<p>如果你在过去 20 年的任何一年开始投资于 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.55%)，那么五年后你的投资都会盈利。而且对于尚未达到五年标记的时间段，这一说法同样成立。例如，如果你在 2024 年初投资，现在即使股票从高点回落超过 20%，你仍然会盈利。</p>
<p>换句话说，从历史上看，押注这只股票下跌是个糟糕的主意。然而，仍然有一些投资者由于经济不确定性而对这家零售和云计算巨头进行做空。</p>
<p>但对于那些能够屏蔽噪音的投资者来说，亚马逊的股票仍然可能是一个很好的长期投资，接下来我将解释原因。</p>
<h2>驱动亚马逊回报的因素</h2>
<p>亚马逊的零售业务绝对庞大。该公司有许多运作环节，因此专注于零售业务是具有挑战性的。但仅在 2025 年第一季度，在线商店、实体店和第三方卖家服务的净销售额就接近 1000 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYzNjcvZGVsaXZlcnktZHJpdmVyLWRlbGl2ZXJzLWFtYXpvbi1ib3guanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYzNjcvZGVsaXZlcnktZHJpdmVyLWRlbGl2ZXJzLWFtYXpvbi1ib3guanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<p>这三项业务在第一季度占公司总业务的 64%，显示出零售对公司的重要性。凭借其庞大的客户基础以及广泛的物流和运输基础设施，我认为在短期内没有人能够对亚马逊造成实质性的冲击。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，它面临着来自关税的不确定性。首席执行官安迪·贾西明确表示：“我们都不知道关税究竟会落在哪里或何时落定。”</p>
<p>这种不确定性让一些投资者感到不安。但重要的是要记住，关税是整个行业面临的阻力，这意味着这一情况不太可能对亚马逊造成比其竞争对手更大的影响。</p>
<p>换句话说，股东可以期待公司在零售业务上保持稳定。而这一大而不变的业务部分为公司提供了所需的稳定性，使其能够继续推进将为未来几年带来强大股东价值的项目。</p>
<p>未来几年将驱动股东回报的是什么？我相信将继续是亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的增长。</p>
<p>AWS，即云计算部门，在过去 12 个月中产生了 1120 亿美元的净销售额。但投资者不应认为由于其已经庞大的规模，增长就会达到顶峰。第一季度它又增长了 17%，这本身就令人印象深刻。而且这仅仅是其潜力的冰山一角。</p>
<p>贾西指出，目前全球信息技术（IT）支出的约 15% 用于云计算。但在 20 年内，他预计这一比例将接近 85%。换句话说，AWS 是云计算领域的领先平台，贾西预计在未来 20 年内其规模将增长超过五倍。</p>
<p>因此，继续相信 AWS 的长期增长潜力是有理由的。而现在，这一增长无疑受到人工智能（AI）趋势的推动。根据管理层的说法，亚马逊的 AI 业务以超过 100% 的年增长率增长，已经产生了数十亿美元的年净销售额。</p>
<p>如果 AI 业务是一家独立公司，它将成为全球最受关注的企业之一。但在审视亚马逊的帝国时，投资者很容易忽视它。</p>
<p>总而言之，尽管面临关税阻力，但公司的主要零售业务将会很好。而 AWS 则有望在十年或更长时间内实现稳健增长。这在将股票视为投资时非常重要。毕竟，AWS 的盈利能力极强。未来更高的利润可能会推动股票上涨。</p>
<p>仅供参考，AWS 第一季度的营业利润率接近 40%。它占公司第一季度总营业收入的 63%。简而言之，AWS 只需很少的收入增长，就能大幅改善整个公司的底线。因此，随着其增长，得益于 AI 和 IT 支出向云端的转移，亚马逊的利润应该会大幅增长。</p>
<p>这可能不会在 2025 年立即显现——耐心仍然很重要。但我相信，亚马逊的利润在五年内将显著提高，这也可能会推动股票上涨。这就是我仍然认为它是一个长期投资的原因。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊（AMZN）在过去五年中历史上为投资者提供了积极的回报，即使在最近的股市回调中也是如此。尽管面临经济不确定性和关税问题，亚马逊的零售业务依然强劲，对其收入贡献显著。预计亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的增长将推动未来股东回报，云计算支出的增加也在预期之中。此外，亚马逊的人工智能部门正在迅速扩张。总体而言，该公司具备长期增长的潜力，使其股票成为耐心投资者的潜在买入选择</p>

<p>If you invested in <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.55%) at the start of any year over the last 20 years, you'd be up on your investment five years later, every time. And this is true as well for time periods that haven't yet hit the five-year mark. For example, if you invested at the start of 2024, you'd be up right now even though the stock has pulled back more than 20% from its high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在过去 20 年的任何一年开始投资于 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.55%)，那么五年后你的投资都会盈利。而且对于尚未达到五年标记的时间段，这一说法同样成立。例如，如果你在 2024 年初投资，现在即使股票从高点回落超过 20%，你仍然会盈利。</p>
</div><p>In other words, it's been a bad idea to bet against the stock, historically speaking. Nevertheless, there are some investors who are betting against this retail and cloud-computing giant due to economic uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，从历史上看，押注这只股票下跌是个糟糕的主意。然而，仍然有一些投资者由于经济不确定性而对这家零售和云计算巨头进行做空。</p>
</div><p>But Amazon stock is likely still a great long-term buy for those who can tune out the noise, as I'll explain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于那些能够屏蔽噪音的投资者来说，亚马逊的股票仍然可能是一个很好的长期投资，接下来我将解释原因。</p>
</div><h2>Here's what can drive returns for Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>驱动亚马逊回报的因素</h2>
</div><p>Amazon's retail business is absolutely massive. The company has many moving parts, so honing in on just retail operations is challenging. But adding up online stores, physical stores, and third-party seller services, it had net sales of nearly $100 billion in the first quarter of 2025 alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的零售业务绝对庞大。该公司有许多运作环节，因此专注于零售业务是具有挑战性的。但仅在 2025 年第一季度，在线商店、实体店和第三方卖家服务的净销售额就接近 1000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTYzNjcvZGVsaXZlcnktZHJpdmVyLWRlbGl2ZXJzLWFtYXpvbi1ib3guanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816367%2Fdelivery-driver-delivers-amazon-box.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><p>These three line items accounted for 64% of the business in the first quarter, showing just how important retail is for the company. And with its massive customer base, as well as sprawling infrastructure for logistics and shipping, I don't believe anyone will meaningfully disrupt Amazon anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三项业务在第一季度占公司总业务的 64%，显示出零售对公司的重要性。凭借其庞大的客户基础以及广泛的物流和运输基础设施，我认为在短期内没有人能够对亚马逊造成实质性的冲击。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, it is facing headwinds from uncertainty with tariffs. CEO Andy Jassy flatly said, &#34;None of us know exactly where tariffs will settle or when.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，它面临着来自关税的不确定性。首席执行官安迪·贾西明确表示：“我们都不知道关税究竟会落在哪里或何时落定。”</p>
</div><p>This lack of clarity unsettles some investors. But it's important to remember that tariffs are an industrywide headwind, meaning this situation is unlikely to disproportionately impact Amazon compared to its competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种不确定性让一些投资者感到不安。但重要的是要记住，关税是整个行业面临的阻力，这意味着这一情况不太可能对亚马逊造成比其竞争对手更大的影响。</p>
</div><p>In other words, its shareholders can expect the company to stay the course with its retail business. And this large, unchanging part of the business provides the stability it needs to keep forging ahead with something that will drive strong shareholder value in coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，股东可以期待公司在零售业务上保持稳定。而这一大而不变的业务部分为公司提供了所需的稳定性，使其能够继续推进将为未来几年带来强大股东价值的项目。</p>
</div><p>What will drive shareholder returns in coming years? I believe it will continue to be growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来几年将驱动股东回报的是什么？我相信将继续是亚马逊网络服务（AWS）的增长。</p>
</div><p>AWS, the cloud-computing division, has generated $112 billion in trailing-12-month net sales. But investors shouldn't think that growth is peaking simply because of its already gargantuan scale. It grew by another 17% in the first quarter, which is impressive on its own. And it doesn't begin to scratch the surface regarding its potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS，即云计算部门，在过去 12 个月中产生了 1120 亿美元的净销售额。但投资者不应认为由于其已经庞大的规模，增长就会达到顶峰。第一季度它又增长了 17%，这本身就令人印象深刻。而且这仅仅是其潜力的冰山一角。</p>
</div><p>Jassy points out that only about 15% of global spending on information technology (IT) is currently directed toward cloud computing. But within 20 years, he expects it will be closer to 85% of spending. In other words, AWS is a leading platform in the cloud-computing space, which Jassy expects to more than quintuple in size over the next two decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贾西指出，目前全球信息技术（IT）支出的约 15% 用于云计算。但在 20 年内，他预计这一比例将接近 85%。换句话说，AWS 是云计算领域的领先平台，贾西预计在未来 20 年内其规模将增长超过五倍。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, there's reason to continue to believe in the long-term growth potential for AWS. And right now, this growth is undeniably being driven by the trends in artificial intelligence (AI). According to management, Amazon's AI business is growing at a greater than 100% annual pace and is already generating billions of dollars in annual net sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，继续相信 AWS 的长期增长潜力是有理由的。而现在，这一增长无疑受到人工智能（AI）趋势的推动。根据管理层的说法，亚马逊的 AI 业务以超过 100% 的年增长率增长，已经产生了数十亿美元的年净销售额。</p>
</div><p>If the AI business was a stand-alone company, it would be one of the most talked about businesses in the world. But it's easy for investors to lose sight of it when looking through Amazon's empire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 AI 业务是一家独立公司，它将成为全球最受关注的企业之一。但在审视亚马逊的帝国时，投资者很容易忽视它。</p>
</div><p>To summarize, the company's main retail business will be fine, in spite of tariff headwinds. And AWS is poised for a decade or more of solid growth. That's important when looking at the stock as an investment. After all, AWS is extremely profitable. And higher future profits will likely lift the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总而言之，尽管面临关税阻力，但公司的主要零售业务将会很好。而 AWS 则有望在十年或更长时间内实现稳健增长。这在将股票视为投资时非常重要。毕竟，AWS 的盈利能力极强。未来更高的利润可能会推动股票上涨。</p>
</div><p>Just for perspective, the first-quarter operating margin for AWS was nearly 40%. And it accounted for 63% of the company's total first-quarter operating income. In short, it doesn't take much top-line growth for AWS to greatly improve the bottom line for the entire company. Therefore, as it grows, thanks to AI and a shift in IT spending to the cloud, Amazon's profits should grow dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅供参考，AWS 第一季度的营业利润率接近 40%。它占公司第一季度总营业收入的 63%。简而言之，AWS 只需很少的收入增长，就能大幅改善整个公司的底线。因此，随着其增长，得益于 AI 和 IT 支出向云端的转移，亚马逊的利润应该会大幅增长。</p>
</div><p>It might not show up immediately in 2025 -- patience is still important. But I'm comfortable in my belief that Amazon's profits will be meaningfully higher in five years, which will likely send the stock higher as well. And this is why I still believe it's a long-term buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能不会在 2025 年立即显现——耐心仍然很重要。但我相信，亚马逊的利润在五年内将显著提高，这也可能会推动股票上涨。这就是我仍然认为它是一个长期投资的原因。</p>
</div>

Is Amazon Stock a Long-Term Buy?

- 亚马逊在过去 20 年内的投资回报率始终为正。  
- 零售业务和云计算服务将推动未来的股东回报。  
- 尽管面临关税不确定性，亚马逊的长期增长潜力依然强劲。

亚马逊的股票是否适合长期投资？