<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.07%) 股票一直是长期投资者的热门赢家。然而，该公司现在正面临困境。过去一年，该股票几乎没有上涨，收入仅比 2022 年略有增长。这导致该股票被 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 超越，后者的增长速度远快于这家 iPhone 制造商。</p>
<p>到今年年底，我相信另一只大型科技股将超越苹果的市值。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.18%) 由于其利润扩张、人工智能（AI）的增长以及苹果即将面临的诉讼，似乎有望超越苹果。以下是我预测亚马逊股票将在 2025 年市值上超过苹果的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的收入增长更快</h2>
<p>与苹果相比，亚马逊在收入增长方面占有优势。过去五年，该公司的收入增长了 102%，而苹果的收入增长为 46%，这主要发生在疫情后的激增期间。亚马逊在更大的收入基础上也在比苹果更快地增长，过去 12 个月的收入为 6500 亿美元，而苹果为 4000 亿美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNzUvYXNpYW4tc2hvcHBlci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNzUvYXNpYW4tc2hvcHBlci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>亚马逊的收入为何能在如此大规模下快速增长？它在两个巨大的可寻址市场中运作：电子商务和云计算。在线购物仍在（缓慢地）超越传统零售，消费者的支出份额将进一步推动亚马逊在 2025 年的增长。人工智能已成为亚马逊云计算部门 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的福音，推动了上个季度 17% 的年收入增长。该部门的利润率极高。</p>
<p>苹果没有这样的顺风，而亚马逊将在今年剩余时间内继续受益。</p>
<h2>更大的利润率扩张，政府诉讼</h2>
<p>在损益表上，亚马逊在未来一年及以后扩展利润率的难度应该比苹果小。股市是前瞻性的，将继续对亚马逊的经营杠杆潜力给予溢价。如果苹果因关税成本受到影响，其利润率可能会朝相反方向移动。苹果的供应链已经优化到极限，过去 12 个月的经营利润率为 32%，而亚马逊为 11%。</p>
<p>另一个可能影响苹果盈利能力的因素是即将到来的诉讼，涉及其默认搜索引擎支付和 App Store 费用。谷歌搜索的垄断诉讼的补救措施可能是阻止其每年向苹果支付 200 亿美元（或更多）以使谷歌搜索成为 Safari 浏览器的默认引擎。这是苹果每年 1270 亿美元经营收入的一个巨大比例，可能会在一夜之间蒸发。</p>
<p>法官已经裁定，苹果需要允许开发者在其应用程序中提供其他支付方式，让他们绕过苹果在应用内购买中收取的 30% 费用。如果应用程序规避这些支付，苹果的另一个巨大利润来源将消失。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的整体估值更便宜</h2>
<p>在以过去的收益定义时，苹果股票看起来比亚马逊稍微便宜，市盈率（P/E）为 33，而亚马逊为 34。然而，当我们考虑到亚马逊的增长潜力和苹果业务面临的风险时，亚马逊股票的未来看起来更为光明。</p>
<p>到今年年底，亚马逊的经营利润率将继续扩张，伴随着其持久的收入增长，这应该是显而易见的。苹果的业务面临失去两个巨大利润来源的风险，这将抑制其整体盈利能力。</p>
<p>今天，苹果过去 12 个月的经营收入为 1270 亿美元，远远超过亚马逊的 720 亿美元。今天的这一差距是亚马逊股票市值为 2.18 万亿美元，而苹果为 3.15 万亿美元的原因。在 2025 年剩余时间里，我预计这一收益差距将继续缩小，这将导致投资者对亚马逊的估值超过苹果，因此它将在市值上领先于苹果。</p>

亚马逊

苹果

<p>预计到 2025 年底，亚马逊的市值将超过苹果，这主要得益于其更快的收入增长和利润率扩张。在过去五年中，亚马逊的收入增长了 102%，而苹果仅增长了 46%。亚马逊在电子商务和云计算方面表现强劲，而苹果则面临诉讼和潜在利润率下降的挑战。尽管亚马逊的市盈率略低，但其增长潜力以及对苹果盈利能力的风险表明，亚马逊的股票未来更为光明</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.07%) stock has been a blockbuster winner for long-term investors. However, the company is now hitting a rough patch. The stock is barely up over the past year, with revenue only slightly up from 2022. This has caused the stock to be dethroned as the largest company in the world by market cap by <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, which are growing much faster than the iPhone maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.07%) 股票一直是长期投资者的热门赢家。然而，该公司现在正面临困境。过去一年，该股票几乎没有上涨，收入仅比 2022 年略有增长。这导致该股票被 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 超越，后者的增长速度远快于这家 iPhone 制造商。</p>
</div><p>By the end of this year, I believe another big tech stock will surpass Apple in market capitalization. <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.18%) looks poised to leapfrog Apple due to its margin expansion, growth of artificial intelligence (AI), and Apple's looming lawsuits. Here's why I predict Amazon stock will finish 2025 ahead of Apple in market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到今年年底，我相信另一只大型科技股将超越苹果的市值。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.18%) 由于其利润扩张、人工智能（AI）的增长以及苹果即将面临的诉讼，似乎有望超越苹果。以下是我预测亚马逊股票将在 2025 年市值上超过苹果的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f09329d101d79df6763f286333667f0d.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon is recording faster revenue growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的收入增长更快</h2>
</div><p>One notch in Amazon's belt compared to Apple is revenue growth. The company has grown its revenue by 102% in the last five years, compared to 46% for Apple, which mostly came during the post-pandemic surge. Amazon is growing faster than Apple at a larger revenue base, too, generating $650 billion in revenue over the last 12 months vs. $400 billion at Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与苹果相比，亚马逊在收入增长方面占有优势。过去五年，该公司的收入增长了 102%，而苹果的收入增长为 46%，这主要发生在疫情后的激增期间。亚马逊在更大的收入基础上也在比苹果更快地增长，过去 12 个月的收入为 6500 亿美元，而苹果为 4000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNzUvYXNpYW4tc2hvcHBlci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818375%2Fasian-shopper.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>How is Amazon's revenue growing so quickly at such a large scale? It plays in two huge addressable markets: e-commerce and cloud computing. Online shopping is still (slowly) overtaking traditional retail in consumer wallet share, which will drive even further growth for Amazon in 2025. AI has become a boon for Amazon's cloud computing division in Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accelerated revenue growth to 17% year over year last quarter. This segment has sky-high profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的收入为何能在如此大规模下快速增长？它在两个巨大的可寻址市场中运作：电子商务和云计算。在线购物仍在（缓慢地）超越传统零售，消费者的支出份额将进一步推动亚马逊在 2025 年的增长。人工智能已成为亚马逊云计算部门 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的福音，推动了上个季度 17% 的年收入增长。该部门的利润率极高。</p>
</div><p>Apple does not have this tailwind at its back, while Amazon will keep benefiting throughout the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果没有这样的顺风，而亚马逊将在今年剩余时间内继续受益。</p>
</div><h2>More profit margin expansion, government lawsuits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更大的利润率扩张，政府诉讼</h2>
</div><p>Moving down the income statement, Amazon should have an easier time than Apple expanding its profit margin over the rest of this year and beyond. The stock market is forward-looking and will place a continued premium on Amazon's operating leverage potential. Apple's profit margins may move in the other direction if it gets hurt by tariff costs on imports to the United States from China. Its supply chain is already optimized to the gills, posting 32% operating margins over the last 12 months compared to 11% at Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在损益表上，亚马逊在未来一年及以后扩展利润率的难度应该比苹果小。股市是前瞻性的，将继续对亚马逊的经营杠杆潜力给予溢价。如果苹果因关税成本受到影响，其利润率可能会朝相反方向移动。苹果的供应链已经优化到极限，过去 12 个月的经营利润率为 32%，而亚马逊为 11%。</p>
</div><p>Another factor that could hurt Apple's profitability is the looming lawsuits coming for its default search engine payment and App Store fees. A remedy in Google Search's monopoly lawsuit could be to prevent its $20 billion (or more) annual payment to Apple for making Google Search the default engine on the Safari browser. This is a huge percentage of Apple's $127 billion in annual operating income that could evaporate overnight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能影响苹果盈利能力的因素是即将到来的诉讼，涉及其默认搜索引擎支付和 App Store 费用。谷歌搜索的垄断诉讼的补救措施可能是阻止其每年向苹果支付 200 亿美元（或更多）以使谷歌搜索成为 Safari 浏览器的默认引擎。这是苹果每年 1270 亿美元经营收入的一个巨大比例，可能会在一夜之间蒸发。</p>
</div><p>A judge already ruled that Apple will need to let developers offer other payment methods within their applications, letting them bypass Apple's 30% fee on in-app purchases. If applications sidestep these payments, another huge cash cow for Apple will disappear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法官已经裁定，苹果需要允许开发者在其应用程序中提供其他支付方式，让他们绕过苹果在应用内购买中收取的 30% 费用。如果应用程序规避这些支付，苹果的另一个巨大利润来源将消失。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9a72a2d11d6592e9c4440e3af46dcd34.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon has a cheaper holistic valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的整体估值更便宜</h2>
</div><p>Apple stock looks slightly cheaper than Amazon when defined by trailing earnings, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 33 compared to 34 for Amazon. However, when we factor in Amazon's growth potential and the risks facing Apple's business, the future looks much brighter for Amazon's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在以过去的收益定义时，苹果股票看起来比亚马逊稍微便宜，市盈率（P/E）为 33，而亚马逊为 34。然而，当我们考虑到亚马逊的增长潜力和苹果业务面临的风险时，亚马逊股票的未来看起来更为光明。</p>
</div><p>By the end of this year, it should be clear that Amazon's operating margin will keep expanding along with its durable revenue growth. Apple's business is at risk of losing two huge cash cows that will dampen its overall profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到今年年底，亚马逊的经营利润率将继续扩张，伴随着其持久的收入增长，这应该是显而易见的。苹果的业务面临失去两个巨大利润来源的风险，这将抑制其整体盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Today, Apple's operating income of $127 billion greatly surpasses Amazon's $72 billion over the past 12 months. This gap today is why Amazon stock has a market cap of $2.18 trillion vs. Apple's $3.15 trillion. Through the rest of 2025, I expect this earnings gap to keep closing, which will cause investors to value Amazon more than Apple, and is why it will finish the year ahead in market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，苹果过去 12 个月的经营收入为 1270 亿美元，远远超过亚马逊的 720 亿美元。今天的这一差距是亚马逊股票市值为 2.18 万亿美元，而苹果为 3.15 万亿美元的原因。在 2025 年剩余时间里，我预计这一收益差距将继续缩小，这将导致投资者对亚马逊的估值超过苹果，因此它将在市值上领先于苹果。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This AI Stock Will Be Worth More Than Apple By the End of 2025

- 苹果公司面临增长乏力，市值被英伟达和微软超越。  
- 亚马逊在过去五年收入增长 102%，预计将超越苹果。  
- 苹果的盈利能力受诉讼和关税影响，亚马逊则持续扩大利润率。

预测：这只 AI 股票将在 2025 年底时市值超过苹果