<p>投资者对 <strong>苹果</strong> 的热爱由来已久。多年来，它一直是全球市值最大的公司，这得益于 iPhone 的增长。如今，随着苹果的收入增长放缓，<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 等竞争对手已将其超越。</p>
<p>虽然微软和英伟达是达到 10 万亿美元市值的稳妥选择，但我认为另一个大型科技公司会更早实现这一目标：<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.18%）。其双重增长引擎和利润率扩张潜力使得该公司有望成为首个市值超过 10 万亿美元的股票。</p>
<p>以下是为什么亚马逊——而不是苹果——将成为首个达到 10 万亿美元市值的股票的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNjUvb25saW5lLXNob3BwaW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNjUvb25saW5lLXNob3BwaW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>多重增长引擎</h2>
<p>亚马逊的特别之处在于其在两个价值数千亿美元的不同领域的领先地位，这些领域最终将发展成为数万亿美元的机会。这两个领域分别是电子商务和云计算。</p>
<p>电子商务在美国的零售销售中仍不到 20%，并且在过去几十年中稳步增长。没有理由认为这一增长轨迹会在短期内放缓。</p>
<p>在过去 12 个月中，亚马逊的北美和国际销售总额超过 5000 亿美元。考虑到电子商务普及的长期顺风、全球 GDP 的增长以及通货膨胀，我相信这些领域的收入将轻松翻倍，超过 1 万亿美元，并且仍有很大的增长空间。</p>
<p>云计算正受到人工智能（AI）的强劲推动，曾被认为有 1 万亿美元可寻址市场的行业，现在变得更大。亚马逊的云计算部门——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）——将在 2025 年计划的 1000 亿美元资本支出中占据大部分。</p>
<p>AWS 以每年 17% 的速度增长，收入达到 1120 亿美元，我认为它有明确的路径在未来十年及更长时间内扩展到 2000 亿美元，最终达到 3000 亿美元的收入。</p>
<h2>较其他大型科技公司更好的利润扩张潜力</h2>
<p>亚马逊在大型科技公司中之所以特别，是因为其在不断扩大的规模下具有巨大的利润扩张潜力。在过去 12 个月中，亚马逊的营业利润率为 11%，而微软为 45%。亚马逊的单位经济学意味着它可能永远无法达到 45% 的利润率，但与其云计算竞争对手相比，仍有更大的增长空间。</p>
<p>AWS 的营业利润率接近 40%，并且每年在亚马逊的业务中占据越来越大的份额。广告、第三方卖家服务和订阅在亚马逊的零售部门快速增长。这些都将在未来 10 到 20 年内推动亚马逊的盈利能力上升。从长远来看，我预计其营业利润率将超过 20%，这得益于这些高利润率领域的快速增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e1a42e185e974fb0bc458e39a9ac7643.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e1a42e185e974fb0bc458e39a9ac7643.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 营业利润率（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>通往 10 万亿美元亚马逊市值的路径</h2>
<p>无论需要 10 年、15 年还是 20 年，我认为亚马逊的总收入最终将达到 2 万亿美元。其在大型科技领域的竞争对手并没有像亚马逊那样在电子商务和云计算中占据如此大的可寻址市场，这将限制未来 10 到 20 年的收入增长。人工智能应该会在未来十年内推动云计算的增长。</p>
<p>2 万亿美元的收入和 20% 的营业利润率相当于 4000 亿美元的营业收益。10 万亿美元的市值与 4000 亿美元的收益相比，收益比为 25，这对于像亚马逊这样的公司来说是完全合理的。</p>
<p>与其他科技公司相比，亚马逊有更清晰的收入增长路径，帮助其实现每年数百亿美元的收益，以支持这一估值。可能需要十多年，但我认为亚马逊股票将是首个市值达到 10 万亿美元的股票。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊被预测将成为首家市值达到 10 万亿美元的公司，超越苹果、微软和英伟达等竞争对手。该公司的增长得益于其在电子商务和云计算领域的强大地位，这两个领域都有显著的收入潜力。随着高利润率业务的增长，亚马逊的营业利润率预计将改善，可能达到 20%。预计未来十年或二年，亚马逊的收入将达到 2 万亿美元，营业收益为 4000 亿美元，因此 10 万亿美元的市值被认为是合理的</p>

<p>Investors have been in love with <strong>Apple</strong> for a long time. It was the largest company in the world by market capitalization for many years, driven by the growth of the iPhone. Now, it has been eclipsed by competitors like <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong> as Apple's revenue growth slows in the face of rapid growth from these other technology players.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对 <strong>苹果</strong> 的热爱由来已久。多年来，它一直是全球市值最大的公司，这得益于 iPhone 的增长。如今，随着苹果的收入增长放缓，<strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 等竞争对手已将其超越。</p>
</div><p>While Microsoft and Nvidia are solid bets to reach a $10 trillion market cap, I think another big technology player will get there first: <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.18%). Its dual growth engines and profit margin expansion potential have the company poised to be the first stock to eclipse a $10 trillion valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然微软和英伟达是达到 10 万亿美元市值的稳妥选择，但我认为另一个大型科技公司会更早实现这一目标：<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 0.18%）。其双重增长引擎和利润率扩张潜力使得该公司有望成为首个市值超过 10 万亿美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>Here's why Amazon -- not Apple -- will be the first stock to a $10 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是为什么亚马逊——而不是苹果——将成为首个达到 10 万亿美元市值的股票的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgzNjUvb25saW5lLXNob3BwaW5nLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818365%2Fonline-shopping.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Multiple engines of growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>多重增长引擎</h2>
</div><p>What makes Amazon special is its leading presence in two different sectors worth several hundred billion dollars, which will eventually grow into multitrillion-dollar opportunities. These are e-commerce and cloud computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的特别之处在于其在两个价值数千亿美元的不同领域的领先地位，这些领域最终将发展成为数万亿美元的机会。这两个领域分别是电子商务和云计算。</p>
</div><p>E-commerce is still less than 20% of retail sales in the United States and has steadily grown for many decades. There is no reason to think this growth trajectory will slow anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电子商务在美国的零售销售中仍不到 20%，并且在过去几十年中稳步增长。没有理由认为这一增长轨迹会在短期内放缓。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's combined North America and international sales were more than $500 billion over the last 12 months. When considering the long-term tailwind of e-commerce adoption, growing GDP around the world, and inflation, I believe these segments will easily double and surpass $1 trillion in revenue, with plenty of room to still grow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去 12 个月中，亚马逊的北美和国际销售总额超过 5000 亿美元。考虑到电子商务普及的长期顺风、全球 GDP 的增长以及通货膨胀，我相信这些领域的收入将轻松翻倍，超过 1 万亿美元，并且仍有很大的增长空间。</p>
</div><p>Cloud computing is getting supercharged by artificial intelligence (AI), which is taking the industry, once thought to have a $1 trillion addressable market, to become much larger. Amazon's cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is going to capture the majority of the company's planned $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>云计算正受到人工智能（AI）的强劲推动，曾被认为有 1 万亿美元可寻址市场的行业，现在变得更大。亚马逊的云计算部门——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）——将在 2025 年计划的 1000 亿美元资本支出中占据大部分。</p>
</div><p>Growing 17% year over year at $112 billion in revenue, I think AWS has a clear path to expand to $200 billion and eventually $300 billion in revenue over the next decade and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 以每年 17% 的速度增长，收入达到 1120 亿美元，我认为它有明确的路径在未来十年及更长时间内扩展到 2000 亿美元，最终达到 3000 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><h2>Better margin expansion potential than other big tech</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>较其他大型科技公司更好的利润扩张潜力</h2>
</div><p>What makes Amazon a special case among the large technology players is the potential for great margin expansion at its increasingly large size. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's operating margin was 11% compared to Microsoft's 45%. Amazon's unit economics mean it will likely never reach a 45% profit margin, but there is much more room to grow compared to its cloud computing competitor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在大型科技公司中之所以特别，是因为其在不断扩大的规模下具有巨大的利润扩张潜力。在过去 12 个月中，亚马逊的营业利润率为 11%，而微软为 45%。亚马逊的单位经济学意味着它可能永远无法达到 45% 的利润率，但与其云计算竞争对手相比，仍有更大的增长空间。</p>
</div><p>AWS has an operating margin approaching 40% and is becoming a larger part of Amazon's business every year. Advertising, third-party seller services, and subscriptions are growing quickly at Amazon's retail segment. These will all be a rising tide to lift Amazon's profitability over the next 10 to 20 years. In the long run, I expect its operating margin to eclipse 20% due to the fast growth of these higher-margin segments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 的营业利润率接近 40%，并且每年在亚马逊的业务中占据越来越大的份额。广告、第三方卖家服务和订阅在亚马逊的零售部门快速增长。这些都将在未来 10 到 20 年内推动亚马逊的盈利能力上升。从长远来看，我预计其营业利润率将超过 20%，这得益于这些高利润率领域的快速增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e1a42e185e974fb0bc458e39a9ac7643.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e1a42e185e974fb0bc458e39a9ac7643.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 营业利润率（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>The path to a $10 trillion Amazon market cap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通往 10 万亿美元亚马逊市值的路径</h2>
</div><p>Whether it takes 10, 15, or 20 years, I think Amazon's combined revenue will eventually reach $2 trillion. Its competitors in big tech do not have the large addressable market afforded to Amazon by dominating both e-commerce and cloud computing, which will limit revenue growth over the next 10 to 20 years. AI should supercharge growth in cloud computing over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论需要 10 年、15 年还是 20 年，我认为亚马逊的总收入最终将达到 2 万亿美元。其在大型科技领域的竞争对手并没有像亚马逊那样在电子商务和云计算中占据如此大的可寻址市场，这将限制未来 10 到 20 年的收入增长。人工智能应该会在未来十年内推动云计算的增长。</p>
</div><p>$2 trillion in revenue and a 20% operating margin equates to $400 billion in operating earnings. A $10 trillion market cap versus $400 billion in earnings is an earnings ratio of 25, which is entirely reasonable for a company like Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 万亿美元的收入和 20% 的营业利润率相当于 4000 亿美元的营业收益。10 万亿美元的市值与 4000 亿美元的收益相比，收益比为 25，这对于像亚马逊这样的公司来说是完全合理的。</p>
</div><p>Compared to other technology players, Amazon has a much clearer revenue growth path to help it achieve the hundreds of billions of dollars in annual earnings needed to warrant this valuation. It may take over a decade, but Amazon stock is my bet to be the first stock with a $10 trillion market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其他科技公司相比，亚马逊有更清晰的收入增长路径，帮助其实现每年数百亿美元的收益，以支持这一估值。可能需要十多年，但我认为亚马逊股票将是首个市值达到 10 万亿美元的股票。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be Wall Street's First $10 Trillion Company -- And It's Not Apple

- 亚马逊在电商和云计算领域的领导地位将推动其市值突破 10 万亿美元。  
- 预计亚马逊的收入将达到 2 万亿美元，运营利润率超过 20%。  
- 相较于其他科技公司，亚马逊的增长潜力更为明确。  

预测：这家公司将成为华尔街首家市值达到 10 万亿美元的公司——并且不是苹果公司