<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 4.12%) 在 2024 年 6 月首次达到了 3 万亿美元的市值。这家巨型 GPU 制造商在接下来的八个月中大部分时间都保持在这一门槛之上，直到今年发生了急剧的抛售。</p>
<p>然而，英伟达刚刚重新加入了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.28%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.81%) 的 3 万亿美元俱乐部。它能否在 2026 年前成为首个 4 万亿美元的股票？</p>
<h2>反弹</h2>
<p>英伟达是如何反弹的？并不是它自己做了什么。要理解这只股票的反弹，我们首先需要了解它为何会下跌。</p>
<p>英伟达下跌的一个主要原因是特朗普政府对向中国出口 H20 GPU 的严格贸易限制。英伟达宣布将在 2025 年第一季度因这一原因计提 55 亿美元的减值。</p>
<p>白宫的关税也对英伟达的股价产生了重大影响（对许多其他股票也是如此）。特别是对中国进口的特别高的关税以及中国对美国进口商品征收的报复性关税让投资者感到担忧。</p>
<p>由于这些因素导致英伟达股票下跌，因此贸易方面的更鼓舞人心的消息帮助其复苏是有道理的。最近几周，特朗普政府发出的中国关税将降低的初步信号起到了帮助作用。最近对部分关税的 90 天暂停提供了更多乐观的理由。</p>
<h2>首个 4 万亿美元的股票</h2>
<p>虽然英伟达再次进入了 3 万亿美元俱乐部，甚至超过了苹果的市值，但微软离 4 万亿美元的标志最近最接近。但英伟达能否超过微软并保持领先于苹果？这完全有可能。</p>
<p>微软的股票交易价格接近未来收益的 30 倍。苹果的未来收益倍数大约为 27。英伟达稍微落后，股票交易价格为未来收益的 26.9 倍。在其他条件相同的情况下，这一较低的估值无疑给了英伟达比微软更大的上涨空间，与苹果大致相同。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgxNDgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd29tYW4taG9sZGluZy1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgxNDgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd29tYW4taG9sZGluZy1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然而，这些科技巨头的增长前景并不相同。华尔街预计英伟达在本财年的收益将飙升约 47%，下一个财年增长 29%。相比之下，分析师预计苹果今年的收益将增长 18%，明年增长 9%，微软今年的收益增长将接近 14%，明年接近 13%。</p>
<p>我认为英伟达比苹果或微软更有可能成为首个 4 万亿美元的股票。其他公司，如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>，也是竞争者，但我认为它们在这场竞争中是黑马。</p>
<h2>到 2026 年？</h2>
<p>但英伟达能否在 2026 年前实现 4 万亿美元的市值？我对这个时间点的信心较低。</p>
<p>虽然投资者对美中之间全面贸易战威胁降低感到兴奋，但似乎仍然会征收显著的关税。这些关税可能在某种程度上对英伟达的业务产生抑制。</p>
<p>由于关税可能导致的经济放缓也可能使一些公司减少对人工智能（AI）的投资，这可能对数据中心的增长产生负面影响。如果是这样，英伟达的 GPU 需求可能会下降。</p>
<p>英伟达的市值需要大约增长 25% 才能达到 4 万亿美元。我认为在接下来的 18 个月左右，这一增长水平是_可能_实现的。然而，许多变量在起作用，这可能使得在如此相对短的时间内实现这一目标变得更加困难。我预测英伟达将成为首个 4 万亿美元的股票，但我将留待它达到这一标志的日期未定。</p>

苹果

英伟达

微软

<p>英伟达刚刚重新加入苹果和微软的 3 万亿美元俱乐部。它会在 2026 年前成为首个 4 万亿美元的股票吗？</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 4.12%) first reached a market cap of $3 trillion in June 2024. The giant GPU maker remained above the threshold throughout much of the next eight months before a steep sell-off this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 4.12%) 在 2024 年 6 月首次达到了 3 万亿美元的市值。这家巨型 GPU 制造商在接下来的八个月中大部分时间都保持在这一门槛之上，直到今年发生了急剧的抛售。</p>
</div><p>However, Nvidia just rejoined <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.28%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.81%) in the $3 trillion club. Could it even become the first $4 trillion stock by 2026?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，英伟达刚刚重新加入了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.28%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 0.81%) 的 3 万亿美元俱乐部。它能否在 2026 年前成为首个 4 万亿美元的股票？</p>
</div><h2>Bouncing back</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>反弹</h2>
</div><p>What did Nvidia do to bounce back? Nothing on its own. To understand the stock's rebound, we need to first understand why it fell in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达是如何反弹的？并不是它自己做了什么。要理解这只股票的反弹，我们首先需要了解它为何会下跌。</p>
</div><p>One main culprit for Nvidia was the Trump administration's strict trade restrictions on exports of H20 GPUs to China. Nvidia announced it would take a $5.5 billion writedown in the first quarter of 2025 as a result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达下跌的一个主要原因是特朗普政府对向中国出口 H20 GPU 的严格贸易限制。英伟达宣布将在 2025 年第一季度因这一原因计提 55 亿美元的减值。</p>
</div><p>The White House's tariffs have also had a major impact on Nvidia's share price (as they have on many other stocks, too). In particular, the especially steep tariffs on imports from China and the retaliatory tariffs the country levied on U.S. imports concerned investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫的关税也对英伟达的股价产生了重大影响（对许多其他股票也是如此）。特别是对中国进口的特别高的关税以及中国对美国进口商品征收的报复性关税让投资者感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>With those factors causing Nvidia stock to fall, it makes sense that more encouraging news on the trade front helped spark a comeback. Initial signals in recent weeks by the Trump administration that Chinese tariffs would be lower helped. The recent 90-day pause on some of the tariffs provided more reason for optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于这些因素导致英伟达股票下跌，因此贸易方面的更鼓舞人心的消息帮助其复苏是有道理的。最近几周，特朗普政府发出的中国关税将降低的初步信号起到了帮助作用。最近对部分关税的 90 天暂停提供了更多乐观的理由。</p>
</div><h2>The first $4 trillion stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>首个 4 万亿美元的股票</h2>
</div><p>While Nvidia is again in the $3 trillion club and even inched past Apple's market cap, Microsoft is closest to the $4 trillion mark. But could Nvidia jump past Microsoft and remain ahead of Apple? It's quite possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然英伟达再次进入了 3 万亿美元俱乐部，甚至超过了苹果的市值，但微软离 4 万亿美元的标志最近最接近。但英伟达能否超过微软并保持领先于苹果？这完全有可能。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's shares trade at nearly 30 times forward earnings. Apple's forward earnings multiple is roughly 27. Nvidia is a hair behind with shares trading at 26.9 times forward earnings. All else being equal, this lower valuation arguably gives Nvidia more room to run than Microsoft and about the same amount as Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的股票交易价格接近未来收益的 30 倍。苹果的未来收益倍数大约为 27。英伟达稍微落后，股票交易价格为未来收益的 26.9 倍。在其他条件相同的情况下，这一较低的估值无疑给了英伟达比微软更大的上涨空间，与苹果大致相同。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgxNDgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd29tYW4taG9sZGluZy1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818148%2Fdata-center-woman-holding-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>However, the growth prospects for these tech giants aren't equal. Wall Street expects Nvidia's earnings to soar around 47% this fiscal year and 29% in the next fiscal year. By comparison, analysts look for Apple's earnings to increase 18% this year and 9% next year, with Microsoft delivering earnings growth of almost 14% this year and nearly 13% next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些科技巨头的增长前景并不相同。华尔街预计英伟达在本财年的收益将飙升约 47%，下一个财年增长 29%。相比之下，分析师预计苹果今年的收益将增长 18%，明年增长 9%，微软今年的收益增长将接近 14%，明年接近 13%。</p>
</div><p>I think Nvidia is in a stronger position to become the first $4 trillion stock than either Apple or Microsoft. Others, such as <strong>Amazon</strong> and Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>, are also contenders, but I view them as dark horses in the race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为英伟达比苹果或微软更有可能成为首个 4 万亿美元的股票。其他公司，如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和谷歌母公司 <strong>字母表</strong>，也是竞争者，但我认为它们在这场竞争中是黑马。</p>
</div><h2>By 2026?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>到 2026 年？</h2>
</div><p>But could Nvidia achieve a $4 trillion market cap by 2026? I'm less confident about the timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但英伟达能否在 2026 年前实现 4 万亿美元的市值？我对这个时间点的信心较低。</p>
</div><p>While investors are understandably excited about the lower threat of a full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China, it seems likely that significant tariffs will still be imposed. These tariffs could still put a damper on Nvidia's business to some extent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然投资者对美中之间全面贸易战威胁降低感到兴奋，但似乎仍然会征收显著的关税。这些关税可能在某种程度上对英伟达的业务产生抑制。</p>
</div><p>A possible economic slowdown due to the tariffs could also cause some companies to curtail their investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which could negatively impact data center growth. If so, the demand for Nvidia's GPUs could slip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于关税可能导致的经济放缓也可能使一些公司减少对人工智能（AI）的投资，这可能对数据中心的增长产生负面影响。如果是这样，英伟达的 GPU 需求可能会下降。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's market cap would need to jump by roughly 25% to hit $4 trillion. I think this level of increase <em>could</em> be attained over the next 18 months or so. However, many variables are at play that could make the goal harder to achieve in such a relatively short time. I predict that Nvidia will be the first $4 trillion stock, but I'll leave the date by which it reaches the mark open.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的市值需要大约增长 25% 才能达到 4 万亿美元。我认为在接下来的 18 个月左右，这一增长水平是_可能_实现的。然而，许多变量在起作用，这可能使得在如此相对短的时间内实现这一目标变得更加困难。我预测英伟达将成为首个 4 万亿美元的股票，但我将留待它达到这一标志的日期未定。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Just Rejoined Apple and Microsoft in the $3 Trillion Club. Could It Become the First $4 Trillion Stock by 2026?

- Nvidia 在 2024 年 6 月首次达到 3 万亿美元市值。  
- 由于贸易限制和关税影响，Nvidia 股价曾大幅下跌。  
- 预计 Nvidia 将在未来 18 个月内有望成为首个 4 万亿美元市值的公司。  

英伟达刚刚重新加入了苹果和微软的 3 万亿美元俱乐部。它是否有可能在 2026 年成为首个市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司？