<p>过去几个月对大多数科技股并不友好。以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 年初至今下跌了 8%，投资者担心特朗普总统的关税将阻碍科技公司的增长。</p>
<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.49%) 也未能逃脱波动，今年股价下跌了 22%。更重要的是，尽管最近一个季度的业绩稳健，公司仍预计未来将面临挑战。以下是苹果在一年后的可能情况。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxNzYvYXBwbGUtbWFjYm9vay1haXItaGVyby0yNTAzMDUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxNzYvYXBwbGUtbWFjYm9vay1haXItaGVyby0yNTAzMDUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：苹果。</p>
<h2>苹果第二季度的好与坏</h2>
<p>投资者在关注关税如何影响苹果最新的业绩和前景，但在 2025 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日）并没有太大影响。首席执行官蒂姆·库克在财报电话会议上表示：“在三月季度，我们受到的关税影响有限，因为我们能够优化我们的供应链和库存。”</p>
<p>库克指出，苹果现在从印度采购许多计划在美国销售的 iPhone，而大多数其他前往美国的产品则来自越南。在特朗普总统对许多来自中国的进口商品征收累计 145% 的关税后，苹果重新调整了生产布局。</p>
<p>除了这一挑战，苹果报告了一些积极的结果。销售额同比增长 5%，达到 954 亿美元，超出华尔街 94.6 亿美元的共识预期。科技巨头的每股收益为 1.65 美元，也超过了分析师平均预期的 1.63 美元。同时，公司重要的服务部门增长近 12%，达到 266 亿美元，尽管这低于分析师共识预期的 14% 增长。</p>
<p>尽管公司在这一季度的销售和收益增长稳健，但由于新关税的影响，苹果仍面临阴云密布的前景。</p>
<h2>苹果在未来一年会怎样？</h2>
<p>关税使得公司和投资者很难预测公司的未来，尤其是在短期内。许多管理团队已撤回了年度指引，有些甚至根据关税是否继续实施发布了两套指引。</p>
<p>苹果在预测业绩方面也面临困难，库克在电话会议上表示：“我不想预测未来，因为我不确定关税会发生什么 [...] 超过 6 月的预测非常困难。”</p>
<p>但他确实透露了关税将在当前季度对公司造成的影响：它们将使苹果的成本增加 9 亿美元。这可能只是个开始。</p>
<p>库克表示，投资者不应将当前季度的 9 亿美元估算用于未来季度的预测，“因为有一些独特因素使得 6 月季度受益。”</p>
<h2>简而言之，情况可能会变得更糟</h2>
<p>更糟糕的是，关税可能会发生变化。对几乎所有国家进口商品的 10% 广泛关税仍然存在，而更高的互惠关税则处于暂停状态。同时，中国面临对大多数出口到美国的商品征收 145% 的关税，但政府表示正在与中国进行谈判，以缓解贸易战的紧张局势。更令人困惑的是，特朗普总统已对特定行业和部门的某些关税进行了回撤。</p>
<p>所有这些加在一起，形成了一个复杂的监管环境，像苹果这样的公司正在努力应对，规则并不明确。</p>
<p>另一个表明苹果未来一年可能不太乐观的迹象是，公司将今年的股票回购授权削减了 100 亿美元，总额降至 1000 亿美元。当公司对未来不确定时，通常会减少回购计划。</p>
<p>这一届政府贸易政策的波动性意味着，许多公司的短期和中期前景几乎无法预测。关税最终可能迫使苹果提高产品价格，或吸收部分成本，从而影响其收益。这种情况发生的程度仍然未知，但如果美国的贸易谈判破裂，苹果投资者应做好迎接艰难时刻的准备。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票今年下跌了 22%，原因是人们对关税影响科技增长的担忧。尽管第二季度销售额增长了 5%，达到 954 亿美元，但首席执行官蒂姆·库克警告未来将面临挑战，包括预计因关税造成的 9 亿美元成本。公司已将股票回购减少了 100 亿美元，显示出不确定性。由于贸易政策波动，未来的预测仍不明朗，如果谈判恶化，投资者应准备应对潜在的价格上涨或盈利压力</p>

<p>The past few months have not been kind to most tech stocks. The tech-heavy <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> is down 8% year to date as investors worry that President Trump's tariffs will impede technology companies' growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几个月对大多数科技股并不友好。以科技股为主的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 年初至今下跌了 8%，投资者担心特朗普总统的关税将阻碍科技公司的增长。</p>
</div><p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.49%) has not been immune to the volatility with the stock tumbling 22% this year. More importantly, the company is expecting challenges ahead despite solid results from its most recent quarter. Here's where Apple could be one year from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.49%) 也未能逃脱波动，今年股价下跌了 22%。更重要的是，尽管最近一个季度的业绩稳健，公司仍预计未来将面临挑战。以下是苹果在一年后的可能情况。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTcxNzYvYXBwbGUtbWFjYm9vay1haXItaGVyby0yNTAzMDUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817176%2Fapple-macbook-air-hero-250305.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：苹果。</p>
</div><h2>The good and bad of Apple's second quarter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果第二季度的好与坏</h2>
</div><p>Investors were wondering how tariffs would play into Apple's latest results and outlook, but they didn't have much of an impact on the fiscal 2025 second quarter (ended Mar. 29). CEO Tim Cook said on the earnings call, &#34;For the March quarter, we had a limited impact from tariffs as we were able to optimize our supply chain and inventory.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在关注关税如何影响苹果最新的业绩和前景，但在 2025 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日）并没有太大影响。首席执行官蒂姆·库克在财报电话会议上表示：“在三月季度，我们受到的关税影响有限，因为我们能够优化我们的供应链和库存。”</p>
</div><p>Cook noted that Apple is now sourcing many of the iPhones slated for sale in the U.S. from India, and most of its other products headed for the U.S. are now coming from Vietnam. Apple reshuffled its production after President Trump slapped a cumulative 145% tariff on many imports from China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库克指出，苹果现在从印度采购许多计划在美国销售的 iPhone，而大多数其他前往美国的产品则来自越南。在特朗普总统对许多来自中国的进口商品征收累计 145% 的关税后，苹果重新调整了生产布局。</p>
</div><p>Beyond that challenge, Apple reported some positive results. Sales climbed 5% year over year to $95.4 billion, beating Wall Street's consensus estimate of $94.6 billion. The tech giant's earnings of $1.65 per share also outpaced the average analyst estimate of $1.63 per share. Meanwhile, the company's important services segment grew nearly 12% to $26.6 billion, though that fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of 14% growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了这一挑战，苹果报告了一些积极的结果。销售额同比增长 5%，达到 954 亿美元，超出华尔街 94.6 亿美元的共识预期。科技巨头的每股收益为 1.65 美元，也超过了分析师平均预期的 1.63 美元。同时，公司重要的服务部门增长近 12%，达到 266 亿美元，尽管这低于分析师共识预期的 14% 增长。</p>
</div><p>Despite the company's solid sales and earnings growth in the quarter, there are still dark clouds on the horizon for Apple stemming from the new tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司在这一季度的销售和收益增长稳健，但由于新关税的影响，苹果仍面临阴云密布的前景。</p>
</div><h2>Where will Apple be over the next year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果在未来一年会怎样？</h2>
</div><p>Tariffs have made it especially difficult for companies and investors to know where a company is headed, especially in the near term. Many management teams have pulled their guidance for the year, and some have even issued two sets of guidance based on whether or not the tariffs stay in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税使得公司和投资者很难预测公司的未来，尤其是在短期内。许多管理团队已撤回了年度指引，有些甚至根据关税是否继续实施发布了两套指引。</p>
</div><p>Apple is struggling to forecast its results as well with Cook saying on the call, &#34;I don't want to predict the future because I'm not sure what will happen with the tariffs [...] it's very difficult to predict beyond June.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在预测业绩方面也面临困难，库克在电话会议上表示：“我不想预测未来，因为我不确定关税会发生什么 [...] 超过 6 月的预测非常困难。”</p>
</div><p>But he did shed some light on how tariffs will dent the company in the current quarter: They will add $900 million to Apple's costs. And that's likely just the beginning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他确实透露了关税将在当前季度对公司造成的影响：它们将使苹果的成本增加 9 亿美元。这可能只是个开始。</p>
</div><p>Cook said investors shouldn't take the $900 million estimate from the current quarter and use it to make projections for future quarters &#34;as there are certain unique factors that benefit the June quarter.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库克表示，投资者不应将当前季度的 9 亿美元估算用于未来季度的预测，“因为有一些独特因素使得 6 月季度受益。”</p>
</div><h2>In short, things could get worse</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>简而言之，情况可能会变得更糟</h2>
</div><p>To make matters worse, tariffs are likely to change. The broad 10% tariff on imported goods from nearly all countries remains, while higher reciprocal tariffs are on pause. Meanwhile, China faces 145% tariffs on most of its exports to the U.S., but the administration says it's talking with China to lower the temperature on the trade war. Even more confusing is that President Trump has walked back some tariffs for specific industries and sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，关税可能会发生变化。对几乎所有国家进口商品的 10% 广泛关税仍然存在，而更高的互惠关税则处于暂停状态。同时，中国面临对大多数出口到美国的商品征收 145% 的关税，但政府表示正在与中国进行谈判，以缓解贸易战的紧张局势。更令人困惑的是，特朗普总统已对特定行业和部门的某些关税进行了回撤。</p>
</div><p>All this adds up to a situation where companies like Apple are trying to navigate a complicated regulatory environment where the rules are less than clear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些加在一起，形成了一个复杂的监管环境，像苹果这样的公司正在努力应对，规则并不明确。</p>
</div><p>Another indicator that the next year could be less than stellar for Apple is the fact the company cut its stock buyback authorization for the year by $10 billion, down to $100 billion total. Companies sometimes reduce their repurchase programs when they're uncertain about the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个表明苹果未来一年可能不太乐观的迹象是，公司将今年的股票回购授权削减了 100 亿美元，总额降至 1000 亿美元。当公司对未来不确定时，通常会减少回购计划。</p>
</div><p>The volatile nature of this administration's trade policies means that having a near- to medium-term outlook for many companies is nearly impossible. Tariffs could eventually force Apple to raise prices on its products or absorb some of the costs and weigh down its earnings. To what degree this happens is still unknown, but Apple investors should brace for difficult times ahead if U.S. trade negotiations fall apart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一届政府贸易政策的波动性意味着，许多公司的短期和中期前景几乎无法预测。关税最终可能迫使苹果提高产品价格，或吸收部分成本，从而影响其收益。这种情况发生的程度仍然未知，但如果美国的贸易谈判破裂，苹果投资者应做好迎接艰难时刻的准备。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 苹果公司在 2025 财年第二季度销售额增长 5%，达 954 亿美元。  
- 尽管业绩良好，特朗普的关税政策仍对苹果未来造成不确定性。  
- 苹果预计当前季度将增加 9 亿美元成本，未来可能面临更大挑战。

一年后苹果的股票会处于什么位置？