<p>TradingKey - 随着特朗普关税政策放缓的迹象显现，全球经济增长前景改善，国际油价出现了多日反弹。<strong>特朗普继续偏好低油价，市场现在面临一个困境：是应该跟随特朗普的言论，还是经济基本面？</strong></p>
<p>除了促进制造业回流外，加强美国作为能源超级大国的地位仍然是特朗普第二任期政府的核心政策目标。特朗普多次强调希望提升美国原油产量，将其作为降低他所称的 “拜登通胀” 的工具。</p>
<p>最近，高盛的分析师指出，特朗普一直在持续关注油市及美国在该领域的主导地位。他在社交媒体平台上提及这一话题近 900 次。</p>
<p>高盛指出，<strong>特朗普似乎对</strong> <strong>WTI</strong> <strong>原油价格在每桶 40 到 50 美元的范围内最为舒适——在这个价格区间，他关于油价的发帖频率显著下降。</strong></p>
<p>该银行指出，当 WTI 价格超过每桶 50 美元时，特朗普往往呼吁降低价格。相反，当价格跌至 30 美元以下时，他曾呼吁提高价格——通常是为了保护国内石油生产商。</p>
<p>自四月以来，特朗普多次公开呼吁人们 “买入股票”，而美国股市在他的一些推文发布后确实出现了上涨。因此，特朗普对油价的看跌态度也可能影响投资者心理。</p>
<p>然而，另一方面，在美中贸易协议达成时，美国及全球经济衰退的概率被下调，给油价带来了显著的提振。截至 5 月 14 日，WTI 原油月初至今上涨了 8.61%，目前交易价格为每桶 63.40 美元，而布伦特原油上涨了 5.10%，交易价格为每桶 66.33 美元。</p>
<p>数据显示，自四月中旬以来，布伦特原油在七月底到期的看涨期权数量急剧增加，行权价为每桶 95 美元。</p>
<p>除了对进一步减税的预期外，瑞穗证券指出，对油价的看涨情绪也可能源于对 OPEC 将停止进一步增产的预期，或者美伊谈判可能停滞的预期。</p>
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高盛

<p>石油市场面临两难局面，特朗普倾向于将价格维持在每桶 40-50 美元，而经济基本面则暗示价格会上涨。近期全球经济增长前景的改善导致油价反弹，WTI 原油价格为 63.40 美元，布伦特原油价格为 66.33 美元。高盛指出，特朗普对油价的影响显著，因为他在油价超过 50 美元时呼吁降低价格。与此同时，随着对布伦特原油 95 美元看涨期权的增加，市场的乐观情绪正在上升，这主要是由于对 OPEC 减产和关税降低的预期</p>

<p>TradingKey - Following signs of a softening in Trump’s tariff policy, global economic growth prospects have improved, leading to a multi-day rebound in international oil prices. <strong>With Donald Trump expressing a continued preference for lower oil prices, the market now faces a dilemma: should it follow Trump’s rhetoric or economic fundamentals?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 随着特朗普关税政策放缓的迹象显现，全球经济增长前景改善，国际油价出现了多日反弹。<strong>特朗普继续偏好低油价，市场现在面临一个困境：是应该跟随特朗普的言论，还是经济基本面？</strong></p>
</div><p>In addition to promoting manufacturing repatriation, strengthening the U.S. as an energy superpower remains a core policy goal for Trump’s second-term administration. Trump has repeatedly emphasized his desire to boost U.S. crude production, using it as a tool to bring down what he calls “Bidenflation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了促进制造业回流外，加强美国作为能源超级大国的地位仍然是特朗普第二任期政府的核心政策目标。特朗普多次强调希望提升美国原油产量，将其作为降低他所称的 “拜登通胀” 的工具。</p>
</div><p>Recently, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that Trump has consistently monitored the oil market and America’s dominance in the sector. He has referenced the topic nearly 900 times across social media platforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，高盛的分析师指出，特朗普一直在持续关注油市及美国在该领域的主导地位。他在社交媒体平台上提及这一话题近 900 次。</p>
</div><p>Goldman pointed out that <strong>Trump appears most comfortable with</strong> <strong>WTI</strong> <strong>crude prices in the range of $40 to $50 per barrel — a level at which his tendency to post about oil prices significantly declines.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛指出，<strong>特朗普似乎对</strong> <strong>WTI</strong> <strong>原油价格在每桶 40 到 50 美元的范围内最为舒适——在这个价格区间，他关于油价的发帖频率显著下降。</strong></p>
</div><p>The bank noted that when WTI prices rise above $50 per barrel, Trump tends to call for a decrease. Conversely, when prices fall below $30, he has previously urged higher prices — typically to protect domestic oil producers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行指出，当 WTI 价格超过每桶 50 美元时，特朗普往往呼吁降低价格。相反，当价格跌至 30 美元以下时，他曾呼吁提高价格——通常是为了保护国内石油生产商。</p>
</div><p>Since April, Trump has repeatedly called publicly for people to &#34;buy stocks,&#34; and U.S. equities have indeed surged following some of his tweets. Therefore, the president’s bearish stance on oil prices may also influence investor psychology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自四月以来，特朗普多次公开呼吁人们 “买入股票”，而美国股市在他的一些推文发布后确实出现了上涨。因此，特朗普对油价的看跌态度也可能影响投资者心理。</p>
</div><p>However, on the flip side, around the time the U.S.-China trade deal was reached, the probability of economic recessions in the U.S. and globally were revised downward, giving oil prices a significant boost. As of May 14, WTI crude had risen 8.61% month-to-date, currently trading at $63.40 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 5.10%, trading at $66.33 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，另一方面，在美中贸易协议达成时，美国及全球经济衰退的概率被下调，给油价带来了显著的提振。截至 5 月 14 日，WTI 原油月初至今上涨了 8.61%，目前交易价格为每桶 63.40 美元，而布伦特原油上涨了 5.10%，交易价格为每桶 66.33 美元。</p>
</div><p>Data shows that since mid-April, there has been a sharp increase in the number of Brent crude call options expiring in late July with a strike price of $95 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示，自四月中旬以来，布伦特原油在七月底到期的看涨期权数量急剧增加，行权价为每桶 95 美元。</p>
</div><p>Besides expectations of further tariff reductions, Mizuho Securities noted that bullish sentiment toward oil prices could also stem from expectations that OPEC will halt further production increases, or that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might stall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了对进一步减税的预期外，瑞穗证券指出，对油价的看涨情绪也可能源于对 OPEC 将停止进一步增产的预期，或者美伊谈判可能停滞的预期。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
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</div>

石油价格的困境：特朗普倾向于 40 美元，而看涨期权则押注 95 美元