<p>在训练生成性人工智能模型时，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.28%）的图形处理单元（GPU）被行业专家誉为黄金标准。这并不是一个新颖的结论，因为这家半导体巨头已经在 GPU 市场上占据了估计 90% 或更多的份额。</p>
<p>这里更微妙的观点是，英伟达究竟是如何在竞争中建立如此巨大的领先优势的。虽然它并没有明确说明哪些公司购买其 GPU，但华尔街普遍推测，云计算巨头 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 以及 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 是英伟达最大的客户之一。</p>
<p>考虑到这些公司预计仅在今年就会在人工智能基础设施支出上超过 3000 亿美元，我一点也不会感到惊讶，如果这些&#34;七大巨头&#34;成员是英伟达的回头客。</p>
<p>但在典型的巨型人工智能公司之外，还有另一家公司迅速崛起，成为顶级客户。让我们探讨一下 <strong>埃隆·马斯克</strong> 的新创公司 xAI 是如何部署英伟达的硬件，并评估它可能在行业最佳芯片架构上花费多少。</p>
<h2>xAI 与英伟达是如何合作的？</h2>
<p>马斯克的 xAI 是一家构建大型语言模型（LLM）Grok 的初创公司，旨在与其他流行的 LLM（如由 OpenAI 开发的 ChatGPT）竞争。</p>
<p>在过去的一年里，xAI 的主要关注点是构建一台超级计算机来训练其人工智能应用。超级计算机的初始开发阶段名为 Colossus，使用了 10 万块英伟达 GPU。随后，马斯克和他的团队将其 GPU 集群扩大到 20 万块芯片。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwMzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NzQ3MDI3Mi0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwMzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NzQ3MDI3Mi0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>xAI 的下一步是什么？</h2>
<p>几个月前，马斯克与一组开发人员坐下来讨论 Grok 的训练过程以及 xAI 的下一步。或许并不令人惊讶的是，他再次强调了确保更多 GPU 的重要性。</p>
<p>当时，他暗示下一个训练集群将是当前基础设施的五倍。换句话说，Colossus 2 将需要 100 万块芯片（是上述 20 万块的五倍）。他估计这个项目的总成本将在 250 亿到 300 亿美元之间。</p>
<p>然而，根据 I/O Fund 的首席执行官兼首席技术分析师 Beth Kindig 的最新报告，Colossus 2 的成本可能接近 400 亿美元。考虑到英伟达的芯片平均售价在 3 万到 4 万美元之间，马斯克的下一个大项目可能花费数百亿美元并不算不合理——正如 Kindig 所暗示的那样。</p>
<h2>现在投资英伟达股票合适吗？</h2>
<p>目前投资英伟达的主要担忧之一是定制硅的崛起。尽管云计算巨头们今天都在购买其 GPU，但每家公司也都在内部开发自己的芯片。当你再加上 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（或 AMD）在数据中心领域迅速崛起，确实有理由对英伟达当前的增长轨迹感到担忧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57501b8f5d9781b0b935687cb4b7de50.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57501b8f5d9781b0b935687cb4b7de50.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 下一个财年的收入预估数据来自 YCharts；EPS = 每股收益。</p>
<p>查看华尔街对英伟达未来几年的收入和收益预测。虽然公司的增长可能开始显示出一些减速的迹象，但我认为这对于一家成熟企业来说实际上是相当正常的，尤其是在竞争加剧的情况下。</p>
<p>上述财务概况强调的更大观点是，行业分析师仍然预测英伟达在未来几年的增长。此外，如果 xAI 确实在我提到的估计总成本的高端支出，这也表明这家芯片制造商能够在竞争加剧的环境中保持相对的定价能力。</p>
<p>我认为这些趋势表明，即使云计算巨头开始逐渐减少对英伟达的依赖，而 AMD 保持其当前的势头，英伟达仍处于独特的位置，像 xAI 这样的新兴客户愿意吸收来自传统客户的需求。</p>
<p>目前，英伟达的股票交易价格接近一年内最低的市盈率（P/E）倍数。我认为关税、对中国的出口管制以及竞争加剧的担忧都使得市场对这家半导体领导者的短期前景感到悲观。但如果上述预测和马斯克对英伟达 GPU 的积极采购说明了什么，那就是公司在满足需求方面应该不会遇到太大困难。</p>
<p>我认为现在是利用英伟达股票价格波动的绝佳机会，并准备长期持有。</p>

英伟达

<p>埃隆·马斯克的初创公司 xAI 正在大力投资英伟达的 GPU，用于其 AI 模型 Grok，潜在成本可能达到 400 亿美元，用于其超级计算机 Colossus 2。尽管对定制硅和 AMD 竞争的担忧，分析师预测英伟达将继续增长。该公司的股票目前以较低的市盈率交易，呈现出潜在的买入机会，因为来自 xAI 等新兴客户的需求可能会抵消传统客户的多样化影响</p>

<p>When it comes to training generative AI models, <strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 0.28%) graphics processing units (GPUs) are hailed as the gold standard among industry experts. That's not exactly a novel conclusion considering the semiconductor powerhouse has amassed an estimated 90% or more of the GPU market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在训练生成性人工智能模型时，<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 0.28%）的图形处理单元（GPU）被行业专家誉为黄金标准。这并不是一个新颖的结论，因为这家半导体巨头已经在 GPU 市场上占据了估计 90% 或更多的份额。</p>
</div><p>The more subtle idea here is how exactly Nvidia built such a gigantic lead over the competition. While it does not explicitly specify which companies buy its GPUs, it's widely speculated across Wall Street that cloud hyperscalers <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>, as well as <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> are among Nvidia's largest customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里更微妙的观点是，英伟达究竟是如何在竞争中建立如此巨大的领先优势的。虽然它并没有明确说明哪些公司购买其 GPU，但华尔街普遍推测，云计算巨头 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 以及 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 是英伟达最大的客户之一。</p>
</div><p>Considering that these players are forecasting well in excess of $300 billion on AI infrastructure spending just this year, I wouldn't be shocked at all if these &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; members are repeat customers of Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这些公司预计仅在今年就会在人工智能基础设施支出上超过 3000 亿美元，我一点也不会感到惊讶，如果这些&#34;七大巨头&#34;成员是英伟达的回头客。</p>
</div><p>But beyond the typical mega-cap AI names is another company quickly emerging as a top client. Let's explore how Elon Musk's new start-up, xAI, is deploying Nvidia's hardware and assess just how much it could be spending on the industry's best chip architecture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在典型的巨型人工智能公司之外，还有另一家公司迅速崛起，成为顶级客户。让我们探讨一下 <strong>埃隆·马斯克</strong> 的新创公司 xAI 是如何部署英伟达的硬件，并评估它可能在行业最佳芯片架构上花费多少。</p>
</div><h2>How are xAI and Nvidia working together?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>xAI 与英伟达是如何合作的？</h2>
</div><p>Musk's xAI is a start-up building a large language model (LLM) called Grok, which is meant to compete with the likes of other popular LLMs such as ChatGPT, developed by OpenAI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克的 xAI 是一家构建大型语言模型（LLM）Grok 的初创公司，旨在与其他流行的 LLM（如由 OpenAI 开发的 ChatGPT）竞争。</p>
</div><p>For the last year, xAI's primary focus was building a supercomputer to train its AI applications. The initial stage of development for the supercomputer, called Colossus, used 100,000 Nvidia GPUs. Shortly thereafter, Musk and his team scaled up its GPU cluster to 200,000 chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的一年里，xAI 的主要关注点是构建一台超级计算机来训练其人工智能应用。超级计算机的初始开发阶段名为 Colossus，使用了 10 万块英伟达 GPU。随后，马斯克和他的团队将其 GPU 集群扩大到 20 万块芯片。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwMzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NzQ3MDI3Mi0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818036%2Fgettyimages-1487470272-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What's next for xAI?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>xAI 的下一步是什么？</h2>
</div><p>A couple of months ago, Musk sat down with a team of developers and talked shop about how Grok is trained and what's next for xAI. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he doubled down on securing more GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几个月前，马斯克与一组开发人员坐下来讨论 Grok 的训练过程以及 xAI 的下一步。或许并不令人惊讶的是，他再次强调了确保更多 GPU 的重要性。</p>
</div><p>At the time, he implied that the next training cluster would be five times larger than the current infrastructure. In other words, Colossus 2 would need 1 million chips (five times the 200,000 referenced above). He estimated the total cost for this project would fall between $25 billion and $30 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当时，他暗示下一个训练集群将是当前基础设施的五倍。换句话说，Colossus 2 将需要 100 万块芯片（是上述 20 万块的五倍）。他估计这个项目的总成本将在 250 亿到 300 亿美元之间。</p>
</div><p>However, according to a more recent report from Beth Kindig, the CEO and lead tech analyst at the I/O Fund, Colossus 2 may cost closer to $40 billion. Considering Nvidia's chips sell for between $30,000 and $40,000 on average, it's not unreasonable to think Musk's next big project could cost tens of billions of dollars -- as Kindig implies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，根据 I/O Fund 的首席执行官兼首席技术分析师 Beth Kindig 的最新报告，Colossus 2 的成本可能接近 400 亿美元。考虑到英伟达的芯片平均售价在 3 万到 4 万美元之间，马斯克的下一个大项目可能花费数百亿美元并不算不合理——正如 Kindig 所暗示的那样。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在投资英伟达股票合适吗？</h2>
</div><p>One of the main concerns surrounding an investment in Nvidia right now is the rise of custom silicon. Even though the hyperscalers all buy its GPUs today, each is also working on developing its own chips in-house. When you layer on top that <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> (or AMD) is quickly gaining steam in the data center realm, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Nvidia's current growth trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前投资英伟达的主要担忧之一是定制硅的崛起。尽管云计算巨头们今天都在购买其 GPU，但每家公司也都在内部开发自己的芯片。当你再加上 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（或 AMD）在数据中心领域迅速崛起，确实有理由对英伟达当前的增长轨迹感到担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57501b8f5d9781b0b935687cb4b7de50.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57501b8f5d9781b0b935687cb4b7de50.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue Estimates for Next Fiscal Year data by YCharts; EPS = earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 下一个财年的收入预估数据来自 YCharts；EPS = 每股收益。</p>
</div><p>Check out Wall Street's revenue and earnings forecasts above for Nvidia over the next couple of years. While the company's growth may begin to show some signs of deceleration, I'd say this is actually quite normal for a mature business, especially in the face of rising competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看华尔街对英伟达未来几年的收入和收益预测。虽然公司的增长可能开始显示出一些减速的迹象，但我认为这对于一家成熟企业来说实际上是相当正常的，尤其是在竞争加剧的情况下。</p>
</div><p>The bigger idea underscored by the financial profile above is that industry analysts are still forecasting growth for Nvidia over the next couple of years. In addition, if xAI does spend near the higher end of the estimated total cost I referenced above, this also showcases that the chipmaker is able to maintain some relative pricing power despite the intensifying competitive landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上述财务概况强调的更大观点是，行业分析师仍然预测英伟达在未来几年的增长。此外，如果 xAI 确实在我提到的估计总成本的高端支出，这也表明这家芯片制造商能够在竞争加剧的环境中保持相对的定价能力。</p>
</div><p>I think these trends suggest that even if the cloud hyperscalers begin to diversify away from Nvidia, and AMD maintains its current momentum, it is still in a unique position, with emerging customers such as xAI willing to absorb demand from traditional customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这些趋势表明，即使云计算巨头开始逐渐减少对英伟达的依赖，而 AMD 保持其当前的势头，英伟达仍处于独特的位置，像 xAI 这样的新兴客户愿意吸收来自传统客户的需求。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Nvidia stock is trading near its lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple in a year. I think concerns around tariffs, export controls in China, and rising competition have all made for a short-term souring on the semiconductor leader. But if the forecasts above and Musk's aggressive buying of Nvidia GPUs say anything, it's that the company shouldn't have much trouble fulfilling demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英伟达的股票交易价格接近一年内最低的市盈率（P/E）倍数。我认为关税、对中国的出口管制以及竞争加剧的担忧都使得市场对这家半导体领导者的短期前景感到悲观。但如果上述预测和马斯克对英伟达 GPU 的积极采购说明了什么，那就是公司在满足需求方面应该不会遇到太大困难。</p>
</div><p>I think now is a great opportunity to take advantage of Nvidia's stock price action and prepare to hold for the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为现在是利用英伟达股票价格波动的绝佳机会，并准备长期持有。</p>
</div>

Did Elon Musk Just Give Nvidia Investors 40 Billion Reasons to Cheer?

- Nvidia 的 GPU 在生成 AI 模型训练中被视为行业标准，市场份额超过 90%。
- Elon Musk 的初创公司 xAI 正在使用 Nvidia 硬件开发大型语言模型 Grok，计划投入 250 亿至 400 亿美元。
- 尽管面临竞争，分析师仍预测 Nvidia 将继续增长，当前股价接近一年最低市盈率。

埃隆·马斯克是否刚刚给英伟达的投资者提供了 400 亿美元的欢呼理由？