<p>因为 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.55%）是 “七大巨头” 之一，投资者自然对公司未来一年的状况充满好奇。该综合企业凭借开创两个关键行业而建立了自身，并且随着这些业务的持续增长，明智地将自己定位为在几乎任何经济环境中都能繁荣发展。在这样的情况下，其长期成功可能会继续。</p>
<p>不过，其短期前景则更加不确定。亚马逊的市值约为 2 万亿美元，估值下滑，似乎正在逐步成为一家成熟公司。这是否意味着投资者应该现在买入，还是应该在增加股份之前先应对短期的不确定性？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyNTEvYm94LXdpdGgtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyNTEvYm94LXdpdGgtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<h2>对亚马逊的担忧</h2>
<p>诚然，投资者可能对亚马逊最近几个月的表现感到失望。在过去的一年中，股票没有净收益，自 2 月初达到峰值以来已下跌超过 25%。</p>
<p>这种回调大幅降低了其估值溢价。其市盈率从两年前的 100 以上稳步下降，目前为 30。</p>
<p>在过去的几年中，人们可能会认为这种相对折扣使得该股票值得购买。然而，亚马逊的庞大规模可能并不是其市盈率压缩的唯一原因。该公司刚刚发布了 2025 年第一季度的财报，这揭示了一些短期挑战。</p>
<p>第一季度在线销售增长放缓至每年 6%，而去年同期为 7%。投资者已经习惯于其云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的快速增长。尽管如此，其年度增长在第一季度略微下降至 17%，而 2024 年为 18%。</p>
<p>其第三方卖家服务业务也在放缓。在持续实现两位数百分比增长后，其第一季度的增长降至每年 7%。关税问题增加了不确定性，因为这些问题可能会影响在线销售和第三方卖家服务。</p>
<h2>继续信任亚马逊的理由</h2>
<p>然而，目前尚不清楚关税最终将如何影响销售。据报道，几十个国家正在与美国重新谈判贸易协议。这可能是关税仅是短期阻力的原因之一。</p>
<p>此外，亚马逊是全球最大的电子商务公司和云服务提供商，这两个行业都在持续增长。Grand View Research 预测，电子商务行业的年复合增长率为 19%，云计算为 20%，到 2030 年。因此，即使亚马逊的庞大规模和大数法则可能会阻碍高百分比增长，但这表明公司的扩张仍在继续。</p>
<p>尽管净销售增长放缓，但其第一季度的净收入为 170 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 64%。在此期间，其营业利润率从一年前的 10.7% 提高至 11.8%，因为公司控制了成本和费用。因此，股票可能并没有像净销售增长率下降所暗示的那样陷入困境，这可能使亚马逊在当前的盈利倍数下成为一只价值股。</p>
<h2>一年后的亚马逊股票</h2>
<p>考虑到亚马逊股票的状态，预计在未来一年内会有所上涨。相对较低的市盈率本身并不能使该公司值得购买，而净销售增长放缓应引起投资者的关注。但随着即将到来的贸易协议，关税问题可能在一年后不会对股票产生如此显著的影响。</p>
<p>此外，亚马逊的两个主要行业在未来十年内可能会继续快速增长。因此，即使其利润在 2026 年第一季度未能达到该增长率，投资者仍应从可观的利润增长中受益。这种情况使得亚马逊股票在一年后显著上涨的可能性更大。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股票表现平平，过去一年没有净收益，自二月份以来下降了 25%。尽管在线销售和云计算业务的增长放缓，但该公司仍然是电子商务和云服务的领导者，报告了显著的利润增长。分析师表示，尽管短期内存在不确定性，包括关税问题，但由于其关键行业的持续增长和有利的贸易发展，亚马逊的股票在未来一年内可能会上涨</p>

<p>Because <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.55%) is a component of the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; investors are naturally curious about the state of the company over the next year. The conglomerate built itself on pioneering two key industries and, with secular growth continuing in those businesses, has wisely positioned itself to prosper in nearly any economic environment. Amid such conditions, its long-term success is likely to continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因为 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.55%）是 “七大巨头” 之一，投资者自然对公司未来一年的状况充满好奇。该综合企业凭借开创两个关键行业而建立了自身，并且随着这些业务的持续增长，明智地将自己定位为在几乎任何经济环境中都能繁荣发展。在这样的情况下，其长期成功可能会继续。</p>
</div><p>Still, its near-term prospects are more uncertain. With a market cap of about $2 trillion and a falling valuation, Amazon appears to be in the process of becoming a mature company. Does that mean investors should buy now, or should they wade through the near-term uncertainty before adding shares?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，其短期前景则更加不确定。亚马逊的市值约为 2 万亿美元，估值下滑，似乎正在逐步成为一家成熟公司。这是否意味着投资者应该现在买入，还是应该在增加股份之前先应对短期的不确定性？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcyNTEvYm94LXdpdGgtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817251%2Fbox-with-logo.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Concerns about Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对亚马逊的担忧</h2>
</div><p>Admittedly, investors may feel disappointed about Amazon's performance in recent months. Over the previous year, the stock has made no net gains, and it has fallen by more than 25% since peaking in early February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，投资者可能对亚马逊最近几个月的表现感到失望。在过去的一年中，股票没有净收益，自 2 月初达到峰值以来已下跌超过 25%。</p>
</div><p>That pullback has dramatically reduced its valuation premium. Its P/E ratio, which was above 100 two years ago, has fallen steadily and now stands at 30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种回调大幅降低了其估值溢价。其市盈率从两年前的 100 以上稳步下降，目前为 30。</p>
</div><p>In past years, one might have assumed that that relative discount made the stock a buy. Nonetheless, Amazon's massive size may not be the only reason for its compressed multiple. The company just released its earnings report for the first quarter of 2025, and that brought to light some near-term challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的几年中，人们可能会认为这种相对折扣使得该股票值得购买。然而，亚马逊的庞大规模可能并不是其市盈率压缩的唯一原因。该公司刚刚发布了 2025 年第一季度的财报，这揭示了一些短期挑战。</p>
</div><p>Online sales growth slowed to 6% yearly in Q1 when it grew at 7% in the year-ago quarter. Investors have become accustomed to the fast growth of its cloud computing arm, Amazon Web Services (AWS). Still, its yearly growth fell slightly to 17% in Q1 versus 18% in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一季度在线销售增长放缓至每年 6%，而去年同期为 7%。投资者已经习惯于其云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的快速增长。尽管如此，其年度增长在第一季度略微下降至 17%，而 2024 年为 18%。</p>
</div><p>Also slowing is its third-party seller services business. After consistently posting percentage growth in the double-digits, its growth slowed to 7% annually in Q1. Adding to the uncertainty are tariff concerns, as those are likely to affect online sales and third-party seller services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其第三方卖家服务业务也在放缓。在持续实现两位数百分比增长后，其第一季度的增长降至每年 7%。关税问题增加了不确定性，因为这些问题可能会影响在线销售和第三方卖家服务。</p>
</div><h2>Reasons to keep the faith in Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>继续信任亚马逊的理由</h2>
</div><p>However, it is unclear how tariffs will ultimately affect sales. Dozens of countries are reported to be in the process of renegotiating trade deals with the U.S. That alone may be a reason that tariffs are only a short-term headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前尚不清楚关税最终将如何影响销售。据报道，几十个国家正在与美国重新谈判贸易协议。这可能是关税仅是短期阻力的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Amazon is the No. 1 e-commerce company and cloud provider, and both industries are on track for further growth. Grand View Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate for the e-commerce industry at 19% and cloud computing at 20% through 2030. Hence, even if Amazon's massive size and the law of large numbers could hamper high-percentage growth, it shows the company's expansion continues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，亚马逊是全球最大的电子商务公司和云服务提供商，这两个行业都在持续增长。Grand View Research 预测，电子商务行业的年复合增长率为 19%，云计算为 20%，到 2030 年。因此，即使亚马逊的庞大规模和大数法则可能会阻碍高百分比增长，但这表明公司的扩张仍在继续。</p>
</div><p>Despite slowing net sales growth, its net income in Q1 was $17 billion, a 64% increase from year-ago levels. During that time, its operating margin improved to 11.8% versus 10.7% one year ago as the company kept its costs and expenses in check. Thus, the stock may not be in as much trouble as the falling net sales growth rates might imply, possibly making Amazon a value stock at its current earnings multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管净销售增长放缓，但其第一季度的净收入为 170 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 64%。在此期间，其营业利润率从一年前的 10.7% 提高至 11.8%，因为公司控制了成本和费用。因此，股票可能并没有像净销售增长率下降所暗示的那样陷入困境，这可能使亚马逊在当前的盈利倍数下成为一只价值股。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon stock in one year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一年后的亚马逊股票</h2>
</div><p>Considering the state of Amazon's stock, it is likely to rise over the next year. The relatively low P/E ratio does not make the company a buy by itself, and the slowing net sales growth should concern investors. But with upcoming trade deals, the tariff concerns will probably not impact the stock as significantly one year from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到亚马逊股票的状态，预计在未来一年内会有所上涨。相对较低的市盈率本身并不能使该公司值得购买，而净销售增长放缓应引起投资者的关注。但随着即将到来的贸易协议，关税问题可能在一年后不会对股票产生如此显著的影响。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Amazon's two main industries are likely to continue growing rapidly for the rest of the decade. Thus, even if its profits do not match that growth rate in the first quarter of 2026, investors should benefit from considerable profit growth. Such conditions make it more likely than not that Amazon stock will be significantly higher one year from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，亚马逊的两个主要行业在未来十年内可能会继续快速增长。因此，即使其利润在 2026 年第一季度未能达到该增长率，投资者仍应从可观的利润增长中受益。这种情况使得亚马逊股票在一年后显著上涨的可能性更大。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 亚马逊的市值约为 2 万亿美元，面临短期不确定性。  
- 第一季度在线销售增长放缓至 6%，云计算增长降至 17%。  
- 尽管如此，预计未来一年亚马逊股票将显著上涨。  

一年后亚马逊的股票会达到什么水平？