<p>国债 - 长期债券在穆迪评级下调后遭抛售</p>
<p>新加坡，5 月 19 日（路透社）- 周一，长期美国国债收益率上升，此前穆迪成为最新一家下调该国债务评级的主要信用评级机构，进一步削弱了市场对美元的信心。</p>
<p>穆迪投资者服务公司在周五将全球最大经济体的信用评级下调一个等级，从&#34;Aaa&#34;降至&#34;Aa1&#34;，理由是财政赤字庞大和利息成本上升。考虑到同行 Fitch 和 S&amp;P Global 早些时候就已下调美国评级，这一举动对投资者来说并不意外。</p>
<p>市场还关注到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的全面减税法案，该法案在周日获得关键国会委员会的批准，向本周晚些时候可能在众议院通过迈进。</p>
<p>无党派分析师表示，该法案在未来十年可能会使国家不断膨胀的 36.2 万亿美元债务增加 3 万亿至 5 万亿美元。</p>
<p>30 年期国债收益率 US30YT=RR 几乎上涨了 10 个基点，最后报 5%，接近今年的高点。</p>
<p>&#34;（美国市场的）信心受到冲击，恢复需要一些时间，这将使参与者有些紧张，&#34; IG 市场分析师 Tony Sycamore 表示。</p>
<p>&#34;反应已经回到了 30 年期收益率令人担忧的水平，显然长期收益率显示出一些压力迹象，&#34; Sycamore 说。</p>
<p>由于特朗普不稳定和激进的贸易政策引发了衰退担忧，并动摇了人们对美元的长期信心，投资者对美国金融资产的信心今年一直在稳步下降。</p>
<p>这些担忧也对美国股票和债券施加了压力，并在大约六周内推动 10 年期收益率上升了 50 个基点。</p>
<p>10 年期国债收益率 US10YT=RR 上涨约 8 个基点，最后报 4.5%，而短期的 2 年期国债收益率 US2YT=RR 则基本保持平稳。</p>
<p>收益率的飙升对华尔街主要股票指数期货造成了压力，追踪基准标准普尔 500 指数的 EScv1 和以科技股为主的纳斯达克 NQcv1 均下跌超过 1%。美元=USD 持平。</p>
<p>汇丰分析师表示，美元的未来在很大程度上取决于国债对财政状况和持续预算辩论的反应。</p>
<p>&#34;对美国美元来说，最好的结果可能是财政背景的稳定，通过有针对性的支出削减来支付市场友好的减税，&#34;他们写道。</p>
<p>他们警告称存在&#34;三重威胁&#34;情景，即美国收益率上升、股票下跌和美元走弱。</p>
<p>Mirabaud 股票研究的分析师表示，这一评级下调并不是一个严重的技术发展，因为大多数银行、清算所和货币市场基金仍将国债视为三 A 级别，资本要求或保证金要求不会改变。</p>
<p>&#34;但在象征意义上？这是一场地震。当最后一个信誉的堡垒倒塌时，失败的不是金融机制……而是信心。如果市场今天假装忽视它，他们明天可能会付出更高的代价，因为主权风险重新评估的动态从不在失控时发出警告。&#34;</p>

穆迪

<p>长期美国国债收益率上升，此前穆迪因财政赤字和利息成本上升将该国的信用评级从 “Aaa” 下调至 “ Aa1”。此次下调紧随 Fitch 和 S&P Global 的类似行动。30 年期国债收益率跃升至 5%，反映出投资者信心受到动摇，因人们担心特朗普总统的减税法案可能使国家债务增加 3 万亿至 5 万亿美元。分析师警告称，美元面临 “三重威胁” 情景，因收益率上升和股市下跌可能削弱市场稳定性</p>

<p>TREASURIES-Longer-dated bonds sell off after Moody's rating cut</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国债 - 长期债券在穆迪评级下调后遭抛售</p>
</div><p>SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday, after Moody's became the latest among major credit ratings agencies to cut its ratings on the country's debt, further eroding confidence in dollar markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡，5 月 19 日（路透社）- 周一，长期美国国债收益率上升，此前穆迪成为最新一家下调该国债务评级的主要信用评级机构，进一步削弱了市场对美元的信心。</p>
</div><p>Moody's Investors Service downgraded the credit rating for the world's largest economy by a notch to &#34;Aa1&#34; from &#34;Aaa&#34; on Friday, citing large fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. The agency's move was not much of a surprise to investors, given peers Fitch and S&amp;P Global had downgraded the United States much earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪投资者服务公司在周五将全球最大经济体的信用评级下调一个等级，从&#34;Aaa&#34;降至&#34;Aa1&#34;，理由是财政赤字庞大和利息成本上升。考虑到同行 Fitch 和 S&amp;P Global 早些时候就已下调美国评级，这一举动对投资者来说并不意外。</p>
</div><p>Markets also took stock of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill that won approval from a key congressional committee on Sunday to advance toward possible passage in the House of Representatives later this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场还关注到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的全面减税法案，该法案在周日获得关键国会委员会的批准，向本周晚些时候可能在众议院通过迈进。</p>
</div><p>Nonpartisan analysts say the bill would potentially add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the nation's ballooning $36.2 trillion debt pile over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无党派分析师表示，该法案在未来十年可能会使国家不断膨胀的 36.2 万亿美元债务增加 3 万亿至 5 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The yield on 30-year Treasury notes US30YT=RR jumped nearly 10 basis points and was last at 5%, close to its highs for the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>30 年期国债收益率 US30YT=RR 几乎上涨了 10 个基点，最后报 5%，接近今年的高点。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Confidence has been shaken (in U.S. markets) and it is going to take some time for that to return and that's going to leave participants jumping at shadows a little bit,&#34; said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;（美国市场的）信心受到冲击，恢复需要一些时间，这将使参与者有些紧张，&#34; IG 市场分析师 Tony Sycamore 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The reaction has been getting back to concerning levels for the 30-year yield and certainly that long end is showing some signs of distress,&#34; Sycamore said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;反应已经回到了 30 年期收益率令人担忧的水平，显然长期收益率显示出一些压力迹象，&#34; Sycamore 说。</p>
</div><p>Investor confidence in U.S. financial assets has been steadily eroding this year as Trump's erratic and aggressive trade policies stoke recession fears and shake longstanding faith in the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于特朗普不稳定和激进的贸易政策引发了衰退担忧，并动摇了人们对美元的长期信心，投资者对美国金融资产的信心今年一直在稳步下降。</p>
</div><p>Those concerns have also weighed on U.S. stocks and bonds, and driven 10-year yields up 50 basis points in around six weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些担忧也对美国股票和债券施加了压力，并在大约六周内推动 10 年期收益率上升了 50 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR were up about 8 basis points and last at 4.5%, while shorter-dated 2-year notes US2YT=RR were broadly muted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期国债收益率 US10YT=RR 上涨约 8 个基点，最后报 4.5%，而短期的 2 年期国债收益率 US2YT=RR 则基本保持平稳。</p>
</div><p>The spike in yields weighed on Wall Street's main stock index futures, with those tracking the benchmark S&amp;P 500 EScv1 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq NQcv1 dropping more than 1% each. The greenback =USD was flat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率的飙升对华尔街主要股票指数期货造成了压力，追踪基准标准普尔 500 指数的 EScv1 和以科技股为主的纳斯达克 NQcv1 均下跌超过 1%。美元=USD 持平。</p>
</div><p>HSBC analysts said the dollar's future largely hinges on how Treasuries react to the fiscal situation and ongoing budget debate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰分析师表示，美元的未来在很大程度上取决于国债对财政状况和持续预算辩论的反应。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The best outcome for the U.S. dollar might be stability in the fiscal backdrop, with market-friendly tax cuts paid for through targeted spending cuts,&#34; they wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;对美国美元来说，最好的结果可能是财政背景的稳定，通过有针对性的支出削减来支付市场友好的减税，&#34;他们写道。</p>
</div><p>They warned of a &#34;Triple Threat&#34; scenario, where U.S. yields rise, equities fall and the dollar weakens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们警告称存在&#34;三重威胁&#34;情景，即美国收益率上升、股票下跌和美元走弱。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Mirabaud Equity Research said the downgrade was not a serious technical development as most banks, clearing houses and money market funds still treat Treasuries as if they were triple-A rated and capital requirements or margin calls will not change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mirabaud 股票研究的分析师表示，这一评级下调并不是一个严重的技术发展，因为大多数银行、清算所和货币市场基金仍将国债视为三 A 级别，资本要求或保证金要求不会改变。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But symbolically? It's an earthquake. When the last bastion of credibility falls, it's not the financial mechanism that fails...it's confidence. And if the markets pretend to ignore it today, they could pay a higher price tomorrow, because the dynamics of the revaluation of sovereign risk never warn you when they get out of control.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;但在象征意义上？这是一场地震。当最后一个信誉的堡垒倒塌时，失败的不是金融机制……而是信心。如果市场今天假装忽视它，他们明天可能会付出更高的代价，因为主权风险重新评估的动态从不在失控时发出警告。&#34;</p>
</div>

国债——穆迪评级下调后，较长期债券被抛售