<p>快讯 - 苹果的中国脱毒之路痛苦且早该进行</p><p>作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表她本人。</p><p>作者：Robyn Mak</p><p>香港，5 月 12 日（路透社 Breakingviews）- 苹果的成功依赖于 iPhone。这款盈利的口袋设备帮助苹果从个人电脑行业的一个小角色成长为全球最大的公司之一，市值接近 3 万亿美元。这在很大程度上归功于其在中国的供应链。如今，地缘政治紧张局势和贸易战使这种依赖关系受到质疑。</p><p>中华人民共和国在公司崛起中所扮演的角色是《苹果在中国：世界最大公司的捕获》的重点。这本书的作者是为《金融时报》报道苹果的 Patrick McGee，他通过对 200 多位前高管和工程师的访谈，以及其他材料，提供了一个引人入胜的故事，讲述了苹果如何依赖中国供应商生产大部分产品，以及中国消费者去年占其销售额的 17%。现在，苹果正在努力开发其他制造基地，其历史对这两个经济体以及特斯拉等其他大型制造商具有重要的启示。</p><p>苹果进入中华人民共和国的可能性离不开台湾的富士康，正式名称为鸿海精密工业 2317.TW。由企业家郭台铭创立的这家合同制造商及其同行在 1990 年代中期通过在大陆建立工厂，塑造了中国以出口为驱动的模式。他们能够做到这一点，是通过与地方官员 “密切合作”，受益于补贴、基础设施，以及来自农村地区的廉价移民劳动力的流入。麦基写道，苹果称郭为 “老郭”，他因其政治智慧而脱颖而出。“他们对他进行了大量补贴，” 他引用了一位当时的苹果高管匿名说道。</p><p>该公司于 1999 年首次与富士康密切合作，外包 iMac 的生产，几年后又外包了 iPod 的生产。得益于富士康快速大规模组装产品的能力，苹果在 2005 年发货了 2250 万台便携式音乐播放器，而 2003 年这一数字还不到 100 万台。</p><p>苹果在中国的到来与其他大型公司的情况不同。来自韩国三星电子 005930.KS 到德国汽车制造商大众汽车 VOWG.DE 的跨国公司此前已设立了全资外商企业或当地合资企业。北京的赌注是这将促进技术向当地合作伙伴的转移——尽管这种情况很少发生。</p><p>苹果既没有合资企业，也没有建立自己的运营。相反，它投资并教会许多当地公司如何提供零部件和制造其产品。这使得苹果能够避免过于依赖少数关键供应商，从而提高了其议价能力。根据麦基在书中引用的出生于中国的美联储经济学家易文的说法，这也导致了 “在制造艺术、组织实际事务以及人们生产、分配、旅行、沟通和消费方式上的巨大知识转移”。毫不夸张地说，苹果引领了全球最复杂的制造供应链的发展，同时也帮助催生了从华为到小米 1810.HK 等竞争对手的中国智能手机品牌。</p><p>这一战略以牺牲台湾公司为代价。得益于这家 iPhone 制造商的支持，像立讯精密工业 002475.SZ 和比亚迪电子国际 0285.HK 等大陆中国企业逐渐占据了苹果日益 “红色” 的供应链的更大份额。这种压力在富士康的营业利润率中显而易见，去年其利润率缩水至仅 2.8%，而十年前接近 11%。</p><p>但自 2012 年习近平上台以来，中国领导人加强了对经济的控制，包括对私营部门和外资跨国公司的控制。2015 年，他推出了 “2025 中国制造” 计划，以使国家摆脱对外国技术的依赖。尽管有迹象表明在中国做生意的政治风险在上升，首席执行官蒂姆·库克却加倍下注。苹果在全国范围内建立了研究和数据中心，禁止北京不喜欢的应用程序在其中国 App Store 中上架，甚至投资了打车公司滴滴出行 92Sy.D。</p><p>特朗普总统的贸易战威胁到这种关系。到目前为止，北京尚未对苹果进行报复，即使与华盛顿的关系恶化。中国官员有充分的理由保持克制。例如，库克声称这家库比蒂诺巨头支持 500 万个国内就业岗位，其中超过一半在制造业。针对一家大型外资公司将吓跑其他投资者，并削弱中国声称对外开放的立场。尽管习近平推动自给自足，中国仍然需要西方的技术和资本。即使是华为等强大的本土竞争对手的崛起，也尚未削弱苹果的前景，Visible Alpha 的分析师预计苹果在 2027 年将在大中华区获得 770 亿美元的销售额。</p><p>尽管中国的智能手机出口目前免于美国关税，并且双方在周一推迟了大部分关税，但显然，苹果依赖一个国家进行制造的模式是不可持续的。库克一直在加大努力以多元化供应链：他认为到今年第三季度，所有面向美国的产品中 “绝大多数” 将会在印度和越南生产。该公司还承诺在未来四年内在美国投资超过 5000 亿美元，以回应特朗普将投资带回美国的呼吁。从长远来看，这将意味着更高的成本，即使在考虑关税之前：例如，在印度制造手机的成本可能比在中国高出多达 10%，路透社上个月援引消息人士报道。美国制造更是难以实现。Wedbush Securities 的分析师丹·艾夫斯认为，一部美国制造的 iPhone 可能会让消费者花费 3500 美元，超过目前价格的三倍。</p><p>随着时间的推移，苹果的制造布局可能会类似于特斯拉：埃隆·马斯克的电动车制造商在美国、德国和中国分布了其工厂。更不确定的是华盛顿对继续支持和投资中国供应商的容忍度。国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥曾警告苹果 “玩火”，指的是该公司现在已取消与长江存储科技合作的计划。随着苹果向人工智能领域推进，而特斯拉则谈论建设类人机器人，华盛顿将密切关注这两家公司在中国的运营。</p><p>苹果可能还有一些时间来完成其迫切需要的中国脱毒。然而，这必然会是一个痛苦的过程。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果对中国供应链和消费市场的依赖因地缘政治紧张局势而受到审视。帕特里克·麦基的书《苹果在中国》探讨了苹果如何依赖中国供应商和消费者，从而促进其增长。尽管面临挑战，包括中国政府的日益控制和贸易战，苹果仍继续在中国投资，支持数百万个就业岗位。然而，该公司的战略导致了来自本土品牌的竞争加剧，以及对台湾供应商如富士康的利润下降</p>

<p>BREAKINGVIEWS-Apple’s China detox is painful and overdue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快讯 - 苹果的中国脱毒之路痛苦且早该进行</p>
</div><p>The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者是路透社 Breakingviews 专栏作家。所表达的观点仅代表她本人。</p>
</div><p>By Robyn Mak</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Robyn Mak</p>
</div><p>HONG KONG, May 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Apple’s AAPL.O success rests on the iPhone. The profitable pocket device helped turn it from a niche player in the personal computer industry into one of world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation of almost $3 trillion. Much of that was due to its supply chain in China. Now geopolitical tensions and trade wars are calling that dependence into question.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港，5 月 12 日（路透社 Breakingviews）- 苹果的成功依赖于 iPhone。这款盈利的口袋设备帮助苹果从个人电脑行业的一个小角色成长为全球最大的公司之一，市值接近 3 万亿美元。这在很大程度上归功于其在中国的供应链。如今，地缘政治紧张局势和贸易战使这种依赖关系受到质疑。</p>
</div><p>The role the People’s Republic played in the company’s rise is the focus of &#34;Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company&#34;. The book by Patrick McGee, who covered the company for the Financial Times, draws on more than 200 interviews with former executives and engineers – as well as other material - to provide a riveting account of how Apple came to depend on Chinese suppliers for most of its products and Chinese consumers for 17% of its sales last year. Now that it is scrambling to develop other manufacturing bases, its history holds important lessons for the two economies – and for other big manufacturers like Tesla TSLA.O.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中华人民共和国在公司崛起中所扮演的角色是《苹果在中国：世界最大公司的捕获》的重点。这本书的作者是为《金融时报》报道苹果的 Patrick McGee，他通过对 200 多位前高管和工程师的访谈，以及其他材料，提供了一个引人入胜的故事，讲述了苹果如何依赖中国供应商生产大部分产品，以及中国消费者去年占其销售额的 17%。现在，苹果正在努力开发其他制造基地，其历史对这两个经济体以及特斯拉等其他大型制造商具有重要的启示。</p>
</div><p>Apple's entry into the People's Republic would not have been possible without Taiwan's Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry 2317.TW. Founded by entrepreneur Terry Gou, the contract manufacturer and its peers were instrumental in shaping China's export-driven model in the mid-1990s by establishing factories on the mainland. They were able to do so by working &#34;hand in glove&#34; with local officials, benefitting from subsidies, infrastructure, and critically, flows of cheap migrant labourers from rural areas. &#34;Uncle Terry&#34;, as Apple came to know Gou, stood out due to his political savvy, McGee writes. &#34;They subsidised the shit out of him&#34;, he quotes one senior Apple executive at the time anonymously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果进入中华人民共和国的可能性离不开台湾的富士康，正式名称为鸿海精密工业 2317.TW。由企业家郭台铭创立的这家合同制造商及其同行在 1990 年代中期通过在大陆建立工厂，塑造了中国以出口为驱动的模式。他们能够做到这一点，是通过与地方官员 “密切合作”，受益于补贴、基础设施，以及来自农村地区的廉价移民劳动力的流入。麦基写道，苹果称郭为 “老郭”，他因其政治智慧而脱颖而出。“他们对他进行了大量补贴，” 他引用了一位当时的苹果高管匿名说道。</p>
</div><p>The company first started working closely with Foxconn in 1999, outsourcing production of iMacs and then, a few years later, the iPod. Thanks to Foxconn's ability to assemble products at speed and scale, Apple shipped 22.5 million of the portable music players in 2005, up from less than 1 million in 2003.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司于 1999 年首次与富士康密切合作，外包 iMac 的生产，几年后又外包了 iPod 的生产。得益于富士康快速大规模组装产品的能力，苹果在 2005 年发货了 2250 万台便携式音乐播放器，而 2003 年这一数字还不到 100 万台。</p>
</div><p>Apple’s arrival in China differed from that of other large companies. Multinationals from South Korea's Samsung Electronics 005930.KS to German automaker Volkswagen VOWG.DE had previously set up wholly-owned foreign enterprises or local joint ventures. Beijing's bet was that this would facilitate the transfer of technology to local partners - though that rarely happened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在中国的到来与其他大型公司的情况不同。来自韩国三星电子 005930.KS 到德国汽车制造商大众汽车 VOWG.DE 的跨国公司此前已设立了全资外商企业或当地合资企业。北京的赌注是这将促进技术向当地合作伙伴的转移——尽管这种情况很少发生。</p>
</div><p>Apple had neither a joint venture nor established its own operations. Instead, it invested in and taught many local companies how to supply parts for and make its products. This allowed it to avoid being too dependent on a handful of key suppliers, improving its bargaining power. It also resulted in an epic transfer of know-how &#34;in the art of making things, in organising practical matters, and in the way people produce, distribute, travel, communicate, and consume&#34;, according to China-born Federal Reserve economist Yi Wen, who McGee quotes in the book. It is not an exaggeration to say Apple spearheaded the development of the world's most sophisticated manufacturing supply chain, while also helping to spawn rival Chinese smartphone brands from Huawei to Xiaomi 1810.HK.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果既没有合资企业，也没有建立自己的运营。相反，它投资并教会许多当地公司如何提供零部件和制造其产品。这使得苹果能够避免过于依赖少数关键供应商，从而提高了其议价能力。根据麦基在书中引用的出生于中国的美联储经济学家易文的说法，这也导致了 “在制造艺术、组织实际事务以及人们生产、分配、旅行、沟通和消费方式上的巨大知识转移”。毫不夸张地说，苹果引领了全球最复杂的制造供应链的发展，同时也帮助催生了从华为到小米 1810.HK 等竞争对手的中国智能手机品牌。</p>
</div><p>This strategy came at the expense of Taiwanese firms. Thanks to the iPhone-maker's support, mainland Chinese groups like Luxshare Precision Industry 002475.SZ and BYD Electronic International 0285.HK slowly captured an even larger share of Apple's increasingly &#34;red&#34; supply chain. The squeeze is evident in Foxconn's operating profit margin, which last year had shrivelled to a razor-thin 2.8%, from nearly 11% a decade earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一战略以牺牲台湾公司为代价。得益于这家 iPhone 制造商的支持，像立讯精密工业 002475.SZ 和比亚迪电子国际 0285.HK 等大陆中国企业逐渐占据了苹果日益 “红色” 的供应链的更大份额。这种压力在富士康的营业利润率中显而易见，去年其利润率缩水至仅 2.8%，而十年前接近 11%。</p>
</div><p>But since Xi Jinping's ascendancy in 2012, the Chinese leader has tightened the state's grip over the economy, including the private sector and foreign multinationals. In 2015 he unveiled the “Made in China 2025” plan to wean the country off foreign technology. Despite signs that political risks of doing business in China were rising, CEO Tim Cook doubled down. Apple built research and data centres across the country, banned apps that Beijing disliked from its Chinese App Store, and even invested in ride-hailing firm Didi Global 92Sy.D.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自 2012 年习近平上台以来，中国领导人加强了对经济的控制，包括对私营部门和外资跨国公司的控制。2015 年，他推出了 “2025 中国制造” 计划，以使国家摆脱对外国技术的依赖。尽管有迹象表明在中国做生意的政治风险在上升，首席执行官蒂姆·库克却加倍下注。苹果在全国范围内建立了研究和数据中心，禁止北京不喜欢的应用程序在其中国 App Store 中上架，甚至投资了打车公司滴滴出行 92Sy.D。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump’s trade war threatens to upend this relationship. So far, Beijing has refrained from retaliating against Apple, even as relations with Washington deteriorate. Chinese officials have good reasons to hold back. Cook, for instance, claims the Cupertino giant supports 5 million domestic jobs, over half of which are in manufacturing. Targeting a big foreign company would scare off other investors and undermine the country's claim to be open for business. Despite Xi's push for self-sufficiency, China still needs Western tech and capital. Even the rise of formidable local rivals like Huawei have yet to dent Apple's prospects, with analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect Apple to rake in $77 billion of sales in Greater China in 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统的贸易战威胁到这种关系。到目前为止，北京尚未对苹果进行报复，即使与华盛顿的关系恶化。中国官员有充分的理由保持克制。例如，库克声称这家库比蒂诺巨头支持 500 万个国内就业岗位，其中超过一半在制造业。针对一家大型外资公司将吓跑其他投资者，并削弱中国声称对外开放的立场。尽管习近平推动自给自足，中国仍然需要西方的技术和资本。即使是华为等强大的本土竞争对手的崛起，也尚未削弱苹果的前景，Visible Alpha 的分析师预计苹果在 2027 年将在大中华区获得 770 亿美元的销售额。</p>
</div><p>Though exports of smartphones from China are currently exempt from U.S. tariffs, and the two sides on Monday postponed most of their levies, it is clear that Apple's model of relying on one country for manufacturing is unsustainable. Cook has been stepping up efforts to diversify his supply chains: he reckons &#34;the majority&#34; of all U.S.-bound products will be made in India and Vietnam by the third quarter this year. The company has also pledged to spend more than $500 billion in the United States over the next four years to appease Trump's calls to bring investment back home. Over the long term, this will mean higher costs, even before factoring in tariffs: making handsets in India, for example, can be as much as 10% higher than in China, Reuters reported last month, citing sources. Manufacturing in the U.S. is even more far-fetched. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives reckons an American-made iPhone could set consumers back $3,500, more than three times the current price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管中国的智能手机出口目前免于美国关税，并且双方在周一推迟了大部分关税，但显然，苹果依赖一个国家进行制造的模式是不可持续的。库克一直在加大努力以多元化供应链：他认为到今年第三季度，所有面向美国的产品中 “绝大多数” 将会在印度和越南生产。该公司还承诺在未来四年内在美国投资超过 5000 亿美元，以回应特朗普将投资带回美国的呼吁。从长远来看，这将意味着更高的成本，即使在考虑关税之前：例如，在印度制造手机的成本可能比在中国高出多达 10%，路透社上个月援引消息人士报道。美国制造更是难以实现。Wedbush Securities 的分析师丹·艾夫斯认为，一部美国制造的 iPhone 可能会让消费者花费 3500 美元，超过目前价格的三倍。</p>
</div><p>Over time, Apple’s manufacturing footprint might resemble that of Tesla: Elon Musk’s electric carmaker has spread its factories across the United States, Germany and China. More uncertain is Washington's tolerance for continued support and investments in Chinese suppliers. Secretary of State Marco Rubio once warned that Apple was “playing with fire&#34;, referring to the company's now-cancelled plans to work with Yangtze Memory Technologies, a state-backed memory chip maker. As Apple pushes into artificial intelligence while Tesla talks up the prospects of building humanoid robots, Washington will be watching both companies’ Chinese operations closely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着时间的推移，苹果的制造布局可能会类似于特斯拉：埃隆·马斯克的电动车制造商在美国、德国和中国分布了其工厂。更不确定的是华盛顿对继续支持和投资中国供应商的容忍度。国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥曾警告苹果 “玩火”，指的是该公司现在已取消与长江存储科技合作的计划。随着苹果向人工智能领域推进，而特斯拉则谈论建设类人机器人，华盛顿将密切关注这两家公司在中国的运营。</p>
</div><p>Apple may have some time to pull off its overdue China detox. Even so, it’s bound to be painful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果可能还有一些时间来完成其迫切需要的中国脱毒。然而，这必然会是一个痛苦的过程。</p>
</div><p>Follow @mak_robyn on X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 X 上关注 @mak_robyn</p>
</div><p>Apple's iPhone production has soared thanks to Chinese supply chains https://reut.rs/3ZbbuVM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于中国供应链，苹果的 iPhone 生产量激增 https://reut.rs/3ZbbuVM</p>
</div><p>Apple's smartphone profit dominance came at the expense of suppliers https://reut.rs/3F4FewI</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的智能手机利润主导地位是以牺牲供应商为代价的 https://reut.rs/3F4FewI</p>
</div><p>Apple's China stakes are getting higher https://reut.rs/4mjqsTN</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在中国的投资风险越来越高 https://reut.rs/4mjqsTN</p>
</div><p>(Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Streisand Neto)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：彼得·塔尔·拉尔森和斯特雷桑德·内托）</p>
</div><p>((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on MAK/</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（有关作者的前几篇专栏，路透社客户可以点击 MAK/</p>
</div><p>robyn.mak@thomsonreuters.com))</p>
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BREAKINGVIEWS-Apple’s China detox is painful and overdue

- 苹果的成功依赖于 iPhone 和中国供应链。  
- 书籍《苹果在中国》探讨了苹果如何依赖中国供应商。  
- 苹果正努力多元化供应链，以应对地缘政治风险。

突发观点——苹果在中国市场的调整是痛苦且早该进行的