<p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.89%)(GOOGL 0.73%) 上周遭遇重创，因为一位 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.15%) 高管在证词中表示，他预计传统搜索引擎将消失，并被人工智能（AI）驱动的搜索功能所取代。这一消息导致字母表的股票暴跌 7%。</p>
<p>在第一季度，字母表 56% 的收入来自谷歌搜索引擎，因此这显然是其业务的重要组成部分。如果谷歌搜索被 AI 取代，这是否意味着投资者所熟知的字母表股票的终结？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc3NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1wZXJzb24tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc3NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1wZXJzb24tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>字母表的管理层已经意识到这一挑战</h2>
<p>AI 驱动的搜索将取代传统搜索引擎的消息对字母表管理层来说并不新鲜。它清楚面临的挑战，并已经努力将 AI 融入搜索结果中。</p>
<p>用户现在在页面顶部找到的是 AI 总结，而不是在谷歌搜索中翻找信息。字母表的管理层在其第一季度的电话会议上提到，这是一项极受欢迎的功能，用户基础仍在增长。此外，公司正在努力添加更多功能并扩展其使用案例。</p>
<p>因此，尽管股市对苹果在联邦法院传达的消息反应消极，但我认为投资者不应跟随这种情绪。实际上，他们应该感到高兴。</p>
<p>他们为什么应该高兴？因为字母表可能不需要向苹果支付那么多钱，以成为其产品的默认搜索引擎。</p>
<h2>字母表的股票非常便宜</h2>
<p>在 2022 年，字母表向苹果支付了 200 亿美元，以成为苹果产品的默认搜索引擎。这使字母表陷入困境，并成为针对谷歌搜索引擎的非法垄断案件的关键因素。苹果高管 Eddy Cue 提到，苹果可能会向用户提供 AI 驱动的搜索替代方案，而不是默认使用谷歌。如果是这样，字母表就不需要再向苹果支付，因为它将不再拥有默认状态。如果发生这种情况，字母表的利润将立即增加 200 亿美元。</p>
<p>考虑到字母表在过去 12 个月中产生了约 1110 亿美元的利润，这将使利润几乎增加 20%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ca3d3d93a340bbba1e1259d440228363.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ca3d3d93a340bbba1e1259d440228363.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，如果苹果让用户选择他们使用的平台，字母表可能会因为一些用户选择谷歌以外的替代方案而失去一些收入。因此，所有的 200 亿美元不太可能全部进入底线。但我认为其中很大一部分仍会存在，因为谷歌搜索引擎仍然是全球最受欢迎的搜索引擎，许多用户可能仍会选择它。</p>
<p>所以，这并不是字母表股票的终结；更像是一个新的开始。</p>
<p>市场并不这样看，字母表的股票最近以极便宜的 16 倍预期收益交易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e86926313c8342c723c888560b2f5d92.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e86926313c8342c723c888560b2f5d92.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 市盈率（预期）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>对于一家仍在健康增长的公司来说，这个价格非常便宜。再加上一个催化剂，如果字母表不需要向苹果支付 200 亿美元，这笔费用将会立即消除，并直接增加字母表的收益。这将降低市盈率的分母，使股票变得更加便宜。</p>
<p>尽管市场其他部分可能对字母表的股票感到有些恐惧，但我认为这种悲观情绪是不必要的。当前的股价对那些能够忍受许多头条新闻引发的恐惧的人来说，代表了极好的价值。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>在一位苹果高管暗示传统搜索引擎可能会被人工智能取代后，Alphabet 的股票下跌了 7%。尽管如此，Alphabet 正在通过将人工智能整合到搜索结果中进行适应，这一做法正在获得越来越多的关注。如果公司不再需要支付苹果作为默认搜索引擎的费用，可能会节省 200 亿美元，这有可能提升利润。目前，Alphabet 的市盈率低至 16，股票被视为被低估，为投资者提供了买入机会，尽管市场存在担忧</p>

<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.89%)(GOOGL 0.73%) was slammed last week when a testimony from an <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.15%) executive stated that he expects traditional search engines to disappear and be replaced with artificial intelligence (AI)-powered search features. This news caused Alphabet's stock to tumble 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.89%)(GOOGL 0.73%) 上周遭遇重创，因为一位 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 1.15%) 高管在证词中表示，他预计传统搜索引擎将消失，并被人工智能（AI）驱动的搜索功能所取代。这一消息导致字母表的股票暴跌 7%。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter, 56% of Alphabet's revenue came from the Google search engine, so this is clearly a huge part of its business. If Google search is replaced by AI, could that be the end of Alphabet's stock as investors know it?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，字母表 56% 的收入来自谷歌搜索引擎，因此这显然是其业务的重要组成部分。如果谷歌搜索被 AI 取代，这是否意味着投资者所熟知的字母表股票的终结？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTc3NDUvc2hvY2tlZC1wZXJzb24tbG9va2luZy1hdC1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F817745%2Fshocked-person-looking-at-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's management is already aware of this challenge</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表的管理层已经意识到这一挑战</h2>
</div><p>The news that AI-powered search will replace traditional search engines isn't news to Alphabet management's team. It's well aware of the challenges it faces and has already worked to incorporate AI into search results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 驱动的搜索将取代传统搜索引擎的消息对字母表管理层来说并不新鲜。它清楚面临的挑战，并已经努力将 AI 融入搜索结果中。</p>
</div><p>Instead of rummaging through information from a Google search, users now find an AI summary presented at the top of the page. Alphabet's management mentioned on its Q1 conference call that this is an incredibly popular feature that's still growing its user base. Furthermore, the company is working on adding additional features and expanding its use cases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>用户现在在页面顶部找到的是 AI 总结，而不是在谷歌搜索中翻找信息。字母表的管理层在其第一季度的电话会议上提到，这是一项极受欢迎的功能，用户基础仍在增长。此外，公司正在努力添加更多功能并扩展其使用案例。</p>
</div><p>So, even though the stock market reacted negatively to the news that Apple delivered to federal court, I don't think investors should follow suit. In fact, they should be rejoicing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管股市对苹果在联邦法院传达的消息反应消极，但我认为投资者不应跟随这种情绪。实际上，他们应该感到高兴。</p>
</div><p>Why should they rejoice? Well, Alphabet may not need to pay Apple as much money to become the default search engine on its products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们为什么应该高兴？因为字母表可能不需要向苹果支付那么多钱，以成为其产品的默认搜索引擎。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's stock is dirt cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表的股票非常便宜</h2>
</div><p>In 2022, Alphabet paid Apple $20 billion to be the default search engine on Apple's products. This landed Alphabet in hot water and was a key factor in the illegal monopoly case against the Google search engine. Apple's executive Eddy Cue mentioned that Apple may offer AI-powered search alternatives to users rather than defaulting to Google. If that's the case, Alphabet wouldn't need to pay Apple because it wouldn't have the default status anymore. If that happened, Alphabet's profits would jump by $20 billion immediately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年，字母表向苹果支付了 200 亿美元，以成为苹果产品的默认搜索引擎。这使字母表陷入困境，并成为针对谷歌搜索引擎的非法垄断案件的关键因素。苹果高管 Eddy Cue 提到，苹果可能会向用户提供 AI 驱动的搜索替代方案，而不是默认使用谷歌。如果是这样，字母表就不需要再向苹果支付，因为它将不再拥有默认状态。如果发生这种情况，字母表的利润将立即增加 200 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Considering that Alphabet has generated around $111 billion in profits over the past 12 months, this would provide nearly a 20% increase in profits overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到字母表在过去 12 个月中产生了约 1110 亿美元的利润，这将使利润几乎增加 20%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ca3d3d93a340bbba1e1259d440228363.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ca3d3d93a340bbba1e1259d440228363.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>However, if Apple gave users the choice of what platform they'd use, Alphabet would likely lose some revenue due to some users opting for an alternative to Google. So, it would be unlikely that all of the $20 billion would make it to the bottom line. But I'd say a large chunk of it would still be there because the Google search engine is still the most popular worldwide by a wide margin, and many users would likely select it anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果苹果让用户选择他们使用的平台，字母表可能会因为一些用户选择谷歌以外的替代方案而失去一些收入。因此，所有的 200 亿美元不太可能全部进入底线。但我认为其中很大一部分仍会存在，因为谷歌搜索引擎仍然是全球最受欢迎的搜索引擎，许多用户可能仍会选择它。</p>
</div><p>So, this isn't the end for Alphabet's stock; it's more like a new beginning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，这并不是字母表股票的终结；更像是一个新的开始。</p>
</div><p>The market doesn't see it this way, and Alphabet's stock recently traded for a dirt-cheap 16 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场并不这样看，字母表的股票最近以极便宜的 16 倍预期收益交易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e86926313c8342c723c888560b2f5d92.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e86926313c8342c723c888560b2f5d92.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 市盈率（预期）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>That's a very inexpensive price to pay for a company that's still growing at a healthy rate. To add another catalyst, if Alphabet doesn't have to pay Apple $20 billion, an expense would be eliminated overnight and added directly to Alphabet's earnings. This would decrease the denominator of the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, making the stock even cheaper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于一家仍在健康增长的公司来说，这个价格非常便宜。再加上一个催化剂，如果字母表不需要向苹果支付 200 亿美元，这笔费用将会立即消除，并直接增加字母表的收益。这将降低市盈率的分母，使股票变得更加便宜。</p>
</div><p>Although the rest of the market may be a bit fearful about Alphabet's stock, I think the pessimism is unwarranted. The current stock price represents excellent value for those who can endure many headline-induced fears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场其他部分可能对字母表的股票感到有些恐惧，但我认为这种悲观情绪是不必要的。当前的股价对那些能够忍受许多头条新闻引发的恐惧的人来说，代表了极好的价值。</p>
</div>

Is This the End for Alphabet Stock?

- Alphabet 因苹果高管的证词遭遇重创，股价下跌 7%。  
- 苹果可能不再默认使用 Google 搜索，Alphabet 可节省 200 亿美元支出。  
- 尽管市场反应消极，Alphabet 的股价仍具吸引力，未来有望增长。

Alphabet 股票是否走到了尽头？