<p>历史通常不会重演，但它常常会押韵。因此，投资者可以将过去发生的事情视为未来可能发生的指示。</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.62%) 股票似乎正在形成一种模式：在过去两年中，它在五月份都取得了大幅的价格上涨，而目前股票的走势让人想起了这两次跳升之前的情况。这可能是投资者现在买入的信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc2MDEvcGhvdG8tb2YtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1ncHVzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc2MDEvcGhvdG8tb2YtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1ncHVzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>新年，依旧的估值</h2>
<p>Nvidia 生产图形处理单元（GPU），这是任何希望执行可以从大量并行处理能力中受益的计算任务的绝佳工具——例如显示高分辨率视频游戏图形（它们最初设计的任务）和人工智能（AI）模型训练。</p>
<p>2023 年初，随着支持 AI 软件的数据中心建设竞赛的启动，GPU 的需求激增。这导致 Nvidia 在该年 5 月底报告了稳健的 2024 财年第一季度业绩并提供了令人印象深刻的 2024 财年第二季度指引后，股价大幅上涨。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>快进到 2024 年 5 月。在 Nvidia 已经发布了整整一年的惊人业绩后，市场不确定它是否能够保持增长率。然而，它又发布了一份令人印象深刻的 2024 财年第一季度报告，推动股价上涨。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>在 2025 年 5 月，我们看到类似的情况。投资者担心 Nvidia 无法维持他们习惯的增长速度——不过这次，他们的担忧是由于特朗普总统的关税和对美国经济放缓即将来临的恐惧。因此，股价在接近季度报告时远低于历史最高点，前瞻市盈率约为 26。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>这几乎正是 Nvidia 在过去两个五月的前瞻市盈率。然而，在报告了稳健的第一季度增长并对全年前景持乐观态度后，股价通常会开始交易在中 30 到中 40 的区间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。市盈率 = 市价与每股收益的比率。</p>
<p>由于当前的情况与过去两年几乎完全相同，我相当有信心 Nvidia 将在 5 月 28 日发布 2024 财年第一季度报告后经历一次大幅股价跳升，只要没有意外的公告或新挑战的揭示。</p>
<h2>第一季度将面临 55 亿美元的减记</h2>
<p>在今年第一季度，Nvidia 面临的一个逆风是美国政府决定限制哪些高端芯片可以出口到中国。由于出口规则的变化，Nvidia 不得不在本季度进行 55 亿美元的减记，这将影响其第一季度的收益。这些出口限制也可能拖累未来的需求。</p>
<p>然而，AI 超大规模公司的近期第一季度报告中的声明表明，尽管特朗普的关税带来了日益增加的宏观经济逆风，他们并没有改变对数据中心的巨额资本支出计划，这些计划主要是针对 AI 的。他们计划在云基础设施建设上花费数百亿美元，这应该能为 Nvidia 提供必要的增长，以证明其当前的估值。</p>
<p>Nvidia 认为，到 2028 年，数据中心的资本支出将达到每年 1 万亿美元，较 2024 年的约 4000 亿美元大幅增长。如果这一预测成真，那么 Nvidia 的股票仍然有大量的长期上涨空间。</p>
<p>但在短期内，Nvidia 的股票可能在 5 月 28 日发布收益后准备好进行一次大幅波动。考虑到这一点，以当前相对便宜的估值买入股票似乎是一个有利可图的举动。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票在历史上通常在五月份表现出显著的价格上涨，而当前的市场状况与往年相似。尽管由于关税和经济放缓而对增长存在担忧，但英伟达在 5 月 28 日发布的强劲财报可能会导致股价上涨。由于出口限制，该公司面临 55 亿美元的减记，但对与人工智能相关的数据中心投资的持续需求表明了长期增长潜力。在财报发布之前，投资者可能会发现当前的估值具有吸引力</p>

<p>History doesn't normally repeat itself, but it often rhymes. So investors can take what has happened in the past as an indicator of what might happen in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史通常不会重演，但它常常会押韵。因此，投资者可以将过去发生的事情视为未来可能发生的指示。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, a pattern seems to be developing with <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.62%) stock: It has made large price gains in May in each of the past two years, and the way the stock is set up right now is reminiscent of how it looked before both of those jumps. That could be a sign for investors to buy it now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，<strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.62%) 股票似乎正在形成一种模式：在过去两年中，它在五月份都取得了大幅的价格上涨，而目前股票的走势让人想起了这两次跳升之前的情况。这可能是投资者现在买入的信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc2MDEvcGhvdG8tb2YtZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd2l0aC1ncHVzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817601%2Fphoto-of-data-center-with-gpus.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>New year, same valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新年，依旧的估值</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs), which are fantastic tools for anyone looking to perform the types of computing tasks that can benefit from a lot of parallel processing power -- applications like displaying high-resolution video game graphics (the task they were originally designed for) and artificial intelligence (AI) model training.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 生产图形处理单元（GPU），这是任何希望执行可以从大量并行处理能力中受益的计算任务的绝佳工具——例如显示高分辨率视频游戏图形（它们最初设计的任务）和人工智能（AI）模型训练。</p>
</div><p>Demand for GPUs exploded in early 2023 as the race to build out data centers to support AI software kicked off. This led to a big jump in Nvidia's stock price in late May of that year after it reported solid first-quarter fiscal 2024 results and offered impressive guidance for fiscal Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年初，随着支持 AI 软件的数据中心建设竞赛的启动，GPU 的需求激增。这导致 Nvidia 在该年 5 月底报告了稳健的 2024 财年第一季度业绩并提供了令人印象深刻的 2024 财年第二季度指引后，股价大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4750d6acfd87e344fc3f23766dc238cb.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Fast-forward to May 2024. After Nvidia had already posted incredible results for an entire year, the market wasn't sure whether it could keep its growth rates up. However, it turned in another impressive fiscal Q1 report that sent the stock higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快进到 2024 年 5 月。在 Nvidia 已经发布了整整一年的惊人业绩后，市场不确定它是否能够保持增长率。然而，它又发布了一份令人印象深刻的 2024 财年第一季度报告，推动股价上涨。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f97f2c5538f9669e69abbbca10a05.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In May 2025, we're seeing a similar setup. Investors are worried that Nvidia won't be able to deliver the pace of growth they've become accustomed to -- though this time, their concerns are driven by factors such as President Donald Trump's tariffs and fears that a U.S. economic slowdown is imminent. As a result, it's heading toward that quarterly report well off its all-time high and trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio in the neighborhood of 26.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年 5 月，我们看到类似的情况。投资者担心 Nvidia 无法维持他们习惯的增长速度——不过这次，他们的担忧是由于特朗普总统的关税和对美国经济放缓即将来临的恐惧。因此，股价在接近季度报告时远低于历史最高点，前瞻市盈率约为 26。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7cf15257e1afd73becba5f938e0b9bc1.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That's almost exactly the forward PE that Nvidia was trading at during the past two Mays. However, after reporting solid Q1 growth and giving an upbeat outlook for the rest of the year, the stock often starts to trade in the mid-30s to mid-40s range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这几乎正是 Nvidia 在过去两个五月的前瞻市盈率。然而，在报告了稳健的第一季度增长并对全年前景持乐观态度后，股价通常会开始交易在中 30 到中 40 的区间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b5f5d7709aaa31257a9b357c44ada1de.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts。市盈率 = 市价与每股收益的比率。</p>
</div><p>Because the current setup is nearly identical to the last two years, I'm fairly confident that Nvidia will experience a big share price jump following its fiscal Q1 report on May 28, as long as there are no unexpected announcements or revelations regarding new challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于当前的情况与过去两年几乎完全相同，我相当有信心 Nvidia 将在 5 月 28 日发布 2024 财年第一季度报告后经历一次大幅股价跳升，只要没有意外的公告或新挑战的揭示。</p>
</div><h2>Q1 will feature a $5.5 billion write-off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第一季度将面临 55 亿美元的减记</h2>
</div><p>One headwind for Nvidia that appeared during this year's Q1 was the U.S. government's decision to limit which high-end chips can be exported to China. Because the export rules changed, Nvidia had to take a $5.5 billion writedown this quarter, which will affect its Q1 earnings. Those export restrictions could also drag on future demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年第一季度，Nvidia 面临的一个逆风是美国政府决定限制哪些高端芯片可以出口到中国。由于出口规则的变化，Nvidia 不得不在本季度进行 55 亿美元的减记，这将影响其第一季度的收益。这些出口限制也可能拖累未来的需求。</p>
</div><p>However, the statements by AI hyperscalers in their own recent Q1 reports indicated that they haven't changed their massive capital expenditure plans for data centers, mostly geared toward AI, despite the increasing macroeconomic headwinds generated by Trump's tariffs. The tens of billions of dollars they plan to spend on cloud infrastructure build-outs should give Nvidia the growth necessary to justify its current valuation and then some.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，AI 超大规模公司的近期第一季度报告中的声明表明，尽管特朗普的关税带来了日益增加的宏观经济逆风，他们并没有改变对数据中心的巨额资本支出计划，这些计划主要是针对 AI 的。他们计划在云基础设施建设上花费数百亿美元，这应该能为 Nvidia 提供必要的增长，以证明其当前的估值。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia believes data center capital expenditures will reach $1 trillion annually by 2028, up from around $400 billion in 2024. If that turns out to be true, then there should still be a ton of long-term upside left in Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 认为，到 2028 年，数据中心的资本支出将达到每年 1 万亿美元，较 2024 年的约 4000 亿美元大幅增长。如果这一预测成真，那么 Nvidia 的股票仍然有大量的长期上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>But in the near term, Nvidia's stock may be primed for a big move after it reports earnings on May 28. With that in mind, picking up shares at their current fairly cheap valuation looks like it would be a lucrative move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在短期内，Nvidia 的股票可能在 5 月 28 日发布收益后准备好进行一次大幅波动。考虑到这一点，以当前相对便宜的估值买入股票似乎是一个有利可图的举动。</p>
</div>

History Says Now Is the Time to Buy Nvidia Stock

- Nvidia 股票在过去两年五月均有大幅上涨，当前形势相似。  
- 受限于出口规则，Nvidia 本季度将面临 55 亿美元的减记。  
- 尽管存在短期挑战，长期增长潜力依然可观，投资者可考虑当前低估值买入。

历史告诉我们，现在是购买英伟达股票的好时机