<p>沃伦·巴菲特在本月早些时候的伯克希尔·哈撒韦年会上宣布，他将在年底辞去首席执行官职务，这让伯克希尔的股东感到惊讶。巴菲特已经管理伯克希尔近六十年，并在此过程中使许多股东致富，伯克希尔的股票也创造了惊人的回报。</p>
<p>现在，奥马哈的先知将把接力棒交给伯克希尔的副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔。巴菲特此前已宣布，阿贝尔将在他辞职后接任首席执行官，尽管时间表直到最近才变得清晰。随着伯克希尔庞大的 3500 亿美元现金储备，阿贝尔在公司拥有坚实的资产负债表和准备好应对任何机会的资金的情况下接管伯克希尔。以下是阿贝尔在正式成为首席执行官后可能采取的一些举措。</p>
<h2>他会买什么？</h2>
<p>许多人猜测巴菲特在储备现金，以准备将权力交给他的继任者。当然，巴菲特对此表示否认。虽然阿贝尔和伯克希尔的其他团队成员完全有能力接过这个火炬，但这仍然是一个巨大的变化，因为巴菲特无疑是有史以来最伟大的投资者，投资者将他作为首席执行官的角色——即使在 94 岁时——视为在自 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行以来市场上常见的风暴中的避风港。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc4MTAvYnVmZmV0dDE5LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc4MTAvYnVmZmV0dDE5LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Motley Fool。</p>
<p>看到伯克希尔以这种速度持续积累现金将令人惊讶，巴菲特本人也表示，伯克希尔团队总是更愿意将资金投入到生产性业务中。然而，伯克希尔面临的一个问题是，其成功使其规模膨胀。公司的市值已超过 1 万亿美元，伯克希尔的股权投资组合在过去多次超过 3000 亿美元。这使得在股票中购买头寸变得困难，因为伯克希尔希望在可能的情况下保持对公司的持股比例低于 10%，这使得许多公司太小，无法对其产生影响。</p>
<p>我们看到伯克希尔的一件事是不断增加其在许多现有持股中的股份。伯克希尔并不害怕像当初将 <strong>苹果</strong> 的股份提升到其总投资组合的 40% 那样大举投资。我认为这种趋势可能会继续。阿贝尔已经管理伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源一段时间，很明显，伯克希尔的投资团队认为国内能源和石油生产商将继续非常有价值。这让我想知道伯克希尔是否会在某一天完全收购 <strong>西方石油</strong>。该公司已经拥有 28% 的流通股，伯克希尔最近的许多收购都在能源领域。</p>
<p>巴菲特表示，伯克希尔对完全收购西方石油没有兴趣，但我想知道在阿贝尔管理公司后，这是否会改变。西方石油的首席执行官维基·霍拉布最近表示，被伯克希尔收购 “将是梦想成真”。其他收购则很难预测，但我不认为伯克希尔的投资团队会偏离伯克希尔的成熟策略。许多人，如泰德·韦施勒和托德·科姆斯，已经管理着大约 10% 的投资组合，他们最近的一些收购，如 <strong>天狼星 XM</strong>，似乎遵循了巴菲特的长期价值导向投资策略。</p>
<h2>预计资本分配将增加</h2>
<p>我预计阿贝尔会利用伯克希尔庞大的现金储备来增加对股东的资本回报。伯克希尔并没有像往常一样回购那么多股票。</p>
<p>一个可能的原因是伯克希尔的股票估值过高，但阿贝尔可能不会像巴菲特那样享有同样的奢侈，股东们可能会期待或要求更稳定的回购流。巴菲特无疑是股东友好的，回购了大量伯克希尔的股票，但阿贝尔可能无法像巴菲特那样长时间坐拥数千亿现金。</p>
<p>这让我想到阿贝尔可能会认真考虑的另一个资本部署领域：推出股息。伯克希尔从未支付过股息，简单来说是因为巴菲特认为他可以更好地利用资本——而他确实是对的。但同样，阿贝尔可能没有这种奢侈。考虑到伯克希尔的规模使得资本部署变得更加困难，现在支付股息更有意义。</p>
<p>股息也可能吸引新的投资者群体。此外，股息与伯克希尔的品牌相一致。该公司不仅在资本部署方面表现出色，而且在市场动荡时期被视为避风港。这也是该股票今年表现优于大盘的部分原因。投资者喜欢该公司的多元化业务、强劲的盈利和现金生成能力，以及强大的管理团队。在我看来，增加一个稳健的股息只会提升这个品牌。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

<p>沃伦·巴菲特宣布他将辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦的首席执行官职务，将这一角色交给格雷格·阿贝尔。阿贝尔手握 3500 亿美元的现金储备，预计将进行战略投资，可能会增加对现有持股的投资或收购像西方石油这样的公司。分析师预测，阿贝尔还可能通过股票回购来提高对股东的资本回报，甚至可能引入分红，这对从未支付过分红的伯克希尔来说是一个重大转变。这一过渡标志着公司在适应新领导层时的一个关键时刻</p>

<p>Warren Buffett surprised <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.36%) (BRK.B -0.37%) shareholders earlier this month when he announced at Berkshire's annual meeting that he would be stepping down as CEO once the year ended. Buffett has run Berkshire for about six decades and made many shareholders rich in the process, with Berkshire's stock generating incredible returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特在本月早些时候的伯克希尔·哈撒韦年会上宣布，他将在年底辞去首席执行官职务，这让伯克希尔的股东感到惊讶。巴菲特已经管理伯克希尔近六十年，并在此过程中使许多股东致富，伯克希尔的股票也创造了惊人的回报。</p>
</div><p>Now, the Oracle of Omaha will pass the baton to Berkshire's vice chair, Greg Abel. Buffett had previously announced that Abel would take over as CEO once he stepped down, although the timeline hadn't been clear until recently. With Berkshire's massive $350 billion hoard of cash, Abel is taking over Berkshire at a time when the company has a fortress balance sheet and a war chest ready for any opportunities that should arise. Here are some moves Abel might make once he officially becomes CEO.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，奥马哈的先知将把接力棒交给伯克希尔的副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔。巴菲特此前已宣布，阿贝尔将在他辞职后接任首席执行官，尽管时间表直到最近才变得清晰。随着伯克希尔庞大的 3500 亿美元现金储备，阿贝尔在公司拥有坚实的资产负债表和准备好应对任何机会的资金的情况下接管伯克希尔。以下是阿贝尔在正式成为首席执行官后可能采取的一些举措。</p>
</div><h2>What will he buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>他会买什么？</h2>
</div><p>Many have speculated that Buffett was stockpiling cash in preparation to hand the reins over to his successor. Buffett has, of course, denied this. While Abel and the rest of the team at Berkshire are more than capable of carrying the torch, it's still a big change, given that Buffett is arguably the greatest investor of all time and that investors viewed his role as CEO -- even at the age of 94 -- as a port in the barrage of storms that have become common in the market since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人猜测巴菲特在储备现金，以准备将权力交给他的继任者。当然，巴菲特对此表示否认。虽然阿贝尔和伯克希尔的其他团队成员完全有能力接过这个火炬，但这仍然是一个巨大的变化，因为巴菲特无疑是有史以来最伟大的投资者，投资者将他作为首席执行官的角色——即使在 94 岁时——视为在自 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行以来市场上常见的风暴中的避风港。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc4MTAvYnVmZmV0dDE5LXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817810%2Fbuffett19-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>It would be surprising to see Berkshire continue building cash at this pace forever, and Buffett himself has said the Berkshire team would always prefer to put its money to work in productive businesses. However, one problem for Berkshire is that its success has swollen its size. The market cap of the company has surpassed $1 trillion, and Berkshire's equity portfolio has surpassed $300 billion on numerous occasions in the past. That makes buying positions in stocks difficult because Berkshire likes to maintain less than a 10% ownership in companies when possible, and it makes many companies too small to move the needle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到伯克希尔以这种速度持续积累现金将令人惊讶，巴菲特本人也表示，伯克希尔团队总是更愿意将资金投入到生产性业务中。然而，伯克希尔面临的一个问题是，其成功使其规模膨胀。公司的市值已超过 1 万亿美元，伯克希尔的股权投资组合在过去多次超过 3000 亿美元。这使得在股票中购买头寸变得困难，因为伯克希尔希望在可能的情况下保持对公司的持股比例低于 10%，这使得许多公司太小，无法对其产生影响。</p>
</div><p>One thing we have seen Berkshire do is continually increase its stake in many of its existing holdings. Berkshire isn't afraid to go big like it did when it took <strong>Apple</strong> to 40% of its total portfolio. I think this trend may continue. Abel has been running Berkshire Hathaway Energy for some time, and it's clear that Berkshire's team of investing lieutenants think that domestic energy and oil producers are going to continue to be incredibly valuable. This makes me wonder if Berkshire will one day purchase <strong>Occidental Petroleum</strong> outright. The company already owns 28% of outstanding shares, and many of Berkshire's more recent acquisitions have been in the energy sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们看到伯克希尔的一件事是不断增加其在许多现有持股中的股份。伯克希尔并不害怕像当初将 <strong>苹果</strong> 的股份提升到其总投资组合的 40% 那样大举投资。我认为这种趋势可能会继续。阿贝尔已经管理伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源一段时间，很明显，伯克希尔的投资团队认为国内能源和石油生产商将继续非常有价值。这让我想知道伯克希尔是否会在某一天完全收购 <strong>西方石油</strong>。该公司已经拥有 28% 的流通股，伯克希尔最近的许多收购都在能源领域。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has said Berkshire has no interest in fully acquiring Occidental, but I wonder if this will change with Abel running the company. Occidental's CEO, Vicki Hollub, has recently said that a buyout by Berkshire &#34;would be a dream come true.&#34; Other purchases are tough to predict, but I wouldn't expect Berkshire's investing lieutenants to stray too far from Berkshire's proven strategy. Many, like Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, already run about 10% of the portfolio, and some of their recent purchases, like <strong>Sirius XM</strong>, seem to be following Buffett's long-term, value-oriented playbook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特表示，伯克希尔对完全收购西方石油没有兴趣，但我想知道在阿贝尔管理公司后，这是否会改变。西方石油的首席执行官维基·霍拉布最近表示，被伯克希尔收购 “将是梦想成真”。其他收购则很难预测，但我不认为伯克希尔的投资团队会偏离伯克希尔的成熟策略。许多人，如泰德·韦施勒和托德·科姆斯，已经管理着大约 10% 的投资组合，他们最近的一些收购，如 <strong>天狼星 XM</strong>，似乎遵循了巴菲特的长期价值导向投资策略。</p>
</div><h2>Expect capital distributions to pick up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预计资本分配将增加</h2>
</div><p>One thing I would expect Abel to do with Berkshire's massive cash hoard is to increase capital returns to shareholders. Berkshire hasn't been buying back as much of Berkshire's stock as it normally does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我预计阿贝尔会利用伯克希尔庞大的现金储备来增加对股东的资本回报。伯克希尔并没有像往常一样回购那么多股票。</p>
</div><p>One possible reason is that Berkshire's stock is too highly valued, but Abel may not be afforded the same luxury as Buffett by shareholders, who will likely expect or possibly demand a steadier stream of buybacks. Buffett was certainly shareholder-friendly and repurchased plenty of Berkshire stock, but Abel probably can't sit on hundreds of billions of cash for as long as Buffett can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个可能的原因是伯克希尔的股票估值过高，但阿贝尔可能不会像巴菲特那样享有同样的奢侈，股东们可能会期待或要求更稳定的回购流。巴菲特无疑是股东友好的，回购了大量伯克希尔的股票，但阿贝尔可能无法像巴菲特那样长时间坐拥数千亿现金。</p>
</div><p>This brings me to another area of capital deployment that I think Abel will strongly consider: Launching a dividend. Berkshire has never paid a dividend, simply because Buffett thought he could deploy capital better -- and he was right. But, once again, Abel probably doesn't have this luxury. Given how Berkshire's size makes it more difficult to deploy capital, it makes more sense to pay a dividend now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这让我想到阿贝尔可能会认真考虑的另一个资本部署领域：推出股息。伯克希尔从未支付过股息，简单来说是因为巴菲特认为他可以更好地利用资本——而他确实是对的。但同样，阿贝尔可能没有这种奢侈。考虑到伯克希尔的规模使得资本部署变得更加困难，现在支付股息更有意义。</p>
</div><p>A dividend would also likely draw in a new investor base. Furthermore, a dividend aligns with Berkshire's brand. The company is not only one of the best at deploying capital, but it's been viewed as a flight to safety during times of market turbulence. This is part of the reason the stock has crushed the broader market this year. Investors like the company's diversity of businesses, strong earnings and cash generation, and strong management team. Adding a sturdy dividend only boosts this brand, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息也可能吸引新的投资者群体。此外，股息与伯克希尔的品牌相一致。该公司不仅在资本部署方面表现出色，而且在市场动荡时期被视为避风港。这也是该股票今年表现优于大盘的部分原因。投资者喜欢该公司的多元化业务、强劲的盈利和现金生成能力，以及强大的管理团队。在我看来，增加一个稳健的股息只会提升这个品牌。</p>
</div>

Prediction: What Might Greg Abel Do With a $350 Billion Cash Stockpile When Buffett Passes the Berkshire Torch

- 巴菲特宣布将在年底辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官职务。  
- 副董事长阿贝尔将接任，伯克希尔拥有 3500 亿美元现金储备。  
- 阿贝尔可能会增加资本回报并考虑首次派发股息。

预测：当巴菲特将伯克希尔的接力棒传递时，Greg Abel 可能会如何处理 3500 亿美元的现金储备