a couple of months ago how Apple’s brand value has eroded in China amid lackluster AI progress and rising nationalism. After digesting Q2 earnings last week, Saxo Bank also noted that major innovations are required for Apple to regain lost market share in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果看起来很有吸引力，但许多分析师最近强调了该公司面临的一些挑战。例如，MoffettNathanson 的分析师几个月前指出，由于人工智能进展乏力和民族主义上升，苹果在中国的品牌价值已经下降。在消化了上周的第二季度财报后，Saxo Bank 也指出，苹果需要进行重大创新才能重新夺回在中国失去的市场份额。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Apple’s China Troubles Persist Despite AI Efforts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>尽管有人工智能努力，苹果在中国的困境依然持续</strong></h2>
</div><p>Apple is encountering headwinds in China, one of its critical markets, driven by delays in bringing a foldable smartphone to market and its slow progress in AI. While recent steps on the AI front show some promise, Apple’s market share in China will likely stay under pressure for the foreseeable future. Given these risks, the stock appears fairly valued at current levels, leading me to maintain a neutral stance despite the continued appeal of its share buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在中国这个关键市场面临阻力，原因是可折叠智能手机上市的延迟以及在人工智能方面的缓慢进展。尽管最近在人工智能方面采取的一些措施显示出一定的希望，但苹果在中国的市场份额在可预见的未来可能仍将承压。考虑到这些风险，股票在当前水平上似乎被合理定价，因此我保持中立立场，尽管其股票回购的吸引力依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Disclaimer &amp; DisclosureReport an Issue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>免责声明与披露报告问题</p>
</div>

Apple (AAPL) Scrambles to Regain Chinese Market Share as Trade War Intensifies

- 苹果在中国市场面临重大挑战，收入下降 8%。  
- 未推出可折叠手机和 AI 进展缓慢影响市场份额。  
- 尽管 AI 有进展，苹果在中国的竞争力仍然不足。  

随着贸易战的加剧，苹果（AAPL）正在努力重新夺回中国市场份额