<p>去年牛市持续高涨，投资者尤其青睐高增长股票，认为这些公司在潜在的低利率环境中将表现出色。而这些投资者的宠儿中，许多都涉及人工智能（AI）这一蓬勃发展的领域，预计将推动未来的增长。</p>
<p>然而，在所有这些乐观情绪中，沃伦·巴菲特开始向华尔街发出重要警告。这位亿万富翁投资者并没有随大流，疯狂买入股票。他选择性地进行了几笔购买，例如在第四季度将 <strong>康斯坦丁品牌</strong> 加入 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 投资组合。但总体而言，他是股票的净卖家，甚至在去年减少了对 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>美国银行</strong> 的持仓。同时，巴菲特还积累了创纪录的现金水平——截至第一季度末，这一水平已上升至超过 3470 亿美元。</p>
<p>在此期间，巴菲特连续第十个季度成为股票的净卖家，将十亿美元的警告延续到今年。现在，让我们回顾历史，看看股票接下来可能会如何表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg0Mzgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg0Mzgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>为什么巴菲特的行动重要</h2>
<p>首先，让我们考虑一下为什么巴菲特的话语和行动如此重要。这位亿万富翁在过去 59 年中引领伯克希尔哈撒韦取得了超越市场的表现，证明了他挑选优秀股票和获得投资胜利的能力。显然，他在许多股票上多次做到这一点，帮助伯克希尔哈撒韦在此期间实现了近 20% 的年复合增长率——相比之下，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的增长约为 10%。</p>
<p>为了达到这一成功水平，巴菲特遵循了一些简单的原则。他只投资于自己理解的公司，以合理的价格购买股票，并长期持有。此外，重要的是，巴菲特不会在牛市或熊市中跟风投资趋势或随大流。相反，这位投资专家在市场环境中持续投资——当他发现机会时。</p>
<p>巴菲特在 2024 年的股东信中写道，&#34;通常，没有什么看起来令人信服；_非常_少见的是我们发现自己深陷机会之中。&#34;</p>
<p>考虑到这一评论和巴菲特的投资举动，他可能并没有将去年视为充满良好潜在购买机会的年份。重要的是要记住，股票变得昂贵，即使在最近的损失之后，许多股票仍然价格不菲。查看标准普尔 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率，这一衡量股票价格与十年收益的指标，便可说明这一点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d14f2589c6b456f4b8893fb99a395fb7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d14f2589c6b456f4b8893fb99a395fb7.png"/></p>
<p>标准普尔 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>这一巴菲特警告曾经发生过</h2>
<p>现在，随着巴菲特的警告响亮而清晰，让我们考虑历史可能会发生什么。我们之所以能这样做，是因为巴菲特的警告并不新鲜。在过去的几年中，巴菲特的现金储备曾多次达到峰值，然后在随后的时期内下降，因为这位顶级投资者部署了一部分资金。下图显示了这一现象在 2007 年、2017 年和 2021 年发生的情况。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg0Mzgvc3RhdGlzdGFfYnVmZmV0dC1jYXNoLXBpbGUuanBlZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg0Mzgvc3RhdGlzdGFfYnVmZmV0dC1jYXNoLXBpbGUuanBlZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：Statista。</p>
<p>重要的是，查看每次&#34;巴菲特警告&#34;后一年标准普尔 500 的表现，显示该指数出现了下跌。标准普尔 500 在 2008 年下跌了 38%，在 2018 年下跌了 6%，在 2022 年下跌了 19%。因此，如果巴菲特的最新警告遵循历史模式，标准普尔 500 可能在明年面临年度下跌。</p>
<p>当然，重要的是要记住，下降并不是与巴菲特的行动相关，而是与整体经济和企业环境相关——巴菲特只是证明了自己在识别风险和采取适当行动方面的专家。这种适当的行动是在股票过于昂贵时不买入，而是积累现金，以便在机会出现时进行投资。</p>
<p>因此，如果历史是正确的，股票可能在明年下跌——但这并不意味着你应该放弃投资。相反，像巴菲特一样，在任何市场环境中，寻找以有趣价格交易的优质股票，抓住机会，并长期持有。毕竟，随着时间的推移，偶尔的几次下跌不会阻止你获得整体胜利。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>沃伦·巴菲特最近的举动对华尔街发出了谨慎的信号，因为他已经连续十个季度成为股票的净卖家，现金储备超过 3470 亿美元。历史上，这种警告往往预示着标准普尔 500 指数的下跌，2008 年下跌了 38%，2018 年下跌了 6%，2022 年下跌了 19%。巴菲特的策略强调以合理的价格投资优质股票并长期持有，这表明尽管可能会出现下跌，但投资机会将会出现</p>

<p>The bull market roared on last year, and investors favored high growth stocks in particular -- with the idea that these sorts of players would excel in a potentially lower interest rate environment. And many of these investor favorites are involved in artificial intelligence (AI), a booming field that could drive growth well into the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年牛市持续高涨，投资者尤其青睐高增长股票，认为这些公司在潜在的低利率环境中将表现出色。而这些投资者的宠儿中，许多都涉及人工智能（AI）这一蓬勃发展的领域，预计将推动未来的增长。</p>
</div><p>But, amid all of this optimism, Warren Buffett began to construct a significant warning to Wall Street. The billionaire investor didn't join the crowd and buy stocks hand over fist. He selectively made some purchases -- for example, adding <strong>Constellation Brands</strong> to the <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> portfolio in the fourth quarter. But overall, he was a net seller of stocks, even reducing positions in top holdings <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Bank of America</strong> last year. And at the same time, Buffett built up a record level of cash -- and that level has marched higher into the new year, totaling more than $347 billion as of the end of the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在所有这些乐观情绪中，沃伦·巴菲特开始向华尔街发出重要警告。这位亿万富翁投资者并没有随大流，疯狂买入股票。他选择性地进行了几笔购买，例如在第四季度将 <strong>康斯坦丁品牌</strong> 加入 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 投资组合。但总体而言，他是股票的净卖家，甚至在去年减少了对 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>美国银行</strong> 的持仓。同时，巴菲特还积累了创纪录的现金水平——截至第一季度末，这一水平已上升至超过 3470 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>In that period, Buffett was a net seller of stocks for the 10th consecutive quarter, extending the billion-dollar warning into this year. Now let's take a look at history to see what stocks may do next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此期间，巴菲特连续第十个季度成为股票的净卖家，将十亿美元的警告延续到今年。现在，让我们回顾历史，看看股票接下来可能会如何表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg0Mzgvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818438%2Fwarren-buffett-4-tmf-may-2014.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Why Buffett's actions count</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么巴菲特的行动重要</h2>
</div><p>First, though, let's consider why Buffett's words and actions are so important. The billionaire has led Berkshire Hathaway to a market-beating performance over 59 years, proving his ability to pick out a great stock and score an investing win. Clearly, he's done this numerous times and with many stocks, helping Berkshire Hathaway deliver a compounded annual gain of nearly 20% over the period -- that's compared to an increase of about 10% for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，让我们考虑一下为什么巴菲特的话语和行动如此重要。这位亿万富翁在过去 59 年中引领伯克希尔哈撒韦取得了超越市场的表现，证明了他挑选优秀股票和获得投资胜利的能力。显然，他在许多股票上多次做到这一点，帮助伯克希尔哈撒韦在此期间实现了近 20% 的年复合增长率——相比之下，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数的增长约为 10%。</p>
</div><p>To reach this level of success, Buffett has followed a few simple principles. He only invests in companies he understands, he buys stocks for reasonable prices, and he holds on for the long term. On top of this, importantly, Buffett doesn't jump into investing trends or follow the crowd during bull or bear markets. Instead, this investing expert invests throughout market environments -- when he finds opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了达到这一成功水平，巴菲特遵循了一些简单的原则。他只投资于自己理解的公司，以合理的价格购买股票，并长期持有。此外，重要的是，巴菲特不会在牛市或熊市中跟风投资趋势或随大流。相反，这位投资专家在市场环境中持续投资——当他发现机会时。</p>
</div><p>Buffett wrote about opportunity in his 2024 shareholder letter, saying, &#34;often, nothing looks compelling; <em>very</em> infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在 2024 年的股东信中写道，&#34;通常，没有什么看起来令人信服；_非常_少见的是我们发现自己深陷机会之中。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Considering that comment and Buffett's investing moves, he likely didn't see last year as ripe with great potential buys. It's important to remember that stocks were getting expensive, and even today after recent losses, many remain pricey. A look at the S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, a measure of stock prices along with earnings over a decade, illustrates this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一评论和巴菲特的投资举动，他可能并没有将去年视为充满良好潜在购买机会的年份。重要的是要记住，股票变得昂贵，即使在最近的损失之后，许多股票仍然价格不菲。查看标准普尔 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率，这一衡量股票价格与十年收益的指标，便可说明这一点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d14f2589c6b456f4b8893fb99a395fb7.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d14f2589c6b456f4b8893fb99a395fb7.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>This Buffett warning has happened before</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这一巴菲特警告曾经发生过</h2>
</div><p>Now, as Buffett's warning rings out loud and clear, let's consider what history says may happen next. We can do this because Buffett's warnings aren't new. In past years, Buffett's pile of cash has peaked on occasion, before declining in the following period as the top investor deployed some of the funds. The chart below shows that happening in 2007, 2017, and 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，随着巴菲特的警告响亮而清晰，让我们考虑历史可能会发生什么。我们之所以能这样做，是因为巴菲特的警告并不新鲜。在过去的几年中，巴菲特的现金储备曾多次达到峰值，然后在随后的时期内下降，因为这位顶级投资者部署了一部分资金。下图显示了这一现象在 2007 年、2017 年和 2021 年发生的情况。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg0Mzgvc3RhdGlzdGFfYnVmZmV0dC1jYXNoLXBpbGUuanBlZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818438%2Fstatista_buffett-cash-pile.jpeg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data Source: Statista.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：Statista。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, a look at S&amp;P 500 performance in the year following each of those &#34;Buffett warnings&#34; shows the index declined. The S&amp;P 500 fell 38% in 2008, 6% in 2018, and 19% in 2022. So, if Buffett's latest warning follows historical patterns, the S&amp;P 500 could be heading for an annual decline next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，查看每次&#34;巴菲特警告&#34;后一年标准普尔 500 的表现，显示该指数出现了下跌。标准普尔 500 在 2008 年下跌了 38%，在 2018 年下跌了 6%，在 2022 年下跌了 19%。因此，如果巴菲特的最新警告遵循历史模式，标准普尔 500 可能在明年面临年度下跌。</p>
</div><p>Of course, it's important to keep in mind that declines aren't linked to Buffett's actions but instead to the general economic and corporate environment -- Buffett has just proven himself to be an expert at identifying risks ahead and taking appropriate action. And this appropriate action is refraining from buying stocks when they're too expensive and instead building up cash to deploy when opportunities arise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，重要的是要记住，下降并不是与巴菲特的行动相关，而是与整体经济和企业环境相关——巴菲特只是证明了自己在识别风险和采取适当行动方面的专家。这种适当的行动是在股票过于昂贵时不买入，而是积累现金，以便在机会出现时进行投资。</p>
</div><p>So, if history is right, stocks might drop next year -- but this doesn't mean you should turn your back on investing. Instead, like Buffett, in any market environment, be on the lookout for quality stocks trading at interesting levels, seize the opportunity, and hang on for the long term. After all, over time, a few periods of declines here and there won't stop you from scoring an overall win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，如果历史是正确的，股票可能在明年下跌——但这并不意味着你应该放弃投资。相反，像巴菲特一样，在任何市场环境中，寻找以有趣价格交易的优质股票，抓住机会，并长期持有。毕竟，随着时间的推移，偶尔的几次下跌不会阻止你获得整体胜利。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $347 Billion Warning to Wall Street Is Ringing Out Loud and Clear. History Says This Happens Next.

- 投资者在低利率环境中偏好高增长股票，尤其是人工智能领域。  
- 巴菲特在过去一年中持续减持股票，现金储备达 3470 亿美元。  
- 历史数据显示，巴菲特的警告往往预示着市场下跌，S&P 500 可能面临年度下滑。  

沃伦·巴菲特向华尔街发出的 3470 亿美元警告已经响彻云霄。历史告诉我们接下来会发生什么