<p>尽管在这个过程中波动很大，但无法否认 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 6.68%）长期的股价表现。在过去十年中，股价飙升了 1790%。2015 年 5 月投资 1000 美元，今天的价值将达到 18910 美元。</p>
<p>得益于在汽车行业的成功，特斯拉已成为全球最有价值的企业之一。但这家电动车（EV）公司的股价目前比峰值低 38%——这一下跌可能让一些投资者思考这是否是一个买入的机会。</p>
<p>你今天应该将 1000 美元分配到特斯拉股票上，并持有 20 年吗？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU5MjQvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU5MjQvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一条坎坷的道路</h2>
<p>特斯拉在达到这一点上值得给予大量赞誉。对技术、创新、软件和制造能力的高度关注导致了快速增长，使得该公司颠覆了汽车行业，成为一个强大的全球品牌。特斯拉基本上启动了我们今天所知的电动车市场，这无疑推动了多年来的股价上涨。</p>
<p>然而，情况已经发生了戏剧性的变化。公司的巨大增长和盈利能力提升的日子已经成为过去。特斯拉现在是一家挣扎中的汽车制造商。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第一季度，其汽车销售同比下降 20%，降至 140 亿美元。这一下滑部分归因于生产减少，因为其工厂正在重新调整以交付更新版的 2025 款 Model Y。但由于竞争压力导致的售价降低也产生了影响，这一逆风在上个季度并不新鲜。公司的营业收入在第一季度暴跌了 66%。</p>
<p>显然，特斯拉不能指望自己是唯一的电动车参与者。竞争非常激烈，消费者的选择权增强。此外，更高的利率也表明特斯拉面临周期性压力，因为当购买新车变得对消费者来说不那么负担得起时，需求将受到影响。</p>
<p>所有这些都得出一个结论：投资者不应期待特斯拉在未来能实现过去那种令人难以置信的增长。值得一提的是，分析师的共识预期是，特斯拉的收入将在 2024 年至 2027 年间以 13.4% 的年复合增长率增长，这一增长率远低于过去 10 年的水平。</p>
<h2>对愿景的乐观</h2>
<p>只有对马斯克的愿景极为乐观的投资者——即对特斯拉未来可能成为的样子，而非现在的样子——才应考虑现在购买该股票。也许在 20 年后，这项投资会有所回报，前提是该企业能够产生大量的收入和自由现金流。特斯拉最强大的支持者相信这将会发生。</p>
<p>这一前景基于特斯拉能够兑现其向大众推出更强大自动驾驶技术的承诺。这个过程的第一步将在下个月进行，当时它将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出其机器人出租车服务。马斯克打算在年底之前将该服务扩展到更多美国城市。</p>
<p>但特斯拉在尝试推出全球机器人出租车车队时的表现是无法预测的。每个市场都有不同的法规需要解决。当然，在实现完全自动驾驶车辆的过程中仍然存在重大技术障碍。而也许最具挑战性的障碍是说服普通消费者信任一辆没有司机的汽车。</p>
<p>特斯拉目前的估值表明，投资者认为这一结果是可能的。它的市盈率为 164。这对于一家正在经历财务打击的公司来说是一个荒谬的价格——除非你对其长期前景持高度乐观态度。</p>
<p>像特斯拉这样努力推动边界并对社会产生积极影响的企业屈指可数。但关于它未来的表现仍然存在很多不确定性。</p>
<p>因此，我持怀疑态度。基于公司目前的状况和股票的高估值，我认为最好避免投资特斯拉。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票在过去十年中上涨了 1790%，但目前比峰值低 38%。该公司面临着车辆销售下降 20% 和 2025 年第一季度营业收入下降 66% 的挑战。分析师预测 2024 年至 2027 年期间的收入增长率将放缓至 13.4%。投资者应保持谨慎，因为特斯拉的高估值和竞争压力表明未来显著增长的不确定性。只有对特斯拉长期愿景极为看好的投资者才应考虑现在投资</p>

<p>Despite how volatile it has been along the way, it's impossible to deny <strong>Tesla</strong>'s (TSLA 6.68%) long-term share price performance. Over the past decade, the stock has rocketed 1,790% higher. A $1,000 investment made in May 2015 would be worth $18,910 today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管在这个过程中波动很大，但无法否认 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 6.68%）长期的股价表现。在过去十年中，股价飙升了 1790%。2015 年 5 月投资 1000 美元，今天的价值将达到 18910 美元。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to its success in the auto industry, Tesla has become one of the most valuable businesses in the world. But the electric vehicle (EV) stock is now 38% below its peak -- a tumble that might have some investors wondering whether this is an opportunity to buy the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于在汽车行业的成功，特斯拉已成为全球最有价值的企业之一。但这家电动车（EV）公司的股价目前比峰值低 38%——这一下跌可能让一些投资者思考这是否是一个买入的机会。</p>
</div><p>Should you allocate $1,000 to Tesla shares today and hold them for the next 20 years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你今天应该将 1000 美元分配到特斯拉股票上，并持有 20 年吗？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTU5MjQvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F815924%2F4-teslas-in-a-parking-lot-at-a-charger-station.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image Source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A bumpy road</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一条坎坷的道路</h2>
</div><p>Tesla deserves a ton of credit for getting to this point. An intense focus on technology, innovation, software, and manufacturing prowess led to rapid growth, with the business disrupting the auto industry and becoming a powerful global brand. Tesla essentially launched the EV market as we know it today, which certainly propelled the stock price over the years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在达到这一点上值得给予大量赞誉。对技术、创新、软件和制造能力的高度关注导致了快速增长，使得该公司颠覆了汽车行业，成为一个强大的全球品牌。特斯拉基本上启动了我们今天所知的电动车市场，这无疑推动了多年来的股价上涨。</p>
</div><p>However, the situation has changed dramatically. The company's days of monster growth and improving profitability are a thing of the past. Tesla is now a struggling automaker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，情况已经发生了戏剧性的变化。公司的巨大增长和盈利能力提升的日子已经成为过去。特斯拉现在是一家挣扎中的汽车制造商。</p>
</div><p>During the first three months of 2025, its vehicle sales declined 20% year over year to $14 billion. Part of the blame for that slide goes to reduced production as its factories retooled to deliver the updated 2025 Model Y. But lower selling prices due to competitive forces also had an impact, a headwind that wasn't new last quarter. The company's operating income tanked by 66% in Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第一季度，其汽车销售同比下降 20%，降至 140 亿美元。这一下滑部分归因于生产减少，因为其工厂正在重新调整以交付更新版的 2025 款 Model Y。但由于竞争压力导致的售价降低也产生了影响，这一逆风在上个季度并不新鲜。公司的营业收入在第一季度暴跌了 66%。</p>
</div><p>It's clear that Tesla can't bank on being the only EV player in town. Competition is fierce, putting more power into the hands of consumers. What's more, higher interest rates point to the cyclicality Tesla faces, as demand will be pressured when buying a new car becomes less affordable for customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，特斯拉不能指望自己是唯一的电动车参与者。竞争非常激烈，消费者的选择权增强。此外，更高的利率也表明特斯拉面临周期性压力，因为当购买新车变得对消费者来说不那么负担得起时，需求将受到影响。</p>
</div><p>All of this leads to the conclusion that investors should not expect Tesla in the future to deliver the type of incredible growth it did in the past. For what it's worth, analysts' consensus estimates are that its revenue will increase at a compound annual rate of 13.4% between 2024 and 2027, which is a much lower growth rate than its clip over the past 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都得出一个结论：投资者不应期待特斯拉在未来能实现过去那种令人难以置信的增长。值得一提的是，分析师的共识预期是，特斯拉的收入将在 2024 年至 2027 年间以 13.4% 的年复合增长率增长，这一增长率远低于过去 10 年的水平。</p>
</div><h2>Bullish on the vision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对愿景的乐观</h2>
</div><p>Only investors who are extremely bullish on Musk's vision for what Tesla could become one day -- as opposed to what it is today -- should consider buying the stock right now. Perhaps in 20 years, the investment could work out, with the hope that the business is generating massive amounts of revenue and free cash flow. Tesla's strongest supporters believe this will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有对马斯克的愿景极为乐观的投资者——即对特斯拉未来可能成为的样子，而非现在的样子——才应考虑现在购买该股票。也许在 20 年后，这项投资会有所回报，前提是该企业能够产生大量的收入和自由现金流。特斯拉最强大的支持者相信这将会发生。</p>
</div><p>That outlook is based on the premise that Tesla will make good on its promise of introducing a more robust autonomous vehicle technology to the masses. The first step in that process will happen next month, when it will launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Musk intends to bring the service to more U.S. cities by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一前景基于特斯拉能够兑现其向大众推出更强大自动驾驶技术的承诺。这个过程的第一步将在下个月进行，当时它将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出其机器人出租车服务。马斯克打算在年底之前将该服务扩展到更多美国城市。</p>
</div><p>But how Tesla will fare in its attempt to launch a worldwide robotaxi fleet is impossible to predict. Every market has different regulations that need to be addressed. Of course, there remain significant technical hurdles on the route to fully self-driving vehicles. And maybe the most challenging hurdle will be to convince the average consumer to trust a vehicle that has no driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特斯拉在尝试推出全球机器人出租车车队时的表现是无法预测的。每个市场都有不同的法规需要解决。当然，在实现完全自动驾驶车辆的过程中仍然存在重大技术障碍。而也许最具挑战性的障碍是说服普通消费者信任一辆没有司机的汽车。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's current valuation indicates that investors view this outcome as likely. It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 164. That's a ridiculous price to pay for a company that is in the midst of taking a financial hit -- unless you're highly optimistic about its longer-term prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉目前的估值表明，投资者认为这一结果是可能的。它的市盈率为 164。这对于一家正在经历财务打击的公司来说是一个荒谬的价格——除非你对其长期前景持高度乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>There are few businesses trying to push the envelope and make a positive impact on society like Tesla is. But there is a lot of uncertainty about how it might fare from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像特斯拉这样努力推动边界并对社会产生积极影响的企业屈指可数。但关于它未来的表现仍然存在很多不确定性。</p>
</div><p>So, I take the skeptical view. Based on what the company looks like today and the stock's lofty valuation, I think it would be best to avoid investing in Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我持怀疑态度。基于公司目前的状况和股票的高估值，我认为最好避免投资特斯拉。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Tesla Stock With $1,000 and Hold for 20 Years?

- 特斯拉股价在过去十年上涨了 1,790%。
- 2025 年第一季度，特斯拉汽车销量同比下降 20%。
- 分析师预计 2024 至 2027 年收入年均增长率为 13.4%。

是否应该用 1000 美元购买特斯拉股票并持有 20 年？