<ul>
<li>投资者关注美国税收方案及其对预算赤字的影响</li>
<li>随着方案包括提高债务上限，紧迫感加剧</li>
<li>债券投资者的紧张情绪在国债收益率曲线的扭曲中显现</li>
<li>许多人预计赤字将增加，经济将有适度提振</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Davide Barbuscia</p>
<p>纽约，5 月 19 日（路透社）- 穆迪对美国主权信用评级的下调加剧了投资者对即将到来的债务定时炸弹的担忧，这可能促使债券市场的警惕者希望华盛顿采取更多财政克制。</p>
<p>评级机构在周五将美国的优质主权信用评级下调一个等级，成为最后一家下调该国评级的主要评级机构，理由是对国家不断增长的 36 万亿美元债务的担忧。</p>
<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的全面减税法案在共和党因削减开支而内讧数日后，于周日获得关键国会委员会的批准，这是 特朗普 和众议院议长迈克·约翰逊的罕见胜利。</p>
<p>法案最终形态的不确定性对市场造成了压力。</p>
<p>“债券市场今年特别关注华盛顿发生的事情，” BMO 私人财富的首席市场策略师卡罗尔·施莱夫表示，她指出穆迪的下调可能使投资者更加谨慎。</p>
<p>“当国会辩论 ‘美丽的法案’ 时，债券警惕者将密切关注，以确保他们遵循财政责任的原则，” 她说，指的是通过使政府借款变得极其昂贵来惩罚不良政策的债券投资者。</p>
<p>穆迪的下调，继 2023 年惠誉和 2011 年标准普尔的类似举措之后，将 “最终导致美国公共和私营部门的借款成本上升，” 纽约 Tolou 资本管理公司的创始人斯宾塞·哈基米安表示。</p>
<p>在周一早盘交易中，30 年期美国国债收益率短暂升至 5% 以上，最后交易时上涨 10 个基点。</p>
<p>尽管如此，评级下调不太可能引发只能投资于顶级证券的基金的强制抛售，TD 证券美国利率策略负责人根纳季·戈尔德堡表示，因为大多数基金在标准普尔下调后修订了投资指南。“但我们预计这将重新聚焦市场对财政政策和目前国会正在谈判的法案的关注，” 戈尔德堡说。</p>
<p>关注法案</p>
<p>一个问题是国会对财政原则是否被牺牲的反对声音有多大，布朗兄弟哈里曼的首席投资策略师斯科特·克莱蒙斯表示，显示奢侈支出的法案可能会抑制对长期国债的投资。</p>
<p>负责联邦预算的委员会，一个无党派智库，估计 该法案到 2034 年可能会使国家债务增加约 3.3 万亿美元，或者如果政策制定者延长临时条款，则约为 5.2 万亿美元。</p>
<p>穆迪在周五表示，历届政府未能扭转财政赤字和利息成本上升的趋势，并且它不相信正在考虑的财政提案会导致赤字的实质性减少。</p>
<p>市场定价中显示出担忧。法律与一般投资管理美国公司的固定收益策略负责人安东尼·伍德赛德表示，最近 10 年期国债期限溢价的增加——这是投资者为持有长期债务所要求的回报的衡量标准——部分反映了市场对财政的担忧。伍德赛德表示，市场 “并未对赤字在实质上被降低赋予太多可信度”。</p>
<p>财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，政府专注于控制基准 10 年期收益率。该收益率最后一次见到为 4.51%，比特朗普于 1 月上任前的水平低约 10 个基点。</p>
<p>“当然，你可以看到收益率对赤字的显著增加作出反应，而此时我们已经在运行相当大的赤字，” Natixis 投资管理解决方案的投资组合策略师加雷特·梅尔森表示。</p>
<p>白宫发言人对法案的担忧表示不屑。“专家们错了，就像他们对特朗普关税的影响一样，这些关税带来了数万亿美元的投资、创纪录的就业增长和没有通货膨胀，” 白宫特别助理和首席副新闻秘书哈里森·菲尔兹在一份声明中表示。</p>
<p>白宫将穆迪的下调视为政治行为。白宫通讯主任史蒂文·张通过社交媒体在周五对这一举动作出反应，特别提到穆迪经济学家马克·赞迪，并称他为特朗普的政治对手。赞迪是穆迪分析的首席经济学家，该机构与评级机构是不同的，他拒绝对此发表评论。</p>
<p>市场中的一些人认为，由于关税收入和支出抵消，税收方案将改善财政前景。巴克莱现在估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使赤字增加 2 万亿美元，而在特朗普上任前的预期约为 3.8 万亿美元。</p>
<p>X 因素？</p>
<p>随着关键截止日期的临近，紧迫感加剧。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示，他希望在 5 月 26 日美国阵亡将士纪念日假期之前通过该法案，而贝森特则敦促立法者在 7 月中旬之前提高联邦政府的债务上限。</p>
<p>美国政府在 1 月达到了法定借款上限，并开始采取 “非常措施” 以防止突破上限。贝森特表示，政府可能在 8 月达到所谓的 X 日期——即用完现金以满足所有义务的日期。</p>
<p>投资者对债务上限的紧张情绪开始显现。到期于 8 月的国债的平均收益率高于相邻到期国债的收益率。</p>
<p>虽然共和党内部普遍同意延长特朗普 2017 年的减税政策，但在如何实现支出削减以帮助弥补收入损失方面存在分歧。</p>
<p>在支出削减方面的灵活空间有限。强制性支出，包括特朗普承诺不动的社会福利项目，去年占总预算支出的绝大多数。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的策略师迈克尔·泽扎斯在上周发布的一份报告中表示，一个在政治上可行的财政方案可能会在短期内导致更大的赤字，同时也不会对经济提供实质性的财政刺激。</p>
<p>古根海姆合伙投资管理公司的首席投资官安妮·沃尔什表示，如果华盛顿没有真正的流程来显著重置支出水平，美国的财政路径不太可能有实质性改善。</p>
<p>“我们现在所走的道路是不可持续的，” 她说。</p>
<p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/907caeff478a670124fb718a9ee0ac4b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1000" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/907caeff478a670124fb718a9ee0ac4b"/></p>
<p>美国债务上限的焦虑正在造成国债收益率曲线的扭曲。</p>

<p>穆迪对美国信用评级的下调加剧了投资者对国家财政前景的担忧，特别是关于一项新的税收方案及其对预算赤字的潜在影响。这一降级紧随 Fitch 和 S&P 的类似举措，预计将导致借贷成本上升。投资者正密切关注国会对税收法案的谈判，该法案可能会显著增加国家债务。尽管评级下调，一些市场参与者认为，由于潜在的关税收入和支出抵消，财政前景可能会改善</p>

<ul>
<li>Investors zeroing in on US tax package, impact on budget deficit</li>
<li>Urgency mounting as package includes raising debt ceiling</li>
<li>Bond investor nervousness showing in T-bill yield curve kink</li>
<li>Many expect higher deficits, modest economic boost</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>投资者关注美国税收方案及其对预算赤字的影响</li>
<li>随着方案包括提高债务上限，紧迫感加剧</li>
<li>债券投资者的紧张情绪在国债收益率曲线的扭曲中显现</li>
<li>许多人预计赤字将增加，经济将有适度提振</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Davide Barbuscia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Davide Barbuscia</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - A U.S. sovereign downgrade by Moody's has exacerbated investor worries about a looming debt time-bomb that could spur bond market vigilantes who want to see more fiscal restraint from Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，5 月 19 日（路透社）- 穆迪对美国主权信用评级的下调加剧了投资者对即将到来的债务定时炸弹的担忧，这可能促使债券市场的警惕者希望华盛顿采取更多财政克制。</p>
</div><p>The ratings agency cut America's pristine sovereign credit rating by one notch on Friday, the last of the major ratings agencies to downgrade the country, citing concerns about the nation's growing $36 trillion debt pile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>评级机构在周五将美国的优质主权信用评级下调一个等级，成为最后一家下调该国评级的主要评级机构，理由是对国家不断增长的 36 万亿美元债务的担忧。</p>
</div><p>U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill, which had been stalled for days by Republican infighting over spending cuts, won approval from a key congressional committee on Sunday in a rare victory for Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的全面减税法案在共和党因削减开支而内讧数日后，于周日获得关键国会委员会的批准，这是 特朗普 和众议院议长迈克·约翰逊的罕见胜利。</p>
</div><p>Uncertainty over the final shape of the bill has weighed on markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法案最终形态的不确定性对市场造成了压力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The bond market has been keeping a sharp eye on what transpires in Washington this year in particular,&#34; said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, who said that Moody's downgrade may make investors more cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“债券市场今年特别关注华盛顿发生的事情，” BMO 私人财富的首席市场策略师卡罗尔·施莱夫表示，她指出穆迪的下调可能使投资者更加谨慎。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As Congress debates the 'big, beautiful bill' the bond vigilantes will be keeping a sharp eye on making them toe a fiscally responsible line,&#34; she said, referring to bond investors who punish bad policy by making it prohibitively expensive for governments to borrow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当国会辩论 ‘美丽的法案’ 时，债券警惕者将密切关注，以确保他们遵循财政责任的原则，” 她说，指的是通过使政府借款变得极其昂贵来惩罚不良政策的债券投资者。</p>
</div><p>The downgrade from Moody's, which follows similar moves from Fitch in 2023 and Standard &amp; Poor's in 2011, will &#34;eventually lead to higher borrowing costs for the public and private sector in the United States,” said Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management in New York.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪的下调，继 2023 年惠誉和 2011 年标准普尔的类似举措之后，将 “最终导致美国公共和私营部门的借款成本上升，” 纽约 Tolou 资本管理公司的创始人斯宾塞·哈基米安表示。</p>
</div><p>In early Monday trade, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields briefly rose above 5% and were last trading 10 basis points higher on the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周一早盘交易中，30 年期美国国债收益率短暂升至 5% 以上，最后交易时上涨 10 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Even so, the ratings cut was unlikely to trigger forced selling from funds that can only invest in top-rated securities, said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, as most funds revised guidelines after the S&amp;P downgrade. &#34;But we expect it to refocus the market's attention on fiscal policy and the bill currently being negotiated in Congress,&#34; Goldberg said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，评级下调不太可能引发只能投资于顶级证券的基金的强制抛售，TD 证券美国利率策略负责人根纳季·戈尔德堡表示，因为大多数基金在标准普尔下调后修订了投资指南。“但我们预计这将重新聚焦市场对财政政策和目前国会正在谈判的法案的关注，” 戈尔德堡说。</p>
</div><p>FOCUS ON BILL</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关注法案</p>
</div><p>One question is how much pushback there will be in Congress over whether fiscal principles are being sacrificed, said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, adding that a bill that shows profligate spending could be a disincentive to add exposure to long-dated Treasuries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个问题是国会对财政原则是否被牺牲的反对声音有多大，布朗兄弟哈里曼的首席投资策略师斯科特·克莱蒙斯表示，显示奢侈支出的法案可能会抑制对长期国债的投资。</p>
</div><p>The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates the bill could add roughly $3.3 trillion to the country's debt by 2034 or around $5.2 trillion if policymakers extend temporary provisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>负责联邦预算的委员会，一个无党派智库，估计 该法案到 2034 年可能会使国家债务增加约 3.3 万亿美元，或者如果政策制定者延长临时条款，则约为 5.2 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Moody's said on Friday successive administrations have failed to reverse the trend of higher fiscal deficits and interest costs, and it did not believe that material reductions in deficits will result from fiscal proposals under consideration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪在周五表示，历届政府未能扭转财政赤字和利息成本上升的趋势，并且它不相信正在考虑的财政提案会导致赤字的实质性减少。</p>
</div><p>Concern shows up in market pricing. A recent increase in the 10-year Treasury term premium - a measure of the return investors demand for the risk of holding long-dated debt - is partly a sign of underlying fiscal worry in the market, said Anthony Woodside, head of fixed income strategy at Legal &amp; General Investment Management America. Woodside said the market was &#34;not assigning much credibility&#34; to the deficit being brought down in a material way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场定价中显示出担忧。法律与一般投资管理美国公司的固定收益策略负责人安东尼·伍德赛德表示，最近 10 年期国债期限溢价的增加——这是投资者为持有长期债务所要求的回报的衡量标准——部分反映了市场对财政的担忧。伍德赛德表示，市场 “并未对赤字在实质上被降低赋予太多可信度”。</p>
</div><p>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the administration is focused on containing benchmark 10-year yields. The yield, last seen at 4.51%, is about 10 basis points below where it was before Trump took office in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，政府专注于控制基准 10 年期收益率。该收益率最后一次见到为 4.51%，比特朗普于 1 月上任前的水平低约 10 个基点。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Certainly you could see a reaction in yields to a pretty substantial increase in the deficit at a time when we're already running pretty significant deficits,&#34; said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当然，你可以看到收益率对赤字的显著增加作出反应，而此时我们已经在运行相当大的赤字，” Natixis 投资管理解决方案的投资组合策略师加雷特·梅尔森表示。</p>
</div><p>A White House spokesperson dismissed concerns around the bill. &#34;The experts are wrong, just as they were about the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which have yielded trillions in investments, record job growth, and no inflation,&#34; said Harrison Fields, special assistant to the President and principal deputy press secretary, in a statement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫发言人对法案的担忧表示不屑。“专家们错了，就像他们对特朗普关税的影响一样，这些关税带来了数万亿美元的投资、创纪录的就业增长和没有通货膨胀，” 白宫特别助理和首席副新闻秘书哈里森·菲尔兹在一份声明中表示。</p>
</div><p>The White House characterized the Moody's downgrade as political. White House communications director Steven Cheung reacted to the move via a social media post on Friday, singling out Moody's economist, Mark Zandi, and calling him a political opponent of Trump. Zandi, who is chief economist at Moody's Analytics, a separate entity from the ratings agency, declined to comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫将穆迪的下调视为政治行为。白宫通讯主任史蒂文·张通过社交媒体在周五对这一举动作出反应，特别提到穆迪经济学家马克·赞迪，并称他为特朗普的政治对手。赞迪是穆迪分析的首席经济学家，该机构与评级机构是不同的，他拒绝对此发表评论。</p>
</div><p>Some in the market believe the fiscal outlook will improve with the tax package compared to earlier expectations, due to tariff revenues and spending offsets. Barclays now estimates the cost of the bill to increase deficits by $2 trillion over the next 10 years compared to expectations of around $3.8 trillion before Trump took office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场中的一些人认为，由于关税收入和支出抵消，税收方案将改善财政前景。巴克莱现在估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使赤字增加 2 万亿美元，而在特朗普上任前的预期约为 3.8 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>X FACTOR?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>X 因素？</p>
</div><p>Urgency is mounting as key deadlines approach. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said that he wants his chamber to pass the bill before the U.S. Memorial Day holiday on May 26, while Bessent has urged lawmakers to raise the federal government's debt limit by mid-July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着关键截止日期的临近，紧迫感加剧。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示，他希望在 5 月 26 日美国阵亡将士纪念日假期之前通过该法案，而贝森特则敦促立法者在 7 月中旬之前提高联邦政府的债务上限。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. government reached its statutory borrowing limit in January and began employing &#34;extraordinary measures&#34; to keep it from breaching the cap. Bessent has indicated the government could hit the so-called X-date - when it runs out of cash to meet all its obligations - by August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国政府在 1 月达到了法定借款上限，并开始采取 “非常措施” 以防止突破上限。贝森特表示，政府可能在 8 月达到所谓的 X 日期——即用完现金以满足所有义务的日期。</p>
</div><p>Investor nervousness around the debt limit has started to show up. The average yield on Treasury bills due in August is higher than the yield of bills with adjacent maturities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对债务上限的紧张情绪开始显现。到期于 8 月的国债的平均收益率高于相邻到期国债的收益率。</p>
</div><p>While there is broad agreement within the Republican Party to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, there is a divide on how to achieve spending cuts that would help offset revenue loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然共和党内部普遍同意延长特朗普 2017 年的减税政策，但在如何实现支出削减以帮助弥补收入损失方面存在分歧。</p>
</div><p>The room for manoeuvre on spending cuts is limited. Mandatory spending, including on social welfare programs that Trump has pledged not to touch, accounted for a vast majority of total budgetary spending last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在支出削减方面的灵活空间有限。强制性支出，包括特朗普承诺不动的社会福利项目，去年占总预算支出的绝大多数。</p>
</div><p>A politically viable fiscal package will likely lead to wider deficits in the near term, and at the same time it won't provide a meaningful fiscal boost to the economy, said Michael Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note published last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的策略师迈克尔·泽扎斯在上周发布的一份报告中表示，一个在政治上可行的财政方案可能会在短期内导致更大的赤字，同时也不会对经济提供实质性的财政刺激。</p>
</div><p>Anne Walsh, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners Investment Management said that without a real process in Washington aimed at significantly resetting spending levels, a meaningful improvement in the U.S. fiscal path is unlikely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>古根海姆合伙投资管理公司的首席投资官安妮·沃尔什表示，如果华盛顿没有真正的流程来显著重置支出水平，美国的财政路径不太可能有实质性改善。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is an unsustainable course that we're on,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们现在所走的道路是不可持续的，” 她说。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/907caeff478a670124fb718a9ee0ac4b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/907caeff478a670124fb718a9ee0ac4b"/></p>
<p>US debt ceiling anxiety is creating dislocations in the T-bill yield curve</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国债务上限的焦虑正在造成国债收益率曲线的扭曲。</p>
</div>

ANALYSIS-Moody's downgrade intensifies investor worry about US fiscal path

- 美国主权信用评级被穆迪下调，投资者担忧债务危机。  
- 预计新税法将使国债增加约 3.3 万亿美元。  
- 债务上限问题导致国债收益率曲线出现异常。  

分析 - 穆迪的评级下调加剧了投资者对美国财政路径的担忧