<p>如果你看过电影《大空头》，这部电影基于迈克尔·刘易斯的小说，且由著名演员史蒂夫·卡瑞尔、克里斯蒂安·贝尔、瑞安·高斯林和杰瑞米·强主演，那么你可能知道迈克尔·伯里是谁。这位前斯坦福大学神经学住院医师在互联网早期通过在线发布股票投资想法而声名鹊起。</p>
<p>他的想法非常出色，以至于他最终离开了医学领域，创办了自己的基金。在大衰退之前，伯里准确地对房地产市场做空，为他的基金 Scion Capital 赚取了数亿美元的利润。现在，伯里管理着另一只名为 Scion Asset Management 的基金，而这只基金在第一季度几乎卖掉了所有股票，同时也购买了看跌期权。伯里是否又一次成功进行了&#34;大空头&#34;交易？看起来确实如此。</p>
<h2>伯里完美把握了因关税引发的抛售时机</h2>
<p>伯里从不持有过大的投资组合，通常持有大约十只股票，可能多几只或少几只。在第一季度，他几乎卖掉了所有持股。他曾对中国持相当乐观的态度，拥有阿里巴巴、百度、京东和 PDD Holdings 等大型中国股票。但在卖掉这些股票后，他还购买了这些公司的看跌期权。看跌期权与看涨期权类似，但方向相反，基本上是在押注股票价格会下跌。伯里还购买了 Nvidia 的看跌期权。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg2MjcvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg2MjcvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>现在，请记住，向证券交易委员会提交的 13F 文件仅显示了 Scion 在 3 月 31 日交易结束时的持仓。我们不知道伯里在第一季度的哪个时点卖出了这些股票，或者以什么价格卖出。</p>
<p>然而，伯里很可能看到了美国与中国之间日益紧张的贸易关系，并决定提前应对可能因关税引发的市场整体抛售。如果是这样的话，伯里成功进行了另一笔&#34;大空头&#34;交易，并且时机把握得非常完美，因为在特朗普总统的&#34;解放日&#34;后，市场在四月初绝对崩溃，从二月份的高点下跌了近 20%。今年某个时点，Nvidia 的交易价格下跌了 30%，而且从年内的高点下跌得更多。</p>
<p>Nvidia 不仅受到贸易战的影响，还因为特朗普政府对某些半导体芯片对中国的出口限制而受到打击。Nvidia 在中国的业务相当可观，但自从美国和中国宣布暂停相互提高关税的 90 天后，股票已经恢复了很多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>有趣的是，伯里唯一剩下的多头头寸是跨国化妆品公司雅诗兰黛，该公司在过去一年中下跌超过 50%（截至 5 月 16 日）。Scion 实际上在第一季度加倍了对该公司的持仓。伯里在深度价值股票上采取多头头寸并不罕见，就像他在 GameStop 爆发成一场史诗般的零售交易狂潮之前所做的那样。</p>
<h2>伯里是要转向长期看空吗？</h2>
<p>我们实际上要等到 7 月份看到 Scion 当前季度的 13F 文件，才能知道这个问题的答案。然而，伯里很可能只是短期看空，并且预见到了贸易战的到来。伯里以前也这样做过。在 2022 年第二季度，正当美联储开始其激进的加息行动时，Scion 也卖掉了所有股票，只留下了一只。到第三季度，Scion 又开始重新积累股票。</p>
<p>当然，如果伯里在第一季度卖掉了所有股票，然后在市场剧烈抛售后买入，正好在特朗普宣布暂停提高关税之前，这将是相当令人印象深刻的。我不会对这位传奇投资者感到惊讶。伯里也可能更加看空，因为他密切研究经济数据，这些数据表明消费者支出和整体经济可能放缓。</p>
<p>我认为最大的收获是，我们还不清楚伯里在今年剩余时间内的看空或看多立场。然而，伯里显然又成功进行了另一笔&#34;大空头&#34;交易。</p>

雅诗兰黛

<p>著名投资者迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），因成功押注房地产市场崩溃而闻名，已几乎出售其基金 Scion Asset Management 中的所有股票，并购买了包括英伟达（Nvidia）在内的看跌期权。这一举动表明，他可能预见到由于美中贸易紧张局势加剧，市场将出现下行。伯里目前剩余的多头头寸在雅诗兰黛（Estée Lauder）上，该公司股价已大幅下跌。他未来的投资策略仍不确定，但看起来他可能又执行了一笔 “空头大交易”</p>

<p>If you've seen the movie <em>The Big Short</em>, which is based on the novel by Michael Lewis and features acclaimed actors Steve Carrell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Jeremy Strong, then you probably know who Michael Burry is. The former Stanford neurology resident rose to prominence while posting stock ideas online during the early days of the internet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你看过电影《大空头》，这部电影基于迈克尔·刘易斯的小说，且由著名演员史蒂夫·卡瑞尔、克里斯蒂安·贝尔、瑞安·高斯林和杰瑞米·强主演，那么你可能知道迈克尔·伯里是谁。这位前斯坦福大学神经学住院医师在互联网早期通过在线发布股票投资想法而声名鹊起。</p>
</div><p>His ideas were so good that he eventually left the medical field to launch his own fund. Prior to the Great Recession, Burry correctly bet against the housing market, making hundreds of millions in profits for his fund, Scion Capital. Now, Burry runs another fund called Scion Asset Management, which happened to sell nearly all of its stocks in the first quarter, while also buying put options. Did Burry just pull off another &#34;big short&#34; trade? It certainly looks that way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的想法非常出色，以至于他最终离开了医学领域，创办了自己的基金。在大衰退之前，伯里准确地对房地产市场做空，为他的基金 Scion Capital 赚取了数亿美元的利润。现在，伯里管理着另一只名为 Scion Asset Management 的基金，而这只基金在第一季度几乎卖掉了所有股票，同时也购买了看跌期权。伯里是否又一次成功进行了&#34;大空头&#34;交易？看起来确实如此。</p>
</div><h2>Burry timed the tariff-induced sell-off perfectly</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯里完美把握了因关税引发的抛售时机</h2>
</div><p>Burry never runs too large of a portfolio, typically holding about a dozen stocks, plus or minus a few. In the first quarter, he sold nearly all of his holdings. He had been quite bullish on China, owning large Chinese stocks like <strong>Alibaba</strong>, <strong>Baidu</strong>, <strong>JD.Com</strong>, and <strong>PDD Holdings</strong>. But after selling these stocks, he also purchased put options on these names. Put options are similar to call options but in the opposite direction, essentially betting that a stock price will decline. Burry also purchased put options on <strong>Nvidia</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯里从不持有过大的投资组合，通常持有大约十只股票，可能多几只或少几只。在第一季度，他几乎卖掉了所有持股。他曾对中国持相当乐观的态度，拥有阿里巴巴、百度、京东和 PDD Holdings 等大型中国股票。但在卖掉这些股票后，他还购买了这些公司的看跌期权。看跌期权与看涨期权类似，但方向相反，基本上是在押注股票价格会下跌。伯里还购买了 Nvidia 的看跌期权。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTg2MjcvcGVyc29uLWNvbXB1dGVyLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F818627%2Fperson-computer-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Now, keep in mind that the 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission only shows us Scion's positions at the close of trading on March 31. We have no idea at what point during the first quarter Burry sold or at what price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，请记住，向证券交易委员会提交的 13F 文件仅显示了 Scion 在 3 月 31 日交易结束时的持仓。我们不知道伯里在第一季度的哪个时点卖出了这些股票，或者以什么价格卖出。</p>
</div><p>However, it's quite possible that Burry saw rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China and decided to get ahead of a potential marketwide sell-off caused by tariffs. If this was the case, then Burry pulled off another &#34;big short&#34; trade and timed it perfectly because the market absolutely collapsed in early April after President Donald Trump's &#34;Liberation Day,&#34; falling nearly 20% from highs made in February. Nvidia, at one point this year, traded 30% lower and was down much more from highs made during the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，伯里很可能看到了美国与中国之间日益紧张的贸易关系，并决定提前应对可能因关税引发的市场整体抛售。如果是这样的话，伯里成功进行了另一笔&#34;大空头&#34;交易，并且时机把握得非常完美，因为在特朗普总统的&#34;解放日&#34;后，市场在四月初绝对崩溃，从二月份的高点下跌了近 20%。今年某个时点，Nvidia 的交易价格下跌了 30%，而且从年内的高点下跌得更多。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia not only got hit by the trade war but also after the Trump administration placed export restrictions on certain semiconductor chips to China. Nvidia does a substantial amount of business in China, but the stock has recovered a lot since the U.S. and China announced a 90-day pause on higher tariff rates against one another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 不仅受到贸易战的影响，还因为特朗普政府对某些半导体芯片对中国的出口限制而受到打击。Nvidia 在中国的业务相当可观，但自从美国和中国宣布暂停相互提高关税的 90 天后，股票已经恢复了很多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a4313e2f647ae5f25c657a135344d461.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Interestingly, Burry's lone remaining long position is the multinational cosmetics company <strong>Estée Lauder</strong>, which is down over 50% in the last year (as of May 16). Scion actually doubled its position in the company in the first quarter. It's not uncommon for Burry to take long positions in deep-value stocks like he did with <strong>GameStop</strong> right before the meme stock blasted into orbit in what turned into an epic retail trading frenzy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，伯里唯一剩下的多头头寸是跨国化妆品公司雅诗兰黛，该公司在过去一年中下跌超过 50%（截至 5 月 16 日）。Scion 实际上在第一季度加倍了对该公司的持仓。伯里在深度价值股票上采取多头头寸并不罕见，就像他在 GameStop 爆发成一场史诗般的零售交易狂潮之前所做的那样。</p>
</div><h2>Is Burry going long-term bear?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯里是要转向长期看空吗？</h2>
</div><p>We really won't know the answer to this question until we see Scion's 13F for the current quarter sometime in July. However, it's quite possible that Burry was only short-term bearish and saw the trade war coming. Burry has done this before. In the second quarter of 2022, right after the Federal Reserve began its intense interest rate hiking campaign, Scion also sold all of its stocks except one. By the third quarter, Scion had begun accumulating stocks again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们实际上要等到 7 月份看到 Scion 当前季度的 13F 文件，才能知道这个问题的答案。然而，伯里很可能只是短期看空，并且预见到了贸易战的到来。伯里以前也这样做过。在 2022 年第二季度，正当美联储开始其激进的加息行动时，Scion 也卖掉了所有股票，只留下了一只。到第三季度，Scion 又开始重新积累股票。</p>
</div><p>It would, of course, be quite impressive if Burry sold all of his stocks in the first quarter and then bought the dip after the market sold off intensely right before Trump announced a pause on elevated tariff rates. I wouldn't put it past the legendary investor. Burry could also be more long-term bearish, as he studies economic data closely, which indicates a potential slowdown in consumer spending and the overall economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，如果伯里在第一季度卖掉了所有股票，然后在市场剧烈抛售后买入，正好在特朗普宣布暂停提高关税之前，这将是相当令人印象深刻的。我不会对这位传奇投资者感到惊讶。伯里也可能更加看空，因为他密切研究经济数据，这些数据表明消费者支出和整体经济可能放缓。</p>
</div><p>I think the big takeaway is that we don't quite know how Burry is positioned for the rest of the year just yet in terms of being bearish or bullish. However, it definitely looks like Burry pulled off another &#34;big short&#34; trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为最大的收获是，我们还不清楚伯里在今年剩余时间内的看空或看多立场。然而，伯里显然又成功进行了另一笔&#34;大空头&#34;交易。</p>
</div>

After Nearly Dumping His Entire Portfolio and Buying Puts on Nvidia, Did Famed Investor Michael Burry Just Pull Off Another "Big Short?" It Certainly Looks That Way.

- 迈克尔·巴里在第一季度几乎卖掉所有股票并购买看跌期权。  
- 他可能预见到美中贸易紧张局势导致市场下跌。  
- 巴里目前的唯一长期持仓是雅诗兰黛，过去一年下跌超过 50%。

在几乎清空整个投资组合并购买英伟达的看跌期权后，著名投资者迈克尔·伯里是否又成功进行了另一次 “大空头”？看起来确实是这样