<ul>
<li><em>比特币当前的形势既充满希望，也潜藏危险。</em></li>
<li><em>BTC 是在闪烁另一个牛市陷阱，还是这是全面挤压的准备？</em></li>
</ul>
<p>为了让比特币 [BTC] 保持牛市模式，它需要突破那些上方的阻力位。否则，正如 AMBCrypto 指出的，空头已经在盘旋，等待任何疲软迹象来大肆获利。</p>
<p>但重新夺回那些高价值价格节点可不是轻而易举的事。</p>
<p>历史上，突破的狂热往往会诱使弱势投资者提前获利，从而给空头提供了完美的下行流动性扫荡机会。</p>
<p>现在，随着 BTC 逼近 1 月底的高点约 $106,249，这种形势令人感到不安的熟悉。这是另一个精心设计的牛市陷阱的开始吗？</p>
<h2><strong>聚焦比特币的短期持有者群体</strong></h2>
<p>自从比特币突破 $93,000 阈值以来，短期持有者 MVRV（市场价值与实现价值比率）一直在稳步上升，持有时间超过 155 天的短期持有者在其头寸上获得了 +10% 的可观收益。</p>
<p>通俗来说，这些短期投资者正坐拥未实现的利润，他们的入场点远低于 BTC 当前的市场价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>回顾之前的周期，我们看到短期持有者 MVRV 在 BTC 于 11 月 21 日触及 $98,154 时达到峰值。</p>
<p>然而，反弹并没有止步于此。比特币在接下来的一个月中继续向 $106,000 迈进，吸收了压力。</p>
<p>但事情在这里变得糟糕。买方支持无法维持，短期持有者向市场注入流动性，导致 NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）进入深红区。</p>
<p>这次流动性倾泻触发了市场重置，BTC 最终在 4 月初收于 $76,270。</p>
<h2><strong>空头准备再次咆哮吗？</strong></h2>
<p>Coinglass 数据发出警告信号：比特币衍生品的未平仓合约（OI）已飙升至 $660 亿，反映出 BTC 在去年第四季度徘徊于 $104,000 范围时的水平。</p>
<p>这是一场高风险的游戏。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Coinglass</p>
<p>随着价格走势测试历史高点，短期持有者坐拥可观收益，未平仓合约升温，波动性的成分都已具备。</p>
<p>接下来的几天可能决定比特币的反弹是否真正有力，还是仅仅是另一个伪装的牛市陷阱。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币当前的情况既带来了机会，也伴随着风险，因为它接近关键的阻力位。分析师警告可能出现牛市陷阱，短期持有者享受着未实现的利润。历史模式表明，如果这些持有者抛售，可能会发生流动性抛售，导致市场重置。比特币衍生品的未平仓合约大幅增加，表明波动性加剧。接下来的几天将是决定比特币反弹是否可持续，还是仅仅是投资者的陷阱的关键时刻</p>

<ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s current setup carries both promise and peril.</em></li>
<li><em>Is BTC flashing another bull trap, or is this the setup for a full-blown squeeze?.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特币当前的形势既充满希望，也潜藏危险。</em></li>
<li><em>BTC 是在闪烁另一个牛市陷阱，还是这是全面挤压的准备？</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p>For Bitcoin [BTC] to stay in bull mode, it needs to crush those overhead resistance levels. Otherwise, as AMBCrypto pointed out, shorts are already circling, waiting to feast on any sign of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了让比特币 [BTC] 保持牛市模式，它需要突破那些上方的阻力位。否则，正如 AMBCrypto 指出的，空头已经在盘旋，等待任何疲软迹象来大肆获利。</p>
</div><p>But reclaiming those high-value price nodes won’t be a cakewalk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但重新夺回那些高价值价格节点可不是轻而易举的事。</p>
</div><p>Historically, breakout euphoria tends to bait weak hands into early profit-taking, giving bears the perfect setup for a downside liquidity sweep.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，突破的狂热往往会诱使弱势投资者提前获利，从而给空头提供了完美的下行流动性扫荡机会。</p>
</div><p>Now, with BTC knocking on the door of its late-January highs around $106,249, the setup is eerily familiar. Is this the beginning of yet another well-engineered bull trap?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，随着 BTC 逼近 1 月底的高点约 $106,249，这种形势令人感到不安的熟悉。这是另一个精心设计的牛市陷阱的开始吗？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Spotlighting Bitcoin’s STH cohort</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>聚焦比特币的短期持有者群体</strong></h2>
</div><p>Since Bitcoin tore through the $93k barrier, the STH MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) ratio has been steadily climbing, with short-term holders (&gt; 155 days) pocketing a cool +10% on their positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从比特币突破 $93,000 阈值以来，短期持有者 MVRV（市场价值与实现价值比率）一直在稳步上升，持有时间超过 155 天的短期持有者在其头寸上获得了 +10% 的可观收益。</p>
</div><p>In layman’s terms, these short-term players are sitting on unrealized profits, with their entry points comfortably below BTC’s current market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通俗来说，这些短期投资者正坐拥未实现的利润，他们的入场点远低于 BTC 当前的市场价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/glassnode-studio_btc-short-term-holder-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Looking back at the previous cycle, we saw the STH MVRV peak when BTC tapped $98,154 on the 21st of November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾之前的周期，我们看到短期持有者 MVRV 在 BTC 于 11 月 21 日触及 $98,154 时达到峰值。</p>
</div><p>However, the rally didn’t stop there. Bitcoin continued to inch its way to the $106k mark over the next month, absorbing the pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，反弹并没有止步于此。比特币在接下来的一个月中继续向 $106,000 迈进，吸收了压力。</p>
</div><p>But here’s where things went south. The bid-side support couldn’t hold the line, as these STHs flooded the market with liquidity, sending the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) into deep red territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但事情在这里变得糟糕。买方支持无法维持，短期持有者向市场注入流动性，导致 NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）进入深红区。</p>
</div><p>This liquidity dump triggered a market reset, with BTC ultimately closing at $76,270 by early April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次流动性倾泻触发了市场重置，BTC 最终在 4 月初收于 $76,270。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Are the bears ready to roar again?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>空头准备再次咆哮吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Coinglass data is flashing a cautionary signal: Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives has surged back to $66 billion, mirroring the levels seen when BTC was flirting with the $104k range last Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinglass 数据发出警告信号：比特币衍生品的未平仓合约（OI）已飙升至 $660 亿，反映出 BTC 在去年第四季度徘徊于 $104,000 范围时的水平。</p>
</div><p>It’s a high-stakes game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一场高风险的游戏。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-150305.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Coinglass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Coinglass</p>
</div><p>With price action testing historical ceilings, short-term holders sitting on decent gains, and Open Interest heating up, the ingredients for volatility are all in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着价格走势测试历史高点，短期持有者坐拥可观收益，未平仓合约升温，波动性的成分都已具备。</p>
</div><p>The next few days might just decide whether Bitcoin’s rally has real legs – or if it’s just another bull trap in disguise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来的几天可能决定比特币的反弹是否真正有力，还是仅仅是另一个伪装的牛市陷阱。</p>
</div>

比特币多头需警惕！——该价格可能成为高杠杆的陷阱门