<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）市值超过 3 万亿美元，现在是全球三大公司之一。这并非偶然。这家芯片制造商在数据中心 GPU 市场的控制率估计约为 90%。其 GPU 被广泛认为是世界上最好的，这不仅体现在其高市场份额上，还体现在其市场领先的毛利率上。AI 革命实际上依赖于这些 GPU，而英伟达在数据中心 GPU 领域的主导地位使其在 AI 的长期增长中占据了前排位置。</p>
<p>然而，随着时间的推移，竞争将会产生影响。这可能需要数年时间，但最终，英伟达的市场份额将会缩小。在此之前，我们应该会看到价格压力降低其毛利率。所有这些并不意味着它是一个糟糕的长期投资。事实上，尽管面临长期竞争压力的威胁，英伟达的股票现在可能非常便宜。但就像任何市场一样，竞争最终会出现，为下面的 AI 股票带来巨大的上行潜力。</p>
<h2>云计算股票将受益于芯片行业竞争</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，英伟达的 GPU 现在是王者。竞争对手芯片制造商如 <strong>英特尔</strong> 和 <strong>AMD</strong> 不仅在数据中心 GPU 市场的市场份额远低于英伟达，而且毛利率也大幅低于英伟达——这表明它们的芯片并没有像英伟达的芯片那样获得相同的溢价。十年前，英特尔的毛利率实际上高于英伟达。但由于科技行业对 AI 加速器芯片的需求旺盛，英伟达现在的毛利率是半导体行业历史上最高的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/948f77e2a94f5ad7c6df92f096ffaebf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/948f77e2a94f5ad7c6df92f096ffaebf.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>竞争对手已经注意到了这一点。除了英伟达的传统对手如英特尔和 AMD 外，还有一系列全球竞争者和资金充足的初创公司正在寻求复制其成功。从长远来看，英伟达芯片所提供的性能优势应该会相对减弱，从而削弱其定价能力，导致毛利率降低。</p>
<p>哪些公司将从这场芯片行业战争中受益？像 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.61%）这样的巨型数据中心运营商。到本十年末，如果科技巨头的市值因其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）部门而高于英伟达，也不会令人惊讶。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY4NTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTk4MDM1Nzk0Ni0xMjAweDc1MC03ZDU5MzkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY4NTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTk4MDM1Nzk0Ni0xMjAweDc1MC03ZDU5MzkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>亚马逊可能比英伟达更有价值的一个理由</h2>
<p>人们通常首先将亚马逊视为一家电子商务公司。这是可以理解的：在线销售部门负责公司大部分收入。但在利润方面，亚马逊网络服务无疑是最重要的。在最近几个季度，AWS 提供了亚马逊总运营利润的一半以上。该部门的利润率在近年来持续创下新高，得益于对其云计算网络的强劲需求——这种需求直接源于 AI 使用的增加以及科技界迅速开发更好模型的努力。</p>
<p>目前，AWS 在云计算领域的地位就像英伟达在数据中心 GPU 领域的地位。它拥有 30% 的全球市场份额，且利润率处于行业领先水平。它在云基础设施方面的市场份额几乎与其两个最近竞争对手的总和相当。尽管它是英伟达产品的主要买家，但归根结底，它对芯片战争相对中立。它将购买其客户所需的任何芯片来支持他们的软件。如果 AI 加速器领域出现更多竞争，AWS 将能够从更多制造商那里购买更便宜的芯片——这非常重要，因为英伟达的高价芯片目前的交货时间长达 12 个月，这限制了 AWS 与客户需求同步扩展的能力。</p>
<p>一些分析师认为，单靠 AWS 最终可能价值 3 万亿美元——这大致相当于英伟达目前的市值。再加上其其他业务的价值，亚马逊超越芯片制造商的理由变得显而易见。</p>
<p>AI 芯片领域的竞争将在本十年全面爆发，AWS 应该会受益。因此，不要惊讶于亚马逊的估值基于其云部门的长期成功超过英伟达。</p>

英伟达

亚马逊

<p>文章预测，到 2030 年，由于芯片市场竞争加剧，一只人工智能股票可能会超过英伟达的市值。英伟达目前在数据中心 GPU 市场占据 90% 的份额，并且拥有高毛利率，但随着英特尔和 AMD 等竞争对手的出现，这种主导地位可能会下降。亚马逊的 AWS 部门对其利润贡献显著，预计将从这场竞争中受益，可能导致其市值超过英伟达。分析师建议，AWS 的估值可能达到 3 万亿美元，突显了人工智能和云计算领域的变化</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA), with a market cap of more than $3 trillion, is now one of the three largest companies in the world. This is not a fluke. The chip maker's control of the data center GPU market is estimated at around 90%. Its GPUs are widely considered the best in the world, as evidenced both by its high market share and its market-leading gross margins. The AI revolution literally runs on these GPUs, and Nvidia's dominance in the data center GPU space gives it a front-row seat to AI's long-term growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）市值超过 3 万亿美元，现在是全球三大公司之一。这并非偶然。这家芯片制造商在数据中心 GPU 市场的控制率估计约为 90%。其 GPU 被广泛认为是世界上最好的，这不仅体现在其高市场份额上，还体现在其市场领先的毛利率上。AI 革命实际上依赖于这些 GPU，而英伟达在数据中心 GPU 领域的主导地位使其在 AI 的长期增长中占据了前排位置。</p>
</div><p>Over time, however, competition will take its toll. It may take years, but eventually, Nvidia's market share will shrink. And long before that, we should see pricing pressure reduce its gross margins. All of this doesn't make it a poor long-term investment. In fact, Nvidia shares might be very cheap right now despite the threat of long-term competitive pressures. But like any market, competition will eventually appear, giving huge upside potential to the AI stock below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着时间的推移，竞争将会产生影响。这可能需要数年时间，但最终，英伟达的市场份额将会缩小。在此之前，我们应该会看到价格压力降低其毛利率。所有这些并不意味着它是一个糟糕的长期投资。事实上，尽管面临长期竞争压力的威胁，英伟达的股票现在可能非常便宜。但就像任何市场一样，竞争最终会出现，为下面的 AI 股票带来巨大的上行潜力。</p>
</div><h2>Cloud computing stocks will benefit from chip sector competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>云计算股票将受益于芯片行业竞争</h2>
</div><p>There is no doubt that Nvidia's GPUs are king right now. Rival chipmakers like <strong>Intel</strong> and <strong>AMD</strong> not only have far lower market shares in data center GPUs, but also dramatically lower gross margins -- an indicator that their chips don't command nearly the same premiums that Nvidia's do. A decade ago, Intel actually had higher gross margins than Nvidia. But thanks to the tech sector's unquenchable demand for AI accelerator chips, Nvidia is now posting some of the highest gross margins ever seen in the semiconductor industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，英伟达的 GPU 现在是王者。竞争对手芯片制造商如 <strong>英特尔</strong> 和 <strong>AMD</strong> 不仅在数据中心 GPU 市场的市场份额远低于英伟达，而且毛利率也大幅低于英伟达——这表明它们的芯片并没有像英伟达的芯片那样获得相同的溢价。十年前，英特尔的毛利率实际上高于英伟达。但由于科技行业对 AI 加速器芯片的需求旺盛，英伟达现在的毛利率是半导体行业历史上最高的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/948f77e2a94f5ad7c6df92f096ffaebf.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/948f77e2a94f5ad7c6df92f096ffaebf.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Competitors have noticed. Beyond Nvidia's traditional foes like Intel and AMD, an array of global competitors and well-funded start-ups are seeking to replicate its success. Over the long term, the performance advantages Nvidia's chips offer should diminish on a relative basis, cutting into its pricing power and leading to lower gross margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争对手已经注意到了这一点。除了英伟达的传统对手如英特尔和 AMD 外，还有一系列全球竞争者和资金充足的初创公司正在寻求复制其成功。从长远来看，英伟达芯片所提供的性能优势应该会相对减弱，从而削弱其定价能力，导致毛利率降低。</p>
</div><p>Which companies will benefit from this chip industry war? Giant data center operators like <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.61%). By the end of this decade, it won't be surprising if the tech giant has a higher market cap than Nvidia due to its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哪些公司将从这场芯片行业战争中受益？像 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -0.61%）这样的巨型数据中心运营商。到本十年末，如果科技巨头的市值因其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）部门而高于英伟达，也不会令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTY4NTgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTk4MDM1Nzk0Ni0xMjAweDc1MC03ZDU5MzkxLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F816858%2Fgettyimages-1980357946-1200x750-7d59391.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image Source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1 Reason Amazon could be worth more than Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊可能比英伟达更有价值的一个理由</h2>
</div><p>People usually think of Amazon first as an e-commerce business. That's understandable: The online sales division is responsible for most of the company's revenues. But when it comes to its profits, Amazon Web Services reigns supreme. In recent quarters, AWS has provided more than half of Amazon's total operating profits. The division has consistently been posting its highest profit margins in years, fueled by overwhelming demand for its cloud computing network -- demand that is a direct result of the rising use of AI and the tech world's efforts to rapidly develop better models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们通常首先将亚马逊视为一家电子商务公司。这是可以理解的：在线销售部门负责公司大部分收入。但在利润方面，亚马逊网络服务无疑是最重要的。在最近几个季度，AWS 提供了亚马逊总运营利润的一半以上。该部门的利润率在近年来持续创下新高，得益于对其云计算网络的强劲需求——这种需求直接源于 AI 使用的增加以及科技界迅速开发更好模型的努力。</p>
</div><p>Right now, AWS is to cloud computing as Nvidia is to data center GPUs. It has a dominant 30% global market share, with industry-leading profit margins to match. It has nearly as much market share in cloud infrastructure as its two nearest competitors combined. And while it is a major buyer of Nvidia's products, it is, at the end of the day, fairly agnostic to the chip wars. It will buy whatever chips its own customers demand to power their software. If more competition emerges in the AI accelerator space, AWS will have the ability to buy cheaper chips from more manufacturers -- a big deal considering that Nvidia's pricey chips also come with wait times of up to 12 months right now, which limits the ability of AWS to scale up in parallel with customer demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，AWS 在云计算领域的地位就像英伟达在数据中心 GPU 领域的地位。它拥有 30% 的全球市场份额，且利润率处于行业领先水平。它在云基础设施方面的市场份额几乎与其两个最近竞争对手的总和相当。尽管它是英伟达产品的主要买家，但归根结底，它对芯片战争相对中立。它将购买其客户所需的任何芯片来支持他们的软件。如果 AI 加速器领域出现更多竞争，AWS 将能够从更多制造商那里购买更便宜的芯片——这非常重要，因为英伟达的高价芯片目前的交货时间长达 12 个月，这限制了 AWS 与客户需求同步扩展的能力。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts believe that AWS alone could eventually be worth $3 trillion -- which is roughly Nvidia's current market cap. Add in the value of its other businesses, and the case for Amazon outpacing the chipmaker becomes obvious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师认为，单靠 AWS 最终可能价值 3 万亿美元——这大致相当于英伟达目前的市值。再加上其其他业务的价值，亚马逊超越芯片制造商的理由变得显而易见。</p>
</div><p>Competition in the AI chip space will emerge in full force this decade, and AWS should benefit. So don't be surprised to see Amazon's valuation exceed Nvidia's based on its cloud segment's long-term success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 芯片领域的竞争将在本十年全面爆发，AWS 应该会受益。因此，不要惊讶于亚马逊的估值基于其云部门的长期成功超过英伟达。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Be Worth More Than Nvidia by 2030

- Nvidia 市值超过 3 万亿美元，控制数据中心 GPU 市场约 90%。  
- 竞争将导致 Nvidia 市场份额和毛利率下降，长期投资仍具潜力。  
- 亚马逊云服务（AWS）可能因 AI 需求和竞争而超越 Nvidia 市值。  

预测：这只人工智能（AI）股票到 2030 年可能会比英伟达的价值更高