<p>RPT-专栏 - 四月市场混乱的意义何在？：麦基弗</p><p>作者：杰米·麦基弗</p><p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，5 月 13 日（路透社）- 美国总统特朗普的贸易战所造成的不确定性迷雾正在突然消散，尽管对其长期经济影响的怀疑仍将持续。还有另一个问题：所有的 “解放日” 混乱和困惑究竟有什么意义？</p><p>自 1980 年代以来一直倡导关税的特朗普在竞选期间明确表示，他打算大幅提高进口税。作为自称的 “关税人”，他坚决主张关税将有助于增加联邦收入，振兴美国制造业，并减少国家巨大的贸易赤字。</p><p>人们可以争论他议程的经济优点，但没有人可以真心地对他所做的事情感到惊讶。但即使是特朗普的一些热心支持者也在质疑这一策略和实施。</p><p>其目的是制造经济和市场混乱，以便在与美国贸易伙伴的谈判中获得最大杠杆，从而为华盛顿在后续贸易谈判中争取最有利的条件吗？</p><p>也许吧。短期内确实造成了混乱，在 “解放日” 后的三天内，美国股票市值蒸发了约 6 万亿美元。但现在交易正在达成，所有这些损失都已被抹去——当然，除了那些受到惊吓而卖出股票的投资者。</p><p>但在经历了这一切之后，目前尚不清楚这些交易所产生的关税——这些关税可能远低于几周前提出的极端数字——是否足够显著，以在美国贸易赤字上产生实质性影响。</p><p>在财政方面，今年迄今为止宣布的所有关税预计将在 2026-2035 年间为联邦收入增加 2.7 万亿美元，较美国与中国在日内瓦达成 “休战” 前的 2.4 万亿美元有所上升，耶鲁预算实验室指出，天价关税远非 “收入最优”。过去几周的动荡是否值得每年多出 300 亿美元，或占 GDP 的 0.1%？</p><p>当然，2.7 万亿美元不是小数目，但这也是有代价的。耶鲁预算实验室还估计，关税将使美国今年的实际 GDP 增长减少 0.7 个百分点，从长远来看，美国经济将永久性地缩小 0.4 个百分点。经济学家认为，全国商品的价格水平也将永久性提高。</p><p>估计各不相同，但普遍观点是，全球平均有效关税率将在 13% 到 18% 之间，较周末休战前下降 10 个百分点，但仍是自第二次世界大战以来的最高水平，且显著高于去年年底的 2.3%。</p><p>与此同时，美国消费者和商业信心已降至历史最低水平之一，消费者通胀预期则是几十年来的最高。这些指标在未来几个月可能会改善，但由于不确定性，许多支出和投资已被搁置，可能不会那么快恢复。</p><p>持久的损害</p><p>也许最重要的是，美国信誉所遭受的损害并没有因为资产价格的反弹而消失。</p><p>记住 “解放日” 数据背后的方法论，这些数据对世界上最贫穷国家征收了最高的关税，并对主要由企鹅居住的冰冻岛屿征收了关税？这被广泛嘲笑，并质疑特朗普团队的严肃性，正如该政府所追求的许多其他非传统政策一样。</p><p>对美国作为可靠伙伴的信任显然已经减弱。正如汇丰银行的货币分析师在周二提醒读者的那样，“信任需要多年建立，几秒钟破裂，永远重建。”</p><p>政府似乎正在努力修复一些声誉损害。值得注意的是，财政部长斯科特·贝森特和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在本周末的日内瓦代表团中担任领导，而不是像商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和贸易与制造政策办公室主任彼得·纳瓦罗这样的关税强硬派。</p><p>但完全恢复美国的信誉不会是一个快速的解决方案。美国利率、美元和整体资产的长期后果可能是显著的。</p><p>因此，如果我们考虑相对于无关税情景的现状，美国的增长可能会更慢，价格可能会更高，而不确定性将更深。但如果政府从一开始采取更务实、少对抗的方式，这些成本会如此沉重吗？</p><p>伤口会愈合，但伤疤可能会持续很长时间。</p><p>（此处表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家）</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3ce046dc449ef26cf5d491bace6da973?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="1032" height="472" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3ce046dc449ef26cf5d491bace6da973"/></figure><p>耶鲁预算实验室预计美国关税仍将是自 1934 年以来的最高水平 </p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c86233081978cb00cea147ac9c1154aa?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="722" height="378" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c86233081978cb00cea147ac9c1154aa"/></figure><p>高盛对新美国关税的估计 </p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1e1a21f477887272f694467c470f02d8?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="647" height="563" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1e1a21f477887272f694467c470f02d8"/></figure><p>牛津经济学分析新美国关税 </p><p>（作者：杰米·麦基弗；编辑：安德烈亚·里奇）</p><p>（（ jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com; 路透社消息： jamie.mcgeever.reuters.com@reuters.net/））</p>

<p>RPT-专栏 - 四月市场混乱的意义何在？：麦基弗</p>

<p>RPT-COLUMN-What was the point of April's market chaos?: McGeever</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RPT-专栏 - 四月市场混乱的意义何在？：麦基弗</p>
</div><p>Repeats column published on Tuesday</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重发周二发布的专栏</p>
</div><p>By Jamie McGeever</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：杰米·麦基弗</p>
</div><p>ORLANDO, Florida, May 13 (Reuters) - The fog of uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war is suddenly lifting, although doubts over its longer-term economic impact will linger. As will another question: what was the point of all that 'Liberation Day' chaos and confusion?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，5 月 13 日（路透社）- 美国总统特朗普的贸易战所造成的不确定性迷雾正在突然消散，尽管对其长期经济影响的怀疑仍将持续。还有另一个问题：所有的 “解放日” 混乱和困惑究竟有什么意义？</p>
</div><p>Trump, a consistent advocate of tariffs since the 1980s, made it very clear during his election campaign that he intended to significantly raise import levies. As the self-styled 'Tariff Man,' he vehemently argued that tariffs will help raise federal revenues, revitalize U.S. manufacturing, and reduce the country's yawning trade deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1980 年代以来一直倡导关税的特朗普在竞选期间明确表示，他打算大幅提高进口税。作为自称的 “关税人”，他坚决主张关税将有助于增加联邦收入，振兴美国制造业，并减少国家巨大的贸易赤字。</p>
</div><p>One can argue the economic merits of his agenda, but no one, in good faith, can express surprise that he did exactly what he said he would do. But even some of Trump's ardent backers are questioning the strategy and implementation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们可以争论他议程的经济优点，但没有人可以真心地对他所做的事情感到惊讶。但即使是特朗普的一些热心支持者也在质疑这一策略和实施。</p>
</div><p>Was the aim to whip up economic and market chaos to gain maximum leverage over America's trading partners and thereby secure the most favorable terms for Washington in subsequent trade talks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其目的是制造经济和市场混乱，以便在与美国贸易伙伴的谈判中获得最大杠杆，从而为华盛顿在后续贸易谈判中争取最有利的条件吗？</p>
</div><p>Maybe. Short-term havoc was certainly wreaked, with some $6 trillion wiped off the value of U.S. stocks in the three days after 'Liberation Day.' But now deals are getting done and all those losses have been erased – except, of course, for investors who got spooked and sold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许吧。短期内确实造成了混乱，在 “解放日” 后的三天内，美国股票市值蒸发了约 6 万亿美元。但现在交易正在达成，所有这些损失都已被抹去——当然，除了那些受到惊吓而卖出股票的投资者。</p>
</div><p>But after all that, it's unclear whether the tariffs that will result from these deals – which will likely be much lower than the extreme figures put forward a few weeks ago – will be significant enough to move the dial meaningfully on the U.S. trade deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在经历了这一切之后，目前尚不清楚这些交易所产生的关税——这些关税可能远低于几周前提出的极端数字——是否足够显著，以在美国贸易赤字上产生实质性影响。</p>
</div><p>And on the fiscal side, all tariffs announced so far this year are forecast to raise $2.7 trillion in federal revenue over the 2026-35 decade, up from an estimated $2.4 trillion before the U.S.-China 'truce' in Geneva, according to Yale Budget Lab, which pointed out that sky-high tariffs were far from 'revenue optimal.' Was the turbulence of the last several weeks worth an extra $30 billion a year, or 0.1% of GDP?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在财政方面，今年迄今为止宣布的所有关税预计将在 2026-2035 年间为联邦收入增加 2.7 万亿美元，较美国与中国在日内瓦达成 “休战” 前的 2.4 万亿美元有所上升，耶鲁预算实验室指出，天价关税远非 “收入最优”。过去几周的动荡是否值得每年多出 300 亿美元，或占 GDP 的 0.1%？</p>
</div><p>Of course, $2.7 trillion is not to be sniffed at, but it comes at a cost. Yale Budget Lab also estimates tariffs will knock 0.7 percentage points off real U.S. GDP growth this year, and in the long run the U.S. economy will permanently be 0.4 percentage points smaller. The price level of goods across the country will be permanently higher too, economists reckon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，2.7 万亿美元不是小数目，但这也是有代价的。耶鲁预算实验室还估计，关税将使美国今年的实际 GDP 增长减少 0.7 个百分点，从长远来看，美国经济将永久性地缩小 0.4 个百分点。经济学家认为，全国商品的价格水平也将永久性提高。</p>
</div><p>Estimates vary, but the general view is that the global average effective tariff rate will be somewhere in the 13-18% range, down 10 percentage points from before the weekend truce but still the highest since before the Second World War, and significantly higher than 2.3% at the end of last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估计各不相同，但普遍观点是，全球平均有效关税率将在 13% 到 18% 之间，较周末休战前下降 10 个百分点，但仍是自第二次世界大战以来的最高水平，且显著高于去年年底的 2.3%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, U.S. consumer and business confidence has slumped to some of the lowest levels on record, and consumer inflation expectations are the highest in decades. These indicators may improve in the months ahead, but much spending and investment has been put on hold due to the uncertainty and likely won't be switched back on so quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美国消费者和商业信心已降至历史最低水平之一，消费者通胀预期则是几十年来的最高。这些指标在未来几个月可能会改善，但由于不确定性，许多支出和投资已被搁置，可能不会那么快恢复。</p>
</div><p>LASTING DAMAGE</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持久的损害</p>
</div><p>Perhaps most importantly, the damage done to U.S. credibility hasn't vanished simply because asset prices have rebounded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许最重要的是，美国信誉所遭受的损害并没有因为资产价格的反弹而消失。</p>
</div><p>Remember the methodology behind the Liberation Day figures, which saw some of the highest duties slapped on the world's poorest countries and tariffs imposed on frozen islands largely inhabited by penguins? This was widely ridiculed and called into question the seriousness of Trump's team, as have many of the other unorthodox policies the administration has been pursuing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>记住 “解放日” 数据背后的方法论，这些数据对世界上最贫穷国家征收了最高的关税，并对主要由企鹅居住的冰冻岛屿征收了关税？这被广泛嘲笑，并质疑特朗普团队的严肃性，正如该政府所追求的许多其他非传统政策一样。</p>
</div><p>Faith in America as a reliable partner has clearly been diminished. As HSBC currency analysts reminded readers on Tuesday, &#34;Trust takes years to build, seconds to break and forever to remake.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对美国作为可靠伙伴的信任显然已经减弱。正如汇丰银行的货币分析师在周二提醒读者的那样，“信任需要多年建立，几秒钟破裂，永远重建。”</p>
</div><p>The administration appears to be trying to repair some of that reputational damage. It's notable that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led the delegation in Geneva this weekend rather than tariff hardliners like Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy director Peter Navarro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府似乎正在努力修复一些声誉损害。值得注意的是，财政部长斯科特·贝森特和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在本周末的日内瓦代表团中担任领导，而不是像商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和贸易与制造政策办公室主任彼得·纳瓦罗这样的关税强硬派。</p>
</div><p>But fully restoring U.S. credibility won't be a quick fix. And the long-term consequences for U.S. rates, the dollar and U.S. assets overall could be meaningful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但完全恢复美国的信誉不会是一个快速的解决方案。美国利率、美元和整体资产的长期后果可能是显著的。</p>
</div><p>So if we consider where we are relative to a no-tariff scenario, U.S. growth will likely be slower, prices will likely be higher, and uncertainty will run much deeper. But would these costs be so burdensome had the administration taken a more pragmatic, less confrontational approach from the start?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果我们考虑相对于无关税情景的现状，美国的增长可能会更慢，价格可能会更高，而不确定性将更深。但如果政府从一开始采取更务实、少对抗的方式，这些成本会如此沉重吗？</p>
</div><p>The wounds will heal, but the scars may last a long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伤口会愈合，但伤疤可能会持续很长时间。</p>
</div><p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（此处表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家）</p>
</div><p>U.S. tariffs still projected to be highest since 1934 - Yale Budget Lab https://tmsnrt.rs/4dbCiLj</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耶鲁预算实验室预计美国关税仍将是自 1934 年以来的最高水平 https://tmsnrt.rs/4dbCiLj</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs estimates of new U.S. tariffs https://tmsnrt.rs/3YFHuBf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛对新美国关税的估计 https://tmsnrt.rs/3YFHuBf</p>
</div><p>Oxford Economics breaks down the new U.S. tariffs https://tmsnrt.rs/437wEFy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>牛津经济学分析新美国关税 https://tmsnrt.rs/437wEFy</p>
</div><p>(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Andrea Ricci)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：杰米·麦基弗；编辑：安德烈亚·里奇）</p>
</div><p>(( jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging: jamie.mcgeever.reuters.com@reuters.net/))</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（（ jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com; 路透社消息： jamie.mcgeever.reuters.com@reuters.net/））</p>
</div>

四月份市场混乱的意义是什么？