<p>了解股票的历史趋势是明智的，尤其是当它位于像 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 1.16%）（GOOGL 1.32%）这样的周期性行业时。Alphabet 的大部分收入来自广告，这些收入会随着经济预期的变化而波动。虽然经济前景不确定，但这次 Alphabet 的快速价格下跌还有更多原因。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的股票目前的交易价格约为过去 12 个月盈利的 17 倍，这一水平仅在 2008 年、2012 年和 2022 年三次达到过。这是该公司第四次达到如此低的估值水平。然而，每次达到这些水平时，股票在一年后都会大幅上涨。</p>
<p>这种反弹在 2025 年可能再次发生吗？还是有其他因素在起作用？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwODYvc3VycHJpc2VkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWNlbGxwaG9uZS1vdXRzaWRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwODYvc3VycHJpc2VkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWNlbGxwaG9uZS1vdXRzaWRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 总是从这些低估值中反弹</h2>
<p>尽管 Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）为 17.8，略高于其历史最低点 16.1（该水平在几周前市场反弹之前达到），但仍然处于历史低位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13714053bf1e3223b506134715ce59e8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13714053bf1e3223b506134715ce59e8.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>2008 年和 2012 年的经济前景黯淡，这就是股票达到低位的原因。此外，在 2022 年初，大家都相信经济将进入衰退，尽管这种情况并未出现。</p>
<p>不过，在触及这些低点后，Alphabet 的股票在接下来的一年中表现出色。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>日期</th>
<th>市盈率低点</th>
<th>1 年股票价格百分比上涨</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2008 年 11 月 20 日</td>
<td>16.2</td>
<td>120%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012 年 7 月 10 日</td>
<td>16.9</td>
<td>56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 年 11 月 2 日</td>
<td>16.6</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>那么，Alphabet 是否准备在接下来的一年中实现惊人的收益？</p>
<h2>这次情况不同吗？</h2>
<p>虽然 Alphabet 面临经济不确定性，但其商业模式也受到攻击。在过去三次 Alphabet 达到这些低点时，没有人质疑谷歌搜索引擎在未来五年内是否会被使用。这一次，围绕它如何与人工智能驱动的搜索竞争存在疑问。</p>
<p>然而，考虑到市场对 Alphabet 的估值，似乎已经假定谷歌搜索引擎已经灭绝。然而，谷歌搜索的收入在上个季度增长了 10%。管理层将这一增长归因于其 AI 摘要功能的受欢迎程度，该功能使用生成性 AI 来总结搜索结果。这正是一些投资者担心会取代谷歌搜索的功能，因此市场对 Alphabet 的股票做出悲观判断似乎很奇怪。</p>
<p>我认为市场低估了大多数人固守旧习的程度。许多人会选择使用谷歌的功能进行搜索，因为这是他们一直以来的做法，而不是直接转向生成性 AI 平台。这在长期内可能是一个错误，但我们在过去一年中见证了谷歌的韧性以及其保持相关性的创新。</p>
<p>因此，尽管围绕 Alphabet 下跌的情况这次有所不同，但我相信结果将是相同的。随着 Alphabet 在全年继续发布强劲的业绩，市场将意识到悲观情绪是不必要的，Alphabet 应当拥有一个正常的估值（在低到中 20 倍之间），与其大型科技同行相当。</p>
<p>因此，我认为 Alphabet 是一个强烈的买入，因为其股票应该受益于持续的两位数增长和盈利倍数的扩张。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>Alphabet 的股票市盈率已达到历史低点 17，这是它之前仅出现过三次，每次都在一年内带来了显著的收益。尽管当前经济不确定性和来自人工智能的竞争，Alphabet 的搜索收入在上个季度增长了 10%，显示出其韧性。分析师认为市场可能低估了 Alphabet 保持其相关性的能力，建议该股票是一个强劲的买入，具有两位数增长和盈利扩张的潜力</p>

<p>Understanding a stock's historical trends is smart, especially if it's based in a cyclical industry like <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.16%)(GOOGL 1.32%). Most of Alphabet's revenue comes from advertising, which can rise and fall alongside economic expectations. While the economic outlook is uncertain, there is more to Alphabet's rapid price decline this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解股票的历史趋势是明智的，尤其是当它位于像 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 1.16%）（GOOGL 1.32%）这样的周期性行业时。Alphabet 的大部分收入来自广告，这些收入会随着经济预期的变化而波动。虽然经济前景不确定，但这次 Alphabet 的快速价格下跌还有更多原因。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's stock now trades for around 17 times trailing earnings, a level it last reached only three times: 2008, 2012, and 2022. This is the company's fourth trip to a valuation level this low. However, each time it has reached these levels, the stock is much higher only a year later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的股票目前的交易价格约为过去 12 个月盈利的 17 倍，这一水平仅在 2008 年、2012 年和 2022 年三次达到过。这是该公司第四次达到如此低的估值水平。然而，每次达到这些水平时，股票在一年后都会大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>Is this turnaround possible again in 2025? Or is there something else at play?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种反弹在 2025 年可能再次发生吗？还是有其他因素在起作用？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgwODYvc3VycHJpc2VkLXBlcnNvbi1sb29raW5nLWF0LWNlbGxwaG9uZS1vdXRzaWRlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818086%2Fsurprised-person-looking-at-cellphone-outside.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet has always rallied from these low valuations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 总是从这些低估值中反弹</h2>
</div><p>Although Alphabet's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.8 is slightly off its all-time low of 16.1, which it hit just a few weeks ago before the market rallied this week, it's still historically low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）为 17.8，略高于其历史最低点 16.1（该水平在几周前市场反弹之前达到），但仍然处于历史低位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13714053bf1e3223b506134715ce59e8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13714053bf1e3223b506134715ce59e8.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The economic outlook in 2008 and 2012 was grim, which is why the stock reached low levels. Additionally, at the start of 2022, everyone was convinced that the economy was headed for a recession, although that never surfaced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2008 年和 2012 年的经济前景黯淡，这就是股票达到低位的原因。此外，在 2022 年初，大家都相信经济将进入衰退，尽管这种情况并未出现。</p>
</div><p>Still, after touching those lows, Alphabet's stock performed phenomenally over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，在触及这些低点后，Alphabet 的股票在接下来的一年中表现出色。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Date</th>
<th>P/E Ratio Low</th>
<th>1 Year Stock Price Percent Rise</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>11/20/2008</td>
<td>16.2</td>
<td>120%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7/10/2012</td>
<td>16.9</td>
<td>56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11/02/2022</td>
<td>16.6</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>日期</th>
<th>市盈率低点</th>
<th>1 年股票价格百分比上涨</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2008 年 11 月 20 日</td>
<td>16.2</td>
<td>120%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012 年 7 月 10 日</td>
<td>16.9</td>
<td>56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 年 11 月 2 日</td>
<td>16.6</td>
<td>47%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So, is Alphabet primed to post phenomenal gains over the next year?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，Alphabet 是否准备在接下来的一年中实现惊人的收益？</p>
</div><h2>Is this time different?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这次情况不同吗？</h2>
</div><p>While Alphabet faces economic uncertainty, its business model is also under attack. The past three times Alphabet reached those lows, nobody questioned whether the Google search engine would be used in the next five years. This time, there are questions surrounding how it will fare against AI-powered search.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Alphabet 面临经济不确定性，但其商业模式也受到攻击。在过去三次 Alphabet 达到这些低点时，没有人质疑谷歌搜索引擎在未来五年内是否会被使用。这一次，围绕它如何与人工智能驱动的搜索竞争存在疑问。</p>
</div><p>However, with the multiple that the markets have assigned Alphabet, it's assumed that the Google search engine is already extinct. Yet, Google Search revenue <em>increased</em> by 10% last quarter. Management attributes this rise to the popularity of its AI summaries feature, which uses generative AI to summarize the search results. This is the exact feature that some investors are worried about replacing Google search, so it seems odd that the market is dooming Alphabet's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考虑到市场对 Alphabet 的估值，似乎已经假定谷歌搜索引擎已经灭绝。然而，谷歌搜索的收入在上个季度增长了 10%。管理层将这一增长归因于其 AI 摘要功能的受欢迎程度，该功能使用生成性 AI 来总结搜索结果。这正是一些投资者担心会取代谷歌搜索的功能，因此市场对 Alphabet 的股票做出悲观判断似乎很奇怪。</p>
</div><p>I believe the market is underestimating how stuck most people are in their ways. Many will opt to use Google's feature set for searches because it's what they've always done, rather than go straight to a generative AI platform. This may be a mistake over the long term, but we've seen Google's resilience over the past year and also its innovations to maintain its relevance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为市场低估了大多数人固守旧习的程度。许多人会选择使用谷歌的功能进行搜索，因为这是他们一直以来的做法，而不是直接转向生成性 AI 平台。这在长期内可能是一个错误，但我们在过去一年中见证了谷歌的韧性以及其保持相关性的创新。</p>
</div><p>So, while the circumstances surrounding Alphabet's drawdown are different this time, I believe the outcome will be the same. As Alphabet continues to post strong results throughout the year, the market will realize that the pessimism was unwarranted and that Alphabet deserves to have a normal valuation (in the low to mid-20s) as its big tech peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管围绕 Alphabet 下跌的情况这次有所不同，但我相信结果将是相同的。随着 Alphabet 在全年继续发布强劲的业绩，市场将意识到悲观情绪是不必要的，Alphabet 应当拥有一个正常的估值（在低到中 20 倍之间），与其大型科技同行相当。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I think Alphabet is a strong buy because its stock should benefit from persistent double-digit growth and earnings multiple expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我认为 Alphabet 是一个强烈的买入，因为其股票应该受益于持续的两位数增长和盈利倍数的扩张。</p>
</div>

Alphabet's Stock Just Did Something It Has Only Done 3 Other Times in History. Each Time the Stock Is at Least 47% Higher a Year Later.

- Alphabet 股票在历史低估值时通常会反弹，过去三次均如此。  
- 当前市盈率为 17，接近历史低点，市场对其未来表现持悲观态度。  
- 尽管面临经济不确定性，Alphabet 的搜索收入仍增长 10%，显示出其韧性。  

Alphabet 的股票刚刚完成了一项在历史上仅发生过三次的举动。每次这种情况发生后，股票在一年后至少上涨 47%