<p>如果你在 2022 年 11 月 30 日投资了 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的股票，并持有至今，那么你的投资将增长近八倍。为什么选择这个日期？因为这是 OpenAI 商业发布 ChatGPT 并引发人工智能（AI）革命的日子。</p>
<p>在过去的几年里，几乎所有与 AI 相关的事物都吸引了成长型投资者的关注。但现在，随着我们进入 AI 故事的几年，人们开始寻找更具体的机会，超越更广泛的 AI 范畴。</p>
<p>在过去几个月中，量子计算作为 AI 的 “下一个大事” 迅速崛起。在流行的量子计算股票中，<strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>（RGTI 2.56%）是其中之一，其股票在过去六个月内上涨了 521%（截至本文撰写时）。</p>
<p>随着量子计算前景在投资界获得更多动力，Rigetti 是否有可能成为下一个英伟达？</p>
<h2>量子计算的机会巨大，但……</h2>
<p>如果你对量子计算不太了解，可能是因为这项技术目前尚未广泛应用。像 <strong>IonQ</strong>、<strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>，当然还有 Rigetti Computing 等公司在过去几个月中已成为量子计算运动的前沿。</p>
<p>考虑到量子计算的可寻址市场预计在未来 15 年内将达到 1310 亿美元，投资者涌向这些新兴公司以颠覆 AI 领域是可以理解的。</p>
<p>虽然一个大市场可能暗示长期增长前景，但聪明的投资者明白，这些动态并不一定使其成为当前一个可靠的投资机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgyNzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NzMxMDM3Ny0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgyNzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NzMxMDM3Ny0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>……投资于 AI 领域的这一部分可能会很冒险</h2>
<p>该图表展示了 Rigetti Computing 在过去一年的收入和净亏损。正如我提到的，量子计算在今天的 AI 应用中并没有太多的用例。这一点通过 Rigetti 每年仅有 1080 万美元的微薄销售额得到了强调。虽然市场规模预计在未来几年将增长数十亿美元，但更微妙的主题是，开发量子计算技术将需要大量投资——这一趋势也通过 Rigetti 不断上升的亏损得到了体现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4827efa6cb7307723487a40fec6ad9c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4827efa6cb7307723487a40fec6ad9c.png"/></p>
<p>RGTI 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>每年产生 1000 万美元的销售额，同时烧掉 2 亿美元的资本，这并不是增长的良方。这一财务状况使得很难为 Rigetti 的 30 亿美元市值辩护。</p>
<h2>今天投资 Rigetti Computing 是否就像在 2022 年抓住英伟达的股票？</h2>
<p>将量子计算的潜力与围绕 AI 的乐观叙事进行比较是很容易的。问题在于，在 2022 年，英伟达的核心 AI 产品和服务——即其 GPU——已经被用于许多其他应用。我提到这一点是为了说明，英伟达已经为其芯片组建立了成熟的产品市场契合度——管理层只是意识到 GPU 将作为开发生成性 AI 的重要硬件，因此价值主张已经存在。</p>
<p>我认为这并不一定适用于 Rigetti 在量子计算中所试图实现的目标。换句话说，该公司在 AI 基础设施上的投资可能永远无法完全回报。因此，我认为 Rigetti 是一只极具投机性的股票。</p>
<p>在我看来，Rigetti 股价的抛物线式上涨更多地根植于动量交易——这是模因股票常常表现出的特征。随着量子计算的篇章继续书写，我怀疑聪明的投资者会意识到，AI 领域的最大参与者如英伟达、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 已经在这一领域扎稳了脚跟——这使得 Rigetti 在长期内真正竞争变得更加困难。</p>
<p>与投资英伟达不同，我认为 Rigetti 的估值在未来几年将显著回归。因此，我认为股价可能会经历显著的回调。</p>
<p>最终，我会选择不投资 Rigetti，因为我并不认为该公司是真正的量子计算先锋——当然不是以英伟达推动 AI 运动的那种变革性方式。</p>

英伟达

RGTI

<p>Rigetti Computing 的股票在六个月内上涨了 521%，这让人联想到英伟达在 ChatGPT 发布后的成功。然而，尽管量子计算具有潜力，Rigetti 的年销售额仅为 1080 万美元，而亏损达 2 亿美元，这引发了人们对其 30 亿美元市值的担忧。与英伟达拥有成熟产品不同，Rigetti 缺乏经过验证的市场适应性。该股票的上涨似乎具有投机性，作者建议不要投资，并预测未来会出现显著的估值正常化</p>

<p>If you invested in <strong>Nvidia</strong> stock on Nov. 30, 2022 and held your position until today, then you would be up on your investment by nearly eightfold. Why that date? Because this is the day OpenAI commercially released ChatGPT and spawned the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在 2022 年 11 月 30 日投资了 <strong>英伟达</strong> 的股票，并持有至今，那么你的投资将增长近八倍。为什么选择这个日期？因为这是 OpenAI 商业发布 ChatGPT 并引发人工智能（AI）革命的日子。</p>
</div><p>For the last few years, just about anything touching or referencing AI garnered attention from growth investors. But now that we're a few years into the AI saga, people are beginning to look for more specific opportunities underneath the broader AI umbrella.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的几年里，几乎所有与 AI 相关的事物都吸引了成长型投资者的关注。但现在，随着我们进入 AI 故事的几年，人们开始寻找更具体的机会，超越更广泛的 AI 范畴。</p>
</div><p>For the last several months, quantum computing has burst onto the scene as one of AI's &#34;next big things.&#34; And among popular quantum computing stocks is <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 2.56%) -- which has seen its shares rise by 521% in just the last six months (at the time of this writing).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几个月中，量子计算作为 AI 的 “下一个大事” 迅速崛起。在流行的量子计算股票中，<strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>（RGTI 2.56%）是其中之一，其股票在过去六个月内上涨了 521%（截至本文撰写时）。</p>
</div><p>As the prospects of quantum computing gain more momentum in the investment world, could Rigetti be on its way to becoming the next Nvidia?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着量子计算前景在投资界获得更多动力，Rigetti 是否有可能成为下一个英伟达？</p>
</div><h2>The quantum computing opportunity is enormous, but...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子计算的机会巨大，但……</h2>
</div><p>If you're unfamiliar with quantum computing, it's likely because the technology isn't widely scaled today. Companies such as <strong>IonQ</strong>, <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>, and of course, Rigetti Computing have emerged at the forefront of the quantum computing movement over the last several months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你对量子计算不太了解，可能是因为这项技术目前尚未广泛应用。像 <strong>IonQ</strong>、<strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>，当然还有 Rigetti Computing 等公司在过去几个月中已成为量子计算运动的前沿。</p>
</div><p>Considering the total addressable market for quantum computing is expected to reach $131 billion over the next 15 years, it's understandable why investors would be flocking to these new players disrupting the AI landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到量子计算的可寻址市场预计在未来 15 年内将达到 1310 亿美元，投资者涌向这些新兴公司以颠覆 AI 领域是可以理解的。</p>
</div><p>While a large market could suggest long-term growth prospects, smart investors understand that these dynamics don't necessarily make it a sound investment opportunity right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然一个大市场可能暗示长期增长前景，但聪明的投资者明白，这些动态并不一定使其成为当前一个可靠的投资机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgyNzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0NzMxMDM3Ny0zLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818279%2Fgettyimages-1347310377-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>... investing in this pocket of the AI realm could be dicey</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>……投资于 AI 领域的这一部分可能会很冒险</h2>
</div><p>The chart illustrates Rigetti Computing's revenue and net loss over the last year. As I alluded to, quantum computing doesn't have many use cases for today's AI applications. This is underscored by Rigetti's paltry $10.8 million in annual sales. While the market size is expected to grow by billions over the coming years, the more subtle theme is that developing quantum computing technology is going to require hefty investments -- another trend that's indicated by Rigetti's soaring losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该图表展示了 Rigetti Computing 在过去一年的收入和净亏损。正如我提到的，量子计算在今天的 AI 应用中并没有太多的用例。这一点通过 Rigetti 每年仅有 1080 万美元的微薄销售额得到了强调。虽然市场规模预计在未来几年将增长数十亿美元，但更微妙的主题是，开发量子计算技术将需要大量投资——这一趋势也通过 Rigetti 不断上升的亏损得到了体现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4827efa6cb7307723487a40fec6ad9c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c4827efa6cb7307723487a40fec6ad9c.png"/></p>
<p>RGTI Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RGTI 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Generating $10 million in sales while burning $200 million in capital a year isn't exactly a recipe for growth. This financial profile makes it hard to justify Rigetti's $3 billion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每年产生 1000 万美元的销售额，同时烧掉 2 亿美元的资本，这并不是增长的良方。这一财务状况使得很难为 Rigetti 的 30 亿美元市值辩护。</p>
</div><h2>Could investing in Rigetti Computing today be like catching Nvidia stock in 2022?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今天投资 Rigetti Computing 是否就像在 2022 年抓住英伟达的股票？</h2>
</div><p>It's easy to compare the potential around quantum computing to the bullish narratives that surround AI. The thing is that back in 2022, Nvidia's core AI products and services -- namely its GPUs -- were already being used for a host of other applications. I bring this up to make that point that Nvidia already had an established product-market fit for its chipsets -- management simply realized that GPUs would serve as an integral piece of hardware for developing generative AI; hence the value proposition was already there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将量子计算的潜力与围绕 AI 的乐观叙事进行比较是很容易的。问题在于，在 2022 年，英伟达的核心 AI 产品和服务——即其 GPU——已经被用于许多其他应用。我提到这一点是为了说明，英伟达已经为其芯片组建立了成熟的产品市场契合度——管理层只是意识到 GPU 将作为开发生成性 AI 的重要硬件，因此价值主张已经存在。</p>
</div><p>I don't think this necessarily holds true for what Rigetti is trying to achieve in quantum computing. Another way of saying this is that the company's investments in AI infrastructure might never fully pay off. For this reason, I see Rigetti as an extremely speculative stock to own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这并不一定适用于 Rigetti 在量子计算中所试图实现的目标。换句话说，该公司在 AI 基础设施上的投资可能永远无法完全回报。因此，我认为 Rigetti 是一只极具投机性的股票。</p>
</div><p>To me, the parabolic rise in Rigetti's stock price is rooted more in momentum trading -- a feature often exhibited by meme stocks. As the quantum computing chapter continues to be written, I suspect savvy investors will come to realize that AI's biggest players such as Nvidia, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong> already have firm footing in this space -- making it even harder for Rigetti to truly compete in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，Rigetti 股价的抛物线式上涨更多地根植于动量交易——这是模因股票常常表现出的特征。随着量子计算的篇章继续书写，我怀疑聪明的投资者会意识到，AI 领域的最大参与者如英伟达、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 已经在这一领域扎稳了脚跟——这使得 Rigetti 在长期内真正竞争变得更加困难。</p>
</div><p>Unlike an investment in Nvidia, I see Rigetti's valuation normalizing significantly over the next few years. Hence, I think the stock price could experience a significant drawdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与投资英伟达不同，我认为 Rigetti 的估值在未来几年将显著回归。因此，我认为股价可能会经历显著的回调。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, I would pass on investing in Rigetti, as I do not see the company as a true pioneer in quantum computing -- certainly not in the same transformative way that Nvidia supercharged the AI movement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，我会选择不投资 Rigetti，因为我并不认为该公司是真正的量子计算先锋——当然不是以英伟达推动 AI 运动的那种变革性方式。</p>
</div>

Could Rigetti Computing Be the Next Nvidia?

- 投资者若在 2022 年 11 月 30 日购买 Nvidia 股票，现已获利近八倍。  
- Rigetti Computing 股票在过去六个月上涨 521%，但年销售额仅为 1080 万美元。  
- 由于缺乏实际应用，Rigetti 被视为高度投机的股票，未来可能面临显著回调。  

Rigetti Computing 能否成为下一个英伟达？