<p>在 5 月 12 日星期一，因美国和中国将暂停对大多数商品的互相关税 90 天的消息，整体市场指数大幅上涨——这一举措建立在上周末美国和英国公布的贸易协议框架的基础上。</p><p>截至星期一收盘，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.10%）年初至今仅下跌 0.6%——考虑到该指数在 4 月初抛售的最低点时年内下跌超过 15%，这一反弹令人惊讶。</p><p>虽然看到投资组合余额恢复是件好事，但如果这些收益是短暂的，那就意义不大，投资者可能会想知道这次反弹是真实的还是虚假的。</p><p>无论如何，在波动时期关注优质公司是重要的。但我认为 2025 年股市抛售的最糟糕阶段可能已经过去，如果市场继续上涨，我会建议你采取什么措施。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0129710050059db67a8bf71dd0f6e0b1?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0129710050059db67a8bf71dd0f6e0b1"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="n4sp1y8h">结束的曙光</h2><p>没有完美的科学可以知道何时抛售即将开始，也没有办法准确判断何时结束。但有一些简单的指标可以用来衡量市场情绪。</p><p>最简单的指标是股票市场各行业之间的关系。当投资者对经济和企业利润的前景持乐观态度时，像科技、消费品、通信、金融和工业等以增长为导向和周期性行业往往表现良好。但当投资者感到恐惧时，公用事业、消费品和医疗保健等防御性和 “安全” 行业通常会超越基准。</p><p>同样，投资者在不确定时期往往会转向黄金等硬资产。在 4 月底的某个时刻，黄金价格年初至今上涨超过 30%，而标准普尔 500 指数则下跌超过 12%。</p><p>另一个值得关注的良好指标是 CBOE 波动率指数，通常称为 VIX。它衡量标准普尔 500 指数短期期权的隐含波动率。如果投资者愿意为看涨期权支付更多，因为他们认为市场在短期内会大幅上涨，或者为看跌期权支付更多以保护下行风险，那么这将导致更高的波动性。</p><p>当标准普尔 500 指数在 2 月底接近历史最高点时，VIX 处于今年的最低点。然后，在特朗普总统于 4 月 2 日（“解放日”）公布全球关税后不久，VIX 与标准普尔 500 指数的大规模抛售同步飙升。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/321a6c12166357b70b745587e2456de7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="487" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/321a6c12166357b70b745587e2456de7"/></figure><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p><p>在过去几周，VIX 一直在下降，而标准普尔 500 指数则在上涨，这种组合可能表明抛售的最糟糕阶段已经过去。</p><h2 id="d5bd2jpcn">优质公司可能因错误原因被抛售</h2><p>过去一个半月的经历是一个很好的教训，提醒我们在股市波动中被情绪驱动投资决策的陷阱。这也显示了市场对不确定性的厌恶程度。</p><p>特朗普施加的高额关税导致许多国家对美国出口实施更高的关税。不断升级的紧张局势使美国濒临全面贸易战的边缘。企业领导人毫不避讳地阐述这些关税对其业务的影响。</p><p>例如，<strong>英伟达</strong> 表示将在其 2026 财年第一季度计提 55 亿美元的费用。由于对中国的依赖，<strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>耐克</strong> 的股价遭受重创，既是作为制造中心，也是作为主要销售市场。</p><p>然而，最近财报季顶尖科技公司的强劲业绩提醒我们，广泛市场抛售的很大一部分是基于对尚未实现的经济衰退的恐惧。</p><p><strong>微软</strong> 报告了出色的业绩，并重申了其乐观的收入和运营利润率指引。</p><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 加大了对数据中心和人工智能的投资，管理层预测今年的资本支出将增加。</p><p><strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 报告了稳定上升的收入和高利润率，并提高了股息。</p><p>在大型科技公司之外，几家公司因错误原因遭遇股价重创。例如，<strong>美国运通</strong> 报告了出色的业绩，并重申了其全年指引。随着公司扩展其网络并展现出无可挑剔的风险管理，其长期投资论点看起来比以往更强。然而，股价却遭到重创，市盈率被压缩到超低水平。</p><p>微软、Meta、Alphabet 和美国运通只是一些例子，这些公司即使在贸易战紧张局势加剧时也表现良好，但其股价仍然下跌。</p><h2 id="3x4ui8bns">优质公司在长期中获胜</h2><p>市场抛售可能迅速而残酷。当你的屏幕闪烁着红色，且没有尽头时，很容易陷入恐惧之中。</p><p>然而，拥有强大资产负债表的公司不需要因为华盛顿的新政策可能会影响几个季度的业绩而彻底改变其资本支出计划。投资者可以采取类似的方法，不必根据与其持有的基础投资论点无关的因素来彻底改变投资组合。</p><p>抵制采取行动的冲动可能很困难，但我发现应对波动的最佳方法之一是以限制压力的方式进行投资。</p><p>压力可以以不同形式出现。但一些最简单的减轻压力的方法是以长期思维进行投资，使用你不会很快需要的资金。此外，持有你理解且基本面强劲的公司的股票。最后，接受艰难的条件可能在好转之前会变得更糟。</p><p>当市场上涨时，同样的方法也适用。你可以通过认识到自己不必在最低点买入，或者等到能以极低的价格买到股票时再买，从而减轻自己的压力。即使你觉得自己错过了最近几周的特价股票，这也没关系。真正的成功来自于投资于顶尖公司并长期持有，而不是试图完美把握短期市场波动的机会。</p>

<p>美国和中国已暂停相互关税 90 天，这导致市场在 5 月 12 日大幅上涨。标准普尔 500 指数从早期的损失中显著反弹，这引发了对这种复苏可持续性的质疑。行业表现和 CBOE 波动率指数等指标表明，抛售的最坏时刻可能已经过去。尽管近期波动性加大，但主要科技公司的强劲盈利表明，由于对经济衰退的担忧，许多股票被低估。投资者在这些不确定时期被建议关注优质公司</p>

<p>The broader market indexes soared on Monday, May 12, in response to news that the U.S. and China would pause their reciprocal tariffs on most goods for 90 days -- a move that built on the momentum from the trade deal framework that the U.S. and U.K. revealed at the end of last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月 12 日星期一，因美国和中国将暂停对大多数商品的互相关税 90 天的消息，整体市场指数大幅上涨——这一举措建立在上周末美国和英国公布的贸易协议框架的基础上。</p>
</div><p>As of Monday's close, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.10%) was down just 0.6% year to date -- an astonishing rebound considering the index was down by more than 15% on the year at the nadir of its sell-off in early April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至星期一收盘，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.10%）年初至今仅下跌 0.6%——考虑到该指数在 4 月初抛售的最低点时年内下跌超过 15%，这一反弹令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>While it's great to see portfolio balances recover, those gains will matter little if they are fleeting, and investors are likely wondering if this bounce is the real deal or a head fake.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然看到投资组合余额恢复是件好事，但如果这些收益是短暂的，那就意义不大，投资者可能会想知道这次反弹是真实的还是虚假的。</p>
</div><p>Either way, it's important to focus on quality companies during volatile periods. But here's why I think the worst of the 2025 stock market sell-off may be over, and what I'd recommend you do if the market keeps rallying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，在波动时期关注优质公司是重要的。但我认为 2025 年股市抛售的最糟糕阶段可能已经过去，如果市场继续上涨，我会建议你采取什么措施。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwODIvYS1oYW5kc2hha2UtZmVhdHVyaW5nLW9uZS1hcm0tZHJlc3NlZC13aXRoLWFuLWFtZXJpY2FuLWZsYWctYW5kLWFub3RoZXItd2l0aC1hLWNoaW5lc2UtZmxhZy13aXRoLWNvaW5zLWluLXRoZS1iYWNrZ3JvdW5kLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818082%2Fa-handshake-featuring-one-arm-dressed-with-an-american-flag-and-another-with-a-chinese-flag-with-coins-in-the-background.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>An end in sight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结束的曙光</h2>
</div><p>There's no perfect science for knowing when a sell-off is about to start nor for gauging when one is over. But there are some simple indicators you can use to gauge market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有完美的科学可以知道何时抛售即将开始，也没有办法准确判断何时结束。但有一些简单的指标可以用来衡量市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>The simplest is the relationship between stock market sectors. When investors are optimistic about the outlook for the economy and corporate profits, growth-focused and cyclical sectors like tech, consumer discretionary, communications, financials, and industrials tend to do well. But when investors are fearful, then defensive and &#34;safe&#34; sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare usually outperform the benchmarks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最简单的指标是股票市场各行业之间的关系。当投资者对经济和企业利润的前景持乐观态度时，像科技、消费品、通信、金融和工业等以增长为导向和周期性行业往往表现良好。但当投资者感到恐惧时，公用事业、消费品和医疗保健等防御性和 “安全” 行业通常会超越基准。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, investors often turn to hard assets like gold during times of uncertainty. At one point in late April, gold prices were up by over 30% year to date while the S&amp;P 500 was down more than 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，投资者在不确定时期往往会转向黄金等硬资产。在 4 月底的某个时刻，黄金价格年初至今上涨超过 30%，而标准普尔 500 指数则下跌超过 12%。</p>
</div><p>Another good indicator to watch is the CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX. It measures the implied volatility of short-term options on the S&amp;P 500. If investors are willing to pay more for a call option because they think the market will go up a lot in the short term, or a put option to protect against downside risk, then that will lead to higher volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个值得关注的良好指标是 CBOE 波动率指数，通常称为 VIX。它衡量标准普尔 500 指数短期期权的隐含波动率。如果投资者愿意为看涨期权支付更多，因为他们认为市场在短期内会大幅上涨，或者为看跌期权支付更多以保护下行风险，那么这将导致更高的波动性。</p>
</div><p>The VIX was at its lowest point of the year when the S&amp;P 500 was near its all-time high in late February. Then, shortly after President Trump unveiled his global tariffs on April 2 (&#34;Liberation Day&#34;), the VIX spiked in lockstep with a massive sell-off in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当标准普尔 500 指数在 2 月底接近历史最高点时，VIX 处于今年的最低点。然后，在特朗普总统于 4 月 2 日（“解放日”）公布全球关税后不久，VIX 与标准普尔 500 指数的大规模抛售同步飙升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6a098727f82f41a3fb06afd726e611d3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6a098727f82f41a3fb06afd726e611d3.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In the last few weeks, the VIX has been falling and the S&amp;P 500 has been climbing, a combination that could signal that the worst of the sell-off is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几周，VIX 一直在下降，而标准普尔 500 指数则在上涨，这种组合可能表明抛售的最糟糕阶段已经过去。</p>
</div><h2>Great companies can sell off for bad reasons</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>优质公司可能因错误原因被抛售</h2>
</div><p>The last month and a half or so have been a great lesson on the pitfalls of getting caught up in stock market volatility and letting emotions drive your investment decisions. It also shows the degree to which the market despises uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一个半月的经历是一个很好的教训，提醒我们在股市波动中被情绪驱动投资决策的陷阱。这也显示了市场对不确定性的厌恶程度。</p>
</div><p>The steep tariffs that Trump imposed led to a host of countries imposing their own higher tariffs on U.S. exports. The escalating tensions put the U.S. on the brink of an all-out trade war. Corporate leaders didn't shy away from outlining the effects these tariffs would have on their businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普施加的高额关税导致许多国家对美国出口实施更高的关税。不断升级的紧张局势使美国濒临全面贸易战的边缘。企业领导人毫不避讳地阐述这些关税对其业务的影响。</p>
</div><p>For example, <strong>Nvidia</strong> said it would be taking a $5.5 billion charge in its fiscal 2026 first quarter. Shares of <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Nike</strong> got crushed due to their exposure to China, both as a manufacturing hub and as a major market for sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>英伟达</strong> 表示将在其 2026 财年第一季度计提 55 亿美元的费用。由于对中国的依赖，<strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>耐克</strong> 的股价遭受重创，既是作为制造中心，也是作为主要销售市场。</p>
</div><p>However, strong results from top tech companies in the recent earnings season were a reminder that much of the broad market sell-off was based on fears of an economic downturn that had yet to materialize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近财报季顶尖科技公司的强劲业绩提醒我们，广泛市场抛售的很大一部分是基于对尚未实现的经济衰退的恐惧。</p>
</div><p><strong>Microsoft</strong> reported phenomenal results and reaffirmed its upbeat revenue and operating margin guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong> 报告了出色的业绩，并重申了其乐观的收入和运营利润率指引。</p>
</div><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong> ramped up its data center and artificial intelligence investments, and management forecast higher capital expenditures this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 加大了对数据中心和人工智能的投资，管理层预测今年的资本支出将增加。</p>
</div><p><strong>Alphabet</strong> reported steadily rising revenue and high margins. It also raised its dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 报告了稳定上升的收入和高利润率，并提高了股息。</p>
</div><p>Outside of big tech, several companies saw their stock prices get crushed for the wrong reasons. For example, <strong>American Express</strong> reported excellent results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. Its long-term investment thesis looks stronger than ever with the company expanding its network while displaying impeccable risk management. Yet the stock got clobbered, and its price-to-earnings ratio was compressed to bargain-bin levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大型科技公司之外，几家公司因错误原因遭遇股价重创。例如，<strong>美国运通</strong> 报告了出色的业绩，并重申了其全年指引。随着公司扩展其网络并展现出无可挑剔的风险管理，其长期投资论点看起来比以往更强。然而，股价却遭到重创，市盈率被压缩到超低水平。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and American Express are just some of the many examples of companies that were doing just fine even when trade war tensions were hot, yet their stock prices fell anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软、Meta、Alphabet 和美国运通只是一些例子，这些公司即使在贸易战紧张局势加剧时也表现良好，但其股价仍然下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Quality wins in the long run</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>优质公司在长期中获胜</h2>
</div><p>Market sell-offs can be swift and brutal. When your screen flashes red with no end in sight, it's easy to get caught up in fear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场抛售可能迅速而残酷。当你的屏幕闪烁着红色，且没有尽头时，很容易陷入恐惧之中。</p>
</div><p>However, companies with strong balance sheets don't need to overhaul their capital spending plans just because new policies in Washington appear liable to throw a wrench in a few quarters of results. Investors can take a similar approach by not overhauling their investment portfolios based on factors that don't pertain to the underlying investment theses of their holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，拥有强大资产负债表的公司不需要因为华盛顿的新政策可能会影响几个季度的业绩而彻底改变其资本支出计划。投资者可以采取类似的方法，不必根据与其持有的基础投资论点无关的因素来彻底改变投资组合。</p>
</div><p>Resisting the urge to take action can be difficult, but I've found that one of the best ways to handle volatility is to invest in a way that limits pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>抵制采取行动的冲动可能很困难，但我发现应对波动的最佳方法之一是以限制压力的方式进行投资。</p>
</div><p>Pressure can come in different forms. But some of the simplest ways to mitigate pressure are to invest with a long-term mindset with money that you won't need anytime soon. Also, stick to holding shares of companies that you understand and that have strong fundamentals. Lastly, accept that rough conditions can get worse before they get better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>压力可以以不同形式出现。但一些最简单的减轻压力的方法是以长期思维进行投资，使用你不会很快需要的资金。此外，持有你理解且基本面强劲的公司的股票。最后，接受艰难的条件可能在好转之前会变得更糟。</p>
</div><p>The same approach applies when the market is going up. You can eliminate pressure on yourself by recognizing that you don't have to time the very bottom to buy, nor wait to buy stocks until you can get them at incredible prices. Even if you're feeling like you missed out on the bargain-bin prices from recent weeks, that's OK. The real wins come from investing in top companies and holding them over the long term, not from trying to capitalize perfectly on short-term periods of market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当市场上涨时，同样的方法也适用。你可以通过认识到自己不必在最低点买入，或者等到能以极低的价格买到股票时再买，从而减轻自己的压力。即使你觉得自己错过了最近几周的特价股票，这也没关系。真正的成功来自于投资于顶尖公司并长期持有，而不是试图完美把握短期市场波动的机会。</p>
</div>

U.S.-China Tariff Cuts: Is the 2025 Stock Market Sell-Off Officially Over?

- 美国与中国暂停大部分商品关税，市场反应积极。  
- S&P 500 指数年初至今仅下跌 0.6%。  
- 投资者应关注优质公司以应对市场波动。

美中关税削减：2025 年股市抛售是否已经正式结束？