<p>埃隆·马斯克喜欢做出大胆的声明。其中一些声明变成现实，但许多并没有。最近，他表示他相信 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 4.66%）有一天可以成为世界上最有价值的公司，声称它的市值可能超过下五家公司总和。今天，这些股票如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的市值总和超过了 10 万亿美元。</p>
<p>特斯拉的市值不到 9000 亿美元，这意味着埃隆·马斯克声称特斯拉有机会从这里上涨约 10 倍。这个说法正确吗？你今天应该购买特斯拉股票吗？让我们进一步探讨马斯克的声明，找出答案。</p>
<h2>一家挣扎中的汽车公司</h2>
<p>在经历了多年的增长后，特斯拉的汽车业务在过去几个季度停滞不前。今年第一季度，客户交付量同比下降了 13%，降至 337,000 辆，而竞争对手在全球范围内抢占市场份额。汽车收入同比下降了 20%，降幅快于交付量，因为特斯拉对其车型实施了大幅降价。新的 Cybertruck 车型表现不佳，短期内不会为公司带来显著销售。</p>
<p>利润率正在下降，过去 12 个月为 7.4%，这导致特斯拉的盈利能力大幅下滑。如果交付量继续下降且售价降低，特斯拉将难以在今年剩余时间内保持运营利润率不下滑。公司没有 2025 年的长期指导，但所有前瞻性指标都表明销售下降将持续全年。特斯拉在中国、欧洲和美国的销售持续下滑，这些都是特斯拉最大的市场。</p>
<p>由于没有新车型在即——至少从管理层公开披露的信息来看——很难对特斯拉的汽车业务未来描绘出美好的前景。也许它可以通过新的 Cybercab 和自动驾驶技术赚取一些利润，但这只是特斯拉多年来承诺的理论未来。它从未推出过机器人出租车，而其竞争对手 Waymo 现在每周提供 250,000 次乘车服务。</p>
<p>这对特斯拉达到 10 万亿美元的市值是否足够有利？这似乎更不可能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc1ODYvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc1ODYvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>一个人在为特斯拉充电。</p>
<h2>我们能指望 Optimus 机器人吗？</h2>
<p>埃隆·马斯克目前对特斯拉的乐观来自于特斯拉正在开发的类人机器人 Optimus 的潜力。他相信，如果这些机器人具备人工智能（AI）软件并能为人类执行物理任务，那么销售 1 亿个每个售价 10 万美元的机器人将会有一个 10 万亿美元的市场。这不是打错字。</p>
<p>虽然 10 万亿美元的收入听起来令人兴奋，但这些都是特斯拉领导者的幻想性声明。特斯拉从未制造出一个功能正常的类人机器人。其演示中的机器人是由人类远程控制的。如果能够制造出一个可用的机器人，很难想象每年对 100 万台的需求，更不用说 100 万台了。每年愿意购买这些机器人的公司和富裕个人数量有限，如果它们真的能被制造出来的话。</p>
<p>当然，马斯克可以声称任何他想要的乐观数字。这并不意味着这些数字是基于经济现实的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2287023a168a7d277b49352516b4a386.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2287023a168a7d277b49352516b4a386.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>投资者需要意识到的残酷事实</h2>
<p>特斯拉的投资者正在慢慢意识到一个残酷的事实：该股票多年来一直被高估。它在 2021 年初的交易价格略低于 300 美元。今天，它的交易价格在 275 美元左右，可能仍然被高估。</p>
<p>特斯拉股票的市盈率（P/E）为 150。典型的汽车股票的市盈率接近 10（我在上面的图表中使用了 <strong>丰田汽车</strong> 作为行业的代表，因为大多数股票的市盈率都在这个范围内）。请记住，特斯拉的汽车收入目前正在以 20% 的速度下降，前瞻性指标也不乐观。</p>
<p>管理层对 Cybercab 和 Optimus Bot 承诺了很多，但这些还不是实际的业务。如果公司能够创新并实现这些，那当然很好，但这并不意味着今天的股票便宜。</p>
<p>即使股票下跌，埃隆·马斯克说特斯拉未来可能价值当前市值的 10 倍，也并不意味着你应该购买该股票。当你剥开这层洋葱时，我看到的只是一个挣扎中的汽车公司，市盈率昂贵。在进一步通知之前，远离特斯拉股票。</p>

特斯拉

<p>埃隆·马斯克声称，特斯拉的市值可能会超过英伟达，达到 10 万亿美元。然而，特斯拉的汽车业务正面临困境，交付量下降了 13%，收入下降了 20%。Cybertruck 的表现不佳，利润率也在下降。马斯克的乐观情绪寄托在尚未验证的特斯拉 Optimus 机器人上，他认为这可能会带来可观的收入。尽管马斯克的预测大胆，但分析师警告称，特斯拉的股票仍然被高估，市盈率为 150，而其汽车收入持续下降</p>

<p>Elon Musk likes to make bold claims. Some of these claims come true, but many do not. Recently, he has stated that he believes <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 4.66%) can be the most valuable company in the world someday, claiming that it could be worth more than the next five companies combined in market capitalization. Today, these stocks such as <strong>Nvidia</strong> are worth more than $10 trillion in combined market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃隆·马斯克喜欢做出大胆的声明。其中一些声明变成现实，但许多并没有。最近，他表示他相信 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 4.66%）有一天可以成为世界上最有价值的公司，声称它的市值可能超过下五家公司总和。今天，这些股票如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的市值总和超过了 10 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's market cap is under $900 billion, meaning that Elon Musk is claiming that Tesla has a chance to go up by around 10x in price from here. Is he correct, and should you buy Tesla stock today? Let's dig further into Musk's claims and find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的市值不到 9000 亿美元，这意味着埃隆·马斯克声称特斯拉有机会从这里上涨约 10 倍。这个说法正确吗？你今天应该购买特斯拉股票吗？让我们进一步探讨马斯克的声明，找出答案。</p>
</div><h2>A struggling car business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家挣扎中的汽车公司</h2>
</div><p>After growing for years, Tesla's automotive business has flat-lined in the last few quarters. In Q1 of this year, deliveries to customers were down 13% year over year to 337,000 while competitors take share in countries around the globe. Automotive revenue slipped 20% year over year, a faster drop than deliveries because of Tesla's huge price cuts implemented on its models. The new Cybertruck vehicle has been a major flop and will not be generating significant sales for the company anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了多年的增长后，特斯拉的汽车业务在过去几个季度停滞不前。今年第一季度，客户交付量同比下降了 13%，降至 337,000 辆，而竞争对手在全球范围内抢占市场份额。汽车收入同比下降了 20%，降幅快于交付量，因为特斯拉对其车型实施了大幅降价。新的 Cybertruck 车型表现不佳，短期内不会为公司带来显著销售。</p>
</div><p>Profit margins are falling, at 7.4% over the last 12 months, which is leading to a huge dip in earnings power for Tesla. If deliveries keep falling with lower selling prices, Tesla is going to struggle to keep operating margin from falling throughout the rest of this year. The company does not have long-term guidance for 2025, but all forward indicators say that the decline in sales will continue throughout the year. Sales keep falling in China, Europe, and the United States, which are Tesla's largest markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利润率正在下降，过去 12 个月为 7.4%，这导致特斯拉的盈利能力大幅下滑。如果交付量继续下降且售价降低，特斯拉将难以在今年剩余时间内保持运营利润率不下滑。公司没有 2025 年的长期指导，但所有前瞻性指标都表明销售下降将持续全年。特斯拉在中国、欧洲和美国的销售持续下滑，这些都是特斯拉最大的市场。</p>
</div><p>With no new models on the horizon -- at least from what management has publicly disclosed -- it is hard to paint a pretty picture for Tesla's automotive business in the future. Perhaps it can make some money from the new Cybercab and autonomous vehicle technology, but that is a theoretical future Tesla has been promising for years. It has never deployed a robotaxi, while its competitor Waymo now does 250,000 rides per week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于没有新车型在即——至少从管理层公开披露的信息来看——很难对特斯拉的汽车业务未来描绘出美好的前景。也许它可以通过新的 Cybercab 和自动驾驶技术赚取一些利润，但这只是特斯拉多年来承诺的理论未来。它从未推出过机器人出租车，而其竞争对手 Waymo 现在每周提供 250,000 次乘车服务。</p>
</div><p>And will it be beneficial enough for Tesla to reach a market cap of $10 trillion? That seems even more unlikely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对特斯拉达到 10 万亿美元的市值是否足够有利？这似乎更不可能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc1ODYvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817586%2Ftesla-ev-electric-vehicle-charging-station.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>A person charging a Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个人在为特斯拉充电。</p>
</div><h2>Can we bank on the Optimus Robot?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我们能指望 Optimus 机器人吗？</h2>
</div><p>Elon Musk's optimism for Tesla at the moment comes from the potential of the Tesla Optimus Robot, a humanoid robot the company is developing. He believes that if these robots have artificial intelligence (AI) software and can perform physical tasks for humans, there is a market for $10 trillion in revenue selling 100 million bots for $100,000 apiece. That is not a typo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃隆·马斯克目前对特斯拉的乐观来自于特斯拉正在开发的类人机器人 Optimus 的潜力。他相信，如果这些机器人具备人工智能（AI）软件并能为人类执行物理任务，那么销售 1 亿个每个售价 10 万美元的机器人将会有一个 10 万亿美元的市场。这不是打错字。</p>
</div><p>While $10 trillion in revenue sounds exciting, these are fantastical claims from the leader of Tesla. Tesla has never built a functioning humanoid robot. The robots at its demonstration were remotely controlled by humans. If it can get a working robot, it is hard to envision demand for 1 million units a year, let alone 100 million. There are only so many corporations and wealthy individuals that would buy these bots every year, if they ever get made in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 10 万亿美元的收入听起来令人兴奋，但这些都是特斯拉领导者的幻想性声明。特斯拉从未制造出一个功能正常的类人机器人。其演示中的机器人是由人类远程控制的。如果能够制造出一个可用的机器人，很难想象每年对 100 万台的需求，更不用说 100 万台了。每年愿意购买这些机器人的公司和富裕个人数量有限，如果它们真的能被制造出来的话。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Musk can claim as optimistic of a figure as he wants. That does not mean these figures are grounded in economic reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，马斯克可以声称任何他想要的乐观数字。这并不意味着这些数字是基于经济现实的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2287023a168a7d277b49352516b4a386.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2287023a168a7d277b49352516b4a386.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>The hard truth investors need to realize</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者需要意识到的残酷事实</h2>
</div><p>Investors in Tesla are slowly realizing a hard truth: The stock has been overvalued for years. It traded at just under $300 at the beginning of 2021. Today, it trades below this level at a price of around $275, and it is likely still overvalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的投资者正在慢慢意识到一个残酷的事实：该股票多年来一直被高估。它在 2021 年初的交易价格略低于 300 美元。今天，它的交易价格在 275 美元左右，可能仍然被高估。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 150. A typical automotive stock will have a P/E closer to 10 (I used <strong>Toyota Motors</strong> in the chart above a stand in for the indsutry since most trade around this range). Remember, Tesla's automotive revenue is declining by 20% a year at the moment, with bad forward-looking indicators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉股票的市盈率（P/E）为 150。典型的汽车股票的市盈率接近 10（我在上面的图表中使用了 <strong>丰田汽车</strong> 作为行业的代表，因为大多数股票的市盈率都在这个范围内）。请记住，特斯拉的汽车收入目前正在以 20% 的速度下降，前瞻性指标也不乐观。</p>
</div><p>Management is promising a lot with the Cybercab and Optimus Bot, but these are not real businesses yet. It would be cool if the company could innovate and pull it off, but that doesn't mean the stock is cheap today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层对 Cybercab 和 Optimus Bot 承诺了很多，但这些还不是实际的业务。如果公司能够创新并实现这些，那当然很好，但这并不意味着今天的股票便宜。</p>
</div><p>Even with the stock down and Elon Musk saying Tesla could be worth 10x its current market value someday does not mean you should buy the stock. When you peel back the layers of this onion, all I see is a struggling automotive business trading at an expensive P/E ratio. Stay far away from Tesla stock until further notice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使股票下跌，埃隆·马斯克说特斯拉未来可能价值当前市值的 10 倍，也并不意味着你应该购买该股票。当你剥开这层洋葱时，我看到的只是一个挣扎中的汽车公司，市盈率昂贵。在进一步通知之前，远离特斯拉股票。</p>
</div>

Elon Musk Thinks Tesla Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia. Is It Time to Finally Buy the Stock?

- 特斯拉的汽车业务在过去几个季度停滞不前，交付量下降 13%。  
- 马斯克声称特斯拉未来可能市值超 10 万亿美元，但缺乏实质性支持。  
- 投资者需警惕特斯拉股票被高估，当前市盈率为 150。  

埃隆·马斯克认为特斯拉的市值将超过英伟达。现在是否是购买这只股票的好时机？